My, How Times Have Changed

Thursday, December 03, 2009

OK, let's get this over with. No, Macro Man cannot confirm that the reason the USD fell so hard overnight is because Elin Woods asked for a bid in $500 million USD/SEK before she went to bed last night.
Seriously, what does it say about financial markets when equities surge after the close, apparently on the story that BAC will pay back $45 billion of TARP funds, when the news came out during yesterday's New York session? Peculiar, to say the least. In any event, every man and his dog has SPX 1121 on his radar, which is the 50% retracement from the crack-smoking subprime 2007 peak to the cyanide-swallowing 666 lows in March of this year.
Note the negative divergence of the last few months (as the index makes new highs, momentum does not.) Actually, on second thought, don't look at it at all....it will probably cost you money. Macro Man did a little portfolio review last night, and was surprised- but not very much- to discover that his hit ratio this year by strategy has been a paltry 33%. Fortunately, a lot of the losers were swiftly ejected from the book, but still...no wonder it's been such a frustrating year for him.

Anyhow, today could be quite momentous, as two of the most important men in finance take the stage....for very different reasons. While the ECB will not change rates today, Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to provide at least some guidance as to the ECB exit strategy...if only by clarifying whether the forthcoming one-year LTRO will be at a fixed 1%, indexed to the refi rate, or with a penalty fee. Really, the choice is between the first two...and assuming the ECB doesn't move rates for another 6-9 months it should be largeyl irrelevant for currencies.

Not necessarily so for fixed income, where the market will look for guidance on the normalization of EONIA (and thus, euribor.) There seems to be a school of thought that this is likely to happen in Q2; ERM0 is pricing in euribor of 1.2% currently, which would represent a "normal" spread to policy rates.

Somewhat strangely, the market is then pricing in a sequentially smaller quarterly rise in rates each quarter for the next two years. In other words, it seems to be pricing in more rate rises in H2 of next year than in H1 of 2011. From Macro Man's perch, the reverse would appear more likely. Similarly, there's nothing to stop the ECB from nudging EONIA higher at the beginning of next year, so the less than 15 bps priced into March looks a bit too low.
In Washington, meanwhile, Ben Bernanke will testify at his re-confirmation hearing in the Senate today. In the Greenspan years, this process represented nothing so much as a papal audience, but my....how times have changed.

Krishna Guha notes in the FT that Bernie Sanders has raised the bar for Bernanke's confirmation through a procedural measure that now requires him to attain 60 votes. Macro Man was in college when Sanders was first elected to Congress, and remembers how anomalous it was to see a Socialist- a Socialist!- elected to the House of Representatives. My, how times have changed indeed.

Anyhow, given the fact that while Wall Street has the money, Main Street has the votes, BB looks set to come under the cosh from all directions today. "Record Goldman Bonuses" and "Record U6 unemployment" make uncomfortable bedfellows, a fact that the likes of Chris Dodd are likely to press home with vigor.

While Bernanke's public speaking has improved during his tenure, it's still not great, so he's likely to come across as pretty defensive. Whether this derails the risk asset orgy remains to be seen, of course. On the basis of what Macro Man has seen this year, he gives it a one in three chance.....

Posted by Macro Man at 8:30 AM  

57 comments:

I have greatly enjoyed certain aspects of this blog for some time now. The type of intellectual discussion and thinking is very rigorous and enlightening, for me, at least. However, I feel that it lacks a certain trading angle which I would like to see more of.

I have begun to find the intellectual arguments a little boring and the constant repetition of "risk assets have to go down", "who would buy gold here", "who would sell the dollar here, it is such a crowded trade", "inflation, what inflation?", even as gold, the S&P 500 and pretty much every other risk asset continues to hit new highs and the dollar new lows.

As convincing as the arguments may be, they haven't really made any money over the past few months.

So, for me at least, I will probably dip in less and less to this blog as it appears quite biased to me, with very little counterpoint to the usual mantras of "risk assets are overvalued, everyone else is an idiot if they can't see it!".

Take it easy and good luck to you all.

thetrader said...
10:18 AM  

Searched for Macro Man on google --

www.macroman.co.in

Anonymous said...
10:27 AM  

the Tricheur has to talk down the EUR.. now the Japanese r
making noise, if the ECB stay silent they will be left holding
the bag, and then Trichet risks a political backlash. even if
he doesnt think the EUR level is dangerous, politicians will
not stay silent, and will threaten the ECB. i dont think Trichet
& Cie. want to take it that far.. part of the ECB's independence
comes with an implicit understanding that they dont p/ss off the
politicians in the Eurozone too much.. letting the Euro go up
while many central banks are making noise abt excessive strength
in their currencies, is not going to go down easily. maybe im
wrong though, Trichet & Cie. have managed to defy logic in the
past (last year's rate hike)

but i feel that with everyone waiting for hawkish comments, we may get something a bit different.. ?

spagetti said...
10:55 AM  

thetrader, you hit the nail on the head, there is (and has been) only one trade for the past year or more.

Overlay just about anything with the S&P and guess what, you get the same chart!! It beggars belief.

What are you going to buy? What are you going to sell against it? You either go risk, or you go risk off, that is the ONLY debate, and here we are debating it.

Aaah well, ya can lead a horse to water...

Steve said...
11:11 AM  

"Note the negative divergence of the last few months (as the index makes new highs, momentum does not.) Actually, on second thought, don't look at it at all....it will probably cost you money."

This time, I actually did laugh out loud. So true.

Patrick said...
11:18 AM  

Re: Bernie Sanders--they are all socialists now--Krugman's headline that the job of the government is to create jobs generated remarkably little outrage among the free enterprisers in Washington. What are you trying to say, Lassie? There are no free enterprisers in Washington? Or is little Timmy trapped down the well again?

But What do I Know? said...
11:39 AM  

MM
A strong uptrend can run much further than you can afford to short and still appear to be losing mom using most mom indicators. In such a mom chart all we are really told is that the broad tide is becoming gradually more sector selective which isn't totally useless info to have.

Anonymous said...
12:29 PM  

MM if you wouldn't mind I'd be interested to hear your comments on what Trichet has to say today, I have not been able to follow this area as closely as I would like and am not sure what pepole expect vs what Trichet will deliver.

Cheers

Steve said...
1:40 PM  

As a frequent reader, acolyte and occasional commenter it's probably obligatory to chime in on the "so what" comment from thetrader. Each to their own of course but I happen to enjoy and benefit from the wide-ranging discussion. A great deal. Please keep on keepin on.
On the subject of trades - sometimes it's a good thing to know why the magic works. And right now the only game in town is RiskOn and flamingo passing. Which, as we all mostly agree, that's not well grounded in reality. Which makes it extremely vulnerable to any disturbances. The market's reaction to Dubai, which in and off itself, wasn't that important per se, is the same kind of warning shot that the Shanghai surprise of the Spring07 (an 8% sudden drop) that caught everybody by surprise. That the markets kept running the bull until Oct07 is more confirmation than not. Or, in summary form:
Weak Recovery => Poor Job Creation =>
Sustained Low Rates => Dropping Dollar =>
Carry-driven Rally Across All Asset Classes =>
Poor Fundamentals + Rising Risks = Fragile Running Rally

And in long form:
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2009/11/markets_in_a_policydriven_econ.html plus
http://llinlithgow.com/bizzX/2009/11/thanksgiving_surprises_gdp_to.html

dblwyo said...
1:42 PM  

MM:

It is indeed interesting when fiscal conservatives on the far left and far right seem to be aligned against those in the centre. In some ways this comes down to whether one wants to choose truth or denial.

thetrader:

The reason the discussions are somewhat repetitive is that the growth phase of every bubble, mania or phase of overvaluation of assets is always the same steady process ("climbing the wall of worry"), while the descent is usually somewhat more rapid.

Anyway, thanks awfully for your comment. Enjoy your risk assets and congratulations on having made some money. Please do drop in from time to time and have a nice day. Now, would you care for a doughnut to go with that hubris?

leftback said...
1:54 PM  

I'm not sure that I showed hubris by my comment but whatever.

In fact I think the majority of posters here show a certain degree of arrogance and belief in their opinions regardless of the market proving them wrong again and again.

I am actually quite humble, willing to recognize when I am wrong and quick to admit it.

thetrader said...
2:07 PM  

Well, I can only assume that white Euribor is a big ol' flamingo, because I can't see any reason for ongoing weakness in the strip (ex ERH0, natch) given the comment that they are not trying to push EONIA higher.

Macro Man said...
2:09 PM  

thetrader is the market right? Was it right at 1575? Or at 666?

The point that I tried to make above (but didn't) is that normally macro traders love to be involved in all sorts of markets, relationships, etc. Having half a dozen uncorrelated strategies at once is the holy grail.

But that ain't possible at the moment, and the implications are huge. VaR, for example, completely underestimates risk.

We are in uncharted territory, no one knows how the hell this will evolve. I was following a scenario based on Japan of the '90s and alas so far it has been less than perfect--though, nb, the Nikkei had a half dozen blockbuster rallies along the way to implosion.

But if you can't get your hands around this fundamental issue, however you want to define it--risk, inflation vs deflation, etc--then you have no chance of getting anything else right. You have no way of handicapping the various strategies that go into your book.

Anyway, I think you're leaving for the wrong reason, if you do, and I hope you don't. Most of us here appreciate other points of view, we need them.

As for hubris, this is my worst year ever. I suck. There ya go.

Steve said...
2:27 PM  

I just think people need to set aside their views of "what should be happening" and their distaste of gov intervention, because it is clouding their judgment. It may be the lamest recovery money can buy, but its happening. Look at, for instance, retail sales up 3.1% yoy in November. Or remember how everyone said that auto sales would revert back to some horrific sub 10mm trend post cash for clunkers? Well auto sales have continued to increase and are now up 20% or so from the bottom. GM is going to build 75% more cars in Q12010 than it did in Q12009. What impact do you think that is going to have up and down the supply?

Ian said...
2:44 PM  

Agreed with Steve that this year has been a very humbling experience, first in the duration of the descent to 666, and then in the longevity of the present "bull market" - but a bad day, week or even year doesn't necessarily mean that one's overall philosophy sucks.

Avoiding the BIG losses and managing portfolio risk has been the most important factor in the last few years. Keeping losses small depends on one's ability to see both sides of all trades, at all times. Which MM tries hard to do, in my opinion.

leftback said...
2:50 PM  

Thetrader: I think everyone's got their risk asset(s) of choice in their book but they're all moving up together (and are being trimmed/reduced/becoming lower conviction) hence it's a bit dull to talk about.

Our Man in NYC said...
3:06 PM  

ISM non-mfg not very growthy, sort of reflects what you see and hear in the US small business world. There are quite a few indications that holiday sales will be soft - the pumping is starting to lose effect.

The curve steepener seems to be retreating rapidly after touching 3.40% on the 10y briefly this morning.

Now we sit around all day and wait for the jobs report tomorrow....

leftback said...
3:10 PM  

thetrader:

You have to distinguish views on the economy from views on the market. The economy is going to suck for years. But, as we all know, the market is only modestly correlated with the economy, and can go its own way for extended periods.

Bears are right on the economy, and will eventually be right on the market. The question is how much money they will have lost before the turn comes -- and how much money momentum followers will lose when the turn appears.

PJ said...
3:21 PM  

I think that part of the source of disagreements around here is that there are investors with different objectives and time horizons. If you're a trader, and you weren't "risk on", the market has proven you wrong this year. If have longer term objectives, and you are trying to implement some kind of long term macro overlay, market noise sends a much weaker message, and convictions matter more. Neither is right or wrong, it is just a matter of differing perspectives, based on differing objectives.

PPM said...
3:27 PM  

I hope MM takes all of thetrader's criticisms and files them in the recycle bin.

First, its not MM's job, nor commenter's job, to spoon feed specific trades to readers.

Second, people who give specific trades worry me. There is no single "correct trade" -- even if we all agree on the macro view. The best trade for your portfolio versus mine are going to be very different - correlations, concentration of risks, existing portfolio level gamma, etc.

Third, several other commenters have already pointed out that just about everything has been positively correlated this year. So if you were chasing beta (in whatever market) -- your choices were literally risk on / risk off

And for those of us that are macro oriented traders -- we are all trying to foresee the *next* macro trend, hopefully before the broad market does, so debating things like asset class value, inflation versus deflation, and central economic planner meddling is the bread and butter of what we all do.

Even when I disagree with other commenters (which is much of the time), I still learn from their rebuttals. Sometimes they solidify my views, sometimes they point out a risk to my views that might be unlikely but still should be considered.

If everyone on the blog (market) has the same biased view -- that would be a huge flag to me. So it would be useful data to have.


BTW -- I don't recall "thetrader" being a frequent commenter in recent months. Actually I don't recall your ID much at all.

If you don't like the quality of our comments, then stop being a sponge off all our ideas and contribute some of your own

The blog has the most value when we get lots of viewpoints. Step up to the plate buddy

Gary said...
3:31 PM  

I don't think I mentioned anything about spoonfeeding trades. Although, MM did use to post trades and that was an interesting part of the blog for me as a trader. But I understand why he no longer posts them and that is fair enough. It was ballsy enough to post them in the first place.

I have actually commented off and on in the past but more as an anon poster. It is a little intimidating to post my views here as it seems that pretty much everyone disagrees with me quite strongly!

I guess I am more attuned to what the market is doing as opposed to my fundamental views, which can quite often be wrong, so perhaps I don't get off on the intellectual discourse as much as the other participants on the board.

I also didn't mean to denigrate the quality of the comments as they are often very well thought out and described as is MM's analysis. As a trader, I guess I get a little put off by all the talk justifying a move opposite to what is actually happening. I focus more on seeing what the market is doing and reacting to that, despite what my view might be.

Of course it is fitting that risk assets are now being sold off just after I made my comments!

It is probably my error, maybe I need to find a blog more attuned to my style of trading.

Still, all kudos to MM for what he does and it is an excellent blog, maybe just not right for me.

Peace out

thetrader said...
4:06 PM  

Thanks for let me know who is the Wood girl :) cheers!

Anonymous said...
4:10 PM  

Check out spx chart from march lows...
every sideways consolidation has first resolved lower before rallying to new highs...
currently in longest sideways pattern to date.... c'mon pattern follow through!

Anonymous said...
4:12 PM  

ANON 4.12
check out the BPNYA that tells you that whilst the most estern indices have been going sideways in recent weeks the market internals have been getting weaker with fewer and fewer stocks remaining on a new high buy signal ..now what do we call it when we have weak 'continuation' patterns forming ;)

Anonymous said...
4:18 PM  

Gary, excellent points..

Perhaps the very BEST thing about entering a New Year in 2010 is that these recent debates will have to be resolved quite soon. It is hard to believe that the present stalemate can last much longer*.

Either we will see a sell-off in Treasuries and another melt up in equities/HY, OR we will see a lot of people raising cash and taking profits across the board after booking their performances in 2009.

Holding a substantial position in dividend-paying stocks and IG corporates means one can consider this conundrum without constantly losing sleep.

(* Is the Pain Trade therefore a continued grind sideways into the Spring? LB sure hopes not)

leftback said...
4:43 PM  

LB
If a sideways trade stays that way for long enough you can be assured it will travel far eough afterwards to get some worthwhile return on it and that would be a welcome relief after the last couple of months.

Anonymous said...
5:00 PM  

Back in high school, there was always that annoying rich kid who would not do the work and would copy off other kids tests. His daddy would buy off the principal and the Board of Education and the rich kid would run off to the golf club.

Fast forward a few years, daddy's rich kid arrives to work in daddy's Porche and decides he still doesn't want to do the work. Debating inflation and overcrowded trades and the future of the dollar is ... well its *work* and work makes thetraders head hurt

Its so much easier to copy off the other kids test papers. Wait for those macro traders and fundamental geeks and nerds to pour through all those charts and data.

Once they do all the work, thetrader can swoop in, copy their trades (lets call it trend following, because plagiarism sounds bad) and POOF!!! Rich boy makes money and rides off into the sunset.

All this rampant cronyism is what is wrong with the financial markets. Lets hope thetrader goes and copies off some other kids work

Just Like High School said...
5:14 PM  

Ok, I'll bite.

Interesting analogy - have a complex about high school?

Your opinion is just the type of arrogance I am talking about. Trend following, as it goes, has probably been one of the most consistently successful trading strategies over the past thirty years. Are you calling all trend following funds lazy? That is an arrogant response to a consistent track record of success. Just because it doesn't make sense to you, doesn't mean it is not a viable investment strategy, rooted in mathematical properties of financial markets.

Also, if you look at the most successful traders/ fund managers, they all talk about market action as being vital to their investment process ( Kovner, Tudor Jones etc ), so having a strong respect for the market is key.

And actually, if I, or anybody else was copying trades from this board then I probably would have been short risk all year and lost alot of money, so your analogy actually is nonsense.

thetrader said...
5:28 PM  

Of course copying off the smarter kids test works... no one disputes that

As for Kovner, Tudor, etc -- they are not trend followers and they definitely do their own homework. But once they do the work, they are mindful that they might have got a few questions wrong -- so they try to learn from the other kids

Mindlessly following, parroting, or copying the current trend in the market is lazy.

Complaining on a blog that the smart kid isn't letting you see his paper to copy off of is arrogant

Just Like High School said...
5:33 PM  

thetrader, CTAs (pure and simple trendfollowers) have performed miserably over the past decade. Many of the more famous ones got wiped out. John Henry for example went from $5bio under mgmt to $500mm. Last year they had a good run but this year--no soup for you.

Steve said...
5:39 PM  

Let's just assume that trend following funds are lazy. If you were really a trader, that wouldn't bother you. Your job is to consistently make money, however you can. That is how you get paid. If you are an analyst then the story changes. Then analysis becomes very important and not doing that analysis is lazy as that is your job.

And again, I can't see where I complained about smart kids not letting me see their papers?

thetrader said...
5:40 PM  

John Henry has had a bad few years, granted. But most trend followers have done fine over the past decade. I'm not sure what indices. funds you have been looking at.

thetrader said...
5:44 PM  

My take is that thetrader is not looking for trade recs, per se, but perhaps more of a critical evaluation of an underlying bearish view that has been wrong for eight months.

And that's a fair enough comment- my abysmal hit ratio and mediocre returns this year are testament enough to what's gone wrong.

I will say, however, given that it's my "name on the door", so to speak, is that I tend to write about the things that irritate/frustrate me or that appear to defy explanation.

That I have managed a modestly positive return this year despite a poor winning percentage indicates a modicum of trading nous, if I can flatter myself a bit. And I've not always been bearish- hell, my third post of the year was called "I heart risk"...which just goes to show that my timing's been lousy all year.

Still, I find it less interesting to write about the stuff that goes right than the stuff that goes wrong. So that's naturally generated a consistently equity-sceptic view in this space that has not always been reflected in my real-world portfolio.

Macro Man said...
5:47 PM  

thetrader you are wrong, the ones that have survived are much more sophisticated than simple trend-following, they switch regimes.

Trendfollowers have been decimated. Get over it.

Steve said...
5:51 PM  

Well, I am looking at indices and trend following funds. They have done just fine.

Which well known funds specifically have gotten wiped out?

thetrader said...
6:02 PM  

Whatever.

You don't think J Henry hasn't been wiped out?

Steve said...
6:09 PM  

This is all about time horizons and volatility.

BEARX hasn't exactly been the most successful fund over 5-10 years but if you measured it over the right 6 month period in the winter they would have looked like geniuses. Obviously that's absurd.

Likewise the guys running HY credit, commodity, EM and Tech equity funds with leverage all look brilliant today, but that's based on 6 months - if you go back over 5-10 years it's been a rocky road.

You have to keep thinking about risk, and that's what makes the slow turns (and churns) the most frustrating periods of all.

leftback said...
6:20 PM  

Just to diverge a bit here since I'm mathematically inclined and this comment from "thetrader" raised my curiosity.

"Just because it doesn't make sense to you, doesn't mean it is not a viable investment strategy, rooted in mathematical properties of financial markets."

What mathematical property are you referring to?

Anonymous said...
6:49 PM  

Trend followers are trying to capture the leptokurtosis (fat tails) of price distributions. Also, the property of serial correlation once a trend is in place.

Also, within the money management parameters, compounding is often utilised to maximise portfolio returns. For example, by betting a constant percentage of equity on each trade.

thetrader said...
7:14 PM  

here is one well known trendfollower that has done at least better than being "decimated" : http://www.dunncapital.com/WMA_2008.pdf
Clearly, Henry has massively underperformed his space.

Anonymous said...
7:21 PM  

Speaking of fat tails...
Seen the Mexican Peso today? Holy Mole, Macro Man!

(we have had a deficit of punning since the Vietnamese currency discussions)

leftback said...
7:25 PM  

As many others have commented I absolutely love the discussion here and would definitely feel an information and opinion void if this blog were to suddenly terminate.

Steve @ 2:27 – very well said

Just Like High School – just FYI. Tudor does allocate at least some portion to trend following strategies. Within what he calls Quantitative Macro (to which he allocated 13% of total capital) he writes, “The trend following models contributed to most of the gains in the quarter.”
To your point, he is not primarily a trend follower. And to thetrader’s point, such a strategy does deserve at least some credibility…if for no other reason than being blessed by a capital allocation from the likes of Tudor.

The trader – you have remained admirably composed amid the onslaught and, thereby, gained some credibility. imho

On a different note. Does anybody else feel like the “buy mega-cap multinationals” theme is being beaten to death by the analysts? I look at our portfolio and that is basically how we are positioned…PG, PEP, NKE, EMR, V, etc. It felt like an original idea, say, 9 months ago, but now I am feeling nervous. Any thoughts?

der Tillman said...
8:11 PM  

Late sell-off in New York, Macro Man.

Either someone got a hold of an ugly payrolls print or we persuaded thetrader to dump some risk assets....

leftback said...
9:26 PM  

By far, the most beaten up idea in the world is that sovereign debt is risk free.

Academics (many of the same ones who assured us that this crisis could never happen and that LTCM could never have a problem) have stated the absurd notion that governments can always "just raise taxes"

Well, the historical evidence says otherwise. For openers, the largest economy on Earth (the USA) was created by a bunch of people who told England's King George exactly where to stick his royal sceptor and his tax ideas.

Tax evasion is the national past time in countries ranging from Mexico to Italy. Other Europeans like to talk a big game, but the recent tax issues in Luxembourg and the very existence of Monaco prove reality is very different from rhetoric.

Even before the recent crisis, contractors here in the US gave two prices: one if you needed an invoice or paid via tracable means; and a much lower price if you paid in cash.

The facts are: history shows there is no way the US, UK, Japan, or much of the EU could realistically raise taxes to pay their debts.

That doesn't mean they won't pay lip service to raising taxes -- it just means that it won't happen. Many will choose not to work under higher taxes. The black market will flourish even more so than now.

After seeing the disaster of California, many Americans in other states are starting to realize that government needs major restructuring.

Obama probably doesn't have the money to bail out California -- and even if he did the flood gates would open and he would have to bail out all 50 states, which is definitely impossible.

The printing press is the only practical way for these governments to avoid collapse.

Sorry to the academics with their heads in the clouds, but sovereign debt is not risk free.

The "sudden" realization of this simple and obvious truth is the story of the next 8-10 years

Anonymous said...
9:28 PM  

maybe bernanke dropped the ball and mentioned he was ready to address bubbles ... whatever it takes to get through the finish line even if its lying ... again ... and again

9:37 PM  

"Tax evasion is the national past time"

Past time is history. You mean pastime.

Now it is well past time that LB went down the apples-and-pears and across the frog-and-toad to the rub-a-dub, pausing only to make a call on the dog-and-bone. Evenin' all.

leftback said...
9:47 PM  

Countries from Argentina to Israel to Russia have all defaulted in part or in full on their "risk free" sovereign debt.

For anyone who bought UK debt 100 years ago -- they were absolutely decimated in purchasing power terms even when (not always) they were "repaid" in nominal terms

And that is before all the governments (including the "free market" USA) started confiscating gold

Anonymous said...
9:48 PM  

The late sell-off saw some nifty volume, too!

Our Man in NYC said...
9:57 PM  

I haven't done the math(s), but I have a hunch that (given that market movements are roughly symmetric) unless you have a lot of skill, you can expect a hit rate of less than 50% if you tend to cut your losses and ride your profits. The thinking is that you always cut minor losses, so miss those that might have come good, whereas you let winners run longer.

I am not a professional speculator, but as a regular voyeur of this forum, I suspect that Macro Man is right, and will himself be the perfect indicator of when to go risk off when he either gets bullish or gets carried out like Tony Dye. Mr Market has that kind of wicked sense of humour, hence the bottom at 666!

RebelEconomist said...
10:01 PM  

the trader- MM- Gents
the frustration comes from fiat
why is credit stronger now than pre-crash while we are still losing jobs over 10+%? come on... inflation/deflation??... wrong, bc 10 yr is 3.38%

it all comes down to equity to gold ratio. equities through this "Bull mkt" has left no one richer. equities are deflating to global wealth. simple as that.

apples to oranges

thetrader relax... you started it
(also great trend followers like yourself should love a onesided website, where if it changes its mind, its time to flip short!! - duh!)

mm- awesome site - congrats on +p&l

mpm

Anonymous said...
10:12 PM  

Leftback 9:26 I chuckled out loud.

There was something that crossed the tape today that the "White House" was expecting the unemp rate to rise tomorrow, or some such. Spus came off about 3 points but rallied back and hung up there for a while. But I do think that inasmuch as you can attribute market moves to X, Y, or Z, it was that "WH" comment that did it.

Steve said...
1:39 AM  

Der Tillman near as I can tell Anon 10:12 has the right idea, in a "real" world with fiat everything in flight, the big sturdy multinats with some currency diversification and a decent dividend will outperform. Two components: real assets (factories, bldgs, etc) and regular cash flows. The former goes up with gold etc, and the latter goes up with zero rates.

It'll work til it stops working. I would guess their betas will be considerably higher for the near to medium term.

Anonymous said...
1:44 AM  

mpm,

I am pretty relaxed, actually. You're right though, I did start it. Although, I'm not sure why you think I'm a great trend follower.

As for the blog or the comments therein being a contrarian indicator, I thought of that a long while ago...

thetrader said...
6:52 AM  

Re. Elin Wood: Yesterday I read a comment from the Swedish golf plyer who introduced Elin to Tiger. His point of view: Next time I hope she uses a driver instead of an iron 3.

Anonymous said...
11:52 AM  

mm
on monday could you drop in a chart of implied vol vs realized vol
i find it interesting that a few days after realized vol rose over implied vol gold/dollar both cracked...
may be a worth while look

mpm

Anonymous said...
10:46 AM  

mm-
im convinced we are going to have a major crack soon...
dubai may have been covered up as no big deal, but i think they are the ones behind the big vol/gold/crude pressure
if the mid east slams crude down to raise cash, it will send brazil & eurozone into the tubes. domino effect. resulting in a massive dollar squeeze.
just think about it.
risk assets cant afford a crude down move... these employment numbers are just a retail olive branch.
ignore them.
maybe im a nervous nelly... but common, vix at 21 has to make you think twice - everyone is awfully complacent here if you ask me

mpm

Anonymous said...
6:44 AM  

Paid $700,000 in my Liberty Reserve from GleenManagement
We belong to The Gleen-Management Company. Our company established in January 2007. Now we have been on the online market.As you sometimes know about trading currencies might be a difficult to earn from those markets. So we thought our offer shall help you to easy going on the currency online-investment markets.
Don't be panic to invest with us because of we are professional investors who had many experiences in currencies markets. We believe in a good management of our team and to bring you're going to your goals!
Investment offers: 3 products Investment Products Amounts(USD) Terms Profits
Junior 250 - 5,000 800% after 12 hours 800%
Senior 5,001 - 50,000 900% After 6 hours 900%
Retirement 50,001 - 250,000 1000% after 1 hour 1000%
I deposit $70,000 and Received $700,000 in one hour
Date: 2009-11-29 00:16
Batch: 236970XX
U3657601 (gleenmanagement)
Amount: $700,000.00
Memo: Gleen-Management

If you deposit with my link,I guaranteed your money are 100% safe.my email:iraracopm@gmail.com

my referral link
http://www.gleenmanagement.com/?U8298438
http://www.gleenmanagement.com/?U8298438

You can find the site listed on
http://www.yahoomsngroup.com
http://www.payinghyiponline.com
http://www.makecurrencyonline.com
http://www.hyipfunding.com
http://www.libertyreserveforex.net

100% guaranteed paying No risk No lost.

Make Money Fast said...
7:19 AM  

Post a Comment

Disclaimer

This commentary is written for entertainment purposes only. Nothing you read on this site is advice or an inducement to buy, sell, or hold any real or hypothetical investment, nor should you construe it as such.