Thursday, September 13, 2012
Hamlet Act III - Basically they will or they won't or they may do a bit or they may not or they.... Oh take your pick and trade on it if you like but all we'll say is if there is no glimmer of QEness then the markets are going to tank and the dollar zoom higher. Much as this may help out our eur/usd turn call, it really would be too messy to consider as helpful to global confidence. Considering how Europe has nearly achieved the impossible in turning around sentiment, it would hardly be polite for Ben to then drag the dog out to the wood shed just after Draghi has spent so much on vet bills.
Europe- No change from yesterday's views, we are still looking for eur/usd to roll lower accompanied by Spain yields ticking up again. Will Spain miff eveyone off now by not running into the straitjacket that France is kindly holding open for them? But we are wondering if the wealth of push back we are getting on that idea from friends and colleagues is indicative of us being more right, OR about to be hit by an FOMC driven steam-roller doing Mach 3.
Its just like [insert year here] - Currently 2009 is the year of choice for many but to TMM that reflects that general towel chucking extrapolationista mood change of the last 3 days. But as per Fat boy Slim, it's "come a long way baby" already. The main difference between 2009 and now is that the data hasn't yet rebounded. We still prefer the answer "none of the above" to the question " which year does this resemble"
Any old Iron - Talking earlier of being dragged out to woodsheds, all those calls for 0.9500 aus/usd have gone somewhat muted and even against Euro Aud has been flatlining rather than falling. Iron ore +15% from its base. Ho Hum, pass the bear baton to Fortescue.
Apple - Well.. in TMMs eyes, Form is writing checks that Function can't cash and the Iphone 5 is going to be leaning heavily on Apple's fashion and religious functions. Will Apple start correlating to Burberry? Has last night's party in Korea finished yet? The Daily Mash has a point
Back to work. May the fomc be with you.