Wednesday, February 27, 2008
What's going on with wheat? Macro Man generally tends to avoid mention of the soft commodities, because he frankly has no specialist knowledge and only the most basic of general knowledge- which isn't exactly a formula for investment success.
But still- the recent price action in wheat deserves mention. The CBOT contract for May delivery has risen from $900 /bushel at the end of 2007 to $12.50/bushel as of yesterday's close- a pretty stunning rally by any measure.
But even beyond that, yesterday's price action was pretty stunning. The chart below may not look particularly unusual until one observes the price scale on the right- the intraday range was more than 20%!!!!
At first, wheat was ground up by the forces of profit-taking....until someone or something added yeast, at which point it began rising nicely.
All joking aside, the scale of the year-to-date price move, and particularly yesterday's intraday volatility, suggests that something is going on. So Macro Man puts the question out to those who know more than him about wheat, i.e. those that know something:
What the hell is going on with wheat?