A Quick 20 Questions

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Between now and the end of 2012.  

Which global stockmarket would you be longest of?

Which global stockmarket would you be shortest of?

Which Soveriegn bond would you be longest of? 

Which Sovereign bond would you be shortest of? 

Which corporate bond would you be longest of?

Which corporate bond would you be .. no forget that .. too many dogs out there. 

Will any corporate bond yields also have gone negative?

Which commodity would you be longest of?

Which commodity would you be shortest of?

If you are short of Euros what catalyst would you need to buy them again?

Where will Chinese RRR and depo rate be at year end?

How far will UK yearly rainfall have deviated in % from average ?

How far will US yearly rainfall have deviated in % from  average?

Will the UK coalition still be in place? 

Wil France have needed a bailout?

Will the US elections matter on a global level?

Will the SNB still be maintaining the 1.2000 EUR/CHF peg?

How many bankers be in prison  post Liborgate?

How many journalists be in prison post Leveson?

How many (more) politicians be in prison?

Will John Terry be in prison? 

Posted by Polemic at 1:27 PM  

11 comments:

Philippines
India
Mexico
France
SLM
(Short Aluminium or Iron Ore sector, acelor mittal)
3M and Monsanto and 2% for 10 years pretty close to 0
Not long commodities
Short wheat (soon, not yet)

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2:32 PM  

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Bloggingbooks said...
3:07 PM  

FWIW:
Which global stockmarket would you be longest of?
US
Which global stockmarket would you be shortest of?
India
Which Soveriegn bond would you be longest of?
US
Which Sovereign bond would you be shortest of?
Australia

Which commodity would you be longest of?
None
Which commodity would you be shortest of?
Gold
If you are short of Euros what catalyst would you need to buy them again?
Will not buy before end 2012. 3 countries out (North or South) would be a good catalyst, though.
Will the UK coalition still be in place?
Yes
Wil France have needed a bailout?
No
Will the US elections matter on a global level?
Yes
Will the SNB still be maintaining the 1.2000 EUR/CHF peg?
Yes
How many bankers be in prison post Liborgate?
0
How many journalists be in prison post Leveson?
0
How many (more) politicians be in prison?
0
Will John Terry be in prison?
Who is John Terry?

Vasastan said...
3:47 PM  

Which global stockmarket would you be longest of?
Vietnam, Russia, Spain, Brazil.
Which global stockmarket would you be shortest of?
Australia
Which Soveriegn bond would you be longest of?
Brazil or Spain
Which Sovereign bond would you be shortest of?
Australia or Germany

Which commodity would you be longest of?
Corn and Soy Beans
Which commodity would you be shortest of?
Bears
If you are short of Euros what catalyst would you need to buy them again?
Not short Euros, nor long Euros.
Will the UK coalition still be in place?
Yes
Wil France have needed a bailout?
No
Will the US elections matter on a global level?
No
Will the SNB still be maintaining the 1.2000 EUR/CHF peg?
Yes
How many bankers be in prison post Liborgate?
0
How many journalists be in prison post Leveson?
0
How many (more) politicians be in prison?
0
Will John Terry be in prison?
Nah, playing next to David Luiz is bad enough!

Leftback said...
4:03 PM  

Which global stockmarket would you be longest of?
Spain

Which global stockmarket would you be shortest of?
Russia

Which Soveriegn bond would you be longest of?
Spain

Which Sovereign bond would you be shortest of?
France

Which corporate bond would you be longest of?
Intel

Which commodity would you be longest of?
Long dated US natgas

Which commodity would you be shortest of?
Gasoil

If you are short of Euros what catalyst would you need to buy them again?
Recession in emerging markets

Will the UK coalition still be in place?
Yes.

Wil France have needed a bailout?
No

Will the US elections matter on a global level?
No, either winner looks to be be reasonably competent and level-headed.

Will the SNB still be maintaining the 1.2000 EUR/CHF peg?
Yes.

How many bankers be in prison post Liborgate?
A half dozen.

How many journalists be in prison post Leveson?
None

How many (more) politicians be in prison?
Free Yulia!

Will John Terry be in prison?
He will be knighted.

Anonymous said...
8:36 AM  

Which global stockmarket would you be longest of?
USA, more specifically large-cap non-financials.

Which global stockmarket would you be shortest of?
Australia.

Which Sovereign bond would you be longest of?
None of them.

Which Sovereign bond would you be shortest of?
3yr ACGBs.

Which corporate bond would you be longest of?
BBB-ish US non-financials.

Which corporate bond would you be .. no forget that .. too many dogs out there.
Any one with "China" in the name.

Will any corporate bond yields also have gone negative?
No, but J&J and WMT might come close.

Which commodity would you be longest of?
None of them, not even NG.

Which commodity would you be shortest of?
Iron ore.

If you are short of Euros what catalyst would you need to buy them again?
A cocked pistol pointed at my head.

Where will Chinese RRR and depo rate be at year end?
Dunno where exactly, but we'll see at least one depo rate cut and two RRR cuts before year end.

How far will UK yearly rainfall have deviated in % from average ?
How far will US yearly rainfall have deviated in % from average?
NFI to either of these.

Will the UK coalition still be in place?
Yes.

Wil France have needed a bailout?
Probably not.

Will the US elections matter on a global level?
Not really, but by October everyone will start throwing around terms like "house effects", and every single bank will have added the latest Intrade odds and FiveThirtyEight's electoral-college histogram to their morning market wraps.

Will the SNB still be maintaining the 1.2000 EUR/CHF peg?
I genuinely do not know. Not touching CHF with a ten-foot pole right now.

How many bankers be in prison post Liborgate?
Somewhere in the single digits. It won't be zero, but it won't be zillions.

How many journalists be in prison post Leveson?
Journos? None. Proprietors and editors? Plenty.

How many (more) politicians be in prison?
Not as many as there should be.

Will John Terry be in prison?
Who?

Josh said...
11:29 AM  

The popularity of shorting Indian markets here is quite intriguing. I understand that valuations are not on the really cheap side and domestic policies clearly leave much to be desired but wouldn’t you say that one of the biggest beneficiaries of a commodity bear market is India? From that perspective, it feels like within the BRIC complex, India is probably the best positioned.
I am itching to go long the Indian rupee so am looking for someone to talk me out of it!

Anonymous said...
12:26 PM  

Will the US elections matter on a global level?

No, either winner looks to be be reasonably competent and level-headed.


I am going to guess that you're not an American.

Bob Dobalina said...
1:15 PM  

Which global stockmarket would you be longest of?

Not too many good candidates here. Maybe Spain (if it falls another thirty percent AND they leave the euro).

Which global stockmarket would you be shortest of?

So many choices. Australia and Russia top my list.

Which Soveriegn bond would you be longest of?

Australia. The government is pursuing austerity there come hell or high water (most likely both).

Which Sovereign bond would you be shortest of?

FRANCE!

Which corporate bond would you be longest of?

Don't do those.

Which corporate bond would you be .. no forget that .. too many dogs out there.

Ditto.

Will any corporate bond yields also have gone negative?

It's possible, but I just don't think there is enough liquidity in ANY corporate bond for that to happen.

Which commodity would you be longest of?

Gold. Negative real interest rates plus further loss of confidence in currencies equals a higher gold price.

Which commodity would you be shortest of?

Agricultural products (led by wheat). Don't speculators realize we can make more of this stuff?

If you are short of Euros what catalyst would you need to buy them again?

A price in the seventy-five cent range would do it.

Where will Chinese RRR and depo rate be at year end?

The RRR is on its way below ten percent again (probably won't get there by the end of the year, though), and the deposit rate is headed to one percent (again, not by the end of the year).

How far will UK yearly rainfall have deviated in % from average?

Don't know much about the U.K. climate, so I will throw out a guess of twenty-five percent.

How far will US yearly rainfall have deviated in % from average?

Much of the U.S. is still getting near normal rain (certainly not the agricultural belt, though). I actually think the deficit will end up at only around ten percent or so.

Will the UK coalition still be in place?

Will the coalition ever make any moves that might remove them from power? You have your answer there.

Wil France have needed a bailout?

By the end of the year, more likely than not. Eventually, with one hundred percent certainty.

Will the US elections matter on a global level?

They always do (unfortunately).

Will the SNB still be maintaining the 1.2000 EUR/CHF peg?

I don't believe their willingness to buy 60 billion USD worth of euros every month will last that long.

How many bankers be in prison post Liborgate?

This is a joke question, right? Zero, of course.

How many journalists be in prison post Leveson?

Zero.

How many (more) politicians be in prison?

Zero.

Will John Terry be in prison?

I guess this is the real joke question (and for those asking who he is, wikipedia is your friend).

Anonymous said...
2:30 PM  

Which global stockmarket would you be longest of?
US
Which global stockmarket would you be shortest of?
CANADANORWAYAUSTRALIA
Which Soveriegn bond would you be longest of?
Norway
Which Sovereign bond would you be shortest of?
France
Which corporate bond would you be longest of?
Samsung
Which corporate bond would you be .. no forget that .. too many dogs out there.

Will any corporate bond yields also have gone negative?
Probably .. not
Which commodity would you be longest of?
Depends on the weather
Which commodity would you be shortest of?
Oil
If you are short of Euros what catalyst would you need to buy them again?
Just covered my position

How far will UK yearly rainfall have deviated in % from average ?
0%

How far will US yearly rainfall have deviated in % from average?

0%

Will the UK coalition still be in place?
Yes
Will France have needed a bailout?
No
Will the US elections matter on a global level?
Definitely
Will the SNB still be maintaining the 1.2000 EUR/CHF peg?
Yes
How many bankers be in prison post Liborgate?
0
How many journalists be in prison post Leveson?
3
How many (more) politicians be in prison?
0
Will John Terry be in prison?
He will be in Anton Ferdinands wife. LAD!

Kristian said...
10:03 PM  

Which global stockmarket would you be longest of?
Mexico

Which global stockmarket would you be shortest of?
Australia/Canada

Which Soveriegn bond would you be longest of?
Australia/Canada

Which Sovereign bond would you be shortest of?
France

Which corporate bond would you be longest of?
MSFT

Which corporate bond would you be .. no forget that .. too many dogs out there.

Will any corporate bond yields also have gone negative?
No

Which commodity would you be longest of?
Natty

Which commodity would you be shortest of?
Copper

If you are short of Euros what catalyst would you need to buy them again?
Exit(s)

Where will Chinese RRR and depo rate be at year end?
17, 3

How far will UK yearly rainfall have deviated in % from average ?
--

How far will US yearly rainfall have deviated in % from average?
--

Will the UK coalition still be in place?
No

Will France have needed a bailout?
No

Will the US elections matter on a global level?
Yes

Will the SNB still be maintaining the 1.2000 EUR/CHF peg?
Higher peg

How many bankers be in prison post Liborgate?
0

How many journalists be in prison post Leveson?
0

How many (more) politicians be in prison?
0

Will John Terry be in prison?
No

12:56 AM  

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