Can anything sink EUR/AUD?

Who knew all this Grexit stuff was so good for the euro?   That, at least, is the message conveyed by EUR/AUD, which has rallied very steadily over the last three months.



Macro Man's question for you, dear readers, is what it would take for EUR/AUD to turn tail and decline:

a) The polarity of the Earth's magnetic field reverses, causing massive upheaval and everything (including this chart) to turn upside down

b) Greece withdraws permission for the Eurozone to use Euclidian geometry, forcing physical mayhem upon the terrain and infrastructure of Europe as all geography and buildings twist themselves into a sort of Cubist nightmare

c) Men at Work, disgusted by their home nation's vulnerability to collapsing commodities, decide to re-form to kickstart a self-motivational campaign by re-recording one of their biggest hits as "Land Up Over"

d) The Chinese authorities' myriad attempts to prop up the collapsing stock market work, leading to a tasty oversold bounce in the Shanghai Comp, copper, iron ore, etc.

Actually, forget that last option.   It's just too unrealistic....
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Anonymous
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July 8, 2015 at 2:56 PM ×

DROPPED TO THEIR DAILY LIMIT

BBG:Around 2:30 p.m. in Beijing, when the prices of almost all raw materials dropped to their daily limit, the trading floor at Beijing Ruigu Investment Co. went so quiet not even the sound of typing on a keyboard broke the silence, according to Wang Zhe, a trader at the commodity fund.
“Everyone staring at their screens was dumbfounded,” he said.

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washedup
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July 8, 2015 at 3:33 PM ×

"b) Greece withdraws permission for the Eurozone to use Euclidian geometry, "

On it - did you note the name of their new finance minister?
Must be quite an experience growing up in Greece - for those of who struggled with ancient theorems when we were kids, its interesting to imagine comments like 'that ptolemy stole my lunch', or 'my cousin aristotle can be quite a d@3k', and my favorite, 'are you sure pythagoras look at this from all the right angles????'

EUR/AUD has been a function of AUD weakness and EUR deer-in-the-head-lighted-ness - not sure what to make of it here.

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Anonymous
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July 8, 2015 at 4:52 PM ×

Greece halted

China halted

NYSE halted

United halted

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CV
admin
July 8, 2015 at 5:20 PM ×

Tinfoil hats on everyone! The millionth monkey will have a field day on this ... how cute!

Meanwhile, in the hammock ... nothing much going on! ;)

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Leftback
admin
July 8, 2015 at 5:48 PM ×

Hammock Time never looked so good...

A long time ago, a wise man told me the secret to this business is not capturing a bunch of tiny up days, it's having the sixth sense to avoid the big down days. Our risk guy is still having a snooze while most of his peers are calling for a change of pants.

Conspiracy and Permabear sites are going to get a lot of traffic today.

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Leftback
admin
July 8, 2015 at 5:53 PM ×

Yesterday I was going to say that things won't get nasty until we see someone seriously buying JPY. Today we are seeing some serious yen buying for the first time. Welcome to another edition of "Disorderly Carry Unwind"? Always a fun (shit)show.

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Anonymous
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July 8, 2015 at 5:56 PM ×

How about resumed demand for Austrailian natural resources?

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Nemo
admin
July 8, 2015 at 6:11 PM ×

Does it require a tinfoil hat to ask "what are the odds of United Airlines and the NYSE randomly going off-line at the same time?"

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Leftback
admin
July 8, 2015 at 6:47 PM ×

"Turn Those Machines Back ON...."

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Anonymous
admin
July 8, 2015 at 6:51 PM ×

https://twitter.com/YourAnonNews/status/618626955433349120

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Anonymous
admin
July 8, 2015 at 7:55 PM ×

Flash crash? Blame it on Nav Sarao!

Whatever happened to him?

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Anonymous
admin
July 8, 2015 at 8:28 PM ×

For some reason Nav Sarao reminds me of that Patton quote in the movie:

"You win a war by letting some other poor dumb son of a bitch die for *his* country!"

- Whammer

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Anonymous
admin
July 8, 2015 at 9:02 PM ×

Nikkei 225 Yen (CME) Sep 2015 down 1135

Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index ($NKVI) is up 29.67% today.

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Anonymous
admin
July 9, 2015 at 1:46 AM ×

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-08/fed-looks-set-to-postpone-rate-increase-amid-greece-turmoil

"The Federal Reserve will delay raising U.S. interest rates until next year, a Morgan Stanley index shows.

Greece’s struggle to stay in the euro currency union along with plunging prices for Chinese stocks and commodities globally are all threatening to slow global economic growth. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday reiterated its view that the Fed should wait until the first half of 2016 to act. The mix is driving a rally in Treasuries.

The U.S. central bank won’t increase borrowing costs until the first quarter of 2016, according to the Morgan Stanley index, which is based on an analysis of futures trading. As recently as last month, the gauge projected a shift by year-end. The Fed is scheduled to issue the minutes of its June 16-17 meeting at 2 p.m. Wednesday in Washington."

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Leftback
admin
July 9, 2015 at 2:33 AM ×

Perhaps the above is true, but considering everything that is happening the move in USTs has been weak. People are using the recent rallies to sell into strength. Until the market dynamics change, it's still hard to be constructive on US fixed income. One more large down move and capitulation selling ahead? We'll know it when we see it.

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river
admin
July 9, 2015 at 3:13 AM ×

http://evilspeculator.com/why_bear_lose_in_bear_markets/#disqus_thread

@FatF1nger

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Anonymous
admin
July 9, 2015 at 3:18 AM ×

The comments section at evilspec is one of the best..

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charles
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July 9, 2015 at 8:04 AM ×

@ washed up : Why not "Ptolemy is so self-centered"...

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