tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post8073844476550918483..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Holding patternMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger52125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-55143678448053334402016-09-27T14:56:22.448+01:002016-09-27T14:56:22.448+01:00Checkmate, thanks for the Bair article. She is on...Checkmate, thanks for the Bair article. She is one of my heroes. However, like other commentaries I've seen on the problem, it barely scratches the surface of the relationship between easy credit and rising prices (bubble prices). I love that the article refers to the "powerful lobby" that wants to prevent any changes. If you have time, see the Frontline segment on "A Subprime Education." It shows what happened to one of the more egregious purveyors of a college degree on government credit. The very day the government turned off the money tap, Corinthian Colleges shut all their doors! Classes were permanently suspended!<br /><br />RossmorguyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-395494502803188432016-09-27T04:28:34.053+01:002016-09-27T04:28:34.053+01:00Trump seriously missed his chance tonight. And tha...Trump seriously missed his chance tonight. And that changes things quite a bit from how I want to be positioned as well. <br /><br />I was looking to add more to my positions (I'm only about half way up to size where I want my overall exposure to be) but looks like I'll be forced to let things play out a bit more before adding.Fired Macro PMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-51172007581915999472016-09-27T04:24:08.707+01:002016-09-27T04:24:08.707+01:00Risk assets seeing a bit of a relief after Trump&#...Risk assets seeing a bit of a relief after Trump's not so great debate performance. Fired Macro PMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71031508775764729552016-09-27T02:04:24.232+01:002016-09-27T02:04:24.232+01:00The debate begins in.... 3..2..1The debate begins in.... 3..2..1Fired Macro PMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31922681129093453312016-09-27T02:03:52.626+01:002016-09-27T02:03:52.626+01:00@MM
Perfect ;)
@MM<br /><br />Perfect ;)<br /><br /><br />Fired Macro PMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-22887131614074461762016-09-27T01:40:08.664+01:002016-09-27T01:40:08.664+01:00@ FMPM, recall that Spooz crapped the bed at this ...@ FMPM, recall that Spooz crapped the bed at this time for about 5-6 weeks in 2012, starting a few hours after October payrolls. It seems to me that the political discourse in the US is sufficiently toxic that having it bubble to the surface naturally weighs on sentiment.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57120459501277572262016-09-27T01:34:13.293+01:002016-09-27T01:34:13.293+01:00Frankly, the establishment would want a sell off a...Frankly, the establishment would want a sell off after Trump's election, rather than now. Because any sell off now, the blame as usual will fall on the incumbent party and would just fan the flame for Trump's accusation of how "stagnant" things have been the past eight years. So with just 5 weeks or so to go, and with retirement account statements going out a week before the election, even those impervious to Trump's rhetoric, might find themselves being lured to briefly see the world through Trump's lenses.<br /><br />It's going to be great for some of us who are prolific tactical traders. Christmas might actually be a bountiful one this year - for a good chunk of the year, things were looking quite average.<br /><br />Goodluck everyone.Fired Macro PMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-35608232739197924802016-09-27T01:31:26.194+01:002016-09-27T01:31:26.194+01:00Thanks for the kind words guys. From speaking with...Thanks for the kind words guys. From speaking with few more people that I've worked with for years as co-PMs (we are all over now... but my connects are mostly US based firms Moore, Tudor and etc - so forgive me if my viewpoints/optics are more US-centric), I think people are beginning to price in Trump presidency in a serious manner. <br /><br />Personally, I actually like Trump. I think he would make a decent one-term president to give it a little jolt to a rather dull system - no matter how asinine some of his views are. But as a student of history, candidates like Trump hasnt hurt and I think you buy the hell out of any discount we get on risk assets pre and post president-elect Trump moment. <br /><br />I also think it will be great for the macro guys as it actually give us a definable theme/trend to trade on for a few years and also for those that are pretty well rehearsed in the geopolitical game. <br /><br />For today, I think we get the same move as we saw yesterday. I'm quite heavily short again w/ GBP, Spooz, and AUD. <br /><br />I think this "trump repricing" might have some legs given that you have guys like Nate Silver essentially giving Trump a coin flip chance. Also, from my own observations of the electoral map, Colorado and Pennsylvania are now dead tie even if you average the last five polls. There's actually real viable path for Trump to reach 270 if he were to steal just Pennsylvania. He's already leading in Ohio, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina (all electorate heavy swing states that Dems count on - especially Nevada and Ohio).<br /><br />If this is the case, I think MXN is still vulnerable. Because Trump really does have a viable runway here.<br /><br />I've been wanting to nibble on MXN, but I feel like I'm quite late and whenever I get that "feeling", it rarely ends well for the position...so ill probably sit out on the pesos.<br /><br />Fired Macro PMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1597876150204831042016-09-26T22:49:11.918+01:002016-09-26T22:49:11.918+01:00Study well:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160...Study well:<br />http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160926.htmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48895077822628685072016-09-26T21:43:32.659+01:002016-09-26T21:43:32.659+01:00@Anon 9:08pm --
Who is this Jim Rogers of whom yo...@Anon 9:08pm --<br /><br />Who is this Jim Rogers of whom you speak? Does he have a track record of forecasting big events? One hopes he is a gifted forecaster and not just an attention seeker who will say anything to get on TV.hawkeyenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-71934511593414726502016-09-26T21:12:32.844+01:002016-09-26T21:12:32.844+01:00@Anon 5:13:
If you read Pettis, he's argued a...@Anon 5:13:<br /><br />If you read Pettis, he's argued ad infinitum about choices and outcomes between a credit driven soft landing progressing into GDP and employment collapse, or more likely a very long landing.northshorenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31598545854642590072016-09-26T21:08:40.633+01:002016-09-26T21:08:40.633+01:00Central Banks are losing their power. No matter wh...<i>Central Banks are losing their power. No matter where in the world you look, most of them have done all that they could and they are now losing their power and their credibility. Thank goodness.<br /><br />The Central Banks we have now are disastrous. America has had three central banks, the first two disappeared, fortunately this one is going to disappear too because these guys are total imbeciles and they do not know what they are doing. They make mistake after mistake, after mistake, after mistake and eventually there is going to be a huge reaction, huge problems in the markets and the people are going to say, get rid of the central bank.<br />-Jim Rogers Sept 2016</i>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-402761887460109572016-09-26T20:22:53.389+01:002016-09-26T20:22:53.389+01:00Thanks for the comments FMPM, your thoughts are to...Thanks for the comments FMPM, your thoughts are to the point and interesting. Please continue to post. In addition to GBP, CAD looks weak as well, and MXN, well who knows<br /><br />I'm seeing nothing here but will key back in on price action if Spoos break below 2020 or when Q3 earnings come out. spoos did a text book bounce off old highs, at 2020. Its hard to look at S&P chart and be too negative but that is exactly how I feel now, so who knows. As long as big tech keeps beating and raising, party on, imoabee crombiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13320039155613443039noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-44220771853326549322016-09-26T19:31:35.608+01:002016-09-26T19:31:35.608+01:00All of these comments on China are throwing off th...All of these comments on China are throwing off the comment count. This forum is supposed to generate comment counts that indicate sentiment. You are confusing the bots.ABnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42532813877484813212016-09-26T18:48:44.247+01:002016-09-26T18:48:44.247+01:00No need to even translate!
Deutsche Bank im freie...No need to even translate!<br /><br />Deutsche Bank im freien Fall: Spekulanten wetten eine halbe Milliarde Euro gegen die Geduld der Kanzlerin.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29747785243005325832016-09-26T18:38:53.513+01:002016-09-26T18:38:53.513+01:00As an aside this article focusses on the Student d...As an aside this article focusses on the Student debt issue that MM posted on recently. I found it interesting and perhaps a bit disturbing in the sense I was not aware of some the data used in the article. Beware of making associations that might not be true ,but would "The nation’s homeownership rate now is at its lowest since 1965, according to the Census Bureau" this have any relationship to a generation of overindebted aspiring homebuyers?<br /><br />The link.<br /> https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-sheila-bair-student-debt/checkmatehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688082792316894545noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-13003838824704198482016-09-26T18:20:58.337+01:002016-09-26T18:20:58.337+01:00Civility and due appreciation for MM aside, Nico, ...Civility and due appreciation for MM aside, Nico, I wouldn't think this kind of behavior augurs well for your PnL. Humility and self-possession keep us (or at least, me) alive in this game. Perhaps time for a 10-day Vipassana meditation retreat, or something of the like? And an apology to MM.<br /><br />Anyway, I don't want to be lecturing a very capable trader who could teach me many a thing ...<br /><br />johnonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-26706259687666102602016-09-26T17:58:04.959+01:002016-09-26T17:58:04.959+01:00No need to take life so seriouslyNo need to take life so seriouslyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29286549057536766472016-09-26T17:56:19.177+01:002016-09-26T17:56:19.177+01:00@ Nico - chill big guy
@ Nico - chill big guy<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-6776963274505328012016-09-26T17:31:01.642+01:002016-09-26T17:31:01.642+01:00By the end of this week heads will be spinning fas...By the end of this week heads will be spinning faster than a Hitachi CS150FNX<br /><br />14 Fed speeches and some of them will speak twice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87113427989368486812016-09-26T17:27:07.773+01:002016-09-26T17:27:07.773+01:00Nico is almost certainly aspergers or on the spect...Nico is almost certainly aspergers or on the spectrum. In this regard his lack of social skills is understandable and should be tolerated in that light.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-60019716038370173702016-09-26T17:17:58.130+01:002016-09-26T17:17:58.130+01:00Though my thoughts count for very little here, I&#...Though my thoughts count for very little here, I'd like to add my rebuke to Nico. I am a middle class American that makes no great money trading but comes here everyday to read thought provoking blog entries (thanks MM) and the diverse comments thereafter. I won't be able to continue reading if the blog goes to a pay model, but I understand if it does. Making off-color comments (even if the content might be valid) in my opinion only hastens this transition, so I really don't appreciate it. Marshall Junghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01494663748081037987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-59625439965396510172016-09-26T17:15:40.314+01:002016-09-26T17:15:40.314+01:00Nico, I believe that in a civilized society it is ...Nico, I believe that in a civilized society it is polite to show appreciation to your host rather than the other way around. I recall that it was only a week ago that the comment section was full of genuine appreciation for a decades hard work that has raised the educational level and indeed the profitability of many of its readers. <br />Perhaps if you could ignore that outsize chip on your shoulder for more than a minute, you might understand that a simple polite request from your host to tone down the language should be met with a prompt apology and then move on.RInoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63828102713111049112016-09-26T17:13:44.806+01:002016-09-26T17:13:44.806+01:00Wow, people are arguing about China here. Interest...Wow, people are arguing about China here. Interesting. A few observations: <br />first, should not let our emotion to cloud our judgments: easy to say difficult to do if you hate something/some country for reasons unrelated to economy/market or because of geopolitical disputes. <br /><br />secondly, Michael Pettis has repeated the same theme on his blog about China for about 10 years. Reading enough of his articles, you'd think that China would have been collapsed numerous times in the past ten years.<br /><br />third, the central planning of China, which is the direction every major economies are all going, have you seen how CBs micromanaged yield curves and how everyone is pushing governments to do more fiscal stimulus- governments to decide where/when/how much to spend.<br /><br />As for the stereotype, if I step into a casino and see all the Asian faces in high roller areas, I might have had the same idea that all 1.3 billion Chinese are obsessive gamblers. Intelligently naïve approach but quite common when we observe a different culture. Hopefully we do not trade on this habit. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-57905450653852458072016-09-26T17:12:56.406+01:002016-09-26T17:12:56.406+01:00I put the price action today primarily down to DB ...I put the price action today primarily down to DB and Merkel's promise not to intervene in their $14 bn dispute with the USA nor bail them out rather than presidential debates.<br /><br />Re the China issue and who is 'playing' who - I would suggest China has done well because it suited commercial interests and investors to drive down costs of production. It doesn't really matter to them what flows in and out of the USA or anywhere else. The same sort of thinking allows China to maintain an unfeasibly low currency level for a prolonged period without complaints from US companies.<br /><br />In fact, we see a similar sort of phenomenon as to why the Greek rich and their Establishment do not want to leave the Euro - because they'd like to keep their money and assets hard and see their fellow countrymen eat grass. <br /><br />I could fall into the trap of sounding like an old unreformed Communist, but the 'war' today isn't between countries, it is between vested interests which chime more across borders than within them.Alhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14381013196081166483noreply@blogger.com