Things that make you go hmmmmmmm

Equities:   Continuing to trade off the back foot

Fixed income: Finally catching a bit of a bid

Dollar: Evidently invincible, making multi-year highs


Hmmmm....


(As an aside, did you know that the largest weekly gain for EUR/USD in Q3 was 12 pips?  And it did it twice?  And that those were the only two positive weeks for the euro all quarter?)
Previous
Next Post »

26 comments

Click here for comments
Nico G
admin
October 1, 2014 at 6:38 PM ×

i think someone asked about Tesco in the previous thread

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/business/supermarkets-to-stop-hiding-contempt-for-customers-2014100191236

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 1, 2014 at 8:37 PM ×

C Says
I think we are rapidly arriving at the key moment of revulsion for TSCO and that sector in general. In other words the market has per usual is about to spit it's dummy at the right point to start buying.
Yes, the new entrants are doing well, but yes they've done most of that whilst 3 of the big 4 were asleep at the wheel. Far as I am concerned we will shortly have a price level where the bad news is in the price and we are picking up assets at a price where selective breakup potential outweighs downside risks.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 1, 2014 at 8:48 PM ×

C Says
In fact to extend that argument of 'moats' breaking down I would think being short the big elect/Gas companies would be a great next step.Obviously,those a more dependent on the UK domestic market should head the queue. They are going to be shredded by their new entrants just like the supermarkets.

Reply
avatar
Polemic
admin
October 1, 2014 at 8:50 PM ×

C .. buy the grid owners and sell the folks they lease it to.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 1, 2014 at 9:07 PM ×

Is market overreacting on the Brazil election? How bad could it be?

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 1, 2014 at 9:56 PM ×

+187 on 2-10yr curve .... Picturing Plosser screaming at Yellen to unload $100bln long bonds to stop the madness

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 1, 2014 at 10:00 PM ×

Commerzbank money laundering...busting sanctions

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-28/commerzbank-said-to-face-u-s-laundering-controls-probe.html

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 1, 2014 at 10:32 PM ×

30yr UST continues to rally in AH ...now 3.09% ( < 2bps away from the 17mo low yield )

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
October 2, 2014 at 3:16 PM ×

We also saw something yesterday we hadn't seen in a long time. Yen buying.....

We got long some Euros yesterday. It's been one way traffic as MM pointed out, and if the US doesn't end up producing the consensus truly magnificent jobs number, dollar longs might end up emulating this Croatian driver:

Tisno Bridge

More revulsion today for Russian equities, perhaps not a shocker with crude oil down hard. Lukoil ADRs under $50. Petrobras as popular as Pabst Blue Ribbon, and trading like it.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 2, 2014 at 3:17 PM ×

Is Draghi delaying the numeric details because the council agreed to make the final numbers market path-dependent after the presser?

Reply
avatar
Polemic
admin
October 2, 2014 at 3:23 PM ×

MM did the hard work of defining the portfolio you need in this situation

here is the list and proportion of shorts you need

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bb82mYGSWsA/VAW2lUGcJMI/AAAAAAAAKOQ/XYnoTSYPu-8/s1600/end%2Bof%2Byear.png

Kindly provided on this very site by MM's 'top trades for Q4 survey. So we just do the reverse to get the perfect weighted positional liquidation trade.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 2, 2014 at 3:26 PM ×

Gaggle of black swans? How long can ZIRP keep them away?

Argentina
Hong Kong
Mid East
Ukraine
Brazil
Russia
Corporate bonds
$USD
Commodities
Sovereign bonds
Ebola

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlyTvlvi0gU

Reply
avatar
Mr. T
admin
October 2, 2014 at 4:52 PM ×

I think the real black swan is RTY2k is actually making money for once.

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
October 2, 2014 at 5:42 PM ×

"man we had ALL those warnings, SP was still above 2000 for the rum Baba and i didn't sell"

it is not very Christian of me but i want all those complacent longs to go through hell

if you need a wall to bang your head on send me an email

Reply
avatar
abee crombie
admin
October 2, 2014 at 6:00 PM ×

H&S in Russel (courtesy of http://gavekal.blogspot.com/)

SO I guess its time to buy.

Lots of stuff looks interesting to nibble here

Wouldnt be surprise to see outside reversal here in R2K

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
October 2, 2014 at 6:06 PM ×

Complacent longs on margin already getting their toes amputated, Nico! The Hell comes later, after the neck-snapping face-ripping squeeze-driven rally.

Btw, MM, about Ebola. Bernanke just called. He said "Don't worry, it's contained".

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 2, 2014 at 6:29 PM ×

well, buffet was saying this morning that he's buying, but would not name names. so you follow the big fish i guess

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 2, 2014 at 6:55 PM ×

Lotsa panic among commodity hedge funds who know only too well its a space that goes NO BID in times like this

With plays like RIG crushed , they now going after everything else in energy . HP just bonecrushed as algos rush to short anything

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 2, 2014 at 7:30 PM ×

Just waiting...

http://imgur.com/ShBn7eL

Caldaro has some much lower targets...

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2014/10/01/wednesday-update-459/

Reply
avatar
abee crombie
admin
October 2, 2014 at 7:32 PM ×

Reversal day? in oil, R2k, Fx

will need confirmation tom, but lets see

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 2, 2014 at 7:34 PM ×

William Lazonick

"...the top 449 companies in the S&P 500 spent $2.4tn – or more than half their profits – on buybacks in those years ( 2003-2012 ). They spent almost the same again in dividend payouts. Taken together, they came to 91 per cent of net income. (…)

Reply
avatar
Mr. T
admin
October 2, 2014 at 8:24 PM ×

We have been in low/zero vol for so long target-dsd based strategies are getting tossed around quite a bit here. Enough to create some kind of real risk-reduction cycle? I think the amount of actual vol needed to create a meaningful change in face values is a lot lower than people expect.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 2, 2014 at 8:39 PM ×

Haloo is that Dave?!
Gimme some proper fuckin vol Dave!

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
October 2, 2014 at 10:53 PM ×

We are 15 days before options expiration, so those holding October puts are already starting to cash out. The penultimate week before OpEx has been carnage for anyone in a bear suit this year, and the number tomorrow can easily be interpreted in any way that supports buying the market. "Strong Jobs - Good News", "Weak Jobs - No Rate Hike - Good News", and "Goldilocks Number - Good News".

But make no mistake, the Bears have tasted blood, made money and they are going to be back in force.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
October 3, 2014 at 5:29 AM ×

NFP (No F*cking Point) day tomorrow, LB is going to take the day off, keep half an eye on FX and resume on Monday. But of course we can't resist a stab at BLS Bingo. Eyes Down....

We'll go for a quite unbelievable 230k this time, to make up for last month's wimpy number, and a few revisions. Wait for the squeals from Swonk and Zandi... it's all quite meaningless, of course, as there will be no change in hours worked or hourly wages. Normal service will be resumed next week.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 3, 2014 at 10:29 AM ×

C says
LB,
I found the Ebola/Bernanke comment all too relevant. If risk complacency abounds in investment it is surely matched by the idiocy of the people charged with controlling the outbreak of Ebola.
That is, when you consider the ramifications of Ebola spreading in any highly populated part of the developed world exactly what level of risk is acceptable by allowing people to travel from the infected region to highly populated destinations? To what decimal point would you take it? Why would you repatriate one infected person to the US when the consequences of something going wrong could be counted in the millions?
Apologies if it sounds cold ,but have people forgotten the concept of the greater good?

Reply
avatar