Thursday, April 30, 2009
Macro Man feels like he's channelling Star Wars. Yesterday's action was drearily predictable, with the poor GDP figure met with risk-asset buying, and the Fed non-announcement met with more risk-asset buying. Oh, sure, the Fed said that they were gonna keep rates low for an extended (Is that longer than "considerable"? - Ed.) period. Of course, the eurodollar strip steepened, so its not exactly like that was taken at face value across markets.
In any event, a number of risk-asset charts are looking pretty compelling. Spoos are currently trading well above the congestion zone around 870-875, the dollar's broken down, and stuff like the Ozzie, after a recent period of congestion, has broken both its recent high and the3 200-day moving average (for the first time since last August.)
It all looks really quite bullish. So Macro Man finds himself feeling like Luke Skywalker...trying to maintain his fundamental convictions, but feeling tempted by the increasingly attractive delights of the Dark Side. While some market cheerleaders are more Jar Jar Binks than Darth Vader, a number of people whose opinion Macro Man respects are bullish.
At the same time, tomorrow brings a change of month, and with it a sharply deteriorating seasonal for equities. What's a punter to do? Is it worth embracing a Dark Side, even just a little, while planning to revert to type at the appropriate time? Hey, even Darth Vader came around in the end....