tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post9165408908438675470..comments2024-03-29T12:26:35.581+00:00Comments on Macro Man: 20 QuestionsMacro Manhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comBlogger22125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-82033380894240457062010-03-10T08:07:46.417+00:002010-03-10T08:07:46.417+00:00Depends on the corporate - SOEs with mostly domest...Depends on the corporate - SOEs with mostly domestic sales and poor capital management etc are long cash, exporters and private businesses less so. Basically, the smarter guys are long offshore cash including some of the less smart (PetroChina, CNOOC, etc).Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-70927077409310826542010-03-10T07:32:53.514+00:002010-03-10T07:32:53.514+00:00Nemo, I thought that Chinese Corporate were more l...Nemo, I thought that Chinese Corporate were more likely to be short cash than long cash (to buy these - ahem - "core investments" in developable land and backyards full of copper). Am I wrong on this ? Chinese corporates are already like Japanese Corporates ?Charleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15664983104693516908noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-31996044663088981412010-03-10T02:36:07.673+00:002010-03-10T02:36:07.673+00:00LB, they wouldn't be raising rates if they wer...LB, they wouldn't be raising rates if they weren't also adjusting FX. That's not how Zhou Xiaochuan or any previous PBOC governor rolls. Its asking for trouble to raise rates and not adjust FX given the wall of cash Chinese corporates will be bringing back onshore given USD yields ~0.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-29364625407739346222010-03-09T20:42:40.883+00:002010-03-09T20:42:40.883+00:00China to Raise Rates "Within Weeks"<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajilmEKXv7fM&pos=3" rel="nofollow"> China to Raise Rates "Within Weeks" </a>Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-54138117573112195902010-03-09T17:56:31.245+00:002010-03-09T17:56:31.245+00:001. No
2. When the US double-dips and global trade ...1. No<br />2. When the US double-dips and global trade continues to contract, they'll let it fall<br />3. None<br />4. Yes, they'll reduce the number of people on the committee.<br />5. BoE -- the UK will default first.<br />6. 1.70...just to screw with me for visiting "home" in August.<br />7. They're Utd fans, it's their god-given right, no?<br />8/9/10. Yes<br />11. 1050<br />12. Georgetown; unless they lose to some non-descript side in Round 1!<br />However, they'll make a mockery of my unemployed purchase of Big-East tickets to all sessions by losing tomorrow.<br />13. I hope so.<br />14. Yes; parliament won't be hung...it'll be talked about too much in the final week of the election campaign, and voters will break one way or the other to avoid it.<br />15. Was consensus ever there? Isn't it a necessity for a W, for people to believe in a V?<br />16. Isn't old enough to know that :)<br />17-20 No ideaOur Man in NYChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05354882944509890790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-85843098067347211302010-03-09T17:55:53.813+00:002010-03-09T17:55:53.813+00:00Magic Tuesday today. Some of the put:call ratios t...Magic Tuesday today. Some of the put:call ratios today have to be seen to be believed, MM. Tech stocks are acting like it's 1999 lately.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-33943539934813465432010-03-09T17:30:57.709+00:002010-03-09T17:30:57.709+00:00Ok, so following on from MM's reply viz channe...Ok, so following on from MM's reply viz channels etc and the like:<br /><br />15: Yes if people are expecting top line growth. If inventories are just recovering to a kind of normal state of the world then any further upside from here will be top line driven (costs suppressed as they can be from 08-09 cuts, pent up demand met). If US retail recovers then I think this is donezo. <br /><br />Back to the Richard Koo thing, is it possible to get a joint distribution of income / change in reported spending or income / leverage / reported spending? Probably not unless one has the raw data...<br /><br /><br />9) Yup unless leverage comes back up or incomes do since rates can't go any lower. <br /><br />1) Hope so.Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-63159137413011053712010-03-09T17:19:27.106+00:002010-03-09T17:19:27.106+00:001) No. 2) Q3 2010. 3) None - reverse repos and end...1) No. 2) Q3 2010. 3) None - reverse repos and ending MBS purchases 4) Yes, in 2011 5) BoE as they will experience inflation faster 6) 1.30 [Cable - like that, very Old School]. 7) Debt. 8) Yes. 2s10s has peaked. 9) Bloody well hope so, the faster the better, want to buy rental properties for income (see 16) 10) Evens on more QE by BoE. 11) SPX 1050. 12) NCAA blacked out on Cablevision. 13) No snow London, one more snow NY. 14) No hung parliament, Tory win. No loss by Dems. 15) The consensus never adopted a W or a double-dip, they are playing this as an ordinary recession, not a balance sheet recession with eventual debt deflation. 16) Ho ho ho, SS, that's a good one. LB is buying rental properties in college towns when we get to the bottom. 17) Ratings agencies are already largely irrelevant, 18) Only a panic can induce short end purchases here 19) No downgrade 20) Crude is heavily manipulated by storage which eventually feeds supply and drags down price after the summer "driving season", or even earlier. We see the $50s again this year on dollar strength.Leftbackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07728096415928915882noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-8466750411615105562010-03-09T16:52:38.124+00:002010-03-09T16:52:38.124+00:0016) We don't think Alan Greenspan is an evil g...16) We don't think Alan Greenspan is an evil genius any morewcwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16307608293310560164noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-92102832747301974602010-03-09T16:12:55.304+00:002010-03-09T16:12:55.304+00:001) No
2) 2011 Chinese new year
3) NONE to rates bu...1) No<br />2) 2011 Chinese new year<br />3) NONE to rates but will continur to drain<br />4) dunno<br />5) BoE as currency melt cranbks up inflation and they go for the wrong reasons<br />6) 1.30<br />7) Dunno about fopball<br />8) Yes<br />9) yes<br />10) 18.232% <br />11) 1050<br />12) Wassat?<br />13) No trip to St anton in a week's time shourl solve that. <br />14) No<br />15) No<br />16) no idea<br />17) Yes - but get ignored. Same way that they'll protect the Euro for ever. Breaking the Hypocratic oath and "striving officiously to keep alive" even to the point of making it completely untradable and locking it up wrapped in cotton wool in a cellar in Brussels. But it must not die. <br />18) Are they? <br />19) No<br />20) May 25th 2010Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16493017108002669705noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-48482477811459523582010-03-09T15:00:26.107+00:002010-03-09T15:00:26.107+00:00"16) Do all Americans of "Generation X&q..."16) Do all Americans of "Generation X" vintage and younger regard their Social Security statements with as much scepticism as Macro Man?"<br /><br />I recently got a letter from Treasury telling me I shouldn't worry as I might get as much as 76cents back on the dollar!__https://www.blogger.com/profile/18426730906924848636noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-9267970207196010772010-03-09T14:31:12.118+00:002010-03-09T14:31:12.118+00:001)No
2)H2 earliest
3)None
5)Fed
6) neither any...1)No<br /><br />2)H2 earliest<br /><br />3)None<br /><br />5)Fed<br /><br />6) neither anytime soon but 1.30 more likely than 1.70<br /><br />10) I put odds at around 1 in 6 of more QE but will be Aug inflation report not May primarily because of election and secondly because Merve needs to see headline head back to target.<br /><br />11) - momentum monkeys mean we trade 1200. Couple of largo macros covered yday pm.<br /><br />18) - How anyone can be getting long Mar 11 Euribor here is beyond me but as this was my personal pain trade this year am not the most objective. Curves priced ok on hold to maturity basis but risk premium way too skinny. People already talking about loading up m/c puts pre Mar payroll.<br /><br />Well done on the blog adjustment, the no. of comments may reduce but quality of discussion is rapidly returning.dchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06390553244181110309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-37047217111258824502010-03-09T14:29:42.432+00:002010-03-09T14:29:42.432+00:00cable down 7 weeks in a row thus far
$usd this 81...cable down 7 weeks in a row thus far<br /><br />$usd this 81 been a major number in history:<br />http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$usd&p=W&st=1981-07-20&en=1975-12-31&id=p98443290324<br /><br />euro 134.4 was also a .618 fib<br /><br />gold the 1110 has the 50/20 MA's and trendline<br /><br /><br />Moody's Investors Service says in a new Special Comment: expects that -- over the next one to three years -- it will phase out the extraordinary support assumptions currently incorporated into the senior debt and deposit ratings of a number of UK financial institutions and revert to its lower, pre-crisis support assumptions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14023162932549082052010-03-09T14:10:07.436+00:002010-03-09T14:10:07.436+00:005) The Fed will raise rates before ECB or BOE
16)...5) The Fed will raise rates before ECB or BOE<br /><br />16) Those Social Security mailings are laughable. I hope they're not expensive, and I don't know why they're not electronic for everyone under age 45.Todd Endershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11765421990571845437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-38904091163791012352010-03-09T12:59:15.539+00:002010-03-09T12:59:15.539+00:00#20) CLo1 > 85 in 2dH-2010 , with backwardation...#20) CLo1 > 85 in 2dH-2010 , with backwardation returning to the fward curve as well.<br />Good time to take fences on board (-put/+call), or long calls:<br />dec10 now 30% vol...that's cheap!P2https://www.blogger.com/profile/12972110421808916622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-30496561696504323002010-03-09T12:43:23.422+00:002010-03-09T12:43:23.422+00:001) No.
2) Q3.
3) +75bps on Fed Funds. SPF, MBS rol...1) No.<br />2) Q3.<br />3) +75bps on Fed Funds. SPF, MBS roll-off and Reverse Repos contracting the balance sheet - monetaris would call that monetary policy tightening even if the Committee isn't.<br />4) Yes, but it will not be as united as it was in the presence of Kohn.<br />5) BoE.<br />6) 1.70.<br />7) Pass.<br />8) Yes.<br />9) No - sideways/slightly up.<br />10) 20%.<br />11) 1050.<br />12) Pass.<br />13) I hope so.<br />14) No Hung Parliament, no idea about the Democrats.<br />15) Yes.<br />16) N/A.<br />17) Yes.<br />18) Accident waiting to happen.<br />19) No.<br />20) 2011?cphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08593205721892670374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-36013753639482773622010-03-09T12:03:43.002+00:002010-03-09T12:03:43.002+00:00re: 16
Having seen 2 stock market collapses a rea...re: 16<br /><br />Having seen 2 stock market collapses a real estate crash and a credit crisis of some magnitude, witnessed institutional failures, corporate frauds and declining living standards in return for a generation of likely higher taxes.......I think the Gen X'ers have become a bit predisposed to scepticism unfortunately. <br /><br />Wow, that was a mini-polemic....... as you wereRosscohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18218092677103028057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-14709033450799138212010-03-09T11:14:12.051+00:002010-03-09T11:14:12.051+00:00Nemo, the contribution of inventories to growth in...Nemo, the contribution of inventories to growth in the Q4 NIPA data was the highest since 1987; the bounce in H2 was itself sufficient to take the aggregate 2 year growth contribution of inventories to basically zero. While it can of course very from firm to firm and industry to industry, the evidence seems pretty compelling.Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-87507235632809821742010-03-09T10:38:13.225+00:002010-03-09T10:38:13.225+00:00Is there any evidence out there of this being MM&#...Is there any evidence out there of this being MM's supposed inventory bounce? Was wondering if there was a good datasource to crunch working capital ratios for the S&P in aggregate, if this is inventory then you'd assume that the downstream sectors will see a blowout in inventory days, receivable days etc.....<br /><br />Just trying to put some statistical bones on what a lot of folks' hunch is around here. <br /><br />Also, if that's the case then how does this fit into the Richard Koo target leverage idea? Would we expect these channels to fill up as stimulus impact wears off over the next few quarters? <br /><br />Furthermore, who is doing the spending? Is there any good data on people's spending and their personal balance sheet? Are we just seeing those who have hit their target leverage go out and spend again whereas most of country is screwed to very screwed? <br /><br /><br />Questions questions in need of good data....Nemo Incognitohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07345185457108156269noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-45062905265472381052010-03-09T10:37:28.212+00:002010-03-09T10:37:28.212+00:00Oh yeah. Forgot the most important one.....
iv) C...Oh yeah. Forgot the most important one.....<br /><br />iv) China couldn't give a rat's @rse what the US call it. We've been here so many times before.Pascoehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12228444820383185216noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-25275074389011531192010-03-09T10:35:16.796+00:002010-03-09T10:35:16.796+00:005) Fed hikes first.
6) Cable 1.30 first
8) Have...5) Fed hikes first.<br /><br />6) Cable 1.30 first <br /><br />8) Have we seen the peak in US 2's- 10's? No<br /><br />9) House prices continue to slide in US and non-London UK<br /><br />10) 50/50<br /><br />11) SnP either way, its going to be an ugly range trade all year.<br /><br />12) NCAA - Syracuse<br /><br />13) Have we seen the last of the snow for this year (fingers crossed)? - Not where I live :)<br /><br />15) Has the consensus abandoned the double-dip/W-shaped economic profile in the G4 economies? Not if the readers of zerohedge constitute consensus.<br /><br />18) How can anyone be enthused at buying the short end in the US/UK/EMU at these levels? I think some people still think they are cheap.<br /><br />19) Will the UK get downgraded by the end of next year? Yes.<br /><br />20) When will oil break out of this $65 - $85 range? $90 & 50fib is more likely upper boundary of range.Nichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15083151714732237616noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34323687.post-1175589809409956602010-03-09T10:33:23.784+00:002010-03-09T10:33:23.784+00:00Re 1) -kinda tough to see the real benefit for th...Re 1) -kinda tough to see the real benefit for the US in doing so given;<br /><br />i) The actions of the SNB / BIS (ok I mknow in trade terms frankly who cares but the symbolism is there)<br />ii) The BoJ quietly getaing the missiles ready (without actually opening the silo doors yet)<br /><br />iii) DXY holding solidly on this break back through the 50% retrace of the move down from last year's highs.<br /><br />Any senators want a jolly-up? I'm sure the wearther down there is very clement this time of year.....Pascoehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12228444820383185216noreply@blogger.com