You know it's May when..

Thursday, May 17, 2012

You know it's May when-

1) Greece is doing its best to detract holiday makers and you wonder if you should forgo the deposit on your Greek Holiday.
2) David Cameron is crowing about how to run Europe.
3) Your inbox is full of crowing statements from FX banks about how well they've done in a Euromoney Survey.
4) You live in London and are diagnosed with rickets through lack of sunlight.
5) There is a deafening silence from the Eurostriches. It normally takes until August for them to schedule a meeting for late September.
6) FX spot traders rummage in the drawer for last year's "what basis swaps are" notes.
7) Analysts just Tippex out and change the year on their research notes, confident that no one ever read them the first time round.
8) "Sell in May" statistical proofs hit your desk.
9) Your grandmother sends you old cuttings on how to grow your own veg and build an air-raid shelter.
10) EGDF replaces DGDF (see glossary)
11) No one cares about economic data.
12) The BBC question whether Van Rompuy deserves his last year's bonus.
13) Your P+L looks like the deck of a Japanese whaling ship.
14) Price Is News with "hasn't been here since [insert last time]" headlines dominating.
15) Despite the end of the world,  someone manages to IPO a grillion $s worth of non-controlling shares in a company that everyone uses for free.
16) High yield pipeline dries up, liquidity dries up, the fund's credit trader starts punting index / working on his putt / is not in the office.
17) Zerohedge and Hotcopper light up with "why is GDX going down" oriented posts with the comments explaining some conspiracy.
18) Football competitions start to be cited as pivotal market driving events.
19) France and Germany pretend to be best mates.
20) Team Macro Man start leafing through the "situations vacant" column of the local parish magazine.

Posted by Polemic at 1:53 PM  

24 comments:

21) When you send out emails to follow up on a project, everyone is out of office and will be back in two weeks...

Anonymous said...
2:06 PM  

After 14 years of doing this I am still amazed at the Eurostriche.... I shouldn't be, I know, but Von Rumpuy just makes me wonder how the guy who got wedgies at school ended up doing.....ahh.....whatever it is that he does. Draghi: just busy on other stuff today mate ?

Anonymous said...
2:35 PM  

C says'
Don't look now ,but Walmart closed the gap.I can't miss the opportunity to 'crow' it might be along time before I get another chance.
TMM,perhaps you'd like to borrow my harpoon ?

Anonymous said...
2:42 PM  

21. Fisher blows hawkish on QE3 so the market prices it in.

Steve said...
3:41 PM  

finally some sell off in credit.

lets see I can buy FB for 100x earnings or IBM, AAPL, CSCO, Goog (or any other major tech ) at 12 or so

But all my non investing buddies are asking me how do I get shares of fb

I think germany is full of masochists. Just print already. In the long run we will all be dead!

abee crombie said...
3:43 PM  

Hmm, interesting things today. Short squeeze in gold is funny to watch, but with the US 10y getting down towards 1.7 we should all be heading for the shelter soon I think.

QE3 is coming, but we could have to wait for 1280ish on Spoos.

Facebook is the greatest joke of all times. Many things in my world are irrational as a macro analyst, but tech IPOs generally seem to me to be the biggest hoaxs of all time.

Claus

CV said...
4:21 PM  

A Japanese Whale ship?....that's no good, Polemic..

Shhh..no mention of football..the powers that be are watching....

(I've been over there too long)

Amplitudeinthehouse said...
4:36 PM  

Not sure how many here follow credit, but the squeeze on JPM is hilarious. S9 protection already in summer '11 territory

Dee Dee Humberside said...
5:43 PM  

we are almost at 0 in schatz, 2-3 more days of this and the gong show starts!

abee crombie said...
7:30 PM  

TEF good for a swing, innit?

Anonymous said...
8:58 PM  

22) When the market is so bad you can't afford the deposit on the Greek holiday and leaf through brochures from Skegness and Clacton-on-Sea...

Anon @ 8:58. Hilarious, LOL! There will be an unholy squeeze of epic proportions in Spanish equities at some point, as usual one wonders if one will have the necessary intestinal fortitude to wait this out....

LB ignored the market completely today after watching EURUSD turn up sharply after the lousy Philly Fed number. A very good chance that the long dollar rally is over now. We have been saying for a while that the US decoupling story was absurd and the strong dollar trade was getting ahead of itself. The gold market and energy stocks clearly got that message and may be signaling the arrival of the liquidity cavalry as well.

As for people selling over-priced crap today, well that always makes sense in May. Of course, when people need liquidity, they inevitably end up selling shares that have value and yield, along with the all the "growth" crap. So once more into the drawer for those gauntlets?

Leftback said...
9:47 PM  

C says'
You have to let the herd thunder and get it off it's chest so to speak.

Given that I think I was the only one who said Greece would not be leaving the Euro ,or at least within the context of the latest spat let me offer this thought.
From my dealings with our Greek ,or Cypriot Greek friends over the years it has oft been my thought that they are an emotional bunch.Their blood runs hotter than hot far more readily than us Northerners.Because of this they can vow war unto death one day and wake up the next day when calmer and when asked about the "war" they will simply shrug that was yesterday. What I am trying to say is the first election was IMO the Greeks getting their disatisfaction off their chest in a rush of blood to the head and having done so I am pretty confident you will find in the second election that the disatisafaction vote will be considerably lower as they vote with their heads and inline with their core wishes and they will bring back in the usual suspects duly chastened.

Demetrios is getting crafty.He's brought his mate Ignacio from Barthelonaaa with him and we are now up to an Olive orchard in Kalamata plus a modest villa in Roses in exchange for my summer house and lawn grazing privileges.Tempting,but one wonders if there is not also a Luigi waiting in the wings to sweeten the deal !

Anonymous said...
10:16 PM  

Speaking Goldfinger the other day..I said

" F-me..it's looking like James is off to the races...have those guys in Yennish suits cotton on yet?..

Goldfinger..

"Let get it straight, the market isn't the economy, but, it always catches up now and again.

Amplitudeinthehouse said...
3:35 AM  

c SAYS'
Friday more welcome this week than most.
SP futures below 1300 so we know the markets got a target and will at least attempt to produce buying support not far below this point.The touted number will be the well trodden 1280 (how do they manage this crap every 20 points is supposed to be some kind of magical support point talk aout meaningless tripe).
Actually I suspect given the context current and ahead in June it will probably end up in the 1250/60 range.
Further out no matter what happens by way of sticking plasters the current global lending market has once again be rattled to it's core.All sorts of financial decisions get revised.Invesment and consumption decisions and I would expect this to mean even lower growth figures in the H2 2012
Based upon a slowdown that is indecipherable from recession and the wayward September to come I note that in September 2011 the range was 1150-1200 and I think that is a fundamental target for the market to meet economy.In other words year on year it reflect overall stagnation which of course still puts' the US way ahead of most European countries.
It also reflects a 15-20% drop from the highs which is where people get can ultimately bearish enough to start discussing fullblown bear markets etc which will be a full turnaround from the bullish extreme that prevailed at the 1400's.Moreover it sets up the Oct-May 2012/13 to have something to rally to without which all i can see is a lot of people getting chopped to hell in a very small compressed range in the middle.
What about up forecasts based upon Ben don't see any worth talking about given I think everything above 1350 was an out and out bull trap.So a Ben induced rally for me to be worthwhile jumping onto it would need to be starting lower.
Have a nice weekend.

Anonymous said...
7:21 AM  

2012

A) P\e expansion?

B) China QE?

C) LTRO? what is it good for?(apart from saving the banks)

These are the variables that I thought would prove solid to bring this market to life...which way though, you could see coming a mile off as the year progressed, as Amplitudeinthehouse ate dogshit and train in his local gym.

Amplitudeinthehouse said...
9:00 AM  

c SAYS'
Just in case I come across negative even when markets are going down not everything is going down at the same time is it unless we are in crescendo mood. I will take the trades that gapped up yesterday now they have come back to an acceptable market order point because I think they are ideally positioned to handout a short squeeze.
Yes Demtrios,Ignacio and brother Luigi it 's a deal you've worn me down.My summer house and grazing right s to the lawn for one Olive orchard in Kalamata, one modest villa in Roses and a small jetty with landing rights on Lake Garda. I'm not usually this charitable !

Anonymous said...
9:05 AM  

C says'
Lastly,I promise,going intot his weekend I leave you with this thought. Bailout in junk/high yield laughable really.I would guess at least probably 2 out of 3 buy into this yield stuff muttering they will hold to maturity then first whiff of problems and they are on their bike. I now LB will be watching this like an hawk as I will because they will undoubtedly bring this stuff back to where it again a steal. Talk mean reversion,what is reverting is the utter predictability of human behaviour ...Pavlov can I have a word please I have this experiment you might be interested in.

Anonymous said...
9:11 AM  

Op Ex in the US, traditionally a very quiet day of nonsense trade and a perfect day for silly IPOs of a company that will transfer a great deal of investor money from their pockets to Mark Zuckerberg, Goldman Sachs and Peter Thiel.

LB hasn't the remotest interest in this, and nor does he have any interest in US fixed income here as we are now sitting at one of those weird points where rate risk, credit risk and currency risk are all poised to strike one or more sectors of the US credit markets. All I can see out there is risk and low yields. Shorting Treasuries remains a probable widowmaker for the time being, so just stay away.

It would have to be a large move up in yields and/or a large widening of spreads to generate any interest. Only bad things can happen, except perhaps in mortgages which has gradually become a relatively dull, quiet and hence somewhat profitable sector.

So unless you want to sit in cash for months, one doesn't have a lot of choice other than to bite the bullet and catch a few knives in equities around the world, hoping to snag some useful yield in the process. After a few years of reflation around the globe, and a Eurozone not dismantled, with the world not ending after all, we will all forget this May shitshow and exactly what prices we paid for those steadily productive assets.

Have a great weekend, all. LB will be putting the finishing touches to his underground shelter in case the DX breaks above 82. It's been a shit week, but not being leveraged or over-emotional helps one stay in one piece.

Leftback said...
3:23 PM  

C says'
LB
I took the move on gold to indicate that at least in the short term moneyflow had found found a reallocation point where it preferred dollar denominated gold to gold denominated treasuries. Hence, given the different sizes of the markets I would have thought the dollar basket was going to go into sidways mode at least whch would probably reflect a queeze to fx plays that had become too one sided.

I'm not interested in going back into the high yield fixed yet,but given the mom this week I can now put it back on watch to see how far they want to take this and hopefully that will be far enough to offer up some opportunities for holding purposes.

Anonymous said...
6:49 AM  

"dollar denominated treasuries"
Should have read te above.

Anonymous said...
6:50 AM  

You know it's May when a Greek "Geuro"plan is mooted and given serious airplay... Argentina 2001 redux, remember the "patacón"?

Greek Patacónes?

Leftback said...
6:36 PM  

The "risk off" (sorry!) FX moves may be winding down. This is starting to have a finished look:

AUDJPY Chart

This may be the most important of all:

EURJPY Chart

Leftback said...
7:45 PM  

One or two more people are starting to notice the world isn't ending:

Go Shopping in Europe

A few money quotes:

Unfortunately for most American investors, they are still too scared to invest. I understand that, but it's wrong.

I have heard investors say repeatedly "What if it goes lower?" I am almost to the point of saying "So what if it does?" Too many people are so absorbed with emotions when it comes to their money that they lack any long-term perspective anymore.

The question people who are sitting in cash ought to be asking this summer is, "What if the world doesn't end?" And the corollary question, "What will still be in business in 10 years?"

Leftback said...
8:01 PM  

C says'
Lb,
"The question people who are sitting in cash ought to be asking this summer is, "What if the world doesn't end?" And the corollary question, "What will still be in business in 10 years?"

That might be the question you are asking,but the answer to any question is always Chocolate ,or in this case selling has got a case of choccy sickness from overeating and needs to puke a bit back. Nothing particularly macro ,or profound about a market that goes too far too fast.

Anonymous said...
8:58 AM  

Post a Comment