Any change at all?

So Fed day is here, but Macro Man isn't entirely convinced that we're going to get a tip of the hand either way from Yellen and co.   At this juncture September is clearly live but far from a done deal, consistent with the message that the Fed gave last month and in the intervening period.

It's not exactly like the evolution of key inputs has been overwhelmingly skewed in one direction or the other, either.   Since the day before the last Fed meeting, this has what's happened to a number of inputs (or something like them) that they are likely considering:

In what should surprise almost nobody, the general theme is that that labour markets continue to strengthen, growth is decent but not spectacular, and inflationary pressures look pretty nonexistent.   Call it six weeks as a microcosm of the last six years.

If rates were already, say, 2%, one could on perhaps argue that on balance that the inputs may skew ever so slightly towards standing pat.   However, it does seem as if a number of the Federales have come to grips with the idea that escaping ZIRP is a worthy goal in and of itself, so Macro Man is happy to call it a push.

We probably won't get the the clarion heads up that we got in the last cycle- to refresh the memory of the old salts (and educate the 20 somethings who've never seen a rate hike), the money line of the May 2004 statement was:

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. Similarly, the risks to the goal of price stability have moved into balance. At this juncture, with inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.

Of course, the Fed already exhumed "measured" when it came to characterizing the pace of the taper, so it's dubious they'd pull the same trick again on rates.   No, the more your author thinks about it, the more it feels like that any change will be fairly nuanced, an acknowledgement of the passage of time as much as any thing else.

As for markets, it's probably an "as you were"- one eye out for China and commodities, and the other on a hammock on a beach somewhere nice.
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Mr. T
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July 29, 2015 at 8:26 AM ×

..but rates are not anywhere close to 2%. If we play another game where we don't know FFR and try to guess it from the data noone would guess zero. I don't think its a stretch to look under the hood in markets and see plenty of negative effects from ZIRP - not just "asset inflation" which plenty of people see as a good thing. The commodities meltdown in particular should raise some eyebrows - a scenario that has ZIRP-driven-capacity written all over it creating deflationary pressures. That's not supposed to happen, right? Isn't the spectrum the doves are working off that lower rates create inflation? That makes for an easy binary choice when you are targeting higher inflation, but if the choice becomes more nuanced - lower rates creates asset inflation and real-economy deflation - what is the right policy choice? Taken to the logical next step, if the fed wanted to create commodity inflation, the right choice is much higher rates that knocks out a chunk of production. And is commodity deflation really going to be contained? Are lower feedstocks just going to produce higher margins for the direct commodity consumers, or are the refiners and chemical companies going to lower prices, with the inevitable creep across the supply chain?

Alas, fed heads seldom see things the way I do. I suspect if the party line before was "lower oil prices are net good", that also means that lower prices for all other commodities is also a net good. Just don't ask the producers what they think.

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Macro Man
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July 29, 2015 at 1:09 PM ×

Mr. T- Oh, I agree. From a blank sheet of paper, I don't think that many people would argue that today's economic circumstances mandate zero rates. And you touch on one of my most consistent beefs with ZIRP/QE- persistent mispricing of capital leads to persistent misallocation of capital...and that has unintended (and rarely good) consequences.

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Bruce in Tennessee
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July 29, 2015 at 2:21 PM ×

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-29/russell-napier-asks-what-happens-when-markets-realize-china-forced-seller-treasurys

PBOC liquidation of Treasuries to support the RMB exchange rate would not be prolonged. Both the US and China would recognize the dreadful dynamics inherent in such a policy if it did indeed push Treasury yields higher. Very soon China would be given the permission to devalue its exchange rate and the nature of the pain to be endured by the global system would be of a somewhat lesser and somewhat different nature. It would, however, still be a deflationary adjustment.

One day we will tell those much younger than ourselves that once upon a time there was a large economy that ran a surplus on both its current account and on its capital account for more than twenty consecutive years. We will tell them, when they’re sitting comfortably, that because it went on for twenty years everyone assumed it would go on forever, despite the fact that such a thing had never ever been seen before. Then one day it ended. And the world thought that this would pass or, if it didn’t pass, they thought that it was not of great import.

Only years later did the world realise that the end of unsustainable double surpluses in China triggered what became known as The Great Reset. It all began with the sudden realisation that developed-world central bankers had no magic wand with which to reflate the world if China was forced to deflate or devalue. The first sign that the monetary love of developed world central bankers would ultimately be in vain was the collapse of commodity prices in 2015. What came next did not involve the words ‘happily’ ‘ ever’ and ‘after’.

...Well, I read ZH too..(I don't read it just for the centerfold!), but it does seem to me back to the discussion about gold, that it isn't a disinflationary hedge as some anonymous poster mentioned...if today's economic circumstances are anything like the above, I think we can count on real difficulty in the emerging markets..

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JohnL
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July 29, 2015 at 3:12 PM ×

Here is a nice lazy day hammock read in a similiar vain.

https://www.scribd.com/doc/272936057/272660136-Raoul-Pal-GMI-July2015-Monthly

I think this video goes along with it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nggWTNLFifA

Have a great day, eh.

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FunnyMoney
admin
July 29, 2015 at 7:16 PM ×

So...
- No hike from the Fed
- (and the BOE are downplaying any rate rises also)
- and stocks are up strongly from the dip I last mentioned
I don't wanna say "I told you so", but... "I told you so".
Have a nice evening.

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Macro Man
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July 29, 2015 at 7:25 PM ×

Ummmm...I don't think you're allowed to claim victory for "predicting" an outcome (no Fed rate hike) that literally 100% of the market expected.

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Anonymous
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July 29, 2015 at 7:46 PM ×

Not so fast MM - if you look at FunnyMoney's note carefully, his real forecasting ability shines through in the later comment, 'have a nice evening'.

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Mr. T
admin
July 29, 2015 at 8:00 PM ×

The lack of forward guidance - does that mean sep is off the table, or does it mean they want to let the data do the talking and give them the flexibility to respond? Either way, I'm genuinely shocked that 12 experts in a room can generate unanimous consensus about this decision. What kind of sample bias do I have with my peers to have so many asking "what the hell are they waiting for" while this group of 12 has a totally different view. If this was a question of national security I would guess they have access to information the public does not have, but in this case I think ours is as good (if not better) than they are working off.

I think we are seeing a little short covering in the USD crosses but the short side is looking like a pretty good trade.



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Nico G
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July 29, 2015 at 8:08 PM ×

i just had a nice evening ! that FM prediction worked too. amazing.

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Leftback
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July 29, 2015 at 9:40 PM ×

September hike clearly still on the table, although it is still "data dependent". Starting tomorrow we are going to get a week or so of data for which the risk is primarily to the upside, GDP might be stronger than anticipated, for example. Bond and equity bulls have one big problem ahead of them, namely, August, a month in which the short end of the curve has to decide whether it is going to call Dame Janet's bluff, or not. Although we are not unsympathetic to the views of those who say "no rate hike in 2015", like Mr Gundlach, the risks inherent in this position are much too large for us to assume, so we remain securely in the Hammock while looking for an occasional trade.

MM framed the debate quite nicely this morning, not just "any change at all?", but "if not now, when?". It's not clear what the Fed might be waiting for. 1% unemployment? 5% GDP? 4% CPI? The dangers of waiting are just now probably beginning to outweigh those of standing pat. We do think that the second hike will be a long way off. The other significant aspect of the statement was that there is zero indication of the balance sheet being reduced, which is of great importance for Treasuries, MBS, REITs etc.

Keep an eye on the front end, everything from the 2y to the FFR. There is a danger of significant dislocations if the markets fail to adjust ahead of the September meeting, and we think f/i adjustment will be the story of August, as it was in 2013. Mr Market is quite clearly not ready for a rate hike, and he has relatively little time to prepare.

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Anonymous
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July 29, 2015 at 10:10 PM ×

to LB,

Yields of 1m and 3m have risen since the beginning of July. Market seemed to have made some adjustment already.

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Anonymous
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July 29, 2015 at 10:44 PM ×

Great link John

sums it up really


And then there is the other elephant in the room…
If you want to know the risk of having the supposed best balance sheet in Europe then just look at the derivative exposure of Deutsche Bank. Their derivative book is 100% of world GDP.

Just take that in for a moment. One bank has more derivatives on its balance sheet than all of the worlds sovereign debts added together. Sure, most are netted off, until they aren’t.

I stand by my view that DB will likely go bust in the next down-cycle and the Germans will haveegg all over their faces when they have to bail out their own, and see their own debts to GDP explode

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FunnyMoney
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July 29, 2015 at 10:53 PM ×

@MM, Anon, Nico: Yes, v droll. Whilst I wish I could share in your comedic prowess, I will instead turn our attention to the 3rd item on my note, namely an SP500 chart showing my last trade posn posted on this blog: http://imgur.com/QHkgvG5

What a terrible prediction that was! Have a good evening.

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Nico G
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July 30, 2015 at 6:12 AM ×

great stuff anon 1044

Germans shat in their pants in 2008-2009 and a mysterious bail out of Deutsche Bank came from... Russian friends. privately, almost noone knows about it

next time around, they might not get that lucky. DB is the V2 weapon of financial destruction

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Anonymous
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July 30, 2015 at 9:48 AM ×

almost noone - nothing escapes our mighty Nico

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Leftback
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July 30, 2015 at 12:51 PM ×

Anon @10.10. True. The process has begun, but 3-month and 6-month T-bills still have a considerable adjustment to make to accommodate a high probability of a move to 25-35bps in FFR. Most of the pain is probably in at the long end, but not all.

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Anonymous
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July 30, 2015 at 3:20 PM ×

Sad to have to see some very mature, smart people have to endlessly debate a minuscule quarter point rate hike. It's as if the financial world is teetering on the brink and about to come crashing down.

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Mr. T
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July 30, 2015 at 6:06 PM ×

Realistically we are looking at zirp/near-zirp for another year at least. I think reits and utilities are a gift on this YTD dip.

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FunnyMoney
admin
July 30, 2015 at 6:28 PM ×

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-30/deja-deja-deja-vu-all-over-again

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abee crombie
admin
July 30, 2015 at 8:01 PM ×

Rates are gonna stay low for a while I think is the common view of most on the street. I agree, and also am closing in on Utilities/REIT/MLP but remember you are going against a retail tide...still a bit more pain IMO.

But with a stronger dollar, weaker EM economies and slowing china reserve build-up the secular forces for higher rates are starting to come into play. GMO has a nice paper about "forced buyers" mostly relating to fixed income markets. So yes equities have gone straight up, yes interest rates are unlikely to spike anytime soon but for the longer term investor (10+ years, ie your retirement, kids college ) fixed income is still the bubble IMO. That saying, CAD to hit 1.40 when oil drop below $40 later this year ?

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Nico G
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July 30, 2015 at 8:02 PM ×

FM if we want to read this shitty website (ZH) we can just click there thank you

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Anonymous
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July 30, 2015 at 9:55 PM ×

Ah ZH is a bit of fun Nico. Any resources you like to suggest. I get pretty much everything from tweetdeck these days.

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hipper
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July 30, 2015 at 10:30 PM ×

So September seems to come down to a couple of decent/Good NFP numbers between now and then, or so they say. I agree rates staying very low because the $18 trillion debt balloon and probably a slew of other reasons too. Won't fly very far before the next chaos perhaps originating from EM world, ultimately finding its way through Europe etc. trade partners to slow down US escape velocity allowing gravity to gain the upper hand again.

Look at Venezuela, where Pepsi and Nestle are already contributing to dealing with the food crisis, Brazil plummeting, Middle-East plunging deeper into chaos, Turkey seems to be getting dragged into the pit now and Europe mass immigration crisis getting some new life in it. The last three are probably more or less related to oil, which has a very real possibility staying low for quite a while. And China deciding to maintain a lower growth rate won't help at all as most EM growth could generally be derived from commodities.

Agree on REIT's too but would love to see those front end readjustment taking place first before getting in deeper. Big Commodity too maybe, but I'd wager more on the turning point for those coming later after the financial readjustments ala LB.

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FunnyMoney
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July 30, 2015 at 10:42 PM ×

@Nico - Click away then, never know you might learn something.

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Nico G
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July 31, 2015 at 9:16 AM ×

i am not wasting precious bandwidth on my boat to read retarded BTFD manifesto - you are lucky to run tight stops FM - most of those simpletons will get smoke when things get awry, they just punt blindly regardless and one day you freeze and lose one year of scalping P&L in two sessions.

as fr posting sometimes you have good input here, but the promotion of BTFD is embarrassing in my view in light of the technicality of MM and some others. Honestly, be more selective. Do you mind telling us your age. Where you trading before 2009. Or before 2003.

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Anonymous
admin
July 31, 2015 at 2:36 PM ×

hipper@10:30

Seems like Nestle has been targeted in emerging markets..first in India, now Venezuela! While it's maggie brand of noodles was deemed safe to eat in Europe,U.K.,Canada, India banned the product!

Maybe the right person wasn't paid enough...

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abee crombie
admin
July 31, 2015 at 3:17 PM ×

hipper.. dont compare brazil to venny. Venny has only one true comp, that is Cuba (ok maybe N Korea). Brazil is a mess, for sure, but at least they are moving in the right direction with the bribery investigations. I am bearish on MSCI Asia Ex Japan. Nice false BO, IMO

Nico & FM.. BTFD will stop working one day, but today it is working. Yes leadership is narrowing but when GOOG reports blowout numbers and is trading at only 20x, it keeps the masses happy. Meanwhile we discuss Spoos or Stoxx contstantly with even a little SHCOMP thrown in for fun (who can really trade it in size?). But they best performing market is Nikkei, and retail there is all sellers still. Thats the one to watch IMO

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Anonymous
admin
July 31, 2015 at 4:02 PM ×

OMG! they just jailed some bankers

Tiarnan O'Mahoney sentenced to 3 years; Bernard Daly sentenced to 2 years ; Aoife Maguire sentenced to 18 months.

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Mr. T
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July 31, 2015 at 4:50 PM ×

BTFD is a great strategy in a bull market, but it's not something so clever that its helpful to be reminded of it twice a day. The data today was really something. .2 may be a bit of an outlier, but the trend is confirming what intuitively many people feel - wage growth is a concept as quaint as blue-collar prosperity. 10 year regression of ECI is decidedly negative. If you believe that wage growth drives inflation - which many people do, or at least that its really hard to have inflation without wage growth, the outlook is well off the feds target. Breakevens are rolling over. FFZ5's are starting to discount maybe nothing in 2015, with dec-2016's under 1%. Meanwhile, DXY is still up around 20%YTD. If the fed is really going to let the "data do the talking", DXY seems too high.

Also, in the US political scene (elections next year) there is increasing talk from the left of "what to do about the buybacks". Personal feelings aside, if corps feel that the zirp window is on limited time AND the tax efficiency of buybacks is too this could turn into a significant last mile push.

It's a perfect storm of long-us-equities data.

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abee crombie
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July 31, 2015 at 5:14 PM ×

On Chinese market manipulation and QE

"Therein lies the great irony of manipulation: The more we depend on markets, the less we trust them. Needless to say, that is a far cry from the “invisible hand” on which the efficacy of markets rests. We claim, as Adam Smith did, that impersonal markets ensure the most efficient allocation of scarce capital; but what we really want are markets that operate only on our terms."

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-stock-market-bubble-intervention-by-stephen-s--roach-2015-07#mi5iLF82bDZAOqtG.99

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CV
admin
July 31, 2015 at 6:48 PM ×

Hmm that LCI just ruined everything didn't? At least, inflation is edging up in the Eurozone, so maybe it is time to sell some Dec 18 and Dec 19 Euribor futures ;) ... he he he

Anyway, agree with the comments on the U.S. front end. Either the market calls Yellen's bluff (and gets away with it) or she takes the short-end yield chasers to the cleaners. We will need to get an answer to that question very soon. I think the FTSE is going to 6000 before this is over (is that, prey tell, an H&S I am spying on that one!?), and that you can probably buy back/leave the hammock some time in October. I am still not doing anything ... oh well, I did bleed some chips on PG earnings. Wasn't that thing supposed to be a safe moat and all ;).

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washedup
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July 31, 2015 at 8:47 PM ×

The LCI was most certainly quite the surprise to this punter - didn't really tie out with other observations we are getting, but who cares about that.

Therefore, T, yes the bull case for the dollar increasingly rests on being the tallest midget, which will only take you so far - that said, China, for one, may end up burrowing rather deeper into the mud than I thought at the beginning of this year, so others are doing their part.

I also agree on the buyback frenzy having the potential to ignite a melt-up in equities- but how do we explain that $1 TN of buybacks so far this year have only managed to inflate us around 2-3% YTD? So what do we need to create the meltup are we looking to do, um, $3 TN? or 4? or 5? And wouldn't you argue that given punter's risk capital availability and such, it is more likely to be a Q4 Santa Claus sponsored event as opposed to right here right now? Plus, spoos haven't exactly been a negative gamma benchmark shifting machine that forces funds in - the window where buying begets buying is closing fast.

To me the buyback theory holds only if risk appetite (as explained by things outside the equity markets, such as credit spreads) is healthy - otherwise its just a kamikaze orgy of corporate cash.Ultimately every buyer (cough FunnyMoney) just holds something sold by someone else (cough Nico).

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Anonymous
admin
July 31, 2015 at 10:49 PM ×

Regarding buyback, isn't it true that only a few companies (apple, google) hold majority of cash so they are the only ones that do not need to borrow money for buyback program. So after the buyback frenzy stops, most companies would just have a load of debts left. And it could be setup for a crash, triggered by any law changes on tax treatment of buyback.

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abee crombie
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August 1, 2015 at 1:03 AM ×

@johnL thanks for the Raoul Paul piece. Is he credible ? Certainly makes me think twice about my long Dax.

I'm thinking about shorting tsx index. Technically a double top and now breaking down. But banks paying juicy dividends will need to break.

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Leftback
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August 1, 2015 at 12:43 PM ×

Sentiment measures like AA II bulls are actually quite bearish at the moment. That is often a sign that there is another little run up in the market ahead of us. Not sharing punters enthusiasm for Treasuries here, especially as the ongoing employment data doesn't really indicate we are going to see weak numbers next week. With August only just beginning, we are definitely still in Silly Season for the time being, so wouldn't be shocked to see equities go Happy Clappy for a week or two.

An unexpectedly hot number next Wednesday/Friday might trigger another dump of bonds, REITs etc. So shorting the Long Bond this week? Media derision of commodities is increasing and sentiment in gold/silver and the miners is approaching rock bottom, so that is starting to be another area of interest. OK, that's it from the safety of the Hammock.

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Nico G
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August 2, 2015 at 6:00 PM ×

yo ho washedup for once I've been a big BUYER last week.

Dec VIX

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Anonymous
admin
August 2, 2015 at 9:54 PM ×

"Ex-Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis is being accused of treason - and his critics want to see him stand trial for causing "incalculable damage to the interests of the country."

Now 3 separate charges against him. Absolutely made my day. Hopefully he pleads guilty by reason of insanity. Better yet, he goes to trial.

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hipper
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August 2, 2015 at 11:45 PM ×

Wonder if there's been any impact from possible increasing part time jobs vs. full time jobs growth on the ECI. Or in general increasing part time jobs in relation to the total existing job market size, which might have limited growth, as hours worked, one would expect to wildly swing around based on demand. Headline doesn't care about job quality either and it's probably much easier for the economy to create part time jobs. Interesting notion also that Q2 was a definite victory for the government workers @ 0.6%. If there was any effect from this, by itself it isn't any reason to expect the NFP's getting worse, which seems to be the key for Sep.

Good read @ JohnL 3:12, thanks. Interesting notion about EZ just lagging the US cycle. It kind of reinforces my vision of EZ being unable to support sustainably domestic (majority) based growth. Abnormally high Italian PMI and Spanish GDP supported by mortgage growth sounds amazing but as noted the LEI's in both countries already turned down again. Not ruling out that there wouldn't be a month or two lagging EZ growth expectations but the big global picture is important (long term China/residual EM side effects).

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Jim
admin
August 3, 2015 at 1:21 AM ×

This does not look good...World trade shock and synchronized manufacturing slowdown…?

http://blog.moneymanagedproperly.com/?p=4534

Back in 2014, lng landed Japan was $16-19. Look at it now...

http://imgur.com/bRlw9tg

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Anonymous
admin
August 3, 2015 at 2:33 AM ×


https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-wont-down-us-stocks-162924391.html

"I think we're missing a big picture on China by focusing on the old metrics," said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab. "The areas of growth in China that we want to focus on are doing OK. The new success stories in China like Alibaba center on the country's burgeoning middle class rather than the strength in exports that contributed to exponential growth in the last two decades. The latest breakdown of Chinese GDP (from 2013) shows the service sector is now larger than the manufacturing sector."

"... the bear market in commodities and the 15-month low in China's PMI indicates more of a slowdown in manufacturing than a decline in national growth."

"The growth model that has served China over the 2000s is no longer that valuable," said Ben Mandel, global strategist at JPMorgan Multi-Asset Solutions.

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Anonymous
admin
August 3, 2015 at 2:54 AM ×

2015 Market Correction Prediction: We will experience a 15-30% correction during the month of September

#timestamp JJG

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Nico G
admin
August 3, 2015 at 3:14 AM ×

hey Phoney Money thanks to your advice i went to click on that website of yours, zero hedge. cool site i don't know if this dude has been bearish for ever but this was a very transparent, didactical, enjoyable read

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-02/tide-has-turned-and-these-charts-predict-next-stop

market has done what it does best to press most in one side of the room where that big pina colada bowl is. End of 2008, spring 2009 you could not find one guy who wanted US equities. It was all about buying farmland and guns. 7 years later today you still cannot find one guy with enough sanity to short US equities. It is all about Fed having your back. You dig the pattern?

in summer 2007 i was so bearish i got kicked out of a (paying) forum with good minds like here. In 2008 the owner apologized and let me back him. He was gutted, his American dream was over and a few months later he died of a heart attack on one very bad trade that i was stupid enough to follow (different asset class out of comfort zone) and cost a few millions

here i have been mocked by some for the same relentless cautious messages but hey, i must be caring about your money and well being too much. Good and safe trading everyone and if you have been used to scalp long pretty much blindfolded it might be time to revise your risk management and strategy

grandpa NIco

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Anonymous
admin
August 3, 2015 at 5:55 AM ×

Nico is a fade

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Anonymous
admin
August 3, 2015 at 12:50 PM ×

So this is what you call a MARKET?

BBG: "After China’s stocks crashed in June, the government put more than $400 billion at the disposal of a little-known state agency, the China Securities Finance Corp., headed by an academic and bureaucrat named Nie Qingping. It was told to save the market."

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Nico G
admin
August 3, 2015 at 12:54 PM ×

anon 555 absolutely please load up on 2100 spoos in the middle of the summer. puh lease at this late stage the market needs dumb little cunts like you

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washedup
admin
August 3, 2015 at 1:43 PM ×

Nico - y i like vix too problem is the contango in the vol curve makes you miss out on some gains - dec straddles won't work because ur structure turns into calls in the very event thats supposed to pay you and the call skew eats away gains - ideally id buy variance swaps for dec but can't play that in retailville.
I feel you tho - good luck to anyone who thinks s&p will realize less than 12% annualized vol in the next 5 months!

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abee crombie
admin
August 3, 2015 at 4:09 PM ×

Nico, does this really feel like 2007? Yes maybe if you are an equity fund manager (wall st)but from the average joe schmoe, the real economy i dont see the similarities unless you are in silicon valley. You have lots of ppl saying this expansion could go on much longer bc we are no where near full utilization in any economy (ie global deflation in commodity prices)

is wall street pricing assets high, for sure, and deal activity is high as well. I am just not sure I buy that the sentiment is only 1 way. Lots of ppl still negative, IMO

Seems to me that WTI is gonna break 40..too much supply

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Leftback
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August 3, 2015 at 5:46 PM ×

Not a bit like 2007, really. No obvious signs of credit distress out there, which isn't surprising at what might prove to be the very beginning of a tightening cycle. By 2007, late into a prolonged period of Fed tightening, it was already screamingly obvious that a lot of things were quite obviously just not right in a variety of credit sectors.

Yes, crude is still weighed down by excess supply. This is another dip we are not going to mess with until we see the DX clearly peak, and see some structural changes in the oil markets. The last move down didn't trigger any serious cutbacks in supply, but this current move might force some small domestic producers to shut up shop, or convince OPEC to reduce production. When some of the US pumpers finally decide they can't afford to keep operating and they stop pumping, we might indeed see a little outbreak of credit distress, but this is still going to be "contained" b/c of the prevailing excessively low rates.

This week's jobs number/s probably represent the make or break data point for the September rate hike. A soft number here and Mr Market may take this completely off the table, although we think that's unlikely. We are still cautious on fixed income for the time being, employment data has been surprisingly solid in view of some of the rest of the real economy data.

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Leftback
admin
August 3, 2015 at 5:59 PM ×

Fading this move in the Long Bond is probably a decent trade idea for the week for Hammock Capital. TLT is looking at resistance levels here and the 200 day is overhead. Not clear whether this recent move down in yields from 3.25% to 2.85% in 30y has been a Dead Cat bounce or the beginning of a more constructive advance for US Treasuries. The fall in US inflation data certainly would tend to support the latter case for the time being, but let's see what the employment data suggest.

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washedup
admin
August 3, 2015 at 6:35 PM ×

Of course its not like 2007 - 2007 was all about an ever weakening dollar and highly different rates of growth in US vs Asia, hence the dubious concept of 'decoupling' peddled by rather self interested wall street banks that led to the beginning of grotesque re-adjustments in attitudes towards risky assets, with commodities and emerging markets playing superstar safe havens with everything else being shunned as oh so yesterday, right before selective dislike turned into universal disdain.
WAIT A SECOND.........

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abee crombie
admin
August 3, 2015 at 7:15 PM ×

hhahaha nice one washedup, but you are still missing the one critical piece. Utilization/inflation. We were over heating in 2007. Not the same now. Now we have deflation bc of too much capacity (and money) coupled with higher asset prices.

Spoo's not looking hot either way from technicals, lots of hf stocks getting chewed up. Check out SUNE

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August 8, 2015 at 9:14 AM × This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
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