Monday, November 07, 2011

Damp Squib

This weekend was "Fireworks day" in the UK and TMM attended their own share of both public and private displays of pyrotechnics. Unfortunately the display that they were most looking forward to was the European one which ended up going off with a pphut.

What should have happened - Greece restructured a cohesive government in Greece either with or without Papa.
What actually happened -  Still a mess but they might found someone else called Papa to lead it.

What should have happened - G20 should have come out with positive statements and an action plan.
What actually happened -  - They have no new ideas.

What should have happened - Italy should have released a roadmap of the path to austerity
What actually happened -  Its becoming clear that the Letch has to go, but there is no obvious alternative.

What should have happened - ECB should have put a firm bid under BTPs as today is obviously going to be Judgement day over their resolve.
What actually happened -  Flaccid bids that leave the market with the impression that they aren't up to the fight.

What should have happened - the BRIC countries should have pledged X amount to EFSF ,
What actually happened -  They hummed and ahh'd citing lack of Euro leadership being a problem. Well they may be rich but they aren't stupid after all.

What should have happened - THe Sarko/ Merkel show should have flag waved a new unity.
What actually happened -  Merkel appears to be washing her hands saying it could take a decade to sort out. Oh, if only they had a decade.

What should have happened - With all of the above then the plug should just have been pulled on the Greek life support system,
What actually happened -  The conditions of EU bailout got even weaker. They started as being conditional upon a plan for a balanced budget, then just a budget, and now, "hey, tell you what, we'll give it to you if you promise just to have a government. Can you manage that"?. Next will be "OK, you get it if your country begins with a G...... what do you mean it starts with an H ????"

What a damp squib. TMM think the ECB should take a leaf out of the small Scottish town of Oban's firework manual, and let all their fireworks off at once.

So TMM have emerged from their bunker post G20 and are somewhat surprised to see little changed. Reading the news and getting "IB Chat Italy meltdown" first thing we really expected prices to be a LOT lower. Yes BTPs are being toasted and yes the LCH 450 margin trigger isn't far away but it's all known and feels as though its is being gunned for. TMM have been playing their "Sell on Friday and go away, don't buy back 'til next Tuesday" rule but today are going to pre-empt it and buy London noon. Considering the panic first thing this morning everything has held up pretty well. If this really is going to turn into a 10 year problem do we really expect the market to stay that focused for that long?  No Way. TMM are going spiv and buying early. TMM are thinking that the markets are getting weary and are more likely to have a slow grind up 'til Christmazzzzzzzzzz ...

6 comments:

Tradebot said...

to quote Madonna : Papa don't preach, I am in trouble deep.

Not so sure to add risk with BTPs becoming the "news". If there is a too big to fail, that has to be Italy.

Very surprised to see the EURUSD still at 1.37/38 handle.

Anonymous said...

I realise you may not wish to share but could you give us a little idea of the annualised return on your Buy on Friday sell on Tuesday strategy YTD?

abee crombie said...

you would think this market should be trading lower off the BTPs.

seem the bears are taking a break and bulls are confident we made a major swing low

maybe we even get the famous HF EURUSD Dec seasonality grind up as well

Nic said...

Nice buy TMM

Leftback said...

Markets are weary but they can respond by selling as easily as buying.

Beware the BTPs displacing GGBs in the crosshairs as 10y looks up at 7%.

I'll just stay here in the trench, lads, and brew a nice cuppa Rosie. Jerry tends to shoot first and ask questions later on the Maginot Line.

Corey said...

Sorry to hear about your squib. May your bids always be firm and your Sqiuds...well I prefer mine fried.