Post-payroll bullets

* So in an economy where a job gain of 223k and an unemployment rate of 5.3% is seen as a disappointment, and Spooz remain close to all time highs, the Fed is still scared to leave ZIRP-world.  What are they waiting for- rainbow unicorns to appear bearing magic lemonade to make any rate hikes painless?

* Quelle surprise- Greece didn't pay.  So now the referendum is the latest "absolute, final line in the sand" event.  What will people do if the Greeks vote "yes" but Syriza cannot/will not cave into the Eurogroup's demands?

*  The turnaround in the euro the other day was oh-so predictable.   All Macro Man had to do was leave an offer, which he missed getting filled on by 5 pips.

* Macro Man is being dragged into the present decade kicking and screaming.  He now finds himself doing more quick hits on Twitter than he previously imagined possible.   Follow along @Macr0man if you aren't already.
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Anonymous
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July 2, 2015 at 1:49 PM ×

MM - get yourself a tweetdeck and build a list of quality posters/journo's.

Better than any newsfeed.

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Leftback
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July 2, 2015 at 2:11 PM ×

Ah, so that's what you've been up to....
Closed some modest-sized yet cheeky TLT and NBG options punts we opened on Monday. It's back to the Hammock now.

Happy 4th everyone, Greek Panto continues through Monday [likely through the mid-August debt payment].

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Anonymous
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July 2, 2015 at 2:28 PM ×

kicking and screaming into the current decade --- describes my experience to a T in recent months.

Here's a good Greece twitter list composed of quality posters/journo's. I stopped using it once my end game (capital controls) occurred Saturday. Still useful for watching the current government's death throws.

https://twitter.com/10mz9n48xnns93N/lists/greece-1

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Anonymous
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July 2, 2015 at 4:49 PM ×

Greece hangs in the abyss. Next Europe could disintegrate. China is coming unhinged. Japan is facing a demographics/debt crisis (as is Europe and the US). Everyone should read this:
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10th-man/it-could-never-happen-here

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Anonymous
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July 2, 2015 at 6:47 PM ×

http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/2/8877203/this-man-is-building-a-stock-exchange-that-will-screw-you-over-less

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Anonymous
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July 2, 2015 at 7:39 PM ×

Common macro man, you should have an instagram account as well, along with snapchat and a fb page so we can all "like" it ;-) Perhaps even a Yelp one too

If players in the market wanted a short answer before, the social media generation just wants to flip through ideas ala tinder. So much so for analysis, though I'm sure one day it will matter.

Hopefully after this weekend we can get a solution to Greece but I doubt it.

MM, where is the inflation? This is the reason the Fed is in no hurry to raise rates. Better to take GS's advice and err on the side of caution. Plus the bond market is steepining for them

abee

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Leftback
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July 3, 2015 at 2:37 PM ×

Relief rally on Grextension this week, followed by a massive crash in China with a dash of Asian contagion? A lot of people are watching the wrong markets. Volatility in Shanghai is now close to what we experienced in the US in September 2008, 7% swings are nothing to worry about, right?

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Anonymous
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July 3, 2015 at 3:40 PM ×

The intraday swings are something else in there. Not good. Greece bad for Europe, US heavy on dovish FED and China bad for everyone.

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Anonymous
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July 4, 2015 at 4:23 PM ×

LB,

Well, QE by PBOC is inevitable. BTW, could you please suggest a good book on REIT market? Thanks.

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washedup
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July 4, 2015 at 5:07 PM ×

"Well, QE by PBOC is inevitable"

anon 4:23 - QE as we know it doesn't really apply to an economy like China, since there is no market in long dated bonds accessed by a central treasury whose interest rates then drive prices for loans and consumer borrowing - loosening and economic stimulus in China, would amount to 1) a green light on long dated investment projects 2) loosening of reserve requirements (already underway) and 3) crucially, a lowered scrutiny on the quality of provincial projects and rollback of the corruption campaign - the way this was supposed to work was that as the overheated property sector was cooled down, the equity market was going to be a crucible of capitalism a la western economies through IPOs and aid in the transition to a non Govt diktat economy.
The equity market rally was a means to an end, but I highly doubt anyone in Beijing said, hey, lets send the index to 10000 and that will make everyone honest, manage a soft landing, and achieve a transition to a non export led economy - the economy was going to be a disaster anyway, this would keep the masses distracted in a limited way.
However, given the behavioral finance lesson that crashes create more negative sentiment than rallies create positive sentiment (also known as loss aversion) the next step here will be either a panicked retreat into the same old over-investment strategy that was tried in 2008 post GFC, or a homespun admission that China's growth rate would need to be managed down further.
Quite the tiger by the tail scenario, with a zero chance of being managed deftly by apparatchiks in Beijing who have no idea what they are dealing with - the fact that they are effectively now 20% of the global economy makes it everyone's problem in short order.

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Anonymous
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July 4, 2015 at 7:09 PM ×

anon 4:23 here.

Washedup, I have to disagree with you on a few points: While the equity market rally in China is a means to an end, I believe it is a different end from your understanding of distracting the masses. The purpose IMO is to use the rally to induce capital to SOEs through IPO. Thus they may have a chance to fix the debt problem on balance sheets of SOEs. Well, it mostly failed so far.

The QE from PBOC should function differently from QEs in the US. The QE could, like BOJ's QE, be used to buy equity market index funds to act a last buyer. Or, QE could be used to buy local governments' debts directly. They are not there yet. But I think that they will be forced to choose this route after every other solution fails. A government fund to stabilize the market has just been created. It is the first step and I am sure it is not enough.

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washedup
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July 4, 2015 at 11:07 PM ×

Very good points anon 4:23 - yes i took some creative license there - quite ironic then, isn't it, that the latest strategy of 'stabilizing' the equity market needs to involve an interruption in IPOs?
You are also right in local Govt debt being effectively PBoC backstopped eventually - problem is that there is a LOT of it - and its not well covenanted - and its backed by land where unprofitable steel mills now stand - I could go on and on. Also, if every middle class man woman and child in China ended up owning some equity in poorly run SOEs (sounds like you agree thats part of the strategy to reduce effective leverage) then that would change their exposure from real estate and shady wealth management products to something that moves on a daily basis - the culture in China where no safety net exists is not particularly geared to 2% a day fluctuations in personal net worth, let alone the recent 7%.
Quite amazing how people talk about China being a threat to US hegemony, when they are clearly willing to bet their economic future on the fully Made in America Bernanke/Krugman precept that you cure debt through more debt - it could be the best way for DMs, but I insist that for a country like China with its unique economy , there is no solution other that plain old infrastructure spending - problem is they tried that already and all it did was create a commodity deflation source for the next decade.
And yes I also agree this stabilization fund will be the first of many salvos to fight what will most likely be a losing battle.

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Anonymous
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July 5, 2015 at 7:24 AM ×

outstanding summary of the roots of the greek crisis and the larger ramifications : http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/5965.html

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River
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July 5, 2015 at 6:50 PM ×

@Anon(7:09) and Wasthed(11:07)

Thanks for your thoughts on China, and washed's occasional musings about India. Since my family owns real estate in both Canada and India..China matters a lot to us!

Here are some tidbits about Greece, if anyone cares:

"I came across this fascinating note from my friend Dennis Gartman Friday morning, on where Greek bank debt actually resides:

Which nations’ banks have the greatest exposure... Leading the way is Turkey, and that really shouldn’t be all that surprising given the geography involved. The others are, in billions of dollars:

Turkey $32 billion

Romania 15 billion

Cyprus 10 billion

Bulgaria 10 billion

The UK 10 billion

Serbia 5 billion

The Marshall Islands 4 billion

Liberia (really?!!) 3 billion

Germany 2 billion

The US 2 billion

Liberia? Really? Liberia? We can understand Turkey; and we can understand Romania and Cyprus having reasonable exposures, but the modest sums involving the US and Germany rather surprised us. But again, Liberia? Haven’t they enough problems at home with Ebola and corruption? Have Liberia’s banks really had to go abroad and to Greece of all places? Again, sometimes you cannot make this stuff up".
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/a-week-of-unseen-things

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River
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July 5, 2015 at 8:17 PM ×

So who is next to fly out of this group of P.I.G.S?

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Anonymous
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July 5, 2015 at 9:04 PM ×

Podemos - it's who the EU fears.

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hipper
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July 5, 2015 at 9:35 PM ×

Is that a trumpet I hear? And drums? What's that dust rising beyond the hill? Is that cavalry I see running this way? Is that Super Mario waving his sword in the air? SNB EUR buy team is already probably getting called off as we speak.

I don't want to say too much re. the G-words because I already exceeded the quota for the next 6 months but only that whatever depression mode mr. Market will now go into will be on false premises, being the worst of the worst base case. The mandate was given and nothing more to be done. Either eurocrats grow up and deal with it or risk a contagion after which they wish they would've done it when there was still time. Well actually given the stubbornness so far that's not completely out of the question either, then it'd become "the problem the market was looking for".

Thanks for bringing up China guys. Really good stuff. Now that's something worthy to really worry about. Party like almost Sep 2008 and no one noticing? How long will DM's defy the laws of financial spill over physics?

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Anonymous
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July 5, 2015 at 10:51 PM ×

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/05/us-eurozone-greece-markets-idUSKCN0PF13320150705

Euro equity markets, which had one of their worst weeks of 2015 last week, were set for another selloff [after the Greek NO vote].

"The ECB has the capacity to limit the spread of contagion. But we might still see a fall of 3 percent on European markets on Monday," said Antonin Jullier, head of equity trading strategy at Citi.

Asked whether there would be a big market hit come Monday, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, said: "Yes, you will see one. With the extent and duration a function of whether the ECB steps in with new anti-contagion measures."

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Anonymous
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July 6, 2015 at 1:17 AM ×

Responding to the no vote, Sarah-Jayne Clifton, director of the Jubilee Debt Campaign, said: “This is a historic defeat for austerity in Europe. Despite all the scaremongering, bullying and intimidation, the people of Greece have chosen hope over fear. Now, it is time for Europe’s leaders to respect democracy and take responsibility for a crisis that their banks and financial institutions helped create. Greece needs substantial debt cancellation, as even the IMF has finally acknowledged. This will require honesty from European leaders that the real purpose of the bailouts was to save European banks. And it will require the type of leadership we saw from their counterparts in 1953 when they cancelled half of Germany’s debt. Justice, and democracy, demand nothing less.”

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Leftback
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July 6, 2015 at 3:15 AM ×

Your move, Messrs Dijsselbloem, Schäuble, Draghi.....the Greeks have spoken. Mangler Merkel's phone is going to be ringing. DB first on the line asking how the f*ck this sh*tshow was allowed to get this bad and what the f*ck you are going to do.....?

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Leftback
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July 6, 2015 at 3:20 AM ×

Of course.... Funny Money (and some of the rest of us) will simply be looking for a nice entry point to buy STOXX ahead of the inevitable liquidity injection. Still can't rule out a Grollover, Grextension etc., now that bondholders are looking at the prospect of real losses.

Somewhat surprised with the NO vote by the Greeks, but also pretty happy they did. They are temporarily f*cked if the banks close, but the Troika are seriously f*cked at this point.

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Nico G
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July 6, 2015 at 6:45 AM ×

@River

among the many things Mauldin has no idea of, is shipping. Liberia is connected to Greece through shipping

the fact that so many are surprised by the NO vote really shows how wrong most have read the Greek saga from day one

if you were a responsible hedgie you had to buy a roundtrip airfare to Athens, spend a week talking to locals, and get the real true colors for yourself -. much cheaper than most investment letters

the mother of all entry points is 3000 Stoxx but like most mothers of invention of entry points it might not materialize

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Nico G
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July 6, 2015 at 7:42 AM ×

funny money i am in at 3322 market is 53/54 i give it to you at 59 if you can't wait them lots will go fast

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Skippy
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July 6, 2015 at 10:15 AM ×

Having been in Athens for meetings a couple of weeks ago, I am a little surprised by the outcome. However, my inner anarchist/libertarian is pleased they did. Like LB, I am also looking to pick up some European equities.

European earnings revisions are positive for the first time in five years. They are also rising from a low base (well below normalized levels). The credit transmission mechanism appears to be working for the first time in four years and other leading indicators are consistent with a very sharp pick up in growth. The correction over the past few weeks is probably a nice re-calibration of beliefs and overbought conditions.

Looking forward to the Ashes....

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FunnyMoney
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July 6, 2015 at 11:20 AM ×

@Leftback: Exactly - Dax up circa +200 points since the EU open, as you predicted :)
@Nico: I bought FDAX this morning rather than FESX, but a similar play to last week. Also bought EURUSD at 1.0996 last night, for a nice bounce.

Flat on everything now, and enjoying the sunshine. Wish it was always this easy.

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Leftback
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July 6, 2015 at 12:20 PM ×

I still am expecting some kind of Grextension to emerge over the next two weeks. The best deal to be made here would be one that allows for some Greek growth mainly by not asphyxiating spending by the major consumer groups in the country (pensioners, civil servants, tourists - this is NOT a manufacturing economy). That means, obviously, less Austerity now, vague noises about more Austerity later to keep the Germans happy, and all of the big payment deadlines rolled back several years to allow for some measure of recovery. Haircuts are going to be very unpopular, so look for maturity extension to be the major tool employed in the deal. Of course, as with all debt renegotiation deals, this will postpone possible write downs, but also allows for some of the debt to be inflated away, in part as a consequence of a structurally weaker Euro over the next decade or so. Just guessing here....

Above all, the Greek vote is a vote against Schäuble as the poster child for German intransigence. Varoufakis 1 Schäuble 0. Just as Varoufakis has resigned, look for Schäuble to be taken out of the negotiations from here.

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Gnome of Zurich
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July 6, 2015 at 12:28 PM ×

Why is the Troika f*cked? The No vote makes it a lot easier to kick Greece out. Write down the debts 2022 or whenever they actually become due. ECB will print up the remaining spare change.

The domino theories are so 2012... For some time, Germany and Central Europe have become subscribers to the chain theory, with the weakest link now about to go. EUR seems to confirm this.

As for the poor Greeks, their government is probably still too stupid and lazy to setup a new currency. Bank bail-ins are probably next or the banks will be forever frozen and the tourism season lost. Everything above 10,000 EUR might be converted into new shares, Cyprus-style. The end of the middle class, if there ever was such a thing.

So I am remaining a buyer of EUR, PIS banks and especially Central Europe. Where else do you find >3% GDP growth and 6% yields these days?

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FunnyMoney
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July 6, 2015 at 12:40 PM ×

Amusing...
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/618013202375380992

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Polemic
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July 6, 2015 at 12:45 PM ×

rather than type out all my thoughts on greece again they are here -http://polemics-pains.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/tsipras-after-varousectomy-jaffa-or.html

And thanks Gnome for the comment on the greek quotes

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washedup
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July 6, 2015 at 12:47 PM ×

Rather struck by the tsunami of BTFD sentiment on this board today - so much for buy when there is blood on the streets - looks like now people start lining up funds when they hear rumors of a shaving accident 5 neighborhoods away.
I will just reiterate how much I love that the macabre dance between chinese equities (a.k.a the man eating tiger) and chinese regulators (a.k.a. the glum and wounded tamer) is a side show because of greece (a.k,a the ticket seller who lures people into the circus). I will leave the final act to your imaginations.
Nico that little nugget on Liberia was very interesting - this board has this habit of tossing things at you just when you were getting smug in your knowledge of life, the universe, and everything - thanks for that.

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Leftback
admin
July 6, 2015 at 1:52 PM ×

This is quite good on Greece. I am going to read Polemic next..

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-kuttner/just-say-no_4_b_7732522.html

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Anonymous
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July 6, 2015 at 3:14 PM ×

LB: "Varoufakis has resigned"

He was shown the door.

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Polemic
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July 6, 2015 at 3:20 PM ×

Shown the door? More like shown a close up of the front wheels of a bus.

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Anonymous
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July 6, 2015 at 3:44 PM ×

"Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my ‘absence’ from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance today."

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/

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Leftback
admin
July 6, 2015 at 4:00 PM ×

Getting away from the obvious topic, LB suggests that the trades of Q3 might be similar to last year. Any ECB-assisted fudge, combined with ongoing QE, will likely weaken the Euro. So after an initial knee jerk and squeeze, EURUSD probably drifts lower, eventually becoming caught in a rip tide and sucked into the September FOMC vortex, with the 1,00-1,05 range potentially in play. Perhaps MM has a view on this.

USD higher seems like a no-brainer and with the dollar, supply and seasonal factors all in play together, another lurch lower in the oil price seems like a good bet. One more bout of curve steepening is also likely to go along with this if we assume a Grextension deal of the type being touted by Galbraith, Krugman and others (and in this case, they're not wrong!). If China really does experience a crash or hard stop of some kind, then oil will plummet and all rates bets are off.

All of that having been said, we will try hard to avoid all of our favorite EM, energy, REIT and PM vehicles until such time as the next rates/Bucky surge is complete, and the outlook in China is clearer. If and when the rate hike does materialize, the Q4 trade will probably be Sell The News in USD. As always, patience is going to be rewarded in 2015. It's been a very long hammock session..... (but we weren't wrong!). Some years you have to make a few % early on and then sit and look at it.

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washedup
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July 6, 2015 at 5:51 PM ×

left - agree with the short oil idea in fact thats been underway for the last few days - not so sure about bucky though - feels like every rally in it gets sold, and there seems to be a lot of justified pessimism about the ability of the us economy to exhibit strong growth in Q3 - 2% ain't gonna cut it for the dollar to make new highs. The tallest midget argument can only get you so far I think.
Like you said the other day - opportunities are coming - just don't know what they are yet. Reminds me of the readers digest mailers from the 80's.
And Pol - very cogent blog post today - if i could take writing lessons from you I would.

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Anonymous
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July 6, 2015 at 6:07 PM ×

The Germans...

Have played this perfectly. Greece has been completely marginalized. Note to the rest of the PIIGS, mess with our Europe and you will be effectively shut down, no banking system, no food and no medicine.

As far as I can see there are no consequences to the "referendum" except for Greeks who I feel sorry for. Intervention in the markets have worked and preserved orderly markets to boot. For the moment there is nothing to see here.

Greece was outclassed.

And the whole situation p*sses me off to no end but it is what it is. There should be consequences for actions but I guess just not yet. I can relate to the previous posters comment about people lining up for a shaving accident 5 streets over. Ultimately German exporters will be happy with eur/usd around 1.05 but for the right reasons and not a crisis of confidence. So be it. I'm going to the garden now for a beer and doing my breathing exercises.

PH

PS: Looking for cheap property in Greece.

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Anonymous
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July 6, 2015 at 6:16 PM ×

Nomura’s Janjuah sees “significant short, sharp but large” (15%-20%) correction over course of Q3 and going into Q4

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Anonymous
admin
July 6, 2015 at 6:45 PM ×

"China Bans Selling Of Stocks By Pension Funds" - Hahaha f*ckwits. Looks like they took advice from the Fed. Hope this markets crashes 10,000 pts and wipes them all out.

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Leftback
admin
July 6, 2015 at 6:45 PM ×

Bob Jamjar has called 37 of the last 5 corrections. You know what, though, he might be right this time?

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Anonymous
admin
July 6, 2015 at 6:51 PM ×

love how janjuah comes tumbling out of the cupboard rubbing his eyes every time the market looks like it may go down only to crawl back in during the next short squeeze/rally/central bank intervention. I don't know whether to feel bad for him or marvel at the fact anyone still listens to him.
over the course of Q3 and Q4 eh? way to stick your neck out on specificity Bob.

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Anonymous
admin
July 6, 2015 at 7:22 PM ×

The ECB just tightened the screws on Greece:
http://www.businessinsider.com/ecb-maintains-emergency-assistance-to-greece-2015-7

Watch the Nazi EU destroy the Greek people for daring to hold a democratic election.

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Anonymous
admin
July 6, 2015 at 8:07 PM ×

I know that it is late for the Greek event. But hey, since Greek is f**k either way for now, it might just well get rid of EUR. This way at least they have their own CB and not to be bullied by the ECB who really does not give a sh*t about Greece.

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Leftback
admin
July 6, 2015 at 9:20 PM ×

Podemos are watching all this. Watching and learning..... am old enough to remember a time when Spain, Portugal and Greece were all basically under fascists. We can debate the differences between EU "technocrats" and fascists some time. Germany defaulted on its debt once, let me see who was that? Oh yes, it was 1933. How peculiar are the memories of Germans...



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hipper
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July 6, 2015 at 10:03 PM ×

What a crazy shafting for EM and commodities. Vietnam has been pretty much the only bright spot I think. Total paralysis in Europe, the FOMC vortex and China all beginning to really add up here. One might also think that the crazy Shanghai casino collapse might have quite a bit negative influence on Chinese consumer confidence and thus put a very visible dent in the plans of getting rid of the relience on exports through increasing "internal consumption", if the reports are true of how many common folks just started getting in.

Re oil markets, off shore drillers are looking to be in pretty deep doodoo here. Not sure it's a case of even Darwinism and the survival of the fittest anymore, but rather is it evolving to an extinction-of-the-dinosaurs type of event. Some kind of lag was to be expected being long term contracts but only a short term price recovery blip isn't enough to straighten the dent done to exploration CAPEX. But I'm sure one day there will again be a time for big integrated oil/mining again.

Mind you I have minimal faith on FOMC delivering and I'd like to imagine that the market patience is beginning to thin out as well in this regard, as is the Fed opportunity window to act.

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Mr. T
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July 7, 2015 at 8:30 AM ×

Can't complain about a lack of newsflow. China is going from bad to ugly. Seems unlikely that this will not have an impact on the 'real' economy. With almost 30% of the market cap of the country now officially halted (by company request) the declines may slow, but this is the definition of "uninvestable" for the rest of the world. MSCI really dodged a bullet for themselves and a huge chunk of investors by waiting for inclusion.

The European drama continues, as always. Maybe I'm fatigued from the constant crisis, but its becoming more of the European normal than a discrete set of events. At this point I don't think it really matters much anyways, at least not compared to the shitshow in china.

US markets continue to show strength relative to the rest of the DM world. When you drill down just a little bit and see the bifurcation of returns inside indexes its remarkable that they continue to grind higher. The E&P sector has been killed, and it looks like its not over yet. Non-oil energy names in gas, coal, solar are trading like death. Look at CHK as an example - this is a really big name and success of these companies is critical to the gas pivot. Much of the energy space appears to be in slow balance sheet trainwreck mode. It's not an insignificant amount of debt, and in quite a few of the markets even post restructuring its not clear they will be generating positive cashflow. Chevron yielding north of 4.5% now, and no takers.

On rates and the fed, I have to wonder if there is some head scratching going on with the worst-case outcome for Greece, and the giant yawn from markets as the robots continue playing pingpong. Is anyone at the Fed saying "this is what we waited for? This is the global instability that causing us to be behind the curve?" Another game of guess-the-policy-response that I'm losing patience with.

I'm doing my part and trying to play the game but its been choppy. I see opportunity in a mispricing between a dollar of chevrons earnings vs a dollar of facebooks (or any of the 'haves') earnings, but the trade simply does not work. Winner take all economy seems to be charging forward with very little opposition from the traditional corners.

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Polemic
admin
July 7, 2015 at 8:32 AM ×

Never underestimate the EUs ability to anaesthetise a problem away through length of process and complexity of solution.

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Leftback
admin
July 7, 2015 at 12:04 PM ×

Here comes that dollar surge we talked about. US markets still Teflon, while no amount of Kevlar would tempt me into China.

Let's forget Greece and talk China, which is taking centre stage. As we all remember from 2008, shorting bans and calls for "selling bans" never seem to have the right effect on investor confidence. At some point the China crash was always going to spur safe haven buying by Asian investors and we might be getting to that point. Imagine how much bigger the boom/bust there would have been if MSCI had made the wrong decision and a raft of global managers had been forced to buy in a few weeks back. What a house of cards. Now we are seeing all the usual repercussions of an EM market implosion. The China bust has made emerging market ETFs temporarily uninvestable (since a major component of EEM and VWO is now broken), and the ensuing dollar surge is really doing a number on the entire energy and commodity complex yet again. This is going to create some more wonderful opportunities in EM and energy at some point, but we have all seen these selling frenzies last for ages.

To close the circle, it's not impossible that the chaos unleashed by China's bubble bursting will provide the impetus for the EU to fudge another deal with Greece to create the illusion of stability. Where all this leaves Dame Janet is an open question.

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Winginit
admin
July 7, 2015 at 12:16 PM ×

Anyone else has a bad feeling about this new get together of Greece and EU. I have misjudged this more than once lately so im gonna stay put. But I am itching to sell some euro stocks right now.

Paper trade it is then...

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Leftback
admin
July 7, 2015 at 12:25 PM ×

LB just thinks that punters will sell EURUSD until the cows come home here, or until the EU stops sitting on its arse with its digits rectally inserted and comes up with a few measly $B for another roll of Greek duct tape to get us all through the July and August payment schedule which are the most meaningful issues immediately ahead of us. This is becoming quite asinine.

As someone pointed out yesterday, there are plenty of people happy to see EURUSD trade down to 1.05 or below. It's going to be a tremendous relief rally in Stoxx once people come to their senses. German interests will benefit, of course....

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Gnome of Zurich
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July 7, 2015 at 12:28 PM ×

Mr. T, look at the coal stocks to see the endgame for most energy E&P companies. Many will become almost worthless equity stubs under a mountain of debt.

I still don't get peoples fixations with producers dividend yield when all of it was payed out of new debt even at $100 oil as there never was any free cash flow. All the majors will have to cut their dividends sooner or later. Shell's acquisition of BG will become one of the dumbest mergers of all time...

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Gnome of Zurich
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July 7, 2015 at 12:32 PM ×

I am having the strong impression that today is the official Grexit day. Reading the German press, there's not the slightest chance of a last minute deal.

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Winginit
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July 7, 2015 at 1:11 PM ×

LB: Also waiting for the EURUSD to trade lower. And, an eventual relief rally. This whole Greece focus is getting old
Gnome: The other EU ministers seem pretty firm as well. Well, in the end the Djermans get the last word I guess.

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Anonymous
admin
July 7, 2015 at 2:18 PM ×

Maybe its the contrarian in me, or the fact that I hear too many ppl wanting to BTFD (outside of this board), but I think we are in for real trouble here. I bought some Yen as insurance, a lot cheaper than paying away roll cost on VIX...

I am waiting for the shoe to drop in oil as well. Unlike coal which is going to be marginalized as a use of energy, I think oil is still going to be here for a while, though Tesla and the likes are doing a great job of making me reconsider. But when that shoe does drop I think some US MLP's will be a great buy. US Nat gas isnt going away, that is for sure

A nice unwind of some M&A arb in chinese listed ADRs is underway as well. If that spills over into the rest of the hedge fund M&A land, watch out.

I'm not trying to be like Janjuah and pounding the table, but I do see the same warning signs. My suggestion is start making your shopping list if we do get a big decline and have enough cash. Otherwise I am sitting tight for now but if I had more time I'd be doing what FM is...swing trade this market.

abee

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Anonymous
admin
July 7, 2015 at 2:43 PM ×

Varoufakis does China...

1/4 of all companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen (>700) have filed requests to halt their shares from trading

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Anonymous
admin
July 7, 2015 at 2:58 PM ×

All is well...

Iron Ore from $62+ to $49.60 in 7 trading days

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