Wednesday, September 05, 2012
Just as new Operating System upgrades are keenly awaited by phone nerds, so we financial nerds are keenly awaiting Global Stimulation upgrades.
US - The iPhone Operating System. Its been around for years does what it says on the tin though is ridiculously expensive. TMM think QE3 is most likely this month unless we see a huge surprise improvement in the unemployment rate which is hugely unlikely.
China - Android - Used by the masses, cheap and ubiquitous, there may be upgrades going on in the background but you really can't tell if they have been done or made any difference. Hello China? Is anybody at home? Or is this just a big game of chicken?
Europe - The Nokia/Microsoft launch. Amazing amount of hype but is it really going to resurrect an outdated platform? We all await Dr Aghi's announcement as it becomes pretty clear that the ECB is going to play the "It IS in our mandate so get back in your box Buba" card. But the politics appear to dictate that at least trying to curry German favour should be seen to be attempted even if it is to ultimately be ignored. leaving TMM thinking that Europe Ex Germany (the new EXG zone) is attempting a negligent parent policy leaving Weidmann like this:-
Whilst the parents pop out for this:-
Today's comments from Dr.Aghi are reinforcing the impression that he IS going to fire the bazooka, well at least the 3yr unlimited sterilised bond purchase type, but still they offer crumbs to the petulant Weidmann. TMM can only assume that the comment from Draghi that *ECB SAID TO CONSIDER SELLING BONDS IF CONDITIONS NOT MET. Is purely political bluster, for the benefit of German ears for though sounding like a threat of tough enforcement of conditions, the implementation of such a threat would be nothing short of nuclear on many levels.
But as far as market confidence goes, since those statements Euro has rallied , Spain yields have fallen sharply and most interesting of all, EUR/CHF HAS MOVED! Ok its not a lot in points terms at time of writing but it's at new month highs. A cheap option for a euro bazooka? We know where the floor is but the sky could be the limit if the SNB catch an ECB mood. Whatever the reason (unless it is SNB themselves forcing it higher) there will be less recycling into the likes of SEK and AUD both of which have been as soft as a ship owner's order book recently. Hmmmm.
This afternoon's price action suggests the market is fully discounting tomorrow's ECB announcement as a world beater so God forbid it turns out to be just Europatch 1.0.768 - Available for download but not in conjunction with previous offers, not compatible with Spanish, Italian or Greek debt, please see manufacturers guidelines, any breach of conditions will void warranty.