tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post7297381803585484416..comments2024-03-28T12:22:11.704+00:00Comments on Macro Man: Post-payroll bulletsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger56125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42596449440708750212015-07-07T14:58:13.160+01:002015-07-07T14:58:13.160+01:00All is well...
Iron Ore from $62+ to $49.60 in 7 ...All is well...<br /><br />Iron Ore from $62+ to $49.60 in 7 trading days <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37812310564020877932015-07-07T14:43:55.816+01:002015-07-07T14:43:55.816+01:00Varoufakis does China...
1/4 of all companies lis...Varoufakis does China...<br /><br />1/4 of all companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen (>700) have filed requests to halt their shares from tradingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81721251551566161262015-07-07T14:18:06.007+01:002015-07-07T14:18:06.007+01:00Maybe its the contrarian in me, or the fact that I...Maybe its the contrarian in me, or the fact that I hear too many ppl wanting to BTFD (outside of this board), but I think we are in for real trouble here. I bought some Yen as insurance, a lot cheaper than paying away roll cost on VIX... <br /><br />I am waiting for the shoe to drop in oil as well. Unlike coal which is going to be marginalized as a use of energy, I think oil is still going to be here for a while, though Tesla and the likes are doing a great job of making me reconsider. But when that shoe does drop I think some US MLP's will be a great buy. US Nat gas isnt going away, that is for sure<br /><br />A nice unwind of some M&A arb in chinese listed ADRs is underway as well. If that spills over into the rest of the hedge fund M&A land, watch out. <br /><br />I'm not trying to be like Janjuah and pounding the table, but I do see the same warning signs. My suggestion is start making your shopping list if we do get a big decline and have enough cash. Otherwise I am sitting tight for now but if I had more time I'd be doing what FM is...swing trade this market.<br /><br />abeeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-81522097299360431172015-07-07T13:11:02.690+01:002015-07-07T13:11:02.690+01:00LB: Also waiting for the EURUSD to trade lower. An...LB: Also waiting for the EURUSD to trade lower. And, an eventual relief rally. This whole Greece focus is getting old<br />Gnome: The other EU ministers seem pretty firm as well. Well, in the end the Djermans get the last word I guess. <br />Winginitnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9333139446682651442015-07-07T12:32:41.135+01:002015-07-07T12:32:41.135+01:00I am having the strong impression that today is th...I am having the strong impression that today is the official Grexit day. Reading the German press, there's not the slightest chance of a last minute deal. Gnome of Zurichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33289142851559843982015-07-07T12:28:27.356+01:002015-07-07T12:28:27.356+01:00Mr. T, look at the coal stocks to see the endgame ...Mr. T, look at the coal stocks to see the endgame for most energy E&P companies. Many will become almost worthless equity stubs under a mountain of debt. <br /><br />I still don't get peoples fixations with producers dividend yield when all of it was payed out of new debt even at $100 oil as there never was any free cash flow. All the majors will have to cut their dividends sooner or later. Shell's acquisition of BG will become one of the dumbest mergers of all time...Gnome of Zurichnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-78209250596384314842015-07-07T12:25:15.934+01:002015-07-07T12:25:15.934+01:00LB just thinks that punters will sell EURUSD until...LB just thinks that punters will sell EURUSD until the cows come home here, or until the EU stops sitting on its arse with its digits rectally inserted and comes up with a few measly $B for another roll of Greek duct tape to get us all through the July and August payment schedule which are the most meaningful issues immediately ahead of us. This is becoming quite asinine.<br /><br />As someone pointed out yesterday, there are plenty of people happy to see EURUSD trade down to 1.05 or below. It's going to be a tremendous relief rally in Stoxx once people come to their senses. German interests will benefit, of course....Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-89980329569608922942015-07-07T12:16:41.301+01:002015-07-07T12:16:41.301+01:00Anyone else has a bad feeling about this new get t...Anyone else has a bad feeling about this new get together of Greece and EU. I have misjudged this more than once lately so im gonna stay put. But I am itching to sell some euro stocks right now. <br /><br />Paper trade it is then...Winginitnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-7181465816121463622015-07-07T12:04:07.728+01:002015-07-07T12:04:07.728+01:00Here comes that dollar surge we talked about. US m...Here comes that dollar surge we talked about. US markets still Teflon, while no amount of Kevlar would tempt me into China.<br /><br />Let's forget Greece and talk China, which is taking centre stage. As we all remember from 2008, shorting bans and calls for "selling bans" never seem to have the right effect on investor confidence. At some point the China crash was always going to spur safe haven buying by Asian investors and we might be getting to that point. Imagine how much bigger the boom/bust there would have been if MSCI had made the wrong decision and a raft of global managers had been forced to buy in a few weeks back. What a house of cards. Now we are seeing all the usual repercussions of an EM market implosion. The China bust has made emerging market ETFs temporarily uninvestable (since a major component of EEM and VWO is now broken), and the ensuing dollar surge is really doing a number on the entire energy and commodity complex yet again. This is going to create some more wonderful opportunities in EM and energy at some point, but we have all seen these selling frenzies last for ages.<br /><br />To close the circle, it's not impossible that the chaos unleashed by China's bubble bursting will provide the impetus for the EU to fudge another deal with Greece to create the illusion of stability. Where all this leaves Dame Janet is an open question.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-88109435152824766172015-07-07T08:32:38.711+01:002015-07-07T08:32:38.711+01:00Never underestimate the EUs ability to anaesthetis...Never underestimate the EUs ability to anaesthetise a problem away through length of process and complexity of solution. Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-75321543028109315072015-07-07T08:30:15.039+01:002015-07-07T08:30:15.039+01:00Can't complain about a lack of newsflow. Chin...Can't complain about a lack of newsflow. China is going from bad to ugly. Seems unlikely that this will not have an impact on the 'real' economy. With almost 30% of the market cap of the country now officially halted (by company request) the declines may slow, but this is the definition of "uninvestable" for the rest of the world. MSCI really dodged a bullet for themselves and a huge chunk of investors by waiting for inclusion.<br /><br />The European drama continues, as always. Maybe I'm fatigued from the constant crisis, but its becoming more of the <i>European normal</i> than a discrete set of events. At this point I don't think it really matters much anyways, at least not compared to the shitshow in china.<br /><br />US markets continue to show strength relative to the rest of the DM world. When you drill down just a little bit and see the bifurcation of returns inside indexes its remarkable that they continue to grind higher. The E&P sector has been killed, and it looks like its not over yet. Non-oil energy names in gas, coal, solar are trading like death. Look at CHK as an example - this is a really big name and success of these companies is critical to the gas pivot. Much of the energy space appears to be in slow balance sheet trainwreck mode. It's not an insignificant amount of debt, and in quite a few of the markets even post restructuring its not clear they will be generating positive cashflow. Chevron yielding north of 4.5% now, and no takers.<br /><br />On rates and the fed, I have to wonder if there is some head scratching going on with the <i>worst-case outcome</i> for Greece, and the giant yawn from markets as the robots continue playing pingpong. Is anyone at the Fed saying "this is what we waited for? This is the global instability that causing us to be behind the curve?" Another game of guess-the-policy-response that I'm losing patience with.<br /><br />I'm doing my part and trying to play the game but its been choppy. I see opportunity in a mispricing between a dollar of chevrons earnings vs a dollar of facebooks (or any of the 'haves') earnings, but the trade simply does not work. Winner take all economy seems to be charging forward with very little opposition from the traditional corners.Mr. Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-73555871628636005432015-07-06T22:03:20.690+01:002015-07-06T22:03:20.690+01:00What a crazy shafting for EM and commodities. Viet...What a crazy shafting for EM and commodities. Vietnam has been pretty much the only bright spot I think. Total paralysis in Europe, the FOMC vortex and China all beginning to really add up here. One might also think that the crazy Shanghai casino collapse might have quite a bit negative influence on Chinese consumer confidence and thus put a very visible dent in the plans of getting rid of the relience on exports through increasing "internal consumption", if the reports are true of how many common folks just started getting in.<br /><br />Re oil markets, off shore drillers are looking to be in pretty deep doodoo here. Not sure it's a case of even Darwinism and the survival of the fittest anymore, but rather is it evolving to an extinction-of-the-dinosaurs type of event. Some kind of lag was to be expected being long term contracts but only a short term price recovery blip isn't enough to straighten the dent done to exploration CAPEX. But I'm sure one day there will again be a time for big integrated oil/mining again.<br /><br />Mind you I have minimal faith on FOMC delivering and I'd like to imagine that the market patience is beginning to thin out as well in this regard, as is the Fed opportunity window to act.hipperhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10934536233703452719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63127463872204870232015-07-06T21:20:17.382+01:002015-07-06T21:20:17.382+01:00Podemos are watching all this. Watching and learni...Podemos are watching all this. Watching and learning..... am old enough to remember a time when Spain, Portugal and Greece were all basically under fascists. We can debate the differences between EU "technocrats" and fascists some time. Germany defaulted on its debt once, let me see who was that? Oh yes, it was 1933. How peculiar are the memories of Germans...<br /><br /><br /><br />Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-42122280519097666552015-07-06T20:07:40.662+01:002015-07-06T20:07:40.662+01:00I know that it is late for the Greek event. But he...I know that it is late for the Greek event. But hey, since Greek is f**k either way for now, it might just well get rid of EUR. This way at least they have their own CB and not to be bullied by the ECB who really does not give a sh*t about Greece. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45400403772540060802015-07-06T19:22:13.149+01:002015-07-06T19:22:13.149+01:00The ECB just tightened the screws on Greece:
http:...The ECB just tightened the screws on Greece:<br />http://www.businessinsider.com/ecb-maintains-emergency-assistance-to-greece-2015-7<br /><br />Watch the Nazi EU destroy the Greek people for daring to hold a democratic election.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29340860088295666952015-07-06T18:51:52.311+01:002015-07-06T18:51:52.311+01:00love how janjuah comes tumbling out of the cupboar...love how janjuah comes tumbling out of the cupboard rubbing his eyes every time the market looks like it may go down only to crawl back in during the next short squeeze/rally/central bank intervention. I don't know whether to feel bad for him or marvel at the fact anyone still listens to him. <br />over the course of Q3 and Q4 eh? way to stick your neck out on specificity Bob.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-49372233922659356202015-07-06T18:45:40.278+01:002015-07-06T18:45:40.278+01:00Bob Jamjar has called 37 of the last 5 corrections...Bob Jamjar has called 37 of the last 5 corrections. You know what, though, he might be right this time?Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-39968189098513010342015-07-06T18:45:23.113+01:002015-07-06T18:45:23.113+01:00"China Bans Selling Of Stocks By Pension Fund..."China Bans Selling Of Stocks By Pension Funds" - Hahaha f*ckwits. Looks like they took advice from the Fed. Hope this markets crashes 10,000 pts and wipes them all out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-27871993895178579762015-07-06T18:16:25.497+01:002015-07-06T18:16:25.497+01:00Nomura’s Janjuah sees “significant short, sharp bu...Nomura’s Janjuah sees “significant short, sharp but large” (15%-20%) correction over course of Q3 and going into Q4Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-83611592079975891792015-07-06T18:07:51.058+01:002015-07-06T18:07:51.058+01:00The Germans...
Have played this perfectly. Greece...The Germans...<br /><br />Have played this perfectly. Greece has been completely marginalized. Note to the rest of the PIIGS, mess with our Europe and you will be effectively shut down, no banking system, no food and no medicine. <br /><br />As far as I can see there are no consequences to the "referendum" except for Greeks who I feel sorry for. Intervention in the markets have worked and preserved orderly markets to boot. For the moment there is nothing to see here.<br /><br />Greece was outclassed.<br /><br />And the whole situation p*sses me off to no end but it is what it is. There should be consequences for actions but I guess just not yet. I can relate to the previous posters comment about people lining up for a shaving accident 5 streets over. Ultimately German exporters will be happy with eur/usd around 1.05 but for the right reasons and not a crisis of confidence. So be it. I'm going to the garden now for a beer and doing my breathing exercises.<br /><br />PH<br /><br />PS: Looking for cheap property in Greece.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-53197048836437370332015-07-06T17:51:03.681+01:002015-07-06T17:51:03.681+01:00left - agree with the short oil idea in fact thats...left - agree with the short oil idea in fact thats been underway for the last few days - not so sure about bucky though - feels like every rally in it gets sold, and there seems to be a lot of justified pessimism about the ability of the us economy to exhibit strong growth in Q3 - 2% ain't gonna cut it for the dollar to make new highs. The tallest midget argument can only get you so far I think. <br />Like you said the other day - opportunities are coming - just don't know what they are yet. Reminds me of the readers digest mailers from the 80's.<br />And Pol - very cogent blog post today - if i could take writing lessons from you I would.washedupnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33666078181302066812015-07-06T16:00:07.343+01:002015-07-06T16:00:07.343+01:00Getting away from the obvious topic, LB suggests t...Getting away from the obvious topic, LB suggests that the trades of Q3 might be similar to last year. Any ECB-assisted fudge, combined with ongoing QE, will likely weaken the Euro. So after an initial knee jerk and squeeze, EURUSD probably drifts lower, eventually becoming caught in a rip tide and sucked into the September FOMC vortex, with the 1,00-1,05 range potentially in play. Perhaps MM has a view on this.<br /><br />USD higher seems like a no-brainer and with the dollar, supply and seasonal factors all in play together, another lurch lower in the oil price seems like a good bet. One more bout of curve steepening is also likely to go along with this if we assume a Grextension deal of the type being touted by Galbraith, Krugman and others (and in this case, they're not wrong!). If China really does experience a crash or hard stop of some kind, then oil will plummet and all rates bets are off.<br /><br />All of that having been said, we will try hard to avoid all of our favorite EM, energy, REIT and PM vehicles until such time as the next rates/Bucky surge is complete, and the outlook in China is clearer. If and when the rate hike does materialize, the Q4 trade will probably be Sell The News in USD. As always, patience is going to be rewarded in 2015. It's been a very long hammock session..... (but we weren't wrong!). Some years you have to make a few % early on and then sit and look at it.Leftbacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-72488946032310573312015-07-06T15:44:02.275+01:002015-07-06T15:44:02.275+01:00"Soon after the announcement of the referendu..."Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my ‘absence’ from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance today."<br /><br />http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-47759355631045997722015-07-06T15:20:26.907+01:002015-07-06T15:20:26.907+01:00Shown the door? More like shown a close up of the ...Shown the door? More like shown a close up of the front wheels of a bus.Polemichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05985506596290073453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-68194507676021224492015-07-06T15:14:33.626+01:002015-07-06T15:14:33.626+01:00LB: "Varoufakis has resigned"
He was sh...LB: "Varoufakis has resigned"<br /><br />He was shown the door.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com