The "B" Suffix.

Monday, July 09, 2012

What a load of rubbish out there at the moment. TMM apologise for the overuse of the "Bollocks" word but we think it deserved.

NFPblx - Neither too bad to guarantee QE3 nor too wonderful to kick it out of court. QE3, like oil, is the buffer in the solution of market pricing. Or the big brass balled governors on old steam engines. When it looks as though the economy is slowing oil is sold and QE3 expectations pick up supporting the downside. When things pick up QE3 expectations fade and oil shoots higher limiting the upside. Should this point to ranginess?

Euroblx - STFU is firmly in place and we are sadly reminded of the subject of many of our previous posts that are as apt today as they were when posted. "Plus ca change" and "plus ca change" is the problem - to the point that TMM wonder if benign neglect is becoming part of policy. Rather than being held accountable for positive actions towards a disintegration of Europe, an alternative, as any student who does not want to be doing their course but hasn't the balls to jump, or as any employee who really wants a career change but can't face walking away from a good income will know, "doing no work" will lead to the decision being taken away from the incumbent with any resultant loss of position being attributable to the decision of others, despite the incumbent being bloody useless. How much easier for countries to justify their departure from the Euro (and any ensuing sufferance) on the actions of other countries and not themselves? Politicians only survive if they can move the problem monkey onto someone else's shoulders. Greece are masters of this.

Liborrox - The UK having no other countries to blame for their woes are entrenched in banker bashing, which is fast morphing into political "fantasy banking", where politicians list all the best bits of banking they would like to have in their ideal bank. To TMM it appears that their dream bank is one with many branches providing basic counter services to serve the local community staffed by salaried rather than bonus incentivised staff who know their local customers and are part of the community. Which is all the more surprising because the State had exactly that under their control in the Post Office, where they chose to shut thousands of branches persuading everyone to go on-line. Errrr...

Chinablx - Inflation figures are lower than expected but the big brass balls of monetary policy are going to cut rates pretty hard. Last week's cuts were good but are already suffering from Eurofade as far as the market response goes. However they have more ammo than the rest of the world and so we take a low print inflation figure as good news as far as room for policy response, just as a low inflation US print leaves room for QE.

CHFblx - Racking up the reserves with no change in rhetoric but the waste disposal machine of Euros is looking as though it's getting indigestion. It's going to be one nasty explosion of partly digested Euros if they let that floor go. TMM have been debating internally what the result would be of them doing a supernova last ditch attempt before they give up, say by moving the band UP to 1.3000. How many marginal sellers would appear compared to the raft of stop loss buyers? And THEN give up.

Agriblx - The extreme heat in the US is not only causing the murder rate to rocket but also that of softs. Any chart of stuff that grows in the US is showing rallies over the last 2 weeks that are soon to become realities on the high street. 30% in 2 weeks on wheat? TMM also remember that the Arab uprising was partially blamed on soaring food prices so wheat up and oil down is not a good combination for the Middle East. Does that lead to the Saudi's selling their Gold bullion?

Tennisblx - It's only a game. Seriously, it only seems to matter as it's been decided, like Black and Scholes, that it matters when really it doesn't. It really doesn't and for tennis to become the focal point for UK devolutionary debate is sad at best. TMM doubt that Andy Murray would like to be remembered not as a great tennis player but as the Gavrilo Princip of Scottish devolution.

Weatherblx - At last TMM are allowed to use their hosepipes. The privatisation of utilities may have lowered short term costs and increased efficiencies within the local water companies but TMM do wonder if it has actually created inefficiencies on a national scale. TMM live in a region that is surrounded by full reservoirs with rivers bursting their banks yet, due to the demarcation lines of local utilities, is supplied by a company that relies on aquifers. Under one rulership cross-border water transfer would have been easy. Now the partisan companies cling on to every drop even if they have too much of it, with most of it is in our cellars. Is it possible to renationalise without reunionising?

Olympicblx - Apart from having "winning and succeeding in your dream (fk everyone else but don't let them see that)" rammed down our throats everyday in glory TV marketing, TMM are getting fed up of getting cut up on the roads by gleaming new BMWs clad in 2012 Olympic logos. Please can they contain their Banana Republic Dictatorship status until the event actually starts. As for how the Olympics themselves should be run TMM would like to point you towards their thoughts on sports sponsorship first posted here .

Posted by Polemic at 2:40 PM  


That post is dated july's miracle!

Amplitudeinthehouse said...
5:14 PM  

It's all Bollocks.


Saul Bollox said...
6:49 PM  

B for Bear tomorrow?

B for Bankruptcy? Patriot Coal bankruptcy and some not very clever earnings....

B for Backward Looking data, though, really...

B for Back to Bloody Central Bank Arb?

Leftback said...
10:28 PM  

Go to the Post Office? No people just want their local Lloyds, NatWest, Barclays to be and act like the PO and not have the bells and whistles of investment banking glued on.

Donlast said...
9:48 AM  

This is quite well written. Regular readers will be aware that the ECB is behind the curve in providing monetary stimulus, in fact massively so. These authors make a strong case that the Fed is now also very clearly behind the curve and erring asymmetrically on the side of caution in guarding against non-existent inflation.

Fed Behind The Curve

Readers of Richard Koo, and of Rogoff and Reinhart and students of the Japanese Lost Decades will know by now that in balance sheet recessions, expanding the central bank balance sheet fails to stoke inflation, due to ongoing private and corporate deleveraging. LB has described this as peeing into a bucket with a hole in it.

Nevertheless, CB interventions can elicit transient spikes in commodity prices. These events can be mischaracterized by disingenuous economists and politicians with a variety of misguided austerity agendas, resulting in dangerous delays in fiscal and monetary stimuli. US Congressional gridlock in the run up to the election places the onus squarely on the Fed, as the last responsible adult.

We think that the last two NFP numbers and the drop in US gasoline prices have given the Fed the green light. Even as we type, DX is closing in on a potential double top formation. A break above DX 84-85 would probably unleash more carry trade unwind, so we would not be surprised if we saw hand signals from the Fed soon, perhaps along the lines of Bernanke's 2010 Jackson Hole speech.

Leftback said...
4:35 PM  

If you haven't seen it, another group of dildos in the futures broker industry over here has apparently vaporized customer money. This one is in Iowa. The size of this is much smaller than MF Global, so we are not likely to see much of a ripple effect from liquidation of the positions. It is sobering, however, as the futures traders are apt to be the "smartest guys in the room" always lecturing other punters regarding nefarious banks and the safety of their assets....

Saul Bollox said...
5:35 PM  

SPX kissing the 50 dma here, so those of a technical (and bullish) disposition might expect to see a bounce from around here. TEOTWAWKI fans might see a fall to 1290-1310, initially....

GDX 43 and XLE 65, other interesting levels du jour. DX 83.40-83.54 area of the utmost importance here.

Leftback said...
8:17 PM  

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