Tuesday, March 09, 2010
It's been a bit of an indifferent start to the week- yesterday's US equity volume was the lowest of the year- and Macro Man is frankly struggling for inspiration. What better time, then, to play another game of 20 Questions?
1) Per yesterday's post, will the US Treasury cite China as a currency manipulator next month?
2) When will the Chinese finally adjust the FX regime (defined as allowing USD/RMB to trade below 6.80 or above 6.85)?
3) What, if any, monetary policy changes will the Fed make this year?
4) Will the FOMC ever be fully staffed again?
5) Who's the first to hike policy rates: Fed, ECB, or BOE?
6) What trades first in cable: 1.30 or 1.70?
7) Man United has won the league three times in a row, been to two straight Champions' League finals, and this year retained a cup trophy for the first time in their long history. What, exactly, are all the fans and the Red Knights bitching about?
8) Have we seen the peak in US 2's- 10's?
9) Are we in for another 2-3 years of slowly eroding house prices in the US and non-London UK?
10) What odds on more QE from the BOE this year?
11) Which trades first in the SPX: 1050 or 1200?
12) Who's going to win the NCAA tournament?
13) Have we seen the last of the snow for this year (fingers crossed)?
14) Is Macro Man going to be wrong about both of his political non-predictions this year (no hung Parliament, no loss of either house by the Democrats)?
15) Has the consensus abandoned the double-dip/W-shaped economic profile in the G4 economies?
16) Do all Americans of "Generation X" vintage and younger regard their Social Security statements with as much scepticism as Macro Man?
17) Will the ECB (and, presumably, others) really start performing their own sovereign ratings, thereby reducing the significance of the ratings agencies?
18) How can anyone be enthused at buying the short end in the US/UK/EMU at these levels?
19) Will the UK get downgraded by the end of next year?
20) When will oil break out of this $65 - $85 range?