Snap back to reality

Are markets starting to come to grips with the end of QE and the concomitant focus on rate lift-off?  Or is this simply the seasonal risk-asset weakness in September-October that used to be par for the course before central banks decided to control asset prices by virtual administrative diktat?  Or even one of those occasions where markets decide to react to geopolitical developments, be it the war against IS or the protests in Hong Kong?

For sure, the bread-and-butter fixed income markets have not sold off nearly as much recently as they did during the taper tantrum last year.  Then again, there's been quite some time to adjust to the idea of an eventual tightening, and in any event markets know that that it will be the arch-dove Yellen, as opposed to unknown quantity Larry Summers, who'll be driving the bus on policy change.

That having been said, the more speculative brand of fixed income has snapped back to reality.  As noted recently in the comments, HYG has come under the cosh quite a bit recently.  To those of us who have have occasionally bemoaned how easy it was for buy'n'hold carry monkeys to generate outsized returns, recent weakness is a welcome dose of reality.  Of course, some of this weakness may well be down to quarter-end considerations, and the inability/unwillingness of any financial intermediary to warehouse this stuff because of the onerous capital charges they incur.  Perhaps we'll know more come Wednesday and the new quarter.



At the time of writing, equities are also looking poorly, though bouncing a bit from the opening gap.  As noted recently, the negative divergence from the highs was something of an ominous sign, and stocks have duly kept rolling over.  At this point a test of previous lows just north of 1900 in the SPX would appear likely; it could well prove to be one of those weeks where a 'good' payroll number is bad for stocks.




And then there's the USD, most specifically USD/JPY.   Here we are at the highs, with rates not really going anywhere over the last few days, risk assets looking wobbly, momentum starting to ebb, and even the Japanese themselves appearing to call time on the current bout of yen weakness.  It seems to be taken as something as a given that USD/JPY powers higher in the last trimester of the year; after all, it worked a treat in 2012 and 2013.  However, given everything else that's going on, Macro Man cannot help but wonder if USD/JPY is a little on borrowed time up here- if only temporarily.




USD/JPY is one of those pairs that tends to defy gravity...until it doesn't.   While Macro Man will concede that he doesn't have as good a handle on positioning as he would if he were back at his old gig, the chart above (and the results of his poll) would suggest that the market's long.   While it's always tough to go short contrary to one's underlying bullish view, there's nothing wrong with repairing to the sidelines when the risk/reward temporarily dips below an acceptable threshold.  From Macro Man's perch, that would appear to be the case at the moment, particularly when you add in the randomizer of a payroll number on Friday.


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Leftback
admin
September 29, 2014 at 5:36 PM ×

How about this scenario? USD longs push on today and tomorrow to USDJPY 110 and DX 86 in anticipation of a strong payroll number this week, but equities are weak on profit taking and nervousness about strong USD impact on the big exporters. Wednesday we will welcome the influx of Q4 fund flows, and we get a relief rally in the Spoos "on private employment data (ADP)".

Then Friday we return to reality, especially those hot air balloonists currently riding the BoJ thermal. Another sub-200k number would be enough to puncture the front wheel of a few more cyclists seeking US escape velocity.

The bond market is clearly not singing from the strong dollar hymn book today, so The Impossible Trinity does seem to have come unstuck at last.

The Impossible Trinity

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Leftback
admin
September 29, 2014 at 6:08 PM ×

Falling knife watch: Australian banks, thanks for pointing that out, Abee. Yield hogs take note. VALE, hammered again. Also Gazprom, again quite ridiculously cheap at P/B 0.34 and yielding nearly 6%. These are all quite tasty if you don't fancy US growth, Fed tightening or USD.

Limbo dancers: Tesco. Just how low can it go? At the worst, they cancel dividend payments for a year, sell some assets and begin a slow grind towards recovery. This is one of the few businesses where the bricks and mortar stores actually generate the revenue, so asset sales might impact future growth and profitability. Any insights on this out there?

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Leftback
admin
September 29, 2014 at 6:32 PM ×

More on the hot air balloonists. USD is officially in nose-bleed territory, especially against commodity dogs like RUB, CLP and BRL, some of which are trading weaker than during the depths of the 2008 GFC. Better watch out for those power lines.... I mean, swap lines.

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Anonymous
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September 29, 2014 at 7:06 PM ×

Steel rebar for Jan. delivery on Shanghai Futures -2.4% to 2,529 yuan/mt, lowest close for most-active contract since trade began in 2009.

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Anonymous
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September 29, 2014 at 7:07 PM ×

Now +190 on 2-10yr curve . Thats 15bps flatter in last 10 trading sessions and best indictor yet slow growth in USA getting priced in

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Anonymous
admin
September 29, 2014 at 7:22 PM ×

Hint, hint...
*EVANS SAYS FED WOULD RESTART QE IF ECONOMY HIT BIG DOWNTURN

The new normal...Americans decrease spending on food...
http://imgur.com/DSTsC2k

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Anonymous
admin
September 29, 2014 at 7:28 PM ×

Gee, how about some earnings adjustments?

http://imgur.com/oA5sMSP

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Anonymous
admin
September 29, 2014 at 7:31 PM ×

Right in your face market manipulation...

http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Equities/Bank-of-Japan-emerging-as-big-Japanese-stock-buyer

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Leftback
admin
September 29, 2014 at 8:10 PM ×

*EVANS SAYS FED WOULD RESTART QE IF ECONOMY HIT BIG DOWNTURN

Shhhh!!! We're waiting for rates to rise, because the US is approaching escape velocity. Didn't you read the script? Don't you read the papers?

Anon, instead of taking bets on the first Fed hike, we should open a book on the date of the next QE announcement. Personally I like next year's Jackson Hole conference for historical reasons, but who knows?

Before the QE actually begins, of course, there will be the Hilsenrath leak - something to the effect that "FOMC members are no longer averse to the renewed use of unusual measures, and additional extension of the Fed's balance sheet has not been ruled out. The majority of members now believe that it may in fact be a considerable time before the Fed funds rate can be raised".

By the time the QE is actually started, 10s will be down at 1.00%. Think it can't happen? Look at Germany. Sell dollars, buy the long bond, short anything with a Price/Book over 100. Rational valuation has a way of returning with a bang.

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Anonymous
admin
September 29, 2014 at 8:38 PM ×

Come on key day reversal in spx! 6 more points...

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Anonymous
admin
September 30, 2014 at 12:45 AM ×

Nothing is going down till jpy does (from 2 weeks to couple month).

It still has to re-sync to SPX from 2008 levels.

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Anonymous
admin
September 30, 2014 at 4:18 PM ×

Look at the early reverse repo. Interesting. Notice rates.

http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE

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Anonymous
admin
September 30, 2014 at 5:03 PM ×

Is this April 2007?

http://imgur.com/KsXrR2P

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Anonymous
admin
September 30, 2014 at 5:04 PM ×

Now 6 1/2% on Greek 10yr debt . I can't wait for talks of next haircut & bailout tranche begin . Italy & Spain 10yr sharp rallies

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abee crombie
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September 30, 2014 at 5:06 PM ×

The stealth rotation in this bull market is catching some corners hard, as MM and LB pointed out. I expect some HY to catch a bid here but really that market is pretty stretched but with improving fundi's (fingers crossed payrolls dont disappoint) there isnt much reason to sell off hard other than positioning (Pimco?)

EEM getting hit hard, along with EM FX. Brazil elections not helping Bovespa (Dilma now expected to return and possibly win w/o a run off) and HK protestors have to give some pause as well.

Large cap US stocks though seem to be hanging in there. Everyone is talking about the lack of breadth participation now, but R2K stock were way over valued last year, now they just pausing. 1100 is pretty key here. If we hold that level, along with HYG recent lows, i think we grind up into year end. if not, well short the lame ducks, EM, oil related stocks (offshore particularly getting killed) and commodities. OPEC seems caught off guard here

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Polemic
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September 30, 2014 at 5:14 PM ×

this perm equity bull is worried that too many small wave troughs are intersecting to cause a rogue trough. Listed them yesterday on my other site.

Like MM I m wondering if this is a typical Sept/Oct sell off set up.

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Corey
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September 30, 2014 at 5:18 PM ×

@ LB - RE: long bond - are you concerned at all with the ex-fed issuance being the highest in 5 yrs in 2015?

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Leftback
admin
September 30, 2014 at 6:21 PM ×

More small cap weakness today, stealth rotation is indeed in effect, materials, energy being dumped and note that this is the last day of Q3, so funds have been dumping a few of their losers for days, between the EoQ portfolio tinkering, Chinese data, precious metal weakness and the USD rally we have seen relentless selling of things like VALE, PBR, PAAS, and of course anything Russian.

At this point Gazprom, Lukoil and Rosneft are all very very cheap and trade well below book, coinciding with what may well prove to be this decade's low for the RUB. Everyone Hates Vladimir, but to see an oil-rich nation's currency trading so far below the currency that can be easily devalued by the Federal printing press beggars belief. Another resource-rich nation in Brazil is also on sale, thanks in part to the Dilma Discount. Politics can blind one to opportunity in this business.

Corey, the answer to your question re: the long bond in 2015 is: No, certainly not yet, and maybe not at all - unless the US really looks like escaping The Black Hole that is ZIRP, which will not be soon. Did you see Evans comments?

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Leftback
admin
September 30, 2014 at 6:33 PM ×

The world is chock full of commentary like this, at the moment, regarding the threat of the Russian Bear, as though Putin was about to announce Anschluß and then annex the Sudetenland:

Baltics Next on the Agenda?

Another way to look at Russia's situation is to acknowledge that the US helped to nobble a useless yet democratically elected government in Kiev and installed a puppet regime by coup d'état. The new regime clearly has neo-Nazi sympathizers and is losing popular support by the day.

Open your mind for a moment, and imagine, if you will, how the US would react to someone else installing a puppet regime in Mexico City and taking over the port of San Diego. No more nice trips to Cancun for winter vacations, and your Navy's winter port is now based in a foreign power. There would be a huge shit-fit. To the Russians, the Kiev coup was a bit like Pearl Harbor.

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Anonymous
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September 30, 2014 at 6:46 PM ×

LB, although I agree with you on FX Russian and their stocks, cataching falling knife there had been a rough stragety so far, hadn't it? On the other hand, Brazil seemed to be a much better knife here...

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abee crombie
admin
September 30, 2014 at 6:54 PM ×

http://imgur.com/X32CkwT HYG looks to be diverging from HYG shares outstanding. A positive sign

LB, as for Russia (and brazil) I'm sticking with the best, Sberbank and Itau. Yes the oils might be cheaper but those banks are best in class and mgmt has regard for s/h unlike PBR and Gazprom

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Leftback
admin
September 30, 2014 at 7:04 PM ×

As always, discipline and patience pay off, and one has to be nimble with the Kevlar gloves, have tried to pick up Gazprom ADRs under $7 each time RSX has been puked. USDRUB 40 seems like such an important Big Figure, it's hard to resist the Russians this time. Agree on SBR but the oils have surely now been hated as much as is possible.

End of quarter is such a good time to be out shopping.... think of Q4 '13, when munis and REIT preferreds were being thrown out with the bathwater. Imagine people just basically giving you a 7-8% yield... such generosity.

We sold our puts today, hard not to expect one more mindless rally this week, especially with Q4 money incoming. Bears need to rest a few days.

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Anonymous
admin
September 30, 2014 at 7:31 PM ×

C Says
I'll se your qtr 4 money and raise you an elevated margin

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Anonymous
admin
September 30, 2014 at 7:31 PM ×

C Says
I'll se your qtr 4 money and raise you an elevated margin

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Leftback
admin
September 30, 2014 at 9:11 PM ×

POMO on Thursday this week, for those punters still interested in front running the Fed. I reckon we are good for a two day rally here.

No POMOs between October 7 and 14. No POMOs at all after October 27th? Shurely shome mishtake? You have been warned. Margin hikes would be an added amusement. Happy Halloween, punters.

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Anonymous
admin
October 1, 2014 at 4:39 AM ×

USDJPY kissed 110 overnight. Draghi Time again on Thursday. Time to Buy The News in EURUSD?

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Nico G
admin
October 1, 2014 at 7:40 AM ×

great input as always FB, we understand you are trying to support your book here, like we all do

part of my family has done massive business in Russia, for your financial safety i have to tell you to refrain from comparing Russia to any other modern state

Putin is as different from Rousseff or Obama as vodka is to water and until the guy goes away, he is the only boss there read: unpredictable, and his last move in Ukraine has sent us 20 years back

if EURUSD could go from 0.83 to 1.6 in about 8 years, where exactly can you put a floor on RUB - the only way to catch a Russian knife is after Putin's cronies have caught it for you

it is not even about having big pockets here, and forget book values, do you know there is actually no accounting in Russia?

you either waterski behind the big boys in that country, or do not touch Russian assets not even with Bubka's pole

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Anonymous
admin
October 1, 2014 at 9:52 AM ×

well, on the RUB,

just discounting the RUB using CPI data of the last 5 years in Russia against CPI in the US gives you a fair value of USDRUB at 41.70, Currently 39.68
(Average Russia 5y CPI YoY 7.70%, US 1.60%)
Against EUR, you would get a 55.50 EURRUB level...Currently 50.05.
(Average Russia CPI YoY 7.70%, EU 1.70%)


If you add to this the relative productivity gain/loss of both regions .... A target of USDRUB 41.70 is not schocking at all.
Also the Russia Real Effective Exchange Rate Broad from the Bank for International Settlement on BBG BISBRUR Index gives you a RUB that isn't screamingly cheap.

Travis

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Nico G
admin
October 1, 2014 at 10:34 AM ×

in terms of inflow/outflow there is clearly more people getting out of Russian investments/RUB - with the majority of wealthy Russians increasingly moving out - than foreign investors jumping in

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Nico G
admin
October 1, 2014 at 11:07 AM ×

http://www.bruegel.org/nc/blog/detail/article/1443-russian-roulette-reloaded/

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Anonymous
admin
October 1, 2014 at 1:48 PM ×

Not really at all convinced by LB's Russian valuation rationale or recitation of Foreign Affairs articles suggesting the west is to blame for Russia's actions in Crimea/Ukraine.

The fact is buying Russia is taking Putin risk. If you want to trumpet the merits of Gazprom et al you need to account for how you avoid the next Sistema. Politics is not the obscuring factor, Putin is. If you are comfortable with that then fill your boots. Otherwise there are other bombed out energy and resource names in more predictable jurisdictions on sale.

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abee crombie
admin
October 1, 2014 at 2:15 PM ×

A few thoughts on Russia. The RUB seems in a free fall and it does worry me. But it will find support somewhere. The gov't has very little debt, large reserves and oil wont go much below $80-90 IMO

Investing in oils in Russia is a gamble, as the confiscation of Bashneft from Sistema has shown, thats why sometimes it might be better to go with a SOE, like Gazprom or Sberbank. Foreign capital does want in to develop oil fields, but only with the right conditions / politics, which arent in place. But make no mistake, Total, Exxon etc will invest there at some point.

Russian (and Brazilian) corps have been one of the largest EM fixed income issuers over the past few years when those markets were hot. So far the EM HY market is holding in there. If that starts to go, thats the one to watch. Russia OFZ a good proxy.

For those more adventurous there is Yandex and Magnit, both quality companies listed internationally.

MM, you EuroDollar butterfly spread is positive. What gives?

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Leftback
admin
October 1, 2014 at 3:55 PM ×

Nothing like a hemorrhagic virus to screw up the week's trading plan.... might be a few days before the noise abates. The first Ebola patient is no cause for panic, but the second one will be, if that ever happens.

Thanks for all the input on Russia, and sure, these are all reasonable arguments - but there's no new or unknown negatives there that haven't been apparent for some time. The present sentiment extremes on Russia are the foundation of market bottoms. In addition, many of the energy companies have transcended their national origins to some degree, and are on their way to becoming as multinational as BP and Total. If you know a bit about Central and Eastern Europe, you are aware of the inextricable linkage between these companies and many smaller land-locked nations (Slovakia, Austria etc), as well as large resource-poor industrial giants (Germany).

As I have stated here before, there are very few genuine free market democracies now (certainly not the US, which is in Full On Crony Capitalism), so all we are doing these days is to choose which oligarchy to invest in. I'm well aware that I am expressing a non-consensus view of events in Ukraine/Russia here, but my perspective on this issue is a little different from most US observers.

If you think we are heading into a second Cold War period, then risk is extremely high, but I don't happen to share that point of view. The idea that everyone in Europe is now a Russian-hating free market capitalist who loves McDonalds and wears Stars and Stripes underwear is a bit off the mark. It's much more complicated than the media likes to paint it for the US audience. The average European privately thinks that the US is clumsy, clueless and arrogant, but obviously they have to live with it, just as they do with Russia.

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Polemic
admin
October 1, 2014 at 4:00 PM ×

Russia has a growing binary function to it which supersedes all analysis of cash flows, assets, returns etcetc.

Will you be able to get your money out to once you are in. Creeping Western shut down and Russian stubbornness in the face of 'imperialist' sanctions just sees Russia growing its bonds with China, as FDI figures are showing that EUR/US money is being replaced from the east, leaving the west with the choice of backing down or squeezing the screw tighter ( sen if t doesn't work). So ADR spreads will move against locally quoted and restrictions to dealing onshore will get tighter and tighter.

Nothing in the Russian game plan points to backing down and Mr P uses sanctions as a nationalistic rallying call. I mean how do you think US would react to Russian sanctions? Would they back down? It would just be more guns and guys called Hank cursing the damn ruskie.

As for E-Bola if their was a DEFCON for ebola we would be a EBOLACON3

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Polemic
admin
October 1, 2014 at 4:02 PM ×

sorry for typos .. new computer and its spellcheck is more creative than a Jackson pollock ( had to override it saying bullock there)

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Leftback
admin
October 1, 2014 at 4:30 PM ×

Polemic, I think what is going to happen is that at some point Germany and other central/northern European countries will eventually tell the US to stick its sanctions and NATO adventures in Ukraine up its arse, because they are f*cking with the economy of a large part of Europe. The extent of economic activity between Germany, Poland, Hungary, Austria, Czech Republic and Slovakia, Finland, Greece, even Italy with Russia has been under-appreciated. The Cold War is over. Really.

The recent outbreak of sabre rattling and neocon US interventionism is not only stupid politics, it is very bad economic policy as well, and we are already seeing the results. If the fuel supply gets cut off in Mitteleuropa this winter b/c someone in Washington wants to play Napoleon, then the Mangler is not going to be a happy camper.

I have said this before, but it bears repeating. The Russians are different. They are extremely patient and not averse to a bit of discomfort in the short term in order to outwit and defeat an enemy. Napoleon and Hitler inflicted all kinds of damage on the Russian army, only to be defeated in the end. Taking on Russia (even economically) during the winter is sheer folly, and the Europeans know this all too well. This too shall pass.

Now on a more mundane level, what's the story with Tesco? Will this iconic British brand survive?

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Polemic
admin
October 1, 2014 at 4:40 PM ×

So the investment in Russia is actually based on a Western backdown? Good I'll go with that. I we will spot the backdown first through western media reports of Ukrainian nastiness ( rebalance the public opinion). We see that works as it only took 12mths for them to change sides in Syria.

Tescos - Fkd. caught in the middle ( yes I am one of those happy bimodal shoppers who uses Lidl and Waitrose ( try Lidl's Chocolate and hazelnut gingerbreads they have in at the moment and you can kiss Fortnum and Mason good-bye ). I can't think of anything I'd go to Tesco specifically for.

What is more oaf a concern to me is the way they and now Balfour Beatty have produced shockers with respect to accountancy expectations. I am worried that what we are seeing are the first crack in balance sheet ( and now P+L a/c in the case of Tesco) manipulation that has stretched the envelope of teasing max results from accounts to the point that the first slow down and they burst.

How many more stretched accounting practices are going to pop when real economy slackens?

Balance sheets are the the cause of most financial woes., normally due to the blx rules that others make up to apply to them.

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Nico G
admin
October 1, 2014 at 4:47 PM ×

the cold war is over, you say. I loved Merkel's last diatribe:

"“We needed 40 years to overcome East Germany. Sometimes in history one has to be prepared for the long haul, and not ask after four months if it still makes sense to keep up our demands.”"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-29/merkel-says-eu-u-s-may-be-facing-long-ukraine-crisis.html

as much as it is fancy to believe in a new Russia-Germany-France triumvirat those days, there are too many historical ties between the US and Germany for Merkel to turn away

she is walking a tight diplomatic rope and you do not realize how much trust in Putin has been broken so i will repeat: until he goes, noone should invest in Russia

as you have already seen Putin can 'bankrupt' any company he wants if he sees fit. If Gazprom was ever threatening it would go to zero and its assets transferred to a new crony

As a shareholder, you would feel plenty sorry. i am European, my wife is Russian we are certainly very far from US observers

MM speaks French so have him watch that excellent documentary from Arte TV

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oxd_cws5tX4

and sum it up for you later on

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Mr. T
admin
October 1, 2014 at 4:56 PM ×

LB, I think you are spot on about the foreign policy situation. To bring that back to markets its why I continue to believe the whole vertical of US-exporting-LNG is going to be a great long term secular play.

So with USD strength at some point hurting US multinationals, is that bullish or bearish for the stocks? If we are looking at the top and bottom lines, its gotta be bearish. If companies are going to just up their buybacks to still hit the EPS targets, is it positive?

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Leftback
admin
October 1, 2014 at 4:59 PM ×

Schatz still negative and Bunds at a new low yield today.

Yes, of course the West is going to back down..

Obama: "Fellow Americans. I have just come from the golf course to share some important news with you. We just found out that the State Department had the facts wrong, because they were holding the intelligence reports upside down, like I did with ISIS, when I told folks they were a JV team (chuckles...). So it turns out that we just got a call from Frau Merkel and her folks, along with Missyoor 'Olond, letting us know that there were actually "bad guys" in Kiev and "good guys" in Donetsk, so I have opened bilateral talks with Mr Putin. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to make a 4 footer for par").

They better do this soon or there is only going to be Dr Aghi and his conjuring tricks standing between Europe and a 1930s-style Depression. Poor Obama, by the way, he wanted to be FDR but Congress wouldn't play ball, and he ended up being Richard I, leading Crusades in lands far away.....

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Anonymous
admin
October 1, 2014 at 5:20 PM ×

Russian wife huh.. lucky bastard

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Leftback
admin
October 1, 2014 at 5:44 PM ×

The only Cold War this winter will be between the Ukrainian people and their rinky-dink unelected government in Kiev - when there isn't enough fuel to keep lights on, homes heated and factories running. Those old enough to recall Britain's 3-day week in the 70s will remember the consequences of tangling with one's energy providers (a coal miners strike).

Ukraine will probably have another coup before the end of 2015, and end up dumping the US puppet rulers, paying Gazprom and their shareholders all the money they owe and kissing Putin's arse at the partition talks, before resuming life and returning to the international debt markets as a smaller and wiser country.

Nico obviously won't have any trouble staying warm this winter... :-)

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Nico G
admin
October 1, 2014 at 6:12 PM ×

Disclaimer: a Russian wife is by no mean representative of investment performance, past or present

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Anonymous
admin
October 2, 2014 at 11:05 AM ×

Yes it is funny how, seemingly the US is using the EU as an economic battering ram for the sanctions. There is a national hierarchy in the EU and because it is so bonded together, it is easy to control from the outside. "CoC" USA > Germany-France > Rest of Europe.

The US is far away and couldn't care less what shocks the EZ economy takes. But still a bit strange how humbly all the nations comply.

My own personal opinion is that the Ukraine has a loooooong history with the Sov... Russian federation and it really ain't a part of Europe. It is in the best interest of EU to draw a strict line, which would result in a serious mobilization. Ukraine isn't part of that line and not worth it.

Baltics/Finland/Poland on the other hand is. The point just is that aimlessly screwing around with some vague "sanctions" is giving Mr. P nothing but just some laughs with his general staff. Either be serious or shut up.

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