Saturday, February 16, 2008
It's a fairly well-established phenomenon that financial website traffic goes through the roof when markets go to hell in a handbasket. So when Macro Man decided to perform a little analysis last week, even he was surprised by the close link between traffic and equity market activity.
The chart below sets out daily volume in the SPX, depicted in red and shown on the left-hand axis. The blue shows shows daily traffic on this very site, calculated in terms of deviation from trend. In other words, traffic has generally increased since the inauguration of this space a year and a half ago, and that traffic is measured against that upward-sloping traffic trend.
What's interesting is how closely the two series appear to match up; one could even argue that web traffic is less volatile that daily equity trading volume. How long, then, til someone calculates an indicator for financial web traffic that can either confirm a large equity move or show divergences?
Regardless, both traffic and trading volumes suggest that the recent equity gyrations have occured in the context of decreasing interest from the public at large. 'Twill be interesting to see when the next traffic volume spike occurs...