Greek Exit. What do YOU think?

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

In TMM's eyes today is crucial as to whether the European markets nose dive in flames or skim the treetops and head back into clear air (for at least another week). The general feeling around us is that the best that a possible outcome could be is a  "Capt C Sullenberger" miraculous yet painless ditch. Few seem to think that clear blue skies are possible again. With little new news apart form the European data today it still all seems to rest on opinions of Greece's existence in the EZ. With opinion rife we thought it would be interesting to see if we could pin down some structure to what our readership think towards when/if Greece will exit and how they perceive the expectations of the rest of the market. More interestingly, we hope to see if we can pick up some biases against backgrounds.

1) When do YOU expect it to be announced that Greece is to leave the Euro (either by Greece or the EU).

a) In May
b) June - July
c) Aug - Dec
d) 2013
e) So far forward it's irrelevant to today's markets.

2) When do you think THE MARKET expect it will be announced that Greece is to leave the Euro (either by Greece or the EU).

a) In May
b) June - July
c) Aug - Dec
d) 2013
e) So far forward it's irrelevant to today's markets.

3) Are you

a) "Buy Side" - invest other peoples money  
b) "Sell side" - including bank traders + sales
c) Analyst/advisor without own positions.
d) A professional private investor.
e) Have a non-financial day job.  
f) In the media.
g) A European policy maker
h) A Greek politician

Hopefully the results will be interesting to all, the more respondents the better  so please feel free to circulate.

PS. If anyone can mail us the html code for adding cunning vote buttons that will show votes 1 and 2 by answer 3 then it would be very gratefully received!  

Posted by Polemic at 12:12 PM  



Duncan said...
12:45 PM  


Anonymous said...
12:55 PM  


Anonymous said...
12:56 PM  

e b b

Anonymous said...
1:01 PM  


Anonymous said...
1:09 PM  


Anonymous said...
1:10 PM  


Anonymous said...
1:14 PM  


Anonymous said...
1:15 PM  


Anonymous said...
1:16 PM  

C, B, A

Anonymous said...
1:25 PM  


i.e. it's further off than the markets think.

Hotairmail said...
1:28 PM  

c c b

Yo said...
1:28 PM  

e d d

Anonymous said...
1:29 PM  

C b b

Anonymous said...
1:29 PM  

e d d

Anonymous said...
1:29 PM  

c, b, e

Anonymous said...
1:32 PM  

e, b, b

Unknown said...
1:35 PM  

Easy way to do polls by the way -

Unknown said...
1:37 PM  

d, c, c

Anonymous said...
1:55 PM  

E, C, A

Anonymous said...
2:37 PM  

A) 13

B) 13

C) Small (live) FX account trader, though, account proportional to living environment = every trade is balls to the walls!

Amplitudeinthehouse said...
2:42 PM  

c,b and c

Anonymous said...
2:46 PM  

Think it's important to define what "leave the Euro" actually means. If it means a return of the drachma, mass confiscation of deposits, forced conversion of Euro holdings, forget it, no Greek will vote for that. If "leaving the euro" means Greeks continuing to use the Euro as a functional currency but the Greek CB losing their equity in the ECB along with the access to cheap funding that goes with it, that's way more likely.


Anonymous said...
2:52 PM  


Anonymous said...
3:00 PM  


equities perpetually forward looking versus credit...and the action in the post psi / swap greek 10s is as close to 'death' as possible...

but extend and pretend is the only scenario that is palatable for any sides of the argument

chas said...
3:15 PM  


Anonymous said...
3:23 PM  

c, b, d

Anonymous said...
3:30 PM  


Anonymous said...
3:58 PM  

d, b, e

Extend and Pretend. Kick the Can.

Anonymous said...
4:17 PM  

d, b, d

Unknown said...
4:27 PM  


Anonymous said...
4:35 PM  

You're missing an option for number 2. Choice f) could be either "soon" or a fixed interval that never gets reduced by the passage of time. Think those roadside exhortations to repent littering the countryside in certain parts of the world.

e f e (very tactfully worded, this one)

Charles Butler said...
4:37 PM  

d, b, h

abee crombie said...
5:00 PM  


dismale said...
5:03 PM  

F it wil not happen
F the market does not think it feels

i Zeus greek god

Anonymous said...
5:16 PM  


Cheesehedge said...
5:51 PM  


Anonymous said...
5:56 PM  

b, b, d

pimaCanyon said...
6:49 PM  

btw gdx taken out to the woodshed now. hmm when it trouble double?

abee crombie said...
6:55 PM  

e c c

Anonymous said...
7:03 PM  


Anonymous said...
7:10 PM  

d, d, d,

I honest think its ridiculous that the market is obsessed with Greece. Who cares. The nation's economy is the size of rhode island... its irrelevant. If the French banks have to eat it let them eat it. Move on to other issues like the US fiscal cliff in 2013 for instance which is a real risk. I'm bullish risk assets right at this stage but think Greece is a non-event.

Anonymous said...
7:15 PM  

d (although really between d & e, 2014-5?)

Anonymous said...
7:17 PM  


Anonymous said...
8:30 PM  


Anonymous said...
8:49 PM  


MoreLiver said...
10:07 PM  

Looks like I am among the few pessimists here. I say b,b (and d) - basically right after the next election.

To the anonymous at 1915. No, the market doesn't care about Greece (per se). But it does care about contagion (and those French banks, which are basically insolvent even without another Greek default).

When Greece leaves the eurozone, it will establish a precedent (that the politicians and bureaucrats are quite afraid of), and if Greece begins to recover fairly rapidly, it will increase the incentives for other countries to leave.

One more thing. Forget DeMark. Hussman says that the present time is in the worst one-half of one percent of times to be long stocks. Staying short at least until there is a policy response.

Anonymous said...
10:23 PM  

b, b, e

10:25 PM  

b, d, a

BRM said...
10:28 PM  

b c b

L. said...
11:24 PM  
This comment has been removed by the author.
dg said...
11:41 PM  


Anonymous said...
11:42 PM  

I can produce a graph on this.

MoreLiver said...
11:58 PM  

# of comments.

Highest lately?

Anonymous said...
12:29 AM  


Anonymous said...
1:01 AM  

e, e, e

Romandière said...
4:35 AM  

Judging by the price action yesterday and again in Asia overnight I think the market has suggested you may have missed out the letters ;y,o,u,r,s.

Anonymous said...
6:47 AM  


The Greeks will default, but it makes no sense unless they have a primary surplus.

Defaulting with a deficit means that the govt has to make immediate and far deeper cuts to the budget. Far better to give it a year.

Plus with the Germans able to manipulate their currency through the inclusion of Greece I wouldn't be surprised if they offer to be more accomodative w.r.t the austerity package

Redrut said...
9:47 AM  


ThoseWhoSpeak said...
9:53 AM  


low confidence


Anonymous said...
10:56 AM  

C says'
The knife that was TEF and BBVA have proven the old adage that what is cheap can always get cheaper.

Anonymous said...
10:58 AM  

E, B, C
ie never, but mkt thinks this summer, and i'm a sell side analyst / strategist (ie i know nothing but talk everything)

Surveymonkey maybe can do voting things for you - I've used occasionally.

PS - Greece up on the day today!

Anonymous said...
11:05 AM  

e, b, a. Draghi is increasing the heat on merkel to make decisions. About time

santiago said...
11:27 AM  

C says'
Considering Europe in Pavlovian terms which afterall is behavioural conditioning. Have we noticed that upon each iteration of our 'can kicking' experiment our subject has displayed a more and more transient response.In other words each time a 'bone' as been thrown the desired effect from our 'dog/market' has beocme shorter and shorter. The conclusion from such an observation is that the test subject is becoming increasingly unresponsive to the stimulus provided.
Now clearly we are going to be bombarded by noise such as "Draghi" this and "Merkel/Hollande" that. Personally I would take great care in how I responded to that "stimulus" because it appears that getting Rovers attention meaningfully is becoming harder to do.

Anonymous said...
11:42 AM  


Dave Hall said...
12:07 PM  

c b b

Anonymous said...
12:12 PM  


Stephen said...
12:57 PM  


maximm said...
1:03 PM  


Anonymous said...
1:31 PM  

So "everyone" seems to think an exit will occur much later than the market believes, or even not at all.

Thus, despite generally defensive positioning, it would seem few are positioned for the opposite scenario: that of Greece exiting before the market believes, ie. imminently - the mechanism being an acceleration of the present bank run bumping up against Emergency Liquidity Assistance collateral and/or Target2 limits.

Anonymous said...
2:00 PM  


Dependant on numerous variables of course, namely the outcome of a second round of voting.

Tom said...
3:00 PM  

c, b, b

Anonymous said...
2:34 PM  

Post a Comment