Monday, December 07, 2009
Well, that payroll figure put the cat amongst the pigeons, n'est-ce pas? A headline figure close to zero, the best household figure since late '07, and an unemployment rate that knocked on the door of single digits: what wasn't there to love?
The short answer, of course, was the impact on your author's P/L, where his wretched run sadly continued. He is one one of those miserable stretches where he feels like he cannot buy a win; even formerly reliable strategies seem to have turned against him, knives drawn.
And so it came about last night that Macro Man wearily set himself down on the couch in front of the TV, hoping for a little escapism by watching some NFL with his father-in-law.
Now, just before Thanksgiving, he wrote a little piece that compared to sports to finance...in that that case, the undeniable existence of "too big to fail."
Sadly, last night brought about fresh revelations about the linkage between sports and finance, as his favourite team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, dropped another excruciating game to extend their losing streak to four.
The ephinay, as it were, centered not on the last month or so, but rather how Macro Man's peformance seems to have tracked that of the Steelers for the past several years. In 2005, Macro Man had his best year at his previous shop. The Steelers won the Super Bowl. In 2006, Macro Man had his worst year at his previous shop; the Steelers slumped to a 0.500 record and missed the playoffs. In 2007, Macro Man rebounded with a good but not great year; the Steelers made the playoffs but fell in their first game. And last year, Macro Man had a very good year at his new shop, and the Steelers once again claimed the Lombardi Trophy as Super Bowl Champs.
Now, the hallmark of Macro Man's 2009 has been the knee injury that he suffered in February. Strangely, one of the Steelers' (and indeed the NFL's) best performers, Troy Polamlu, has also been sidelined for most of this season with a knee injury.
And so, when the Steelers' once-vaunted defense when into their patented "Swiss Cheese" formation against the execrable Oakland Raiders, Macro Man had a foreboding of doom for whatever flamingos rremained in his portfolio. Sure enough, EUR/USD has confirmed the break of both the trendline and the 55 day moving average that bulls have keyed on for the last several weeks.
Now, Macro Man isn't fatuous enough to suggest that there is actually some sort of Vulcan mind-meld going on between himself and 53 rather large gentlemen in the city of his birth. But their twin struggles of late provide confirmation that in trading, like sports, the margin between victory and defeat can be very thin....well, at least if you are playing a fair game.
And so, it looks like the Steelers' season is, for all intents and purposes, over. With just over three weeks left in the year, Macro Man's is too, more or less; there's not enough time to regain the heady heights of his high water mark, at least not without gambling recklessly.
You still have to play the games, of course...but at this point in the season, both Macro Man and the Steelers should be doing so with one eye on next year.