Many years ago when TMM were junior probationary assistant trainee dealers they came across this term scrawled over deal tickets that were being sent back to the back office after a query. When consulting with medical friends it appeared that it was also commonly used on path lab requests returned asking why the test was necessary. Now TMM are screaming it at their screens every time they see a headline along the lines of "XYZ European central bank/government/politician hasn't yet decided on anything".
So please - Calling all Eurostriches, rabbits in headlights, procrastinating bureaucrats hopelessly out of their depths, policy wonks who can't bend the current rules enough to fit, political leaders having to cope with something beyond local opinion polls, Germans hung up on outdated fears of hyperinflation, Frenchmen hung up on not being peripheral and peripherals who just don't realise the game is up .... JUST F'ING DO IT!
If it involves kicking Germany out with Greece; if it involves pawning the Sistine Chapel, Alhambra, and the Elgin Marbles (again); if it involves running the printing presses until they melt; if it means nationalising banks under a general Europe umbrella raather than a domestic one; even if it involves taking us back to the stone age - PLEASE JUST GET ON WITH IT! Some of us have lives to lead and watching the sandcastle of the Euro dissolve as the tide of reality comes in, is as predictable, sad and frustrating as watching the real thing at the end of a balmy day on the beach. Either kick it down, walk away or get the JCBs in to protect it with a 30ft coffer dam as some of us need to move on.
But still it drags on. Yet again today's headlines continue to be a passage of indecision, full of "nots" and "haven'ts" against "wills" and "doings" whilst the market is fast evolving into a "no news is bad news" mode and until we can get this elephant out of the room we can't focus on what else is going on in the real world. For now it's a mad world. And we know it's a mad world when:
- Denmark issue at negative yield.
- Taking on the SNB is a near free option.
- Headlines appear 12yrs out of date - ECB SAYS NONE OF EIGHT EU COUNTRIES UNDER REVIEW MEET REQUIRED STANDARDS TO JOIN EURO CURRENCY UNION
- UK politics freeze up in apoplexy over a U-turn on a tax on hot pies.
- Robert Mugabe is appointed UN "Leader of Tourism"
Team Macro Man have given up and are wandering up the beach to the Pub.
So please - Calling all Eurostriches, rabbits in headlights, procrastinating bureaucrats hopelessly out of their depths, policy wonks who can't bend the current rules enough to fit, political leaders having to cope with something beyond local opinion polls, Germans hung up on outdated fears of hyperinflation, Frenchmen hung up on not being peripheral and peripherals who just don't realise the game is up .... JUST F'ING DO IT!
If it involves kicking Germany out with Greece; if it involves pawning the Sistine Chapel, Alhambra, and the Elgin Marbles (again); if it involves running the printing presses until they melt; if it means nationalising banks under a general Europe umbrella raather than a domestic one; even if it involves taking us back to the stone age - PLEASE JUST GET ON WITH IT! Some of us have lives to lead and watching the sandcastle of the Euro dissolve as the tide of reality comes in, is as predictable, sad and frustrating as watching the real thing at the end of a balmy day on the beach. Either kick it down, walk away or get the JCBs in to protect it with a 30ft coffer dam as some of us need to move on.
But still it drags on. Yet again today's headlines continue to be a passage of indecision, full of "nots" and "haven'ts" against "wills" and "doings" whilst the market is fast evolving into a "no news is bad news" mode and until we can get this elephant out of the room we can't focus on what else is going on in the real world. For now it's a mad world. And we know it's a mad world when:
- Denmark issue at negative yield.
- Taking on the SNB is a near free option.
- Headlines appear 12yrs out of date - ECB SAYS NONE OF EIGHT EU COUNTRIES UNDER REVIEW MEET REQUIRED STANDARDS TO JOIN EURO CURRENCY UNION
- UK politics freeze up in apoplexy over a U-turn on a tax on hot pies.
- Robert Mugabe is appointed UN "Leader of Tourism"
Team Macro Man have given up and are wandering up the beach to the Pub.
43 comments
Click here for commentsC says'
ReplyA comfortable couch,a refreshing glass of Perrier, the opportunity to deal with your angst awaits.Usually we can trace these times of stress back to the earliest days when mum would hide the potty to encourage one's development of fortitude and the ability to clench one's buuutockkk muscles until they screamed!
I feel a Kipling moment coming upon me ;
IF you can keep your wallet when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:
If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Greece and Spain
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
' Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!
Personally I didn't like this bit;
"If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;"
Smacks of no risk management !!
Oh C !
ReplyThat is worthy of a post of its own. Bravo! Bravo!
I have often used a shortened version in times of turmoil -
IF you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs ..... Go short Hats.
To understand the Eurostriche one must first understand the unelected, socialist, entitled bureaucrat.
ReplyThe hedge fund manager achieves wealth and status by doing things first and amassing more money than the next man.
The Eurostriche achieves same by subordinating all others to the point of poverty which makes their own protected state seem relatively wealthy by comparison.
In times of inflation, the Eurostriche on his protected pay scale, indexed allowances and defined benefits is a comfortable, yet relatively unhappy pleb as he watches the productive, asset rich and speculating sections of the populace get relatively richer.
In times of turmoil and particularly in terms of deflation, the Eurostriche could not be happier. His only real nagging fear is that the bond markets may eventually refuse to fund his largely ineffective pursuits, or the populace has no taxes left to give, but unless things go completely Athenian on him, this can be pushed to the back of his dull mind quite easily.
Don't confuse the Eurostriche with the Bernank though. The Bernank needs mates because his entitlements are, by comparison, relatively meagre and when he's finished doing his stuff, he would like to do something interesting and lucrative. The Eurostriche knows deep down that at the end of it all its taxi driving or pensioners dinners every night, so he's relaxed about the markets imploding.
I understand and share your frustration, but at the end of the day, it's just trader timeframes vs Eurotectonics; the two are simply incommensurate.
ReplySo, like C, I try to stay one remove from the noise, if only to protect my sanity.
I'm currently amusing myself by working on a Eurozone drama based on The Big Lebowski; Walter, with his penchant for rules and obsession with the war, is obviously Germany, the Dude is the Southern periphery, van Rompuy is Donny, the Bundesbank are the Nihilists, and the rug is the Euro...the rest is still rather sketchy, but I feel there's a rich seam to be mined here.
We are not quite at JFDI.
ReplyThis is the bit where one day soon Draghi comes out and says "I have a bazooka, which I borrowed from my old boss Hank Paulson, and I do know how to use it." Then there is a week or two of name-calling as the bears go "Oh yeah, well we don't believe you" and "Is that a bazooka down your pants or are you just pleased to see me?", or "You may have a bazooka but Mangler isn't going to let you pull it out in public", while momo traders push bund yields to unbelievable lows and peripheral yields tick up a bit further, until the phone calls about currency shortages and bank runs start in earnest and then Bernanke and the BoJ call to say "Look, we have been ready for ages, are we doing it yet? " Finally, after DB call to say we are about 24 hours away from being effing effed, Mangler finally tells Weidmann to call Draghi and say...
JFDI.
Bottom must be closing when TMM shows signs of capitulation.
ReplyOr perhaps you guys just need a vacation.
how negative can short German rates get?
Replyam I missing something or is this a free short?
I am going to be the asshole and raise the question: why is it that we need the politicos to JFDI and intervene for the umpteenth time if this is indeed a sustainable recovery and we have 'reached escape velocity' to use TMM's words? Can't have both, can we?
ReplyC says'
ReplyMainly we need them to JFDI because at the heart of this entire and sorry mess is not debt, but CONFIDENCE that the debt in which the currency is held will remain the same. Only the politicians have it within their power to put this turkey to bed.However, their continual inability to do this means upon every interation of the issue they leak that bit more of their credibility to do so which is why the effects of every attempt to patchup this problem appear to have shorter and shorter aftereffects.
Only overwhelming political committment can put this problem to bed just as it has been the lack of same which gave rise to it in the first place.
Thousands of years ago Christianity came into Europe and several hundred years ago a couple of chaps called Luther and Calvin took Christianity to a different place by breaking it up into Protty and Popish bites. Why did the faultlines for that breakup occur as they did effectively separating North and South Europe with Germany as the fulcrum? In effect imo it operated upon behavioural differences and the latter are the same we are still seeing today so little changes.
After attempting to kill each other they arrived at a European solution based upon an Edict of Tolerance and we need today A Financial Edict of Tolerance. Failing that then Europe will be drawn up along lines not dissimilar to The Treaty of Tordesillas recognising geographical/economic claims within Europe.
I suspect as LB says' when the stress grows great enough Mangler will tell Willyboy to call Draghi and say "do you have a pen.Good, these are the last 3 digits on the reverse of my debit card".
"these are the last 3 digits on the reverse of my debit card"
Replycredit card
666 ?
ReplyC from C is current on his Max Weber homework I see ... Impressive.
ReplyI have been on record in this very space saying as this is just our good old Doctor Faustus and we mere non Germans cannot possibly understand the full concept of schuld.
MANGLER Part II, Act I
Starveling. Away from me, ye odious crew!
Welcome, I know, I never am to you.
When hearth and home were women's zone,
As Avaritia I was known.
Then did our household thrive throughout,
For much came in and naught went out!
Zealous was I for chest and bin;
'Twas even said my zeal was sin.
But since in years most recent and depraving
Woman is wont no longer to be saving
And, like each tardy payer, collars
Far more desires than she has dollars,
The husband now has much to bore him;
Wherever he looks, debts loom before him.
Her spinning-money is turned over
To grace her body or her lover;
Better she feasts and drinks still more
With all her wretched lover-corps.
Gold charms me all the more for this:
Male's now my gender, I am Avarice!
Many large cash-rich European company shares are now trading at levels that suggest that investors believe the relevant currency (whether it is to be Euro/DM/French francs/peseta) will soon suffer the recent fate of the Icelandic kronur. Truth be told, only the New Drachma would be in that class.
ReplyThis is quite simply mad. Even IF the EU does indeed break up completely tomorrow, then the DM would rise relative to the USD/GBP/JPY/CHF, the FF would fall about 5-10% and the peseta by about 20-25%, and the drachma by maybe 75%. Looking at the relevant equities, prices have fallen far more than is warranted by any possible currency changes, perhaps, ahem, even in Greece.
In fact it's likely that there will be no Euro exits in the near future. The immediate problem is that the Buba and the German government are clinging to a bizarre and antiquated view of the Euro as some kind of modern day gold standard.
This too shall pass.....
The Zero Hour is upon us:
ReplySchatz Hits 0
<a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/22/1010711/oh-schatz-no-coupon/> Oh Schatz </a>
But, TMM, doesn't this mean that when the bazooka comes out the Schatz will hit the fan....?
Things are going to get worse before they get worse. I think we need Spanish 10Y near 7-8% handle before the pain barrier gets too large... getting there fast though. Interestingly it could be before the Greek elections.
ReplyBad US pending home sales number, few of these and Bennie B will start warming up the printing press again. Still holding out for the 1.5% level.
I like the EURCHF thinking even with Jordan talking about exchange controls...
This is the inevitable result of having a bunch of total knobs (ratings agencies) who put ratings on bonds, usually after the crisis has already become fulminant, despite not knowing their arse from their elbow, and then making up portfolio rules that govern real investing, based on their ratings.....
ReplyShortage of quality collateral has driven this move into bunds, USTs etc... now all the tools can do is downgrade those as well...... more absurdity...
So why not short German bonds? It is now the ultimate one-way trade....
Yeah 1.50% on the 10y has been a popular target. Not looking all that outlandish here.... the ECB could probably take a few days of Spain at 7% before finally tossing the life preservers out.
ReplyThey'd better get this crap cleaned up soon, surely before the footy starts, a week on Friday...?
I am NOT going to even try to short German bonds, even with the negative yields and all the nonsense. That market is rigged , it is not played by economically driven players. Return of capital rather than return on capital and all that.
ReplyAgreed on shorting German bunds for now, but that trade will be a beauty once it starts.
ReplyRight now, ANY coherent action with regard to the situation in Spain would be good.
For example, the Spanish government and ECB could agree to just guarantee all the Spanish bank deposits, and then take down Bankia and anything else among the cajas that is insolvent, and the bondholders and common shareholders could take the losses that result. The bank runs around Europe would cease and reverse and the remaining banks in the system would be stronger.
Ibex 35 market caps
ReplyITX - 43 bn
TEF - 41
SAN - 40
Surely a crime of fashion
News reports now stating the obvious - the market currently won't fund what Spain needs to refloat BFA-Bankia. The private debt placement paid for in shares of the insolvent bank and then passed through the ECB window - or direct ECB intervention - are the only available solutions.
ReplyOur next contestant is... Angela Merkel from Templin.
I just wonder who is long the schatz at these levels. you need collateral ok. But at what point does real money get out. surely at negative rates.
Replyoh and all the trend followers. I guess negative rates dont factor into their models.
I'm interested to see how this all plays out, as if there is a real EZ breakup panic I guess this thing would go a lot higher before people realize what is going on
The Germans clearly do not understand the mechanics of the balance sheet recession underway in Spain, and the intimate involvement of their very own beloved (yet highly leveraged) DB in this and other related debâcles. Otherwise the ECB would surely have cut interest rates long ago in this crisis.
ReplyGermans are totally locked into their own private Weltanschauung, in which they alone occupy the moral high ground, the better to lecture to their neighbors, the lazy French and the fawning Dutch, while the vast hordes of profligate Southern debtors are even now wasting their hard-earned Teutonic savings.
They are so myopic that they cannot see that by pushing austerity policies they are inviting the prospect of a huge set of bank failures on their very own doorstep - DB and the Landesbänken as creditors are up to their ears in PIIGShit.
What Germans can't seem to understand is that a program of bank recapitalization doesn't cause inflation in the midst of a deep balance sheet recession. Japan and the US provide very clear evidence to the contrary. It's the old analogy of pissing into a bucket that has a hole in it. It will never overflow until someone finally gets underneath and patches the hole.
C says
ReplyGood post LB.
Note the use of the word "moral" with it's quasi religious derivation that i was alluding to earlier.
Note also the use of stereotypical differences being used to classify how different 'tribes' have generic 'faults' in their makeup. So a Greek goatherder will not work as hard as a German welder etc etc.
Complete and utter tripe of course ,but when you cloth it in quasi religious financial dogma then you can kiss commonsense goodbye.
Unfortunately,right back last year I recall saying DO NOT underestimate the pigheaded fuckwit ability of Germans in failing to grasp the realities of what it will really take to resolve this European crisis. Centuries of inbred messages learned at mammas knee are hard to overturn although Pavlov and I may have an answer by introducing sunloungers at every Med watering hole that have an inbuilt ability to recognise and reject German bathing towels that appear before midday. Eventually these tulips will understand the virtue of a good lie-in and chillout.
Thank you all for the level of debate. Sorry not to be joining in. I ve been tutoring GCSE maths to offspring. God I hate matrices. Keep it up guys...
ReplyMore consistent than you think, since the Armchair Spanish Bank Analysts are just another example of the Igon Value Problem.
ReplyGermans are totally locked into their own private Weltanschauung, in which they alone occupy the moral high ground, the better to lecture to their neighbors...
Replyhmmm, but who doesn't do that? Ever read the NYTimes, Wall St journal, or the Jerusalem Post? Let's give the Germans some credit. At least they don't threaten to bomb their neighbors.
If someone doesn't like putting up with the pesky Tutonics, then they shouldn't put themselves in a situation where they need their help. Easy solution, no?
It's a good thing, C..that poem sits directly in front-centre of my workstation along this one(no shit!):
ReplyIn honor of the EU currency
THE seas are quiet when the winds give o'er
So calm are we when passions are no more
For then we know how vain it was to boast
Of fleeting things, so certain to be lost
Clouds of affection from our younger eyes
Conceal the emptiness which age decries
THE soul's dark cottage, batter'd and decay'd
Lets in new light through chinks that Time hath made
Stronger by weakness, wiser men become
As they draw near to their eternal home
Leaving the old, both worlds at once they view
That stand upon the threshold of the new
Ed Waller, Old AGE!
JFDI sounds like an acronym for a bank...
ReplyThe problem is not "confidence." The problem really is debt (insolvency) that people have (blindly drunk on the hooch of mispriced credit) ignored for many years.
ReplyC says
ReplyAnon 6.43
Your comment really is the Germanic stance completely and it resonates better IF you can find a pulpit from which to spout it.
Let me tell you what I have learned about problem resolution. First,the problem actually does not get solved whilst people are in blame mode raking over the who is responsible.Only when they are prepared to move past that and focus on taking the problem towards a solution and away from the blamegame does it get solved at all.
Let me put it to you in basic terms. Countries actually are not households and they do not HAVE to apply the same principles to the way they run their finances.Yes ,I know you think they do ,but they do not.
Countries can make choices that are not available to households because they hold both the reins of the debt that is issued in their names (currency) and the reins of the 'growth' that is required to service same.It is therefore always within their grasp to deflate the value of debts held and inflate the rate of 'growth' until the one is in equilibrium with the other. Because of this I know that debt is not actually the core problem ,it is the political will to make the appropriate choice. In this case specifically I refer to the The Edict of Financial Tolerance that is required from Northern European Puritans towards our Popish friends in the Southern states.Such political unity would be the signal for bond markets to retreat on agreed terms for debt management presumably over a considerably longer period than that currently envisaged ,and accordingly at also at lower rates of recompense perhaps floating ,no so that they do not gte lynched by inflated growth.
So please JBPBTFP (just please burn the fucking pulpit) the sanctimonious odour is getting to quite an appalling pitch now.
Negotiation, innit.
ReplyThe Stalwarts will pay the bill one way or another whether they like it or not - but for them to pay that bill in a manner most amenable to the Beach Boys (and World Peace) requires concessions, ie in return for the Stalwarts' Tolerance, the Beach Boys need to show willing to speak pidgin. Without that, the Tolerance is unsellable to the Stalwart masses. So, in that sense, the pulpit is as much about that sales job than about lecturing the wayward.
C says'
ReplyAnon,
It is and always has been a possibility that at least some of the german stance has been about salesmanship.That is,it is to bring their voting pop to the place where they can be sold on a given solution.
The main problem i have with that is Mangler must truly be an amazing actress if her reactions to date are simply shall we call it 'showmanship'? Moreover, in the name of selling a solution to the German public if that is all this is I again would have to question whether they have lost sight of the end goal,or at the least misjudged what is required to achieve that goal.I am assuming the goal is to keep a Eurozone currency with it's major economic constituents.Personally taking salesmanship to what appears to have all the elements of a 'country run' is not just misguided brinkmanship.
If we see exchange controls coming in over the next couple of weeks then they will have lost in terms of achieving the goal expressed. I accept their goal may be somethingelse entirely,but if it is I dare say the rest of us would wish they might have saved us all a lot time and trouble and made that clearer much earlier.
Part 2:
Reply"In this case specifically I refer to the The Edict of Financial Tolerance that is required from Northern European Puritans towards our Popish friends in the Southern states.Such political unity would be the signal for bond markets to retreat on agreed terms for debt management presumably over a considerably longer period than that currently envisaged ,and accordingly at also at lower rates of recompense perhaps floating ,no so that they do not gte lynched by inflated growth."
The "Southern states" as you refer to them do not want to cede budgetary control (I don't blame them). Germans don't want to take on additional liabilities without budgetary control (I don't blame them).
Perhaps they could negotiate an agreement over a number of years (if I recall, it took eleven years from the Declaration of Independence to write the United States Constitution), but that amount of time seems like an unavailable luxury at the moment.
It seems simplistic to believe that some declaration of political unity will solve of of this (or even a significant portion of it). It may simply pull other countries into the maelstrom. Even Germany (with its so-called AAA rating) is hardly a paragon of fiscal virtue:
http://images.johnmauldin.com/uploads/charts/050512-05.jpg
Claiming that the problem is only "confidence" denies the significant and obvious structural issues.
"So please JBPBTFP (just please burn the fucking pulpit) the sanctimonious odour is getting to quite an appalling pitch now."
Again, please watch your language. It is completely unnecessary.
Some additional comments (back to debt again). Much of the "economic growth" over the past decade (or even longer) simply wasn't real - it was an artifact of the credit bubble, and needs to be unwound. I hope you don't advocate attempting to reinflate the credit bubble (solving the problem of to much debt with more debt). I liken it to an athlete on steriods - the performance just isn't there (at least in a sustainable manner).
I have read (ridiculous) analyses that complain that the growth of debt to GDP is "above trendline." WHat the you know what? It can't grow continuously at ANY rate over the long term. It has to flatline (or ideally decline).
I don't claim to have a good solution (ok, there ARE no GOOD solutions), but I am all for writing down the debt of insolvent banks and peripheral countries. Pretending that certain banks countries are still solvent is destroying confidence, and politicians are too worried about a loss of face. It is not clear to me that "keep the eurozone together at all costs, even if it destroys growth for the next twenty years" is the correct policy.
I am also skeptical of policies with a goal of inducing inflation. They produce unintended consequences (for one thing, inflation particularly hurts the poorest in society), but I guess if your goal is to transfer wealth to the rich and powerful, inflation is a great thing (although it often does not end well).
One thing I can confidently say (and I hope you will agree with this), is that there will be financial repression for a long time to pay for the sins of the past (again, too much debt), and large fights among the various stakeholders (bondholders, taxpayers, and benefit recipients) on how to allocate the pain.
I am the Anonymous at 6:43.
ReplyPart 1 keeps "disappearing" after I post it (I am guessing because of the URL). I will try leaving out the first part.
Sorry this is out of order.
I would request that you keep the tone of your replies on a higher level. Now, let's go over your points.
"Your comment really is the Germanic stance completely and it resonates better IF you can find a pulpit from which to spout it."
Not at all (at least in terms of solutions). I believe that the debt must be reduced (in particular, of the peripheral countries). I am NOT in agreement with the current "austerity inside of the monetary union policies" (it seems you have erroneously assumed that I am).
"Let me tell you what I have learned about problem resolution. First,the problem actually does not get solved whilst people are in blame mode raking over the who is responsible."
I am not in blame mode. The blame is everywhere from those who set up the monetary union, to "homeowners" who borrowed to much, to overleveraged banks, to government officials (not just in the periphery).
"Only when they are prepared to move past that and focus on taking the problem towards a solution and away from the blamegame does it get solved at all."
No one has moved in that direction.
"Let me put it to you in basic terms. Countries actually are not households and they do not HAVE to apply the same principles to the way they run their finances."
In a monetary union (especially the smaller countries who have little influence), yes they do to a degree. They can't set interest rate policy or currency policy.
"Yes ,I know you think they do ,but they do not.
Countries can make choices that are not available to households because they hold both the reins of the debt that is issued in their names (currency) and the reins of the 'growth' that is required to service same."
Now it sounds like you (regarding growth) would favor reforms that would limit the stifling bureaucracies, excessive regulation, and rigid labor codes that inhibit growth. I am all for that, but it is not getting done, due to resistance of the masses.
"It is therefore always within their grasp to deflate the value of debts held and inflate the rate of 'growth' until the one is in equilibrium with the other."
Individual countries within the monetary union can not do that.
"Because of this I know that debt is not actually the core problem ,it is the political will to make the appropriate choice."
There is "THE" appropriate choice? Call me skeptical, since there are a number of interrelated problems here (which seems to need more than one solution) - not the least of which is that different countries in the EMU need different monetary policies. It it NOT an optimal currency area:
www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/05/the-funniest-graph-ive-ever-seen-about-why-the-euro-is-totally-doomed/256793/
Debt is the problem (not the only problem, but certainly one of the biggest ones). European banks are basically insolvent. Period. Why are they insolvent. More debt that assets.
Debt has limited the flexibility of fiscal policy for a number of governments in the monetary union.
High consumer debt has restricted spending in some (but not all) countries.
Excessive debt has basically made the whole system unstable.
Hi last anon.. your lost msgs are piling up in the spam folder.. god knows why.. i could release them all but may cause chaos above.. all up to date? Or what would you like me to do?
ReplyC says'
Reply"Again, please watch your language. It is completely unnecessary."
On that son I have tuned you out.
You are talking to someone with a Masters in Linguistics. I use language specifically to communicate at various levels ,but you my friend perch on a plane that is immune to communication.
Cheerio
ARRRRRGH! I specifically saw the last post show up on message page (but now it has disappeared again). :(
ReplyThanks for letting me know what happened Polemic. I have heard that Blogger randomly won't let people post URLs, so I would GUESS that that is the problem. Blogger certainly didn't tell me anything during my attempts to post. The messages were there on the "post a comment" page immediately after my posts, and then they weren't there when I reloaded the page.
If you could release just the FIRST one (they were basically all duplicates anyway), and send the others to the bitbucket, I would appreciate it (and it seems like the best outcome).
C your Masters in Linguistics in an interesting achievement (and not so unrelated to the financial markets as it would superficially appear). However, I still don't believe that profanity (directed at another reader) belongs on the comment page.
People will certainly disagree on things (necessary for markets to even exist) here, and will have (large) financial interests depending on the correctness of their views,
That still doesn't justify attacking another member, especially for a one sentence (and admittedly oversimplistic statement).
I would ask you to employ more humor (perhaps a bit of snarkiness, which I can enjoy, even when directed at myself) in the future.
Thank you for your attention, and Cheerio to you to. :)
C says'
ReplyI don't want to get into anything with you,trust me it would be pointless.Our communication might as well be between people from two different planets. I say this because I have analysed your posts and specifically your choice of words etc.I have an informed idea of your some of your conceptual views and the belief system that I can expect to underpin them probaby well beyond what you think you have said in terms of yourself.
All of this tells me the product of a discussion with you would be not worthy of the time either of us would put in.Hence ,my earlier curtailment of same.
None of this is meant to be critical of you. You are neither better mor worse than I ,merely different.
Clearly you believe you were the subject of a verbal attack and so forth. That was not the intent ,but I cannot control how you perceive my choice of language.
Nonetheless,we are civilised people here ,not anti social animals so please accept my apology if you were hurt in anyway by my remarks ,as I say that was never the intent.
As we appear to be in the business of offerring free advice along the lines;
"Again, please watch your language. It is completely unnecessary" ;
"I would ask you to employ more humor (perhaps a bit of snarkiness, which I can enjoy, even when directed at myself) in the future."
Let me offer some of my own and it is wellmeaning. Communication is not about you per se ,but if you internalise it as though it is and proceed to offer adice in order to shape future communication to your own accepted preferences then you implicitly limit your ability to truly understand other people.This is how miscommunication often ocurs because of entrenched belief systems and decoding errors that arise from them. The message sent is not the message that arrives etc.
By the way Angela the Manglela should take note of this, it is a frequent error that keeps cropping up as she stumbles along playing her part in this sorry mess.
On that note cheerio and have a good weekend,mine starts now.
Hi Polemic,
ReplyAny chance of releasing one of those messages? :) I did spend a fair amount of time composing it, and when it showed up on the page (temporarily), I (foolishly in hindsight) did not think I needed to save a local copy.
Thank you C. Apology accepted. I did perceive "So please JBPBTFP (just please burn the fucking pulpit) the sanctimonious odour is getting to quite an appalling pitch now" as an attack, and must concede that I am likely to do so again in the future.
"All of this tells me the product of a discussion with you would be not worthy of the time either of us would put in."
No problem with that at all, and advice about communication noted. I often tend to communicate tersely (a bad habit of mine), which often (even with someone as perceptive as yourself) leads to miscommunications.
On the point of European leaders, obviously I don't envy their problems, but the handicap of having to work (via translators, of course) in multiple languages seems to ratchet up the difficulty of the whole process. Let us both hope for some wisdom (and good communications) on their part.
anon 6.43 et al .. Even you request for release went to spam ! Have you got some dodgy address or IP? !! anyway all released and it seems to have gone into time order . so is somewhere above ..
Replyhopefully you and C have pretty much made up now !
"Even you request for release went to spam !"
Reply:(
"Have you got some dodgy address or IP? !!"
I don't believe so. It is semi-permanent (dhcp that keeps renewing to the same address), and the internet provider is one of the biggest in the country here in the far abroad (south pacific region).
Perhaps the Google algorithm believes that once one has posted "spam," future offerings from the same address are also spam. :(
"anyway all released and it seems to have gone into time order . so is somewhere above .."
Thank you for that. It is now recorded for posterity, despite what limited value it may have. :)
"hopefully you and C have pretty much made up now !"
I am fine. I think everyone (including myself) needs to realize that different people have different beliefs about what will work best, and actually (sort of like political parties) want to convince other people that their view is the best one (even those of us who have zero power as far as affecting the implementation of any plan).
If I may post another link (which will probably send this into the spam box - please unblock), this sums up the way I see things, too:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100017599/germany-greece-and-the-scottish-problem/
The politicians have a different "miracle solution" every week, but I (apparently like Germany) believe that while peripheral relief is needed, solutions must address the CAUSES of the problems, not simply provide symptomatic relief.
I saw today that Spain is looking to find money to recapitalize their banking system "without any conditions" (good luck with that). Is it any wonder potential creditors won't go along? Keeping zombie banks alive is a strategy that the Japanese attempted for many years, ultimately without success.
It Could Also stand for " Just F***ing Dump It"
Reply