The sub 50 Chicago PMI has prompted the 109 stop loss on the short Treasury position to get filled at 109-01. Fortunately, short equities an...
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'Tis the season
December 1 is always a significant day chez Macro Man, as it marks the first day that holiday music is played on the stereo. Macro Man full...
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Tidy up time
Well, the good news is that the bond short avoided being stopped out by one tick, as the TYZ6 high yesterday was 108-31. The bad news is th...
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Adding to $ short
Macro Man buys another 10 million EUR at 1.3144. Voldemort is reportedly bidding below that level, and barriers at 1.32 beckon....
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Awaiting confirmation
Yesterday saw the S&P halt an impressive winning streak, as the index registered a decline of more than 1% for the first time in 95 trad...
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DAX/SPX ratio spread filled
Macro Man bought 100 SPH7 at 1400 and sold 170 GXH7 at 6384.
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Judgment Week
The importance of this week in guiding financial market trends for the rest of the year and possibly beyond cannot be overstated. The raft o...
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Mind the gap
The USD gapped sharply lower in the Asian opening, a relative rarity in foreign exchange. Although the buck has retraced much of its loss ag...
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Whither the dollar? Reply to a poster
Is this the big dollar downmove? Well, that is what I am wrestling with. While the dollar's price has changed, that is a necessary but n...
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FX explosion!
Ranges have finally broken in FX, with EUR/USD surging above 1.30. Macro Man was filled at 1.3005 on his 10 million stop loss. He will now...
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Turkey Day
As Americans prepare to settle into their annual orgy of food and televised sport, financial markets are surprisingly (and irritatingly) vol...
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Dollar downtrend?
Currencyland has risen from its long slumber today as the dollar has gotten creamed against most of its G10 counterparts. While most curren...
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Limp out of EUR/JPY
Macro Man will attempt to leg, rather than limp, out of the EUR/JPY 'hedge' by buying $12.5 million USD/JPY at 116.80 and then biddi...
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Chinese whispers
As the holiday season moves swiftly towards us, the noise-to-signal ratio in financial markets approaches infinity. The level of frustration...
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Random shots
What would you rather be: a financial market trader or an American turkey? The lack of action in these markets is so dire, Macro Man is swi...
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Macro Man wants your view
At the risk of embarrassing himself by displaying the dearth of readership of this (admittedly young) project, Macro Man would like to solic...
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An honest man’s assessment of US equities
It’s hard to believe that we are almost at Thanksgiving already. For such an irritating year (in terms of the collapse of volatility, May ex...
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S&P riskie
Bought 50 Dec SPZ6 1425 calls at 4.45 Sold 50 Dec SPZ6 1375 puts at 6.3 Strange things are afoot when housing starts collapse and bonds bare...
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The good, the bad, and the ugly
Yesterday saw a little bit of good (bonds cratering despite an incredibly dovish CPI figure), a fair amount of bad (the broad equity melt-up...
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Harry Potter and the FX reserve managers (Why is there no volatility? Part II)
The portfolio had a good day yesterday, almost in spite of itself. Goldcorp had a glaring earnings miss and metals traded on the back foot, ...
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Why is there no volatility? Part I
Macro Man is back in the saddle and pleased tHat the resource bets have compensated for the execrable performance of the bond short. The po...
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It's elementary!
Consider the following: 1) Global bonds are once again strongly bid. Is it central bank liquidity, growth fears, or a short-killing coc...
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Friday morning joke
Q. What do you get when you invite a bunch of central bankers together in Frankfurt? A. [EXPLETIVE DELETED] Macro Man's buddies are at...
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Sell $2.5 million OIH at 140.40
The 142 offer looks out of bounds, so might as well take the windfall gain while it still exisits.
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Thursday bullet points
* The OIH looks set to open through the 140 offer for $2.5 million. Macro Man moves the offer to 142, but will go to market an hour after t...
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Whip it real good
The soundtrack of the day in financial markets is being supplied by Devo, singing 'Whip it.' The bond market continued yesterday...
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A faint whiff of sulphur
So bond markets across the world go super bid (-5 bps in US and Europe, -6 in UK) on no news as the dollar mysteriously sells off. This com...
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A confederacy of dunces
Well, today is the day that the US electorate will (delete as appropriate) throw the bastards out/let the bastards in and bring sense to Was...
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Is the yield curve forecasting a recession?
Macro Man was unsurprised to see a substantial discounting of Friday’s employment data on the basis of a) the loss of employment in the manu...
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Four is a magic number
Four was a magic number in today's employment situation report. The household survey reported employment growth of roughly four hundre...
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Balancing Act
Markets are now finely balanced between pricing a soft versus hard landing in the US and, by extension, the world. As yet, no decisive conc...
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Pin the tail risk on the donkey
Markets appear to be approaching put up or shut up time. Bonds are trading close to top of the recent range, with a deep inversion to cash ...
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Chicago (Economy) Bears?
Well, October didn’t finish too badly. A late rally in oil (and the OIH), plus an excellent performance from the new Goldcorp position kept ...
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