Macro Man turns 10 years old

You can take the dove out of Brainard...actually, apparently you can't.  Her speech yesterday was the equivalent of the Little Red Book for financial repressionistas, covering the major arguments (and some minor ones) why monetary policy should remain uber-accommodative.  Amongst the panoply of risks identified by Brainard, that of incentivizing people to buy financial assets at stupid prices was notably absent.  Quelle surprise!  If you can measure someone's worth by the company they keep, then the Hosannas heaped upon this speech by former FOMC uber-dove and current crackpot Narayana Kocherlakota says it all.

In sum, therefore, the leopard did not change its spots, the dove didn't grow talons, and the Fed did not give us the nudge, nudge wink, wink that a rate hike is imminent.  While the direction of the equity market's reaction was not a surprise, the magnitude was impressive, with Spooz reclaiming a goodly chunk of Friday's meltdown losses.  As Macro Man noted yesterday, volatility tends to cluster, so large moves in both directions were to be expected.


While the short end rallied a bit, with September priced at just 12% odds, the bond market reaction was notably muted.  Although futures rallied, both bonds and ultras failed to take out the intraday high from Friday's pit session.  As reactions to super-dovish commentary go, this was about as unimpressive as it gets.


As such, it is entirely justifiable to retain a healthy dose of skepticism over Monday's snapback rally.   After all, if higher bond yields helped spark the sell-off, and bond yields barely budged despite the most supportive commentary possible from a key FOMC member, what does that say about the path of least resistance moving forwards?

Of course, saying one wants to "sell the rally" and finding the right level to do so are two different things.   While Macro Man was fortunate in his timing to take off some risk yesterday morning, he was, ahem, premature in redeploying it during the bounce.  Still, as long as the bond gap holds it seems reasonable to let some more go, perhaps after Europe enjoys their relief rally this morning.

Looking ahead, there's no real reason why a dovish dissent should do any more to stop a Fed decision than many of the hawkish ones over the past couple of years.  Then again, in many cases the Fed hasn't needed a "real reason" to stand pat and stay dovish, and dissent from a governor will carry more weight than one from a regional president.   The commentary accompanying September's decision will be particularly important, as it will be an opportunity to ensure that December's meeting is well and truly "live".

Elsewhere, Macro Man hopes that readers will indulge him a bit of self-congratulation of the type most commonly associated with the central banking community.   For today is the 10th anniversary of the Macro Man blog, which inaugurated in 2006 with a post title that still resonates today.  In the interim, this space has played host to 2,107 posts, which have attracted nearly 4 million viewers and more than 6 million page views.

The look has changed from this


to this


to this


to what you see before you today.

Long-time readers will of course recall that Macro Man endured a forced blogging retirement of four years when he first moved to the United States in 2010, during which time the TMM of Polemic, cpmppi, Nemo, and others behind the scenes helped keep this place alive.  Macro Man owes them a debt of gratitude-  thanks lads.

Since his return, your author has been pleased and gratified to see readership and the little community of the comments section grow, which is a testament to the fact that even in the midst of dire financial repression, there remains an interest in macro viewpoints.   As evidence mounts that many of these repressionary policies have reached the limits of their utility, the benefits of a top-down investment approach should only increase.

While Macro Man has made efforts over the years to tart the place up, he will admit that the results make it appear unlikely that an alternative career in graphic design awaits him.  It does seem, however, that after a decade it may be time to decamp to a proper bespoke web address with a site that is properly designed, not picked out of a (free) catalog and jury-rigged by an author whose ignorance of HTML is profound.

At the same time, Macro Man knows that he does his best and most interesting work with professional-caliber market and economic data to back him up.  It would be nice, also, to revive the model portfolio that accompanied the first 18 months of the blog; it's the most accurate way possible of sense-checking and keeping score of his views, which confers benefits not only to your author but also upon readers.

All of these potential changes require investment, of course, and your author would be a poor punter indeed if he sought no return from that investment.  While it's a well-known precept that people are loathe to pay for what they are accustomed to receiving for free, by the same token quality content has an economic value well in excess of zero.

Insofar as this space has always been something of a community, it seems only right to solicit feedback from readers before implementing any changes.  Indeed, the proverbial builders haven't even arrived on site yet.  But the world has changed mightily in the ten long years that Macro Man has been offering financial commentary, poetry, dodgy jokes and the odd Sherlock Holmes tale, and it behooves him to adapt.   No doubt the next decade will witness further changes still.

It's Macro Man's fervent hope that this blog will be around in another ten years, and that he and readers can look back on them as healthy and profitable ones.

Cheers!
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maximm
admin
September 13, 2016 at 7:32 AM ×

Happy Birthday Macro Man!. It's been a pleasure to be a reader for the 8 or so years I have known about the blog. Long may it continue.

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AL
admin
September 13, 2016 at 7:34 AM ×

Ah Macro Man, congratulations for reaching this milestone.
As a reader from the early days, I probably can't thank you (and TMM) enough for the invaluable insight you provided all over these years.
Coming to the office, switching my PC on and reading your daily post is now part of my routine. And I'm thankful for this.
Unfortunately I am not a frequent "poster" as working place restrictions are somewhat tight ... and at home, well, Macro Kids keep me well busy at night.
But if you think it is now time to move to the next level, with a dedicated web-site with related membership, I'm certainly in.
Cheers, MM

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CV
admin
September 13, 2016 at 7:46 AM ×

Here is to another 10 years! Easy peesy.

As for the website ... one word, Squarespace. Head and shoulders above the rest. I use it myself, although I only use a fraction of its functions. It will cost you, though. 20 USD a month. I don't know how Wordpress is these days.

Anyway, what a snapback! You have to love narratives, or the lack thereof. In any case, don't take the bait. It's a hoax. More downside ahead ... I think, I hope ... ah well.

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Celeriac1972
admin
September 13, 2016 at 8:25 AM ×

Well done on the 10Y track record! I am pondering your other point.

Was yesterday's equity relief rally as strong as it looked, or has it just provided a late opportunity to get short?

Bund looks like it may be rolling back over.

Could yet be an interesting week....

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 8:28 AM ×

Congratulations on your decade in print! As a longtime reader (probably close to that 10-years) and having received the first 10 free, I’d be quite happy to stump up for the next 10.

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mi pa
admin
September 13, 2016 at 8:31 AM ×

Congrats from looooong time reader. If i recall correctly, reader from the year One. Thank you and best for the future.

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 8:33 AM ×

Congratulations and thank you for providing us with a well balanced mixture of insight, clarity and wit for all these years. I've checked up on this blog atleast weekly since 2008 and never been let down by it, regardless who was responsible for it. The commentary section in my opinion has matured quite well too, which isn't to be taken for granted these days.

Here's to the next 10 years.

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Skr
admin
September 13, 2016 at 8:44 AM ×

If it's not broke, don't fix it.

Well done.

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 8:51 AM ×

Congratulations on 10 years of insightful market commentary Macro Man.

I appreciate markets and the world evolve, but by the same token, "if it ain't broke....don't fix it!"

I am not surprised at the dovish fed commentary, with the presidential elections closing in, I struggle to see an independent Fed tightening and unless the economy really pushes on, it would be tough on the next administration to be welcomed with a rate hike in December.

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Cityhunter
admin
September 13, 2016 at 9:09 AM ×

10yrs, wow. Congratulations MM! Here is to the next 10 great yrs!

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Hoboworldwide
admin
September 13, 2016 at 9:16 AM ×

Congrats on 10 years and no objections to contributing financially to the on-going running of the Blog.

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Polemic
admin
September 13, 2016 at 9:25 AM ×

One of the things I am most proud of in my life. Thank you for giving me the chance to be part of it. It changed me.

Here s to the next 10 yrs.

Congratulations I'm slicing the cake with you

Pol

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SR
admin
September 13, 2016 at 9:26 AM ×

Congratulations MM!

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Tim Schulace
admin
September 13, 2016 at 10:06 AM ×

Fervent reader but a limited poster. Thank you for many years of entertainment and education. Any way you want to proceed going forward is fine with me. You've earned that right.

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 10:47 AM ×

what a decade and thanks for your service MM.

my 2 cents - if money is an issue then you gotta do what you gotta do - but i agree with the others if it aint broke dont fix it, cause i have seen other "like minded" subscription services become echo chambers which is not good in the long run.

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 11:54 AM ×

Japanese debt maturing in 20 years or more has lost 9 percent this quarter. Little housewives taken to the cleaners.

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12yo HFM
admin
September 13, 2016 at 11:58 AM ×

@MM - 10 yrs for you, 12 yrs for me... you're in good company ;)

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Nico G
admin
September 13, 2016 at 12:19 PM ×

12 yo HFm should slow down on models and bottles and offer to pay MM annual subscription to the 20 posters he likes and hates the most

for one champagne bottle in club you could feed an African boy sorry you could feed 20 members for a year

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henner
admin
September 13, 2016 at 12:26 PM ×

congrats MM. i just stumbled upon your blog about a year ago but since then i read it pretty much every day... learned a lot. thx

i'm not sure about a subscription based service, sure, the content would be worth paying for but so is the discussion and I fear that would calm down once it's in a members-only area

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washedup
admin
September 13, 2016 at 12:38 PM ×

@MM - congratulations - I've been a huge fan since 2008 and look forward to the future - I also want to point out that any such forum is only as good as its moderator, and you deserve full credit not just for the impeccable thought leadership, but also for running a right ship and displaying good judgment in keeping this blog populated by people with the right attitude. This community is like an alternate workplace for me, and I find myself looking forward to the thoughts from its members more than I ever expected.

Like one of my bosses used to say early in my career - the only think that beats them liking you, is them needing you.

Respect!

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EuropeanBull
admin
September 13, 2016 at 12:46 PM ×

MM, all the best!

have been reading on and off for many years, but just recently became active in the comments.

If you ask me, don't hesitate to sell some space of your layout to advertisers (can't get worse than zerohedge anyways...)

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DreadfulDrivers
admin
September 13, 2016 at 1:17 PM ×

"I would like to thank Mrs Macro and the Macro Boys for standing by me....."

You forgot that bit.

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 1:22 PM ×

MM and TMM, congratz on the hard work for these ten years! Thank you very much.

As a follower from 2007, it is the quality of the content and lots of comments that attracts me here everyday, so I am fine with the format or ad if you want.

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 1:24 PM ×

Always an insightful read, congrats on 10yrs ! I would gladly support (pay/subscribe etc) your move to a nicer neighbourhood, and look forward to seeing the next incarnation of MM

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September 13, 2016 at 1:31 PM ×

Well done and thanks for this 10years experience... next step is some MacroMan merchandising or cycling team :), or if you wanna be a billionaire an app!

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Hotairmail
admin
September 13, 2016 at 1:37 PM ×

In a couple of years, you could change your handle to 12yo-MM. ;-)

Congratulations. I can't believe where those 10 years went. Certainly started with a bang. I sold everything - my house, cashed my pension in (I worked for a pretty staid retail bank up to 2000) cashed everything in and moved it all to brokers who didn't bet on their own account - no banks, insurance companies, pension funds. That was September 2006 - moved to a smallholding in the country, full on tin foil hat....my family thought I had gone mad, but to their credit (sic) they went with it. I just had an impending sense of doom, it was probably a breakdown of sorts.

Stopped the consulting trail and been betting for a living ever since. Managed to see some of my daughter, my little bird who has now just flown to the bright lights.

Where did that time go?

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September 13, 2016 at 1:44 PM ×

ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL MEMBER VASILIAUSKAS SEES INFLATION `VERY CLOSE' TO ECB TARGET IN 2019

very close..in 2019...can't stop laughing. It's called omnipotence or foolishness?

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September 13, 2016 at 2:00 PM ×

MM: congratulations on your first decade - I think I have been an avid reader for most of that time - and thanks for both the insights and the pastiche!

Chris

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September 13, 2016 at 2:02 PM ×

Back then, days didn't really start until you'd posted. Big heartfelt congratulations to you.

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12yo HFM
admin
September 13, 2016 at 2:08 PM ×

@Nico - In the interests of good banter, always happy to pay ur subscription ;)

@Hotairmail - "you could change your handle to 12yo-MM" ROFL

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Leftback
admin
September 13, 2016 at 2:19 PM ×

Quality decade, mate, quality.

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Thud and Blunder
admin
September 13, 2016 at 2:20 PM ×

Congratulations on your anniversary; that's actually no small achievement. I wonder how many non-commercial blogs manage to post quality content for ten years straight? Must be a very low number.

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northshore
admin
September 13, 2016 at 2:28 PM ×

Indulge away, and thanks for the efforts MM, TMM and commenters (inc rightfield from the past). Ten years. Been part of my day across trading desks, continents and employment status.

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wcw
admin
September 13, 2016 at 2:43 PM ×

Thanks for all the posts, MM.

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Leftback
admin
September 13, 2016 at 3:02 PM ×

Meanwhile, we appear to have entered a whole new volatility regime. Brainard cooed as a dove; and today spoos sell off?

This, [for 12yoHFM and other newbies], is a market that is no longer trading on expectations of Fed rate hikes, but is apparently responding to weakness in the global bond markets. Welcome to the real world, if all too fleetingly perhaps...?

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Error404
admin
September 13, 2016 at 3:05 PM ×

Congrats. MM has been a daily 'must-read' since I stumbled across the site a year or so after the last Fed hike. (God...am I really that old????) The consistency of insight and wit across the years has been impressive.

Particularly if you were to add a few bells and whistles to the offer, I'd be happy to give up food one day a week to cover a subscription. All I ask is that you don't lose sight of the fact that some of us have to drink scrumpy out in the sticks and can't recognise postcodes beginning W1J or W1K.

Tks for the first decade, and here's to the next!

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September 13, 2016 at 3:12 PM ×

Congrats MM. Thanks for all your insights the past 10 years. I have learned a very great deal from them, and I will always be thankful for it.

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Bruce in Tennessee
admin
September 13, 2016 at 3:13 PM ×

Thanks for the site MM...I come here to read the musings of the old hands....most of the posters seem to genuinely try to post something they think is useful...and thanks for that..

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 3:19 PM ×

Congrats. I've been reading for quite a while as well. Knowledge and enjoyment. Subscription would make sense (you can look at SeekingAlpha for ideas as they have created a facility for paid subscription blog posting). Instead of or in conjunction with, you might create a facility for others to post their model portfolios. This would make part or all of the community tighter and perhaps might be of more interesting compensation. For example, if you want access to the MM portfolio, you have to post and regularly update your own. You could be the arbiter of whether someone was putting forth sufficient effort.

Anyway, well done and thank you!

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Macro Man
admin
September 13, 2016 at 3:19 PM ×

Thanks for all the kind comments. Thanks also to Mrs. Macro and the Macro boys...astute readers will have observed her making a rare appearance in this space earlier up the thread.

While I can certainly appreciate the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" sentiments, I would submit that not having regular access to necessary data feeds and putting in a lot of effort over the (past and coming?) years for no tangible reward does represent some degree of brokenness.

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 3:22 PM ×

Thanks for the quality content on this blog.

As a younger reader looking to get into macro trading this has been invaluable to me and a better education than you would get from any formal institution. However, I must say that one of the main reasons I visit is to view the discussions in the comments section and I am afraid that by making it a subscription blog, it could tamper with the quality. Just like EuropeanBull said, renting out space for ads would be a better solution imho.

Just my 2 cents.

Happy Birthday

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Rossco
admin
September 13, 2016 at 3:41 PM ×

Just like the white winged dove
Sings a song
Sounds like she's singing
Ooh ooh ooh

Just like the white winged dove
Sings a song
Sounds like she's singing
Oh Brainerd oh, said oh

And the days go by
Like short spoos, in the wind
With the margin that's my own
I begin again

Said to my Jan-ett, baby
Nothin' else mattered\

MM was no more.... than a baby then
Well he, seemed broken hearted
Something within him
But the moment that I first laid
Eyes on the blog, all alone
On the edge of GFCeeeee

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dn8-4tjPxD8

thanks MM - been a good ride, rgds , Stevie

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cowboy
admin
September 13, 2016 at 3:41 PM ×

Congrats! and thanks for the (ongoing) education

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Leftback
admin
September 13, 2016 at 3:50 PM ×

The Pink Blog should pony up every time they rip off your posts/comments/ideas, which is about once a week.....

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MrBeach
admin
September 13, 2016 at 3:57 PM ×

Happy tenth anniversary! During my random middle of the night wakeups - I check foreign markets, futures, twitter and your blog. Thank you for your posts and blog.

The comments section is also quite informative - the regulars (you know who you are) are absolutely fantastic. Thank you as well.

Best of luck for another ten.

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dodahman
admin
September 13, 2016 at 3:58 PM ×

I remember my dismay when you took the job and had to go offline. Congrats to MM and the posters. Daily read, still learning. Thank you.

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wcw
admin
September 13, 2016 at 4:11 PM ×

MM, real talk with much love from a longtimer, sub fees would have me drop off.

How 'bout that market, though, huh? 12yo HFM's long ES/short TN has been a real home run.

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Leftback
admin
September 13, 2016 at 4:24 PM ×

Bad day for Mr Risk Parity Fund Manager. Even the long bond is taking it up the Gary today.

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 4:29 PM ×

feel sorry for 12yo's pocket, thanks for providing the liquidity though to make double the short v profitable. Thank you!

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12yo HFM
admin
September 13, 2016 at 4:38 PM ×

@Anon 4:29 - lol. When you get to my age you'll recognize a 'generational low' in the S&P when you see it ;)

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 4:55 PM ×



MM,

Retail here… have pretty much read your blog every day for eight of your last ten years.

To say that I have learned a lot, and have enjoyed the process thereof would be an massive understatement. I have been treated to an enormous education, served via wit and thoughtful discussion among well informed, persuasive, and oftentimes hilarious participants.

Many, thanks to you and to the community — and if you feel it appropriate, I would be happy to pay the freight for continued access, (as long as it is not too onerous, of course).

Wishing you and your (actual) family, as well as the virtual one here, many more wonderful years to come.

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 4:58 PM ×

Congrats MM, but I must say that making the blog a subscription service wouldn't be an optimal choice..
It would be fine if ads were added, or maybe the more well off readers could voluntarily pitch in with a donation or two..? I would be willing to donate as well, as I have been having a good run lately.

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northshore
admin
September 13, 2016 at 5:00 PM ×


@MM: Think first step is to determine what you want to be selling - time, commentary, data, tools, community?

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 5:04 PM ×

Congratulations on ten years, and (very belated) thanks for getting rid of that awful left sidebar (which never worked properly with my browser).

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Leftback
admin
September 13, 2016 at 5:09 PM ×

Noteworthy observations from Chart Watchers Anonymous: IYR, HYG and TLT are all making new lows today. Long bond auction ahead at 1pm, I believe. LB has been short TLT and IYR (added to these yesterday afternoon) and also HYG, IWM.

As someone noted yesterday, if this is indeed the beginning of what we think it is [the unwind of "Buy Anything, Front Run Central Banks"], then the only place to hide will be long USD and long vol. We bought December UUP calls yesterday as well.

With all the doves in flight, where does 12yoHFM look for support for his dip buying strategy? If a Fed hike is off the table, does he now expect to be saved by QE4/5? This seems optimistic, to say the least.

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hipper
admin
September 13, 2016 at 5:09 PM ×

Congrats MM. Even though haven't been writing much and I'm a bit superficial for a good chunk of the production (being a very simple retail eq holder/allocator) it's still been part of almost daily duty/routine for something in the tune of 4-5 years to check out about the Sherlocks, EDs and worrying CFET developments and especially all the brilliant comments from the sharp commentators shedding some light on where the wind might actually be blowing from this time. Whatever you wish to do GL, I've been enjoying it regardless of whether I'm actually capable of utilizing or not. I recall the call on GDX was one which I've been all sold out for a while. Thanks again, love it.

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12yo HFM
admin
September 13, 2016 at 5:17 PM ×

@LB - 2100 & 2000 are v nice support, 1800 is the 'Great Wall of Spooz' (designed to keep the barbarian hordes at bay). We will ofc follow retail best-practice and avg down at said junctures. As for your bond mkt comments... it must be said that your FI knowledge far exceeds mine, but you are wrong if you think the Fed will allow any real rate rise, or that some measly Japanese yield curve will bring down our hallowed stock markets. Anyway, may the best man/boy win, and to the victor the spoils! Peace.

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Leftback
admin
September 13, 2016 at 5:22 PM ×

Perhaps the best thing about the next week or so is: Fed blackout. What a relief to have a break from "Fed transparency"!

Not having to trade the utterances of each and every witless FOMC member is a real pleasure. How wonderful to be able to trade the market without fear of being hit by a Rising Bullard....

LB guarantees that there are people running money to do looking at the portfolio who have no clue how to respond to stocks and bonds going down together. [Did you think stocks and bonds rising was normal, f*ckwits?]

Later on we will check in with Pension Fund vol sellers Thad, Chad and Brad. LB is beginning to have some fun today.

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Eddie
admin
September 13, 2016 at 5:45 PM ×

Congratulations MacroMan!

Besides adding adds (for IB, maybe, or some BridgeWater funds) you could add a PayPal Donate button. Pretty sure some punters would offer a reward for your efforts (as long as they can afford it at least...).

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johno
admin
September 13, 2016 at 5:51 PM ×

Congratulations, MM. Wish I had known about the blog long ago! You do amazing work.

Good observation on yesterday's bond market action, MM. Made some money shorting WNZ6 this morning, but net a losing day from EM exposure. Apparently there's holiday too through the end of the week for Southbound volumes to HK from Shanghai, perhaps affecting H share performance. Chinese data actually positively surprised.

While I don't see vol spiking, we are certainly in a higher vol regime now. Dealers are short gamma (versus record long this summer), and the BoJ curve steepening means 1) risk parity guys are in trouble and may de-lever and 2) at the very least, there may be some sloppy trading as investors rotate away from bond-like stocks.




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Leftback
admin
September 13, 2016 at 5:58 PM ×

The Long Bond is falling and IYR is getting taken apart..... we have been warning punters to curb their enthusiasm in the REIT space, after a long summer of irrational exuberance among yield seekers.

Closed out IYR, TLT and IWM shorts here.

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Leftback
admin
September 13, 2016 at 6:13 PM ×

Auction weaker even than anticipated….? That will probably mark the end of the weakness in bonds - for today at least? The easy money was already in the bag by 1pm, in any case. Back to the Hammock for the rest of the day, for LB.

We now return you to the regularly scheduled 10- year Macro Man retrospective…. :-)

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macrogoldman
admin
September 13, 2016 at 6:16 PM ×

i do miss the portfolio from the good old days--id say bring it back and ill give you some money to manage rather than pay for access but sadly I can't invest enough to cover the reg costs of being a manager in this day and age ---arg what to do what to do---keep up the good work

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johno
admin
September 13, 2016 at 6:19 PM ×

LB @ 6:13. Maybe. I closed out WNZ6 short on the post-auction puke and went long small as a quick, quick trade. The funny thing is everyone (myself included) is now talking about the BoJ steepening, and yet, last night's 20Y JGB auction went off well. Suggests to me the Japanese maybe think the BoJ will be satisfied with this amount of steepening.

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12yo HFM
admin
September 13, 2016 at 6:31 PM ×

I hope ur all loading up on spooz at these generational lows. Come the close & tomorrow we'll be much, much higher led by the flight to safety into Nasdaq biotech stocks and the like...

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Anonymous
admin
September 13, 2016 at 6:32 PM ×

Congratulations, I sincerely hope you understand how much you have meant for so many little Macro boys growing up at the end of the debt supercycle and experiencing the troubled zirp teenage period.

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Panda
admin
September 13, 2016 at 7:19 PM ×

Congrats on the 10 year mark! I am both glad I found this site/community and wished I had only found it sooner.

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Fridjera
admin
September 13, 2016 at 7:34 PM ×

Well done last 10 years!
Reading for 3years now and rereading since start.
I'm positive about both ideas, a real webpage and the model portfolio!
Keep on the good work and thanks for those years.

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Matador
admin
September 13, 2016 at 7:47 PM ×

Also unable to post due to work place restrictions but follower from the very first posts (even bookmarked the US macroman site for a while) ...

Once more, congratulations and thanks for all the posts to you and the MM team which deserves massive credit for not letting this space die.

For what is worth, I also believe a subscription will see the comments drop massively and the comments are a big part of the MM offering. But you got to do what you got to do ... and I will probably follow.

Matador

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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 13, 2016 at 8:27 PM ×

Here's to ten more MM.

As for the markets, I covered my Spooz shorts this afternoon for a good profit. As I've made my case last friday, I think we should be renting the fear, not owning it. I mean, if this is the juncture where the wheels come off, then shoot me now (ha), as I just don't see it - with enough catalyst to bail the market out in the coming week.

With the dollar retesting the high at 95.50, I think this is where it stops/fails and pressures for hike abates now that we've cleaned out broader positions in the market place and have instilled enough doubt/fear to shakeout the complacency somewhat.

With my positions largely squared now, I'm ready to buy/leg-in overnight on any hint of decent price action during asia session or US session.


Congrats again MM. I admire your persistence and hardwork greatly. Well done.

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Fired Macro PM
admin
September 13, 2016 at 8:31 PM ×

In regards to the topic of subscription...

I would first urge the paypal donate button and see what that yields. Perhaps seeking out advertisers as well.

Mixture of the two might yield you a larger sum than a paywall. However either ways, you deserve all the good that could come out of your work :)

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Panda
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September 13, 2016 at 9:11 PM ×

Unless the bond selling continues at the current pace, it's hard to see spooz taking that nosedive we're all waiting for, especially with FOMC sitting around the corner ready to give it a good stim pack. Might be a good time to start sneaking in some longs in case things go 180 as usual.

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12yo HFM
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September 13, 2016 at 9:17 PM ×

@Panda always strikes me as an intelligent, like-able fellow... ;)

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abee crombie
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September 13, 2016 at 9:34 PM ×

Congrats MM. Big fan and the blog has helped my macro education a lot, and still learning every day.

Regarding subscription I think you can do a lot with the comments and community, even if there are a bunch of readers that cant post for work related reasons. Off the top of my head 1) Discussions/topics tend to be unorganized. You have LB (who has been on the money lately, thank you sir) talking about rates while someone else is talking about FX etc. And there is no continuity. Someone makes a good comment last week, maybe not everyone read it and its gone now. I dont have a quick fix off the top of my head but I think this would be a big help
2) In the same vein, it would be a lot easier to justify paying a subscription if you get something tangible. If you organize the site by asset or something along those lines, then provide models/reccomendations something for each asset class then its something a lot of ppl can say OK this is what I am paying for. I have my views on FX, but I pay $XX monthly to make sure I am not missing anything. Just a thought
3) As for a sub amount, under $500 a year would be your best bet IMO.. i think $250 is a sweet spot. But I would make sure to do a freemium site, where something is still left for all users

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abee crombie
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September 13, 2016 at 9:41 PM ×

German rates leading things here. I dont see much in the charts when looking at German 10 year until we get to 50bps or so. Correlations coming unhinged in many markets with Yen, gold etc and if it wasnt for the good news on AAPL, we'd be down more. Yes stocks are oversold but not massively so I dont see much in the way of support from stock pickers here. IMO we follow rates until ppl can figure out if this is a different regime or we get a big enough correction to bring in stock pickers.

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k1
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September 13, 2016 at 9:54 PM ×

Thanks for all the years, MM. This site continues to be my favorite market read.

Totally understand about the time investment involved in keeping this site going. I am fully on-board if you start taking subscriptions.

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Leftback
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September 13, 2016 at 9:54 PM ×

MM, you could have a Basic version and a Premium version which consists mainly of 12yo, Nico and LB arguing…. seriously, happy to chip in, but subscription model would definitely decrease the diversity of the commentary ecosystem.

We closed out short CADUSD and AUDUSD positions as well today. Time for de-risking the portfolio, or as we call it, Hammock Time. We never like to be doing much with op ex approaching - and if we are it's not usually a good sign for the P/L.

Apologies to the crowd, btw, for sometimes talking about what we want to talk about and being off topic, but after all, when the markets are open, isn't everything in play? I mean, other than political rants…. and it's not usually nonsense. Anyone who followed us on CAD, TLT, IYR this month probably made a boatload.

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Hotairmail
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September 13, 2016 at 10:21 PM ×

If you want suggestions...a fairly standard model might be: write, educate for free and keep comment as is for all (perhaps with 'donate' and adverts as suggested earlier...or get sponsorship from the likes of M&G Bondvigilantes or the FT say - get a list of supporters to display on your blog).

Then add on paid for models. You can develop your own way of dealing with that or you could use software such as via Portfolio123 (automated), Collective2 (can generate signals manually) or whatever.

You can use your site to update on the performance of the models in more detail and why, gaining confidence for people to enter into them alongside all your usual stuff. You could just have one that is simply "MM's Discretionary Model". Collective2 would be best for that and would allow for independent signal production and performance reporting which I think is a 'good thing'.

But of course, once you do this, expect (paying) 'customers'. You might have to change your strapline - "satisfaction guaranteed, or your money back".

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Anonymous
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September 13, 2016 at 10:22 PM ×

Shouldn't be much longer . . .

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=77gB

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AL
admin
September 13, 2016 at 11:03 PM ×

While I hear the objection that introducing some sort of membership would likely decrease the traffic in comments, I must say that I am surprised to see today some folks posting for the first time since ages ..... Which tells me that there is more than a decent number of silent and loyal readers that follow this blog daily as part of their routine.

On the advertising, I must admit, I am not too much convinced. It would take away the "pure" factor that has been one of the trademarks of this site (you know, that being "independant" that is so out of fashion today, but it's one of the greatest values of this space)... But hey, that's me.

I once proposed creating a fund, most of commentators laughed at the idea .... I still think it is doable.

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Anonymous
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September 13, 2016 at 11:56 PM ×

See MacroBusiness.com.au for a similar transition to paid subscribet base. I am too tight to subscribe so miss out on the paid subscriber content. Commentary tends to be a bit tin hat ZH style but that is their market.

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Anonymous
admin
September 14, 2016 at 12:41 AM ×

This retail punter living in isolation up in Alaska has really(!) appreciated the extraordinary effort, dedication, and just plain smarts that you have put into your blog and its associated community. I have been here for most of these past 10 years and I must say it has been a true pleasure and an education cum laude. Many, many thanks and props big-time. I am also in amazement as to how you do it!

In terms of funding, I like the possibility of crowdfunding your needs ... as one previous commenter intimated, there's probably a few folks here who could pony up some shekels or riyals or dinars or rupees, or at least know friends who could. I would hate to see a reduction in the commentary because of a subscription. BUT, that being all said, I'm in, any which way you do it.

Wishing you health, wealth, and another decade of MM!

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HR
admin
September 14, 2016 at 1:33 AM ×

Bravo MM

I'm an oil guy but I follow you guys for good peripheral vision. I've been reading since way before your move to low tax Connecticut. I even got you to put up the video on the omnibus spending bill.

Anyway, cheers to you all, government paper will soon be flushed in the toilet. Trade accordingly and best of luck to all of you.

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SRX
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September 14, 2016 at 3:14 AM ×

I can't believe I have been reading your stuff for 10 years. Congrats! Will you show us your positions like you used to? That was interesting to look at.

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fcp
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September 14, 2016 at 3:29 AM ×

Congrats MM and will subscribe, unless it's too exxy.

Recommend checking out https://stratechery.com/Ben gives one free article a week and 3-4 paid by subscription.

All very well organised, easy to pay and high quality - also on point more often than not.

No forum though. The reddit voting model is tried and tested.. The best comments and posts to rise to the top so it would be easier to catch up on things.

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Anonymous
admin
September 14, 2016 at 7:56 AM ×

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-the-top-no-wait-this-is-the-top-2016-07-21?link=sfmw_tw

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koolbong
admin
September 14, 2016 at 10:52 AM ×

Congrats on the 10th b'day MM!
... another of your long-time-reader-infrequent-commenters here...
like most rational people I like my lunches free but I recognize the fact that there is an economic cost to cooking up gourmet dishes... so count me in if you decide to go down the paid route...

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Anonymous
admin
September 15, 2016 at 8:20 AM ×

Hey MM,

Congrats on a great 10 job!

I would recommend two sources of revenues 1) placing ads on your blog and 2) a bitcoin address or paypal for voluntary donations

Good luck!

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Mossy
admin
September 15, 2016 at 10:44 AM ×

I would have two recommendations:

1. You can have a Patreon.com type approach where you get paid per post or month (!)

2. Memberful.com offers a robust system for membership management with easy members forum and wordpress/squarespace integration. You can find a good example at https://stratechery.com

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Wings
admin
September 15, 2016 at 3:22 PM ×

Good job w the 10 yrs.

I for one have been following this blog for abt half that time. Rarely do any commenting mainly due not having enough time. When English is not your mother tongue you got to put some effort in it to avoid sounding like a junior high school student. Plus with all the emails one is getting these days from banks it is sometimes hard to know what to think. That’s when I come here to read instead.

I wish MM succeeds with his thoughts and intentions. I look for short and quick when I read financial stuff on the web. Or fun while doing it (which is also why I like this blog and comments!)

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