Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Waiting for Europatch 1.0.768

Just as new Operating System upgrades are keenly awaited by phone nerds, so we financial nerds are keenly awaiting Global Stimulation upgrades.

US - The iPhone Operating System. Its been around for years does what it says on the tin though is ridiculously expensive. TMM think QE3 is most likely this month unless we see a huge surprise improvement in the unemployment rate which is hugely unlikely.

China - Android - Used by the masses, cheap and ubiquitous, there may be upgrades going on in the background but you really can't tell if they have been done or made any difference. Hello China? Is anybody at home? Or is this just a big game of chicken?

Europe - The Nokia/Microsoft launch. Amazing amount of hype but is it really going to resurrect an outdated platform? We all await Dr Aghi's announcement as it becomes pretty clear that the ECB is going to play the "It IS in our mandate so get back in your box Buba" card. But the politics appear to dictate that at least trying to curry German favour should be seen to be attempted even if it is to ultimately be ignored. leaving TMM thinking that Europe Ex Germany (the new EXG zone) is attempting a negligent parent policy leaving Weidmann like this:-

Whilst the parents pop out for this:-

Today's comments from Dr.Aghi are reinforcing the impression that he IS going to fire the bazooka, well at least the 3yr unlimited sterilised bond purchase type, but still they offer crumbs to the petulant Weidmann. TMM can only assume that the comment from Draghi that *ECB SAID TO CONSIDER SELLING BONDS IF CONDITIONS NOT MET. Is purely political bluster, for the benefit of German ears for though sounding like a threat of tough enforcement of conditions, the implementation of such a threat would be nothing short of nuclear on many levels.

But as far as market confidence goes, since those statements Euro has rallied , Spain yields have fallen sharply and most interesting of all, EUR/CHF HAS MOVED! Ok its not a lot in points terms at time of writing but it's at new month highs. A cheap option for a euro bazooka? We know where the floor is but the sky could be the limit if the SNB catch an ECB mood. Whatever the reason (unless it is SNB themselves forcing it higher) there will be less recycling into the likes of SEK and AUD both of which have been as soft as a ship owner's order book recently. Hmmmm.

This afternoon's price action suggests the market is fully discounting tomorrow's ECB announcement as a world beater so God forbid it turns out to be just Europatch 1.0.768 - Available for download but not in conjunction with previous offers, not compatible with Spanish, Italian or Greek debt, please see manufacturers guidelines, any breach of conditions will void warranty.


Anonymous said...

Nice TMM,

Who gets to be RIM though?

Polemic said...

RIM -- er Japan ? First entrant into the game in the 1990s, never really updated the product bringing out the same old thing year after year hoping it would work until they realise too late that even their stalwart local supporters are losing patience and bin them for other systems.

Charles Butler said...

Pressure's on Draghi this morning. ES 2yr briefly broke 3% this morning. Blood everywhere if he doesn't deliver.

Did you notice the 1680's won in your earlier gold poll?

Leftback said...

Non apocalyptic (+175k or so) US jobs likely indicated by ADP number. If the Drag comes through today with something convincing, then BB may be able to leave the helicopter at home after all.

Dollar rally, anyone? After a day or two of wiggling around a bit, running stops etc.......

abee crombie said...

sell the news?

conditionality = code for leave it to the politicians and we just have a bazooka if we need it

what they do with portugal should be interesting.

Charles Butler said...

Unlimited size, all pari passu. Removal of the rating floor for collateral. Will that do the trick?

Tesoro issued 2yr at 2.8% this morning. Don't even need the ECB.

Charles Butler said...

Sell the news happened. Lasted about an hour. The 2-yr yield went up 30 off lows after the auction. Now down to +10.

Dee Dee Humberside said...

Isn't most of the equity upside already in the price though?

Wouldn't sell, but wouldn't add too aggressively either here

Dee Dee Humberside said...

Well ... goes to show how much I know, really

don't fight the money flows they say. still, this TWINE proponent, after having endured so many false starts and a cruel spring, is itching to take some off after a very decent run.

Leftback said...

A welcome day for the Spanish Kevlar crowd. Now we are wondering if the FX paralysis period is over, and whether some of the bugs, sorry precious metals and mining enthusiasts, have got a bit ahead of themselves. So LB will be looking at the other side of that trade once the initial squeezing is over.

With Super Mario no longer behind the curve, we think The Wizard might not need to announce any extra sorcery next week after all. This September might prove to be a bad month for some of the havens, including gold, JPY, gilts, bunds and Treasuries. Direction of US equities is less predictable, but it depends on how much extra liquidity had already been priced in. We prefer to simply not be involved.

abee crombie said...

i stand very much corrected.. the equity algos came right in at 9:30

anyway lets pay attention to the lagging, oft revised NFP, says S&P

I dunno, I'm not big short, but global growth and earnings revisions are both trending lower. This is good for Europe but not going to solve the worlds problems... lets see if S&P can stay 2 weeks above 1420.. then I'll believe it