Thursday, November 03, 2011
Team Macro Man have decided that these markets are a bit like a Photoshop project. We don't know if you have ever got sucked into using Photoshop when trying to simply touch up some basic picture, but it doesn't take long before you find it isn't quite as easy as you thought, with each little addition appearing as a "layer". You soon end up cursing the system for making it so complicated. But this layer system is exactly what we see the markets as right now. We have the nice economics layer that looks relatively serene, picture perhaps an overcast day, but overlayed on that is this Jackson Pollock layer labelled "politics". The markets are constantly playing with the "transparency" function fading from one to the other. But its all happening so fast. Today is a true "roro" market, but it now stands for "referendum on, referendum off" with conflicting headlines having a frequency only audible to dogs and bats. So unless you are spivtastic headline trading there is little point in trying to play.
TMM note that the problem with due political process as generally understood is that it takes time, something Greece, european bank maturities and deposit flight do not have much of. So, in an effort to get a quick indication of Greek voters' will for staying the the Euro TMM propose they set up a page on a social networking site, invite all the population to join as "friends", and then post 2 status. One being "The Euro and Deflation", which you can 'like', and the other being "Lose your savings, return to your village to press olives and revert to only charging the equivilent of a fiver for a meal in your taverna", which you could also chose to 'like'. TMM reckon we could have a result by close of today.
We are off to lunch, but leave you with a live feed from the Greek Parliament