Holding pattern

Are markets going to enter a holding pattern this week?  Obviously, that doesn't mean that nothing can or will happen, but it's a bit more of a comment on the mindset of the marketplace.  Consider the state of play in various major markets:

US:  With the Fed, obviously it's a waiting game, almost certainly until December.    And while both Yellen and Fischer speak this week, it's not like there's been a lot of new news since last week's FOMC announcement to change the picture.  Payrolls isn't until a week from this Friday, and earnings season kicks off the week after that.  Sure, there's data this week, but the "highlight" (Macro Man is struggling to contain a gaga reflex) may well be this evening's first presidential debate between Clinton and Trump.  Maybe if Trump "wins" the debate convincingly there will be a trade to go long Cemex, short MXN....

Europe:  The ECB is on autopilot for the moment, and like the Fed is generally out of the picture until December.  The biggest event on the near-term calendar is Italy's constitutional reform referendum, which the latest polls show as too close to call.   As a reminder, Prime Minister Renzi has said that he will step down should the vote fail; while he's kind of tried to dance  his way around that recently, it seems safe to assume that a No vote would see Italy descend back into political chaos.   While this is admittedly not an unusual state of affairs over the last 70 years or so, it nevertheless would not engender much confidence in certain institutions (cough, Monte dei Paschi, cough).  Maybe the market will feel comfortable enough to deploy risk in either bullish or bearish directions before the vote, though somehow betting on a too close to call election doesn't seem to carry much edge.

UK:  Now that the Tory Party Jeremy Corbyn has won the Labour Party leadership election, it's back to waiting for Godot Article 50.

Japan:   The BOJ has given us quantitative easing with yield curve control, and uh....OK, there you go.  The one thing that Macro Man found somewhat bemusing was the big song and dance made about this in some quarter and surprise registered in others that long end JGBs rallied after the announcement.   Uhhh...maybe the Japanese version of the statement was different from the English one, but there was no explicit mention of long end yield targets, and the only explicitly named measures that could impact long end yields were ones designed to keep them down.  Maybe things will change in the future, but the future isn't now.

China: With the 19th Party Congress slated for next year, it is apparently all about keeping the balls in the air (and stealthily depreciating the RMB) for as long as possible.

Hey, at least we've had some data already- New Zealand's trade balance for August was much worse than expected.   Even that, though, looks to be largely a function of seasonality- for the last few years, the trade balance has reached a local nadir at roughly this time of year.   So while it's nice on the margin for AUD/NZD, Macro Man somehow doesn't think it's enough to jolt the market out of its prospective holding pattern.

 source:  worldeconomiccalendar.com
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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 26, 2016 at 7:53 AM ×

USD is rather soft today, yet GBP is being relentlessly offered.

I'm pretty convinced that the price action of last two Fridays, that we are going to take out the Brexit low of 1.2797 very shortly (1.24-1.25 in the cards).

The short GBP trade was quite crowded, but has been cleaned out somewhat over the last few weeks. Now I think the trade is about to get piled on again.

I think its probably one of the easier trades being offered at the moment.

I'm short GBP/USD at 1.298ish as of today. Making it my core position for now.

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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 26, 2016 at 8:01 AM ×

Brief comment about NZ Trade Data... Yes the deficit was way worse than expected but exports do tend to slow down significantly during fall/winter for NZ exports (I do prefer NZ avocados over the mexican ones - though its harder to find here in the states,ha). Also, car imports showed a decent jump, along with other various consumer imports. On balance, I think it continues to show a strong NZ consumer/economy - far less vulnerable than AUD.

AUD may shine for now with the new governor acting shy about swinging the interest rate bat, all the while RBNZ coming in w/ rather strong dovish signal for November meeting. But I think the long AUD/NZD trade should be kept on a tight leash.

I'm personally looking take the other side and short AUD/NZD when NZD finds a footing again in relation to the USD and how/when gets back to its old ways of chasing yields.

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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 26, 2016 at 8:45 AM ×

Dicey/worrisome overnight price action in SPooz. It's suppose to be a quiet night w/ relative news vacuum.

It's shaping up to be an odd monday for sure.

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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 26, 2016 at 8:51 AM ×

Few of my boys at discretionary side at Tudor was told to derisk/reposition ahead of presidential debate - with race becoming super tight and now Hilary on the defensive, Trump may actually steal the show and markets might not know how to act the following day.

Seems like the commonly cited theme as I make my rounds this morning.

I guess not such a quiet Monday perhaps.

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 8:55 AM ×

DBK collapsing... hahaha let's see how clever the ECB are now.

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Nico G
admin
September 26, 2016 at 10:53 AM ×

FMPM you had to short cable at 1.5, there is nothing left on this trade now but the potential for lots of contrarian pain. I am talking my book as i moved all currencies (USD, EUR and EM) into GBP after Brexit. Why? because the ultra liberal UK kicks ass and will always attract talent. Once Brexit (lenghty) administrative smoke is cleared people will pour into GBP again realising the discount especially vs. USD (post Trump election) and EUR (Europe is DYING).

very very nasty price action across the board so far. DBK slowly going to zero as it should. I think i warned this board two or three years ago on das Bank. Trump annihilating Hillary later today won't help markets either. I don't support Trump but i hate the Clintons beyond reason. Besides, Trump might be the only Western leader with balls since Churchill de Gaulle and Eisenhower so it is long long overdue vs. a frail woman who will have to take care of a dying husband (Bill) while the world is falling apart.

checkmate

how can you find Chinese 'strategically advanced' when they are splagued with one dead ideology and still have a horror like Mao in their heart. This is totally schizo to me. Those guys have absolutely NO CLUE about capital markets and mark my words, they will be the reason for the next world financial crisis once all their cheating can no longer be concealed.

you need to remember Chinese are the sickest gamblers on the planet, superstitious ridden with stupid belief. You can be numerate all you want if you still think rhino horn and tiger claws will make your dick harder, and are ok to carry on killing endangered species to that effect you are just the world' worst scumbag.

Disclaimer: i have many Chinese girlfriends.

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CV
admin
September 26, 2016 at 11:12 AM ×

Top of the morning to you too Nico ;)!

Nasty breaks all over the place. Heads down, helmets on ... perhaps. I am biased given my earlier comments, but I think we head lower.

Meanwhile, in the world of alternative universe headlines. "Merkel commits to a bail-out of DB if the share price falls below €1"

See what I did there?

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checkmate
admin
September 26, 2016 at 11:55 AM ×

Nico,
You're great ,love you guy, but on occasion of which this is one you need to suppress that genetic tendency to let your blood boil whilst your brain takes an holiday.
The Chinese should not be stereotyped by some of the remarks you made. Consider how far they have come economically and how quickly to become the factory of the world. Taking millions from subsistence on the land to what is probably a better standard of living and education than they could have hoped for 30 years ago. I think they also know this 'factory' strategy is played out ,but the next phase of getting out there and buying up strategically important assets around the world is fully underway. Where it counts at a macro level I think they a very good chess players and I will certainly back them against the likes of the EU et al any day of the week and for someone to describe them has "retarded" begs the use of a mirror.

Regarding the markets does Trump top post Brexit realism has we see initial referendum boost fade. Does that to come economic fade get amplified by concerns that actually Article 50 is going to get done and it's not that far away? I've been from an investor view fairly agnostic about the £ preferring no position. I don't like the downside after so much has already gone and given the aforementioned review I don't like the upside either.
In particular order we have to make sense of the mix of EU banks, Trump, Fed, Article 50. Unfortunately , out of all that I don't really like risk on equities or some of the usual risk off bonds or equity lookalikes. I suspect it's mainly cash for me and maybe some selective equity trades if they get overcrushed.

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 12:00 PM ×

"I don't support Trump but i hate the Clintons beyond reason."

+1

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 12:20 PM ×

I think, if Trump gets in, you see Yellen and others walk from the FED. That's the event risk. It gives them an out. They walk, markets tank, they can blame Trump. Perfect patsy.

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Nico G
admin
September 26, 2016 at 12:50 PM ×

no worry cmate hard boiled sangre, no brain i was practising for tonight's debate

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 1:12 PM ×

I agree entirely with Nico.

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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 26, 2016 at 1:36 PM ×

Nico, of course the money was from 1.50 and down.
But there's also money from 1.30 to 1.25 if that's indeed what's going to occur.

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 1:44 PM ×

I am enthic chinese from Hong Kong (and do business with the mainland) and Nicos comments about Chinese being compulsive gamblers is absolutely spot on.

The other bits about markets, well we will see soon enough

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AL
admin
September 26, 2016 at 2:04 PM ×

https://sffed-education.org/chairthefed/

It makes me laugh ...... :-)

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checkmate
admin
September 26, 2016 at 2:27 PM ×

The Chinese you see in the street may well be compulsive gamblers. I am talking about the core leadership in that country who have managed over 30 years to find a way for their country to eat the lunch of the developed countries. That is strategy and I am still waiting to find another top trading nation who could better it.

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 2:56 PM ×

Checkmate - china is able to grow fast for all these years because the population obeys.the average chinese is stretched and worked to the marrow in order for the 100 guys in the room to go on with central planning; their conditioning is conditioned to rely on govt. this means the party has carte blanche on anything (stop capital flows on a dime, print/monetize/forgive debt, bail out/kill failing SoEs. true, avg chinese are hardworking, etc... but if you are not part of the upper class, you have minimal shot at mobility because there is no rule of of law and the rules of financial success are changing. hence, massive corruption, money worship, desperate attempts to exit the country.

the low hanging fruit has already been picked (pumping out gdp, manufacturing base, etc...). no matter how you slice it and dice it - it's central planning. if you are part of elite, no system is better for your survival; but i don't think you'd wanna be there as an average person underwriting their 'strategic' actions.


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Nico G
admin
September 26, 2016 at 3:08 PM ×

anon 2:56 thank you for speaking on behalf of the 1.3 billion chinese fucked by such apparatchik (50 million people or so) system. Hardly an example to be in awe with, any country with 1.3 billion slaves would do ok-ish in today's economic landscape.

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checkmate
admin
September 26, 2016 at 3:12 PM ×

I have not said that China benefits everyone. I have not said China is a beacon of light for capitalism.
I have said that the leadership of China have strategically outplayed every bloody trading nation in the world for 30 years and frankly I am not trying to cast judgements on 'how' they have done it. Has it hurt some , helped others etc etc. I am saying that if this is the definition of 'retarded' then exactly what does that make everybody else ? Amoeba ?
From a strategic viewpoint, when I have you in checkmate then do I care how I got you there ? No!

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Nico G
admin
September 26, 2016 at 3:31 PM ×

read Mao's unknown story by Jung Chang - essential read before anyone thinks of opining on China

Mao once told Stalin that he was ready to kill half of Chinese population (700m at that time) to get what he wanted. Stalin went like 'wow and i thought that I was a cunt'

what kind of strategy is that, but the epitome of egomania, cruelty and self genocide? this is how China reached the international stage and the reason why Mao is on the 100 banknote.

Cambodian, Armenian, Jewish holocaust are briskly remembered but noone seems to have the Chinese genocide in mind. Everybody comfortably numb, rushing to do business with those monsters of Chinese elites who frankly noone outside China should be forced to praise, dear checkmate.

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 3:34 PM ×

China is also able to sometimes gain an advantage by doing nothing. One example is the recent EU plan/decision (don't know if implemented yet) to start taxing robots. Robotization was about to make location of manufacturing less important as they cost the same to operate everywhere excluding changes in the electric price - but hey - now location does matter again so all else excluded - there's an incentive that the robots are located in China.

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Macro Man
admin
September 26, 2016 at 3:42 PM ×

Nico can you tone down the language a bit please.

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 3:59 PM ×

@checkmate

As a South Eastern Asian who has been observing China for the past 20 years, I would have to agree with Nico on this matter. The new, rich China that we see is a small portion of the whole country. There are a billion people who are living in near African poverty, and are oppressed/brainwashed by the Party into slavery. I don't know how you can call this system exactly a success. Don't get me started on neopotism and corruption... I'm not even to going to get into the money part, in China if you run over a peasant and your father happens to be a high ranking party member, the whole thing is buried and you get to walk free.

I also have to add that the rapid industrialization of China is not a feat unseen in modern history. Many countries in their development stage deployed strategies similar to what China did(state sponsored SOEs, mercantilistic policies etc). Most recent success stories that come to mind are Japan and South Korea, which are coincidentally also South Eastern nations.

To correct a common misconception, the driving force that powered growth in these countries was investment, not exports. High trade surpluses are just a natural residual of policies that increase savings and drive down consumption. If China was really smart about what they were doing, they would have identified the weakness in this growth model and would have changed their policies accordingly. We know that this is not the case, they took their investment bubble into the strastosphere. Now the lost decades of Japan is the fate that awaits them. Michael Pettis at his blog has a whole stash of informative articles on this stuff, if you want to check it out.

Finally, I don't agree that China is the winner of this global trade/finance system. People in China work in sweatshops to produce low priced goods that Westerners consume, and in return China is blessed with 2 trillions of US gov bonds...? We all know that sovereign bonds are a fraction of their current market value, so who wins? Yeah most of the Western world is mired in debt, but they probably had immense fun during their spending binge, and when the bill is due most of them will probably dead and in the grave.

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Nico G
admin
September 26, 2016 at 4:08 PM ×

MM since you do not like my full on style i will stop contributing to your website. I like to think that i bring value to the comment section but you seem to want to pee on it and there was never one word of gratitude on your part. Folks hardly make money from your always precautious market calls if any, but good ideas may arise from the comment section. Animated by volunteers who will never ask for a penny but who will be soon asked to pay for your wisdom, apparently. Come on. Over and out.

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johno
admin
September 26, 2016 at 4:16 PM ×

Ha, ha, there Nico goes with his "you had to [do some trade months ago]." Until I build that time machine, that advice won't help much. And as it happens, I've made more money since the Brexit vote trading GBP-crosses than from anything else (despite not shorting cable at 1.50). Maybe not Nico-sized profits, but I happily take them.

Thank you for the color, FMPM. I de-risked some myself the past few days, going slightly short. Also eyeing GBP (went long some EURGBP Friday, took small profit and now watching). Have lightened AUDNZD, but may dial that back up. EURNOK not working, so far, but can't say it won't. The world does look a bit dicey here ... debate tonight against backdrop of tightening polls headlines, DBK tanking, and JPY heading back to 100.

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checkmate
admin
September 26, 2016 at 4:26 PM ×

Guys we are talking at cross purposes here. On the last article someone saud 'the Chinese are retarded" . The implication being that the Chinese leadership were retarded. I responded by stating that if taking a country from virtually nowhere to being the 'factory' of the world was retarded then bring it on because it makes the rest look like non-starters.
It should be needless to state that there are multiple arguments about ethics ,abuses, etc etc and I can certainly understand how that gets people excited. However, none of this alters the outcome which is that the Chinese leadership have been outplaying the rest of the world for three decades. Do we like the way they do it? Do we not think that it hasn't been good for many of their population? All valid questions ,but the answers to alter the outcome. China has beaten the rest in this economic 'game'. On that single premise I don't see out it is even arguable.

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Macro Man
admin
September 26, 2016 at 4:35 PM ×

Sigh. Is it really too much to ask not to use the 'c' word in a comment section? It isn't, particularly when the person asking takes the time every day to write and provide a forum. Speaking of thanks, I have yet to hear a word of it from you over the decade I've been doing it, though there has been the odd moan about trolls and hissy fits like this one.

I do agree that you bring value to the comment section, though apparently you feel like I bring none to the commentary. If you feel like what I provide (and more to the point, propose to provide) isn't worth any of your millions of trading profits, or that I shouldn't try to derive some revenue out of an activity that I have spent thousands of hours over the years on, so be it. Life goes on, and it's gonna go on a lot longer before I tug my forelock and thank a visitor to my site for disregarding repeated requests to not use profanity.

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Hotairmail
admin
September 26, 2016 at 5:12 PM ×

I put the price action today primarily down to DB and Merkel's promise not to intervene in their $14 bn dispute with the USA nor bail them out rather than presidential debates.

Re the China issue and who is 'playing' who - I would suggest China has done well because it suited commercial interests and investors to drive down costs of production. It doesn't really matter to them what flows in and out of the USA or anywhere else. The same sort of thinking allows China to maintain an unfeasibly low currency level for a prolonged period without complaints from US companies.

In fact, we see a similar sort of phenomenon as to why the Greek rich and their Establishment do not want to leave the Euro - because they'd like to keep their money and assets hard and see their fellow countrymen eat grass.

I could fall into the trap of sounding like an old unreformed Communist, but the 'war' today isn't between countries, it is between vested interests which chime more across borders than within them.

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 5:13 PM ×

Wow, people are arguing about China here. Interesting. A few observations:
first, should not let our emotion to cloud our judgments: easy to say difficult to do if you hate something/some country for reasons unrelated to economy/market or because of geopolitical disputes.

secondly, Michael Pettis has repeated the same theme on his blog about China for about 10 years. Reading enough of his articles, you'd think that China would have been collapsed numerous times in the past ten years.

third, the central planning of China, which is the direction every major economies are all going, have you seen how CBs micromanaged yield curves and how everyone is pushing governments to do more fiscal stimulus- governments to decide where/when/how much to spend.

As for the stereotype, if I step into a casino and see all the Asian faces in high roller areas, I might have had the same idea that all 1.3 billion Chinese are obsessive gamblers. Intelligently naïve approach but quite common when we observe a different culture. Hopefully we do not trade on this habit.

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RI
admin
September 26, 2016 at 5:15 PM ×

Nico, I believe that in a civilized society it is polite to show appreciation to your host rather than the other way around. I recall that it was only a week ago that the comment section was full of genuine appreciation for a decades hard work that has raised the educational level and indeed the profitability of many of its readers.
Perhaps if you could ignore that outsize chip on your shoulder for more than a minute, you might understand that a simple polite request from your host to tone down the language should be met with a prompt apology and then move on.

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September 26, 2016 at 5:17 PM ×

Though my thoughts count for very little here, I'd like to add my rebuke to Nico. I am a middle class American that makes no great money trading but comes here everyday to read thought provoking blog entries (thanks MM) and the diverse comments thereafter. I won't be able to continue reading if the blog goes to a pay model, but I understand if it does. Making off-color comments (even if the content might be valid) in my opinion only hastens this transition, so I really don't appreciate it.

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 5:27 PM ×

Nico is almost certainly aspergers or on the spectrum. In this regard his lack of social skills is understandable and should be tolerated in that light.

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 5:31 PM ×

By the end of this week heads will be spinning faster than a Hitachi CS150FNX

14 Fed speeches and some of them will speak twice.

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 5:56 PM ×

@ Nico - chill big guy

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 5:58 PM ×

No need to take life so seriously

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johno
admin
September 26, 2016 at 6:20 PM ×

Civility and due appreciation for MM aside, Nico, I wouldn't think this kind of behavior augurs well for your PnL. Humility and self-possession keep us (or at least, me) alive in this game. Perhaps time for a 10-day Vipassana meditation retreat, or something of the like? And an apology to MM.

Anyway, I don't want to be lecturing a very capable trader who could teach me many a thing ...

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checkmate
admin
September 26, 2016 at 6:38 PM ×

As an aside this article focusses on the Student debt issue that MM posted on recently. I found it interesting and perhaps a bit disturbing in the sense I was not aware of some the data used in the article. Beware of making associations that might not be true ,but would "The nation’s homeownership rate now is at its lowest since 1965, according to the Census Bureau" this have any relationship to a generation of overindebted aspiring homebuyers?

The link.
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-sheila-bair-student-debt/

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 6:48 PM ×

No need to even translate!

Deutsche Bank im freien Fall: Spekulanten wetten eine halbe Milliarde Euro gegen die Geduld der Kanzlerin.

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AB
admin
September 26, 2016 at 7:31 PM ×

All of these comments on China are throwing off the comment count. This forum is supposed to generate comment counts that indicate sentiment. You are confusing the bots.

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abee crombie
admin
September 26, 2016 at 8:22 PM ×

Thanks for the comments FMPM, your thoughts are to the point and interesting. Please continue to post. In addition to GBP, CAD looks weak as well, and MXN, well who knows

I'm seeing nothing here but will key back in on price action if Spoos break below 2020 or when Q3 earnings come out. spoos did a text book bounce off old highs, at 2020. Its hard to look at S&P chart and be too negative but that is exactly how I feel now, so who knows. As long as big tech keeps beating and raising, party on, imo

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 9:08 PM ×

Central Banks are losing their power. No matter where in the world you look, most of them have done all that they could and they are now losing their power and their credibility. Thank goodness.

The Central Banks we have now are disastrous. America has had three central banks, the first two disappeared, fortunately this one is going to disappear too because these guys are total imbeciles and they do not know what they are doing. They make mistake after mistake, after mistake, after mistake and eventually there is going to be a huge reaction, huge problems in the markets and the people are going to say, get rid of the central bank.
-Jim Rogers Sept 2016

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northshore
admin
September 26, 2016 at 9:12 PM ×

@Anon 5:13:

If you read Pettis, he's argued ad infinitum about choices and outcomes between a credit driven soft landing progressing into GDP and employment collapse, or more likely a very long landing.

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hawkeye
admin
September 26, 2016 at 9:43 PM ×

@Anon 9:08pm --

Who is this Jim Rogers of whom you speak? Does he have a track record of forecasting big events? One hopes he is a gifted forecaster and not just an attention seeker who will say anything to get on TV.

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Anonymous
admin
September 26, 2016 at 10:49 PM ×

Study well:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160926.htm

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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 27, 2016 at 1:31 AM ×

Thanks for the kind words guys. From speaking with few more people that I've worked with for years as co-PMs (we are all over now... but my connects are mostly US based firms Moore, Tudor and etc - so forgive me if my viewpoints/optics are more US-centric), I think people are beginning to price in Trump presidency in a serious manner.

Personally, I actually like Trump. I think he would make a decent one-term president to give it a little jolt to a rather dull system - no matter how asinine some of his views are. But as a student of history, candidates like Trump hasnt hurt and I think you buy the hell out of any discount we get on risk assets pre and post president-elect Trump moment.

I also think it will be great for the macro guys as it actually give us a definable theme/trend to trade on for a few years and also for those that are pretty well rehearsed in the geopolitical game.

For today, I think we get the same move as we saw yesterday. I'm quite heavily short again w/ GBP, Spooz, and AUD.

I think this "trump repricing" might have some legs given that you have guys like Nate Silver essentially giving Trump a coin flip chance. Also, from my own observations of the electoral map, Colorado and Pennsylvania are now dead tie even if you average the last five polls. There's actually real viable path for Trump to reach 270 if he were to steal just Pennsylvania. He's already leading in Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina (all electorate heavy swing states that Dems count on - especially Nevada and Ohio).

If this is the case, I think MXN is still vulnerable. Because Trump really does have a viable runway here.

I've been wanting to nibble on MXN, but I feel like I'm quite late and whenever I get that "feeling", it rarely ends well for the position...so ill probably sit out on the pesos.

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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 27, 2016 at 1:34 AM ×

Frankly, the establishment would want a sell off after Trump's election, rather than now. Because any sell off now, the blame as usual will fall on the incumbent party and would just fan the flame for Trump's accusation of how "stagnant" things have been the past eight years. So with just 5 weeks or so to go, and with retirement account statements going out a week before the election, even those impervious to Trump's rhetoric, might find themselves being lured to briefly see the world through Trump's lenses.

It's going to be great for some of us who are prolific tactical traders. Christmas might actually be a bountiful one this year - for a good chunk of the year, things were looking quite average.

Goodluck everyone.

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Macro Man
admin
September 27, 2016 at 1:40 AM ×

@ FMPM, recall that Spooz crapped the bed at this time for about 5-6 weeks in 2012, starting a few hours after October payrolls. It seems to me that the political discourse in the US is sufficiently toxic that having it bubble to the surface naturally weighs on sentiment.

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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 27, 2016 at 2:03 AM ×

@MM

Perfect ;)


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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 27, 2016 at 2:04 AM ×

The debate begins in.... 3..2..1

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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 27, 2016 at 4:24 AM ×

Risk assets seeing a bit of a relief after Trump's not so great debate performance.

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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 27, 2016 at 4:28 AM ×

Trump seriously missed his chance tonight. And that changes things quite a bit from how I want to be positioned as well.

I was looking to add more to my positions (I'm only about half way up to size where I want my overall exposure to be) but looks like I'll be forced to let things play out a bit more before adding.

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Anonymous
admin
September 27, 2016 at 2:56 PM ×

Checkmate, thanks for the Bair article. She is one of my heroes. However, like other commentaries I've seen on the problem, it barely scratches the surface of the relationship between easy credit and rising prices (bubble prices). I love that the article refers to the "powerful lobby" that wants to prevent any changes. If you have time, see the Frontline segment on "A Subprime Education." It shows what happened to one of the more egregious purveyors of a college degree on government credit. The very day the government turned off the money tap, Corinthian Colleges shut all their doors! Classes were permanently suspended!

Rossmorguy

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