Friday, May 01, 2009

Good News On Public Health

With all the virtual ink spilt on the unfortunate situation in Mexico, Macro Man is pleased to be able to share some good news on public health with readers. It has been widely feared that nano-virus RU-a-WA-ke, otherwise known as "central bankers' flu", was reaching pandemic status.

It tragically claimed the entire executive board of the Swiss National Bank in mid-March, shortly after they embarked on a bold strategy of getting CHF into the system via the foreign exchange market.

And recently, it appeared that the Monetary Authority of Singapore had also been claimed by CB flu, prompting some discussion at IMF board level as to the propriety of declaring a global pandemic. Macro Man is therefore pleased to disclose this morning that the MAS is apparently not dead, and that the straight-line appreciation of the SGD after the MAS lowered the NEER basket parity does, apparently, have limits.

Or at least so we may gather by the price action pictured below, which is redolent of intervention by MAS through the usual local agent banks.
Macro Man trusts that readers will join him in wishing the MAS a speedy recovery. Now, about that "ursine flu" that seems to be ravaging the population of global bear colonies....


Anonymous said...


tom said...

IR Meeting for the Aussie next week, any word from the Journo mafia?

"concensus" is "unch"

Jeffrey D. Benson said...

I understand the enticement of crossing over to the dark side, but I urge you not to do it. I was very bullish while everyone was saying that the $12.5 T lent, spent, guaranteed, or committed by the U.S. fed wasn't going to have an impact, but this rally is overbought. I'm waiting for the myopic investment community to stop looking at the rate of change and look at the current numbers. Consumer Sentiment....still at lows last seen in the 70s. mean our manufacturing sector is still contracting. What the fed hasn't done, that I was so optimistic about it doing was truly getting credit to the masses. Credit that would bolster consumer spending. But the efforts have been muffled... at best. Stay short, convicted, and bold. I am.

Anonymous said...

Since you and most of people on this blog know a lot about currencies, I was wondering if you had a plausible explanation for the buying activity on the Brittish pound.

If you go visit the futures section of site (using "Test" and "Go" as Login/password), you will see this specific pattern.

Is it state intervention to support the currency or speculative buying?

I understnad that AUD would be accumulated since it is supported by a strong commodities based economy, but the British Pound???

Macro Man said...

tom, sure enough, McCrann is out this evening suggesting unched. Zzzzz

Jeffrey, trust me, my conviction is still on the short side, though I have to be open-minded when it comes to short-term trading. Indeed, equities were far and away my most profitable strategy last month, though sadly they didn't come close to offsetting the losses from CB flu.

Anon, I think there are two things at work here. One is that sterling is pretty unambiguously cheap for the first time in a long, long time, which gives a number of people a bias to buy strength. By the same token, there is another cohort of people who are pursuing a 'punish the printers' currency strategy. When the latter stop out, the former are emboldened, and vice versa. In the grand scheme of things, sterling goes nowhere, but has some quite sharp peaks and valleys.

Anonymous said...

bAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...Your a cynic!!!