Friday, December 18, 2009

Market Christmas Carols

At long last, it's come: Macro Man's last day in the office of 2009. It's been an eventful year, both personally and professionally, and your author is looking forward to turning the page and getting stuck into 2010. Before that happens, of course, he would be remiss in not maintaining a tradition and sharing a couple of market-themed Christmas carols:

God rest ye merry, gentlemen
Let nothing you dismay
For quantitative easing
Is here to light the way
To save us from last year’s mistakes
When we were gone astray
O tidings of comfort and joy
Comfort and joy
O tidings of comfort and joy

From Washington to London
Beijing and Zurich too
The printing presses cranked right up
And they did it all for you
With S&P’s at 6-6-6
‘Twas the only thing to do
O tidings of comfort and joy
Comfort and joy
O tidings of comfort and joy

“Fear not then,” said Bernanke,
“Let nothing you affright
We’ll buy some bonds and MBS
And put this sucker right
And make sure AIG pays out
At par without a fight!”
O tidings of comfort and joy
Comfort and joy
O tidings of comfort and joy

The punters at those tidings
Rejoiced much in mind,
And threw away their sell tickets
Then told their broker “mine!”
They bought up every piece of junk
That they managed to find
O tidings of comfort and joy
Comfort and joy
O tidings of comfort and joy

Now let us all sing praises
To those who saved the day
And kept bleating about green shoots
‘Til bears all ran away
No need to worry ‘bout next year
And who is going to pay
O tidings of comfort and joy
Comfort and joy
O tidings of comfort and joy!

You better watch out
And give a big cry
When the market’s a rout
I’m telling you why
Santa Claus is coming to town
He’s making a list
A second, a third
To bail out those who own a few turds
Santa Claus is coming to town
He sees you when you’re losing
He knows when you’ve been bold
He’ll give you an interest-free loan
To go out and by some gold!
Oh! You better watch out!
And give a big cry
When your P&L’s red
I’m telling you why
Santa Claus is coming to town
Santa Claus is coming to town

Although daily service will be interrupted ovr the next couple of weeks, Macro Man will still be keping an eye on things and may well scribble down a few thoughts from time to time. Happy Holidays to all readers and good luck in 2010.


CV said...

Marvelous MM ...

A merry Christmas to you and yours. Good luck in 2010 to you too. Looking forward to hear more from you in the new year and over the Christmas if and when you feel like it.


Anonymous said...

Happy holidays, MM

Great blog. Hope things are better for you in 10.

Anonymous said...

Best wishes for 2010 and thanks for keeping the blog alive during 2009.

Anonymous said...

As long as we are on the Christmas Carol theme, I suggest (relevant):

Anonymous said...

Thanks for all your valuable opinons this last year. Best wishes for the next...Have a Happy Holiday, and a great new year


Matador said...

hey MM,
Merry xmas to you and your family. Once more thanks for the blog.

You recently put on some interesting books you were reading and the usual suspects added on their picks. Anyone remember the date so I could go back and have a look? I am trying to pick up a book for the holiday season and I remember seeing some real gems there.

Steve said...

Happy holidays MM, many thanks for your insights, time, labor, and providing a forum.

On gilts from y'day I agree with your inflation analysis but do think that the re inflation the structural similarities are greater than the diffs even if the headline numbers are so divergent at the moment.

Ya gotta love this: You went short a few days ago and made money; I went long yesterday and made money. Viva the marche!

But What do I Know? said...

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you and the other Macros, MM.

Anonymous said...

I hope you didn't lose too much this year with your bearish views.

The year is not over and there is still some good money to make with the "windows dressing" and easy moneny to take from traditionnal managers.

I have really appreciated your contributions.

At worst, you can re-convert as a good writter.

Merry Christmas to you and your relatives.

Anonymous said...

Have a great holiday MM and all... it has been a good year for sure, 2010 is likely to be much more of a roller coaster than 2009 ("normalisation" fueled by the QE printing press).

In fact, 2010 is likely to be like the morning after the office xmas party, when you find that photocopying an innappropriate body part, printing $2trn copies, and distributing to the world... might not be such a good idea. Funny at the time, but the clean up hurts like hell.....

Dom said...

at this festive time of year
spare a thought and well a tear
weep it well for all those folk
who's indiscretions left them broke

past performance was no guide
and stock returns began to slide
over-leverage guarantees
a sharp decline in equities

or so we thought at deep march lows
when dow was down with broken nose
the s&p was looking sick
and nasdaq couldnt rise a tick

but then what hapst to all the gloom
an elephant came into the room
dont mention that nowt all has changed
the nasty bankers can be blamed

reflate the bubble - blow it good
QE and hope can be its food
defer the debt a few more years
let the tories bare the sneers

santa rallies all who hear
CNBC's faux-christmas cheer
have fun, enjoy the last leg higher
O-10 we'll be stuck in the mire......

Macro Man said...

Very nice!

Anonymous said...

While it sounds like 2009 was not so good for the portfolio or the knee, it was another great year for the blog. Thanks for all your insights. Best wishes to you and your family.

Anonymous said...

Have a great festive break Macro family and fellow commenters, and pray we may even get a white xmas!

B4 you go could you or anyone please explain "delta in non-monetized issuance in Gilts dwarfs that of JGBs next year."
Are we talking QE or inflation? (Or relative 2010 issuance Y53 trln ~£360bn vs £220bn?)


Colin said...

Enjoy your festive break MM and every success in 2010.

Appreciate the education you provide.

tyaresun said...

Happy holidays to you and your family.

leftback said...

Don't look now, MM, but Swanny and Jimmy A are keeping the Saffers at bay at Centurion. NO, not OUR Saffers, the real Saffers... confusing isn't it?

Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to one and all. 2010 is going to be more fun than a sack full of monkeys.

Anonymous said...

Happy holidays.

Thoroughly enjoy your blog

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the blog. Gold Is Going Down Forever.

Nic said...

Merry Christmas Everyone!
OGDF I hope

I-Man said...

Irie Christmas to Macro Man, and to all Good Vibes...

Unless you're an inflationist.
JK... kinda.

SteveH said...

MM: Many thanks for another year of illuminating comments. An excellent festive season to you and yours.

leftback said...


if only we could "peak" into the future ... all "shale" be revealed in 2010. Perhaps the dollar will "buck" the trend amid sovereign defaults, it's all "Greek" to me.

Anonymous said...


Have a Merry C-mas & a Happy&healthy New Year to you and your loved ones.

And thanks for sharing your insights.


Steve said...

Make it stop LB

Macro Man said...

JL, I refer to the change in issuance less the change in CB purchases. In 2010, UK PSNBR = £2 bio less than 2009. BOE Gilt buying will be ~£190 bio less. In other words, the BOE took down more than the entire auction calendar this year in the UK. Next year, they'll take down close to nothing. That's a huge change, and one that I think will push up Gilt yields substantially.

Our Man in NYC said...

Merry Christmas all...

Bear said...

May I wish you a very safe and happy christmas for you and your family. Thankyou for your insights and comments.

After leaving the market and going solo I miss the daily banter and insight that comes from a dealing room. Again, thankyou for your insight.



Anonymous said...

keep up the good work .. enjoy the banter in the comments section as well..


Our Man in NYC said...

And hurrah for Mike Wallace keeping his feet down the entire time yesterday evening!

Now the Giants D just need to remember to that pass rush = good this evening!

Anonymous said...

have a good time with family--will say the widow maker got me nice and good to finish off the new year--i only run prop cap these days which lets me use deeper stops than when i ran a fund and all that is ment is that being short spx and long eur usd cost me even more--ughh nice x-mas present

Nemo Incognito said...

In Buenos Aires for xmas Macro Man - all the best. Had a meeting with CB governor.

leftback said...

The elves are reporting that Santa may be returning to the North Pole with a lot of inventory, MM. Bringing his weather down from the Arctic was a bad idea... meanwhile 2s10s has been breaking to new highs.

All the best.