Friday, February 01, 2008

In the books

So January's in the books; suffice to say it wasn't too pleasnat for many people. (Though not, apparently, banks; Macro Man has heard a couple anecdotes of record Januaries for financials.) With payrolls and ISM today, February could start on equally treacherous footing.

The candlestick pattern (whatever it may be called) didn't work yesterday; whether that sets the stage for a more pronounced rally or an even more painful decline remains to be seen.

More later.


Anonymous said...

just a thought but...we first heard of subprime odwn here in feb 07 , may 07 didnt here about it much..we all remember august, then as for an rates trader i cant help but think all this crap (cdos, abcp's) tends to roll quarterly on a feb/may/aug/nov basis...just a theory ok..but me thinks that feb o8 is going to be an absolute nightmare in the short term money market as banks cant fund the cp tat underwrite most of the cdo's/sivs...sell march eurodollars buy march fed funds

mong said...

Anon: you exspect rates for stmm go up in dollar. What about CHF? 1 week libor already up quite a bit.

Quarrel said...

I don't know about the candlestick pattern, but so far today the Chinese buying 12% of Rio Tinto is certainly helping prop up the market..

As you say, busy US day for releases, so plenty of time for it to all turn around.

Ratings folks have been promising to release news on the monolines all week too, and they're running out of week fast.

Anyway, look after the markets. I'm in as much cash as I've been for a long time and a few March 1250 Puts as backup, so sort of hope they don't sky rocket up - but getting married tomorrow then 2 weeks of honeymoon (ok, so I'll have my blackberry, but if there is one time to pay attention to the Mrs, I think this might be it). I sorta hope they go no where much so I can pick up the action where we are now in 2 weeks :)


Quarrel said...


BTW - well done on January. In such times knowing how to cover is the easy part but timing it is hard. You definitely gave us a great lesson on the timing.

My timing was not so good (well, I certainly missed a good chunk of the rally in equities, but would rather be safe than devastated).


CV said...

Grats Quarrel ... :)

As for January, it was certainly a pretty wild ride up and down I feel. I take note of the fact that the abyss is widening very fast at the moment between Trichet and Bernanke and one of them will end up with a lot of explaining to do.


Anonymous said...

lads this is a large money makng chance...the banks/fund managers arent going to tell when they are having a basis now !!!!!!!!!!!bank credit sucks sell depo futures buy central bank credit viva la gold !!

Macro Man said...

Allow me to add my congratulations, Quarrel. Enjoy the honeymoon and trust me- only look at the Crackberry when she's in the shower.