Monday, December 14, 2009

Christmas Comes Early

Ho ho ho!

Christmas has come early (OK, not this early) today, courtesy of that well-known proponent of Yuletide cheer....Abu Dhabi! The emirate has lent a cheeky $10 billion to Dubai, which has funnelled the dough to Dubai World, enabling them to redeem the infamous 12/09 Nakheel bond (which was trading in the mid-50's on Friday) at 115.52. Even the 2011's, pictured below, have nearly doubled.
Ho ho ho! Macro Man can only wonder if the Emir of Abu Dhabi was secretly long a bunch of villas here and figured lending 10 yards was a cheaper solution than looking for the bid....

So it's happy days, right? Spoos are flirting with their highs of the year, Eurostoxx are up a percent, and hell, even Japan's Tankan was better than expected. Hmmm....not so fast, my friend. The risk rebound has been selective, to say the least. EUR/USD has barely budged and FX carry is actually lower on the day (AUD/JPY is down 0.75%.)

And while gold has at least tried to rally, poking its head back above $1120/oz, oil couldn't even be bothered to put in the effort; at the time of writing, prompt crude is down 40 cents on the day.
Perhaps this is because of the Abu Dhabi loan; on an exclusive basis, Macro Man can provide a short video of the Emir's conversation with the head of ADNOC over the weekend:



Perhaps Christmas really has come early for those tired of the naive "risk on/risk off" regime. A bit of quality differentiation would be a welcome Christmas present indeed.

7 comments:

haruspex said...

would be nice to know the volume traded at distressed levels... and who bought it (my old "spoofing" theory).

PJ said...

Not quite sure it's quality that's separating winners from losers here ...

L/S Equity Guy said...

Wow - what to make of the sudden reduction in comment volume? Did everyone go on vacation?

Steve said...

L/S, here, bored, frustrated, let's get on with 2010 mode.

I-Man said...

Silence is contagious in moments like these...

der Tillman said...

One equity strategist from the street closed out a conference call last week saying that he is finding a lot of clients and counterparts taking the next 2 weeks off. And when he thinks about 2010, he feels it is important to position now for the positive catalysts that are going to hit in the beginning of 2010.

I agree in that I feel the larger 'risk' for equities is to the upside.

L/S Equity Guy said...

I agree risk still to the upside, especially in financials.