Four is a magic number

Four was a magic number in today's employment situation report. The household survey reported employment growth of roughly four hundred thousand, average hourly earnings (you know, the burger flippers and auto makers getting killed by the housing market) rose a higher than expected zero point four percent month on month, and the unemployment rate came in at a much lower than expected four point four percent.

Now, the 'playa haters' will no doubt say that employment is a lagging indicator, and that even if it isn't, golly gee wasn't manufacturing employment weak. The obvious rejoinder is that the prior data was revised up (again), with the August-September employment figures revised up by a total of 139,000 jobs. The tin foil hat brigade may cry 'electoral conspiracy', but if you think the game is rigged then there is no point even playing. Macro Man is more than willing to bet that, in a year's time, the Q3 GDP figure will end up being revised to show growth higher than 1.6%. Any takers?

The bond market has obviously fallen through the stop level, and a fresh 100 lots was sold at 107-30. The stop for this poisition is set at 108-15, just above the prevailing level at the time of the NFP release. The EURJPY offer has missed getting filled by 2 pips so far...such is foreign exchange. Macro Man is tempted to sell out his DAX puts but wants to see the US market actually put in a recovery before doing so. A weekend's worth of decay is the price he pays for a higher degree of conviction.
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