Dr. Aghi is in Da Room

Friday, July 27, 2012

Can you hear it? Well pump up the volume ..! Can ya'll hear me at the back ?   I  say Hey!
And yeah, ya better believe it 
'Cos I'm gonna blow the house down ..
'Cos I am the doctor .. 
I'm the Doctor and I got my own beats 
What I'm gonna say'll  blow you outta your seats
With my plans of rescue and heroic feats

Ya see if yields in Spain are causing some pain
And spreads all over have gone insane  
F**k'in up transmission is the catch we'll use 
Prove responsibility lies in our shoes

'Cos Transmission streets are our home hood 
And we will do what we can, whatever we should.
It's in our mandate see, this mandate here
That you gave us yourselves, plain and clear

And with our mandate here it's clear to see 
We're free from the shackles of Germany 
So FRO Buba, as we SMP, 
Or EFSF up the periphery.

So back to your bunkers yee hawks of doom,
I'm a man on a mission,  gonna rock this room. 
We gonna party on down with our bloods down south 
Gonna save the nation with me and my mouth.    

Gonna cure this cold, me and my ECB
Using  ESM as a bank is key.   
I'm da man, I'm da doctor, Il Dottore
I'm the man with the cure I'm Dr Aghi !!!

I'm da doctor, I'm da doctor I'm Dr. Aghi
Gonna save the nation with my ECB
I'm da doctor, I'm da doctor, I'm Dr. Aghi
Gonna save the nation with my ECB

You better belieeeeeve me....

Posted by Polemic at 10:47 AM  


ECB with harmony
Mario drop a load on 'em
SMP how can I explain it
I'll take you frame by frame it
To have y'all jumpin' shall we singin' it
S is for Spanish M is for Money scratchin' temple The last P...well...that's not that simple
It's sorta like another way to call a printin'

You down with SMP (Yeah you know me)
Who's down with SMP (Every last shortie)
You down with SMP (Yeah you know me)
Who's down with SMP (All the shorties)

Dee Dee Humberside said...
12:07 PM  

Come on, TMM-- take a view!

Bob Dobalina said...
4:08 PM  

Awesome lyrics!!

Is it relating to a real song? If yes, which one?

ECB council member said...
4:44 PM  

TMM can work wit' dis, "Fuck Wit' Drag Day" ?

Dr Dre and Snoop Dogg

Leftback said...
4:54 PM  

Ecb.. no known real song behind it.. It ust seemed to trip off the tongue this morning. Don t know if it will back-fit anything tho...

Lb.. neat idea. And congrats on yesterdays offerings too

Dee Dee.. nice work!!


Polemic said...
5:14 PM  

The Monday morning quarterbacking has begun early this week. A few people with certain positions (perhaps leveraged and somewhat illiquid derivative positions) are hoping very very much not to come in on Monday and see Spanish yields fall to 6%, perhaps?

Bazooka Skepticism Abounds

Leftback said...
5:28 PM  

Oh and Bob , the view is muddle through. How? If we were sure on that it wouldn't be "muddle".

Polemic said...
5:49 PM  

Mr Market: What do you call a central banker carrying an unfeasibly large bazooka?

Mr Shorty: I don't know, what do you call a central banker carrying an unfeasibly large bazooka?

Mr Market: Call him anything you like, he is still going to stick it right up your arse and pull the trigger.

Leftback said...
6:42 PM  

Left back,

Despite the repeated attempts to go long on bailout hopes of someone ( insert central bank here) buying every bad sovereign credit out there - the fact is that this rally has already happened in fact, we are a good 10-15% off the lows in most markets. And this was driven by short- covering mainly. Now , Draghi has a big mouth but reactivating SMP is the only thing he can do and that's limited relief as we know. The other things are very much off the table, including ESM banking license just because it would be currently illegal. LTRO - with what collateral please? so please enjoy the jawboning but don't forget to fade.

Anonymous said...
6:55 PM  

Yes, that's a common view today, and we certainly understand where that thought process comes from, but we think this isn't necessarily over. First of all there are a lot more synthetic shorts in Heaven and Earth than are dreamed of in your philosophy, including everyone with spread trades (Long German bunds/Short Spanish bonds) on, a variety of exotic derivatives, and all holders of naked Spanish CDS, who were exiting the burning building rather rapidly when last seen.

I would like to take this opportunity to point out that when said CBs do finally choose to pull out the bazooka, you are in mortal danger - not only from said weapon - but also from being clawed and trampled underfoot by desperately exiting Bears. In fact, the mere appearance of a massive bazooka has the potential to return Spanish 10y yields towards, say 6%, even without it being fired.

Let's say that the usual momo merchants notice that everyone is suddenly selling Schatz on Monday morning and start buying Italy, Spain or whatever. It could get messy.

Leftback said...
7:19 PM  


I have to say that this sounds like wishful thinking. First, Apart from leveraged speculators in credit that you think will burn, there is no demand for periphery credit from real money. Maybe because in Sep Spain will ask for 400 bn Eur bailout from Troika and it kind of screws up things. Second ,threat of bazooka is meaningless - even real interventions high last 3 months these days and do zilch for economy, so the shock and awe effect is just not what it used to be. And let's be honest - nobody can save Spain, not ECB, not Germany, unless you believe in miracles. Hope is not an investment thesis.

Anonymous said...
8:10 PM  

No disrespect, but the bear doth protest too much, Dee Dee thinks.

Anonymous said...
8:30 PM  

September is one thing. Thin August markets during the Olympics and under bazooka threats are another. One's longer term view and one's short term trading thesis don't always coincide.

It is clear that there are many political unknowns that lie between us and September. The amount of new debt issuance for Spain this year is not in fact enormous, and one would be wise not to dismiss the activity of the great European Fudge Factory out of hand. It is by no means a foregone conclusion that the world will end in 2012, although I am pretty sure I will die and pay taxes.

Unloved rallies (even those that begin with a great compression of Mr Shorty's goolies) have a way of perpetuating themselves, at least until sentiment extremes abate, which can often take quite a while. Also, if you really think that all of the central bankers in the world can keep their hands off the FX markets while several large economies have a meltdown, then we have a variety of delightful negative yield instruments for you to choose from!

Leftback said...
8:37 PM  

C says'
Nothing of note has happened in any direction.
News forced a short sell without there being actually any new information present ,but it did this at what I thought was the 'wrong' time. Leading into month end followed by a Fed meeting it was always going to be vunerable to a squeeze which in this case was provided by Draghi.
Nothing more significant than that this week other than other than an ongoing lack of intervention following a squeeze like this will be negative for all things risk. Summer market.

Of more interest I was trying to envisage people in Asia with little knowledge of the UK watching the Olympic opening ceremony. Mrs HI on Monday will be telling Mrs Lo be glad we don't work in the UK they treat their workers awfully and don't get sick there because their nurses appear deranged.

Anonymous said...
10:32 AM  

LB just woke from a summer Sunday nap.

He was happily dreaming that the ECB would buy Spanish and Italian debt and that it would be Risk On baby for the rest of the summer as one after the other, CBs and governments piled in with a series of monetary eases or cheeky fiscal stimuli. In a trice, LB had loaded up on more gold than Michael Phelps before he ate the pies and was eyeing Spanish bank stocks as outstanding volatility vehicles.

Oh bugger, LB woke up..... Deutschland saying Nein, apparently pissed off b/c they have no medals yet.

Leftback said...
7:48 PM  

C Says'
In any film ,or story there tends to be a pivotal point where the rounding out of the characters and the buidling of the tension leads to the future of the plot being more transparent as to the ending one foresees. After many chapters in this story each leading to further crescendo in tension I would say we are finally in the pivotal chapter. Our charcters are laid out before us and we simply await that Errol Flynn/Robin Hood moment as he duels on the castle steps with the evil shadow of the 'baddie'. Will Errol Draghi overcome ,or are we doomed to an unhappy ending? This would be a good time to think he had brought a twelve bore to a knife fight ,but exactly where can he find that weapon?
Scriptwriters invitation ,suggest your own ending.

Anonymous said...
11:15 AM  

C Says'
If shorts were last weeks squeeze we probably got late comers bulling into UK resource equties today providing this weeks squeeze.
All looks very contrived assuming an handout from the Fed and well squished if it doesn't happen on a suitably satisfying scale.

Anonymous said...
5:24 PM  

What if they gave an apocalypse and nobody showed?

Leftback said...
5:47 PM  

What IF I grew a third ball?

Anonymous said...
11:57 AM  

LB has been f*cking BOLIVIAN since last Tuesday but thinks it is suddenly a bit Happy Clappy out there, thinking about our risk and we reckon:

1. This week has more down side than up side risk.
2. Bernanke doing nothing at this meeting.
3. Draghi talks bazooka, pulls out water pistol.
4. It's really hot inside this Kevlar body armor.
5. We have had a good week since last Tuesday.

So we will de-risk today and sit out the central bank bingo for now. This week has Sell The News written all over it - before we all start looking forward to the September meetings.

Leftback said...
2:54 PM  

Divergence in FXI and SSE? One has to catch the other?

Anonymous said...
3:33 PM  

Take a look at the components of the FXI ETF and stocks making up the SSE and you'll likely find they do not correspond.....

Leftback said...
3:41 PM  

C Says'
Some times you have to take a guess and mine is this week Europe is more important than the US. Therefore even if BB underwhelms I think on this occasion the ECB will come through and make any Fed shakeout a buy,but again it will be picking your spot. I prefer to do that assuming that any action taken here should be considered early cycle recovery action and of course geographically I'm not that interested in the US right now.

Anonymous said...
9:19 AM  

My guess is that anything ECB have to say will be subject to the laws of the member states and hence not able to be implemented in a sensible time frame. Geithner dropped a very big hint to that effect after his meeting Draghi and Schaeuble.

Selling the news has been so profitable for so long now that it's hard to give it up..... just sayin

Anonymous said...
11:22 AM  

C Says'
"subject to laws etc"
The point I think that Draghi was making is at least in his view he already has a legal remit to act based upon the issues he outlined last week. Moreover I would say it is inarguable that current events have been pricing in a currency event rather than simply a debt default event. If that is so then that belongs to him and the Blundesbank need to find a corner to sulk in.

Errol The Draghi versus The Sheriff of Blundesbank how can I not go for the hero to win out ?

Anonymous said...
12:32 PM  

One can't really stand up against Wehrmacht unless it's winter and he/she is Russian driven by a strong dictator (read leader)

Anonymous said...
1:45 PM  

C Says'
I'm here to educate and "the state of Germany was founded in mid 19th century. Since then, Germany has not won any single war" ,so much for the 'invincible' Germanic myth,pussies for a man like Errol.

Anonymous said...
1:51 PM  

They did win in 1870. And three world cups. That has to count for something, right? Although now that I think of it, they have always lost against Italy when it mattered.

Dee Dee Humberside said...
3:20 PM  

C says'
er no, the Prussians won in 1870,but Germany as a state did not exist at that time.It formed in the aftermath once 'pussy wouldbe Germans' realised they needed the Prussian non pussies !Moreover that was even to beat the French who are renowned as 'lovers not fighters' ;)

Italians of course are both 'lovers and fighers' so when Errol upfronts with his codpiece I expect Jan and mates, who by now are watered down Prissiand ,to go very quiet.

Anonymous said...
3:35 PM  

Since you said mid 19th century, I figured you meant Bismarck onwards. But point well taken.

Dee Dee Humberside said...
4:52 PM  

C Says'
But you did have a point that they have won Worldcup honours on a scale we can only envy.From this I suspect we have some 'ball' substitution going on ;)

Anonymous said...
5:01 PM  

Amps has taken a breather from the market place having decide to spend a month off catching up with his tai chi form, but the recent chatter this week with the upcoming meeting of the fed and ecb has drawn his attention...

The analytical ability of amps is yet to make a serious improvement in his bank account, be that as it may, but he has an idea how things roll in this town.He thinks the FED move may deliberate let the market down for the ecb to produce the stick save....amps wants to bet anyone in size that qe is incepted before eoy.

amplitudeinthehouse said...
5:33 PM  

LB likes the amps scenario for the week and agrees on the QE bet b4 EoY.

Leftback said...
6:15 PM  

Germany track record has something to do with the choice of allies between other things. Italians have shot down only one plane in a WWII and that was thier own one at that

Anonymous said...
6:39 PM  

Amps can not describe how lucky he feels that his staying right out out it all...

ps please we're macro traders throw us another one.

amplitudeinthehouse said...
6:40 PM  

c says'
Amp ,I had also intended to stay out.Indeed I left the portfolio hedged to go off to Italy intending to leave it all alone. Instead I found a veritable basket of opportunities setting up and left a litter trail of limit orders from Pisa to Florence via Lucca.
I have a real problem getting equity bearish when so many people are already positioned for that.When I look at the spread on good grade corporate and what some of these are paying yield completely excluding any notion of growth I have to think t'is nonsense and somebody has got it pretty wrong.

Anonymous said...
7:18 PM  

Nothing is a certainty,but staying out the market seems correct so far....besides, I don't trade that shit.

amplitudeinthehouse said...
7:29 PM  

Nobody enjoys trading Wizard Day. This week is the Tri-Wizard tournament (Fed, BoE, ECB). All we need now is for Voldemort* to get involved.....

...this too shall pass.

* Regular readers will know this refers to PBoC.

Leftback said...
7:40 PM  

C Says'
Fed Flat cannot have been that big a surprise really given they had already moved so recently. Indeed in a sense it's taking one for the team because FED easing halts Euro weakening and they need weak in Europe to support growth.Likewise Fed easing has previously hit dollar hard assets and led to higher input costs on energy etc again what Europe does not need.
Now on top of the above what Europe needs is to know debt yields are going to be (knee)capped and no prisoners taken then we might be getting somewhere.Go for it Errol.

Anonymous said...
7:48 PM  

C says'
US EOD registers no surprise value for the FED so it's down to Errol to vanquish the debt monster.
If he delivers tomorrow nothing could make me happier ,because with so much moneyflow sucked into safe haven it would exemplify that well known hero immortalised by the words "He who dares Rodders,he who dares".

Anonymous said...
9:17 PM  

Amps concurs with recent comments , but his in desperate need of a time out and is looking forward to spending the rest of the month catching up on his tai chi...life's exciting.

ps FED get over it

amplitudeinthehouse said...
10:10 PM  

C Says'
Errol always had a sidekick and Monti's his.Like the snipe yesterday ,“I only wish by the way that all components within the European system of central banks displayed the same degree of respect for the independence of the ECB as heads of governments do,” Monti told reporters."

Without a doubt Monti's equivalent to John Wayne telling Jan "to get off your horse and milk it".

Anonymous said...
10:08 AM  

C Says'
Less a duel to the death with sword held high in victory and more of a "when I've had time to prepare watch out". Hard to see more risk momentum coming from that.Too much in there of what we have seen before so I would think the market will want to see it put to the test before committing.I know I will so trimming time.

Anonymous said...
1:57 PM  

Unfortunately, it looks like old-school Errol took a cue from Hollywood practices: take advantage of good box office to set up the sequel. Errol 2 in your closest cinema, soon

Dee Dee Humberside said...
1:58 PM  

Spare a thought for our SNB friends, who probably have had quite a busy lunchtime, preparing for the next movie.

Dee Dee Humberside said...
2:02 PM  

No problem here,had a good summer run and happy to go back on wait and see with money to show for my efforts.That's the beauty of being a single operator,you can just turn on a dime without consultation ,or weight that makes action difficult.
The SNB as you say has a different problem.

Anonymous said...
2:14 PM  

Draghi translated "I have a bazooka, and I know how to use it.... but unfortunately my German friends will not let me take the safety off. So for the time being, here is a water pistol. Look, I told you we can provide liquidity".

Sell the Draghi jawboning, and sell the US jobs number ahead of time b/c tomorrow is a Friday and we all want to go down the Shore. Sell it down to the 50 dma and buy it back next week.

ES 10y screaming northwards. Still, LB can't help the feeling that the Draghi put is in place.

Leftback said...
2:48 PM  

Knife Katchers = Knight Kapital

Anonymous said...
3:03 PM  

Knife Catchers: "No Kevlar for Knight Crapital".

Leftback said...
3:09 PM  

From classic Errols, seems like we are moving on to a different scenario, with Verbal Mario at the helm.

"The greatest trick the Printers ever pulled was convincing the world they didn't exist.

And like that, poof."

Dee Dee Humberside said...
4:19 PM  

Super Mario sitting back here, waiting for Mr Shorty to load up with Spanish and Italian CDS into the weekend before they begin the OMOs?

Leftback said...
4:55 PM  

LB, buying EWP or TEF anytime soon? Thnx for all your(other commenters') input since MMs seem to on Olympic vacation.

Anonymous said...
5:40 PM  


Watch the short end of Spain and Italy implode before any interventions take place - in September. As I said, threat of intervention just isn't what it used to be because by now everybody figured out that it just delays the inevitable. Tradable rally - that's when I see the money, Mario.

Anonymous said...
7:48 PM  

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,"Market..missed the point". QE in Eu is coming..http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/10009312/

Anonymous said...
8:01 PM  

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