Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Macro Man is struggling to come up with much desire to have an active investment stance, let alone layer fresh risk, ahead of a few days fraught with event risk. Given the run-up in equities, EM, etc., it would be entirely plausible for those markets to sustain a setback as longs take some profits....which, if he isn't careful, could lure a bear like Macro Man from his peaceful hibernation.
Regardless of the outcome of the next few days, a bit more two-way risk does seem likely. The stress-test pendulum seems to be swinging back the other way, with this morning's headlines focusing on BAC's need for an extra $34 billion, which probably constitutes a little more than they can dig up from under the cushions of John Thain's old sofa.
Tomorrow's ECB meeting could possibly be shaping for a disappointment; while 25 bps of easing is baked in the cake, it seems unlikely that the Bank's "unconventional" measures will be anything terribly sexy. And given the "green shoots" that are emerging even in Europe, no doubt the Weimar Republic's representatives on the council will be fighting tooth and nail for rate hikes before too long.
As for payrolls on Friday....well, it's all a crap shoot. The unemployment rate should tick up, but as for the headline number, who knows? On second thought, given that the out-turn has exactly matched the consensus for most of this year, thanks to
government maniupulation of the data economists' new-found forecasting prowess, perhaps the consensus forecast of -610k is the best guess.
But hey, we always have China! PBOC has hit the wires this morning, promising to increase the yuan's exchange-rate flexibility while keeping it stable. Ohhhhhhhhh...kkkaaaaayyyyyy. If we're back to playing these sorts of games, you'll have to pardon Macro Man if he has little desire to play along.