If TMM ran Europe

Thursday, May 31, 2012

There is a Carlsberg advertising theme that has been running for years that is on the lines of  "If Carlsberg did xyz" followed by some Utopian version of xyz. We don't know if it's our desire for a cool lager or the mess in Europe that has triggered us to do our own version, but here it is.

If TMM ran Europe

- London would be where Cannes is.
- The European Parliament would be in Athens.
- Current political leadership of Eurostriches would be freed onto the African plains.
- New political reps would have votes allocated on issues dynamically by "Likes"or "Followers".
- Switzerland would be included and stop pretending.
- UK would leave the EU and join NAFTA.
- The ECB would be in Bangalore.
- Policy makers would sit on trap-doors over shark tanks on 1 min time triggers only over-ridden by them making a decision.
- "Ocean Finance" would consult Spain.
- The Bundesbank would be a water park.
- Greece would discover oil (but only enough to pay their debts).
- Mediterranean resorts would be pegged to beer prices.
- Health and safety would be left to Darwinian selection.
- Pan-European mobile phone calls would be at "local" prices.
- OCD suffers would be moved to Naples.
- Fruit would be misshapen.
- Human rights wouldn't contradict common sense.
- Coffee prices would be capped at E1.50 a cup but at 50cents in Paris, Switzerland and Venice.
- Eurovision song contest votes would be weighted by debt/gdp.
- Lying about your finances would be a capital offense.
- Day-Glo liqueurs would taste as good at home as they did at 1am on holiday.
- Pedestrians and cyclists would be as punishable as car drivers for accidents.
- Pension schemes, casinos and "Dignitas" would be run as one.
- Germany would be made to play Santa at Xmas.

Posted by Polemic at 12:35 PM  


Telefonica plans to IPO its Germany and Latin American units in an effort to raise cash. Yielding 17.3% currently.

Anonymous said...
2:06 PM  

Some young man has just trolled the site, TMM. Naughty naughty.

Now then, the latest econ data from NY. The MIGHTY US JOBS MACHINE is creating an enormous number of ..... oh for goodness sake, when will everyone just quit pretending? Tomorrow could easily be as low as +75k or worse.

Talking heads still spouting 2.5-3% growth but the US is probably sputtering at about 1.0-1.5% in Q2, if that, so all this US decoupling bollocks is WAY past its sell by date and maybe, just maybe, the dollar rally is a bit overplayed?

Looking across the pond at Yoorp we see that Italian and Spanish yields are once again soaring into the stratosphere.... oh wait, they aren't....! Sometimes the only catalyst you need for a recovery is no catalyst at all. The longer nothing happens, the fewer bits of sky will be falling on the tin foil hat brigade.

TWINE. The World Is Not Ending.

Leftback said...
2:11 PM  

Didn't realize pumping TEF was trolling? Methinks I'm not the first...

Anonymous said...
2:22 PM  

No probs with TEF comments, but if you could hold them all for tomorrow please as TEF is up there as one of our interests too and we are doing a big post tomorrow on it.. if we finish it in time.

Polemic said...
2:36 PM  

For shoe gazers' I hear that fleets of illuminated giant blimps are to be paraded across the skies, night and day, emblazoned with "*** GROWTH SLOWING, AT BEST ***" in 500ft high iridescent flashing letters...

nb. Having a "bump" with a ped or mamil doesn't smart half as much as a bump with another chariot. Easy now on those without a tin shell...

Anonymous said...
2:38 PM  

Anon @ 2:22, no no, there was a real troll, it's gone now, the MM police swooped and erased it.

Interesting comments on TEF, thanks. LB is quite pleased, as when we had donned the Kevlar gloves we fully expected a divi reduction to give us a 8-9% yield which we would have been well happy wiv, guv.

btw, LB's little bruv is a Eurocrat and currently in Athens for a Euroconf, when asked about the prevailing mood of Austerity he just laughed from his 5 star hotel....

Leftback said...
2:48 PM  

C says'
Look I really am sorry TMM,your ditty has not landed today.For some reason I can't stop humming the songs from Les Miserables !

I was scannning the FT when all of sudden it came into my head ;
first, prologue work song of the chain gang, followed by ,The confrontation leading straight into ;The Robbery with an encore of ;Do you hear the people sing !
Concluding with a compilation crescendo of; The dawn of Agony/Dog eats Dog/Empty chairs at Empty Tables and Beggars at the Feast .

I don't why this just burst into my head..

I know the yield curve inversion is a source of concern beign a rarity ,but surely even more rare is an inversion of the foodchain.

Anonymous said...
3:15 PM  

You forgot one :

Can walk onto Ascot Racecourse and have a punt in peace

Amplitudeinthehouse said...
4:21 PM  

i'm interested to hear what TMM has to say on TEF. The downgrade and spanish concerns really seem to have the CDS's moving (more so that in April when it was one of the reasons I wanted to sorta step in)

But valuation is pretty good. I bought some for my mom!

abee crombie said...
5:17 PM  

C says'
Well don't look now ,but UK couple of shortees are going to get it right where it hurts starting with the next session.The volume tells all and this is one of those which is rarely wrong which is why I've gone in on the close.Combine the vol with the price reaction on what has been almost universally bad news and i'm ready to do the Kipling risk management technique !

Anonymous said...
5:53 PM  

US v World performance at best level since 2004.

US v R o W Performance

We suggest that this will soon revert, and that US will be an under-performer the rest of the year. Why? Well, basically, US growth is turgid, and their "bazookas" will have to be much bigger "over there" in "Old Europe", on a relative basis, as economic disaster is averted in the nick of time "across the Pond", even though we will continue to hear that Europeans are "lazy", "don't even speak the same language" and the place is run by "socialists".

Leftback said...
6:37 PM  

Assuming you are a tiny retail fish (I am one) there are some very good R:R options spreads to be had with TEF at the moment. Almost too good to be true. I've placed an order or two in the lottery ticket account.

Marshall Jung said...
6:39 PM  

I do have a few lottery tickets on board now that Schatz = 0 and US 10y hit 1.54. Indeed, US managers seem to think the continued existence of the entire continent of Europe is now quite unlikely!

The problem with options is always the time frame. Someone sells those things, after all, and a lot of them expire worthless. Think about the timing of the Greek elections relative to options expiration and you'll see what I mean. Besides, I'll be watching the footy like everyone else...

Well, I am off, we will have more totally naf US jobs data to offer you tomorrow before we play another round of ECB/IMF weekend roulette.

Leftback said...
6:59 PM  

LB - Given that I am partial to options spreads I sell at least as many as I buy and I try and keep the theta on my side of the table. It's not a million to one return, but the risk is low and defined. For TEF I went out till Sept to allow things to resolve. No grantees in the business but the Sept 12.5/15 put or call vertical is a 7:1 R:R if TEF is above 15 by opex in September. Chart wise I can see that happening.

Marshall Jung said...
11:47 PM  

My last take on this week is a positive one.It shouldn't escape us that the consequences of market stresses are not all negative by any means from a basic economic viewpoint. Oil and the CRB falling as rapidly as they have done will assist hard pressed consumers depenidng of course upon where they are and therefore the ability of such easing to be passed through to them.
Likewise if a strong Euro was the last thing that peripherals need to restore some competitiveness then at this juncture they are btter off now than they were a few weeks ago in terms of that issue.

Finally, big clap to LB ,I think his take on reversion in performance is a good pointer for where we should be looking and I look forward to reading the TEF material if it is posted over this weekend.

Anonymous said...
9:02 AM  

Amplitudeinthehouse is just going to lay back in front of the workstation today in wait of the NFP, his P\L won't be on the edge of its seat if the DOW puts in a revert to the trend, as he shorted US-Equites in a spot that was against his technical SOP due to the yennish environment....you don't get many chances hey!

Becareful out guys.....

Amplitudeinthehouse said...
9:46 AM  

Might I petition to have 'Kipling risk management' added to the formal Glosary of TMMisms?

Tom said...
10:54 AM  

Tom ,
Are you up for writing the definition ?

Polemic said...
11:42 AM  

Here goes...

Kipling school of risk management: "If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose" Also known as cetacean VAR controls. For further assistence contact LCTM.

Too long?

Currently working to incorporate quantative Kipling into my new Short Term Capital Management: Low grade structured credit enhanced leverage fund.

Tom said...
3:18 PM  

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