Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Same (Stuff), Different Day.

Perhaps the real answer to yesterday's query about yen vols is that markets have run out of steam and that each day looks more or less like every other. EUR/equities/bond yields go down, and a flurry of explanations fly as to why the moves will continue. EUR/equities/bond yields go back up, and another flurry ensues, explaining why the first flurry was wrong and why this move will continue. At the end of the week, you find you've gone nowhere and that your P/L bears a strong negative correlation to the number of times you've traded. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Maybe today's US GDP and FOMC announcement will generate some signal, but at this point Macro Man is dubious. It feels like we're in one of those environments where a weak GDP figure will be waved aside as "old news", whereas a better-than-expected number will be taken as proof of sprouting "green shoots". Yawn. As for the Fed, having shot their wad whispering into the Illuminati's ear ahead of the last meeting, would now appear ot have little capacity to surprise. Unless, of course, the Fed decides to screen a live cage match between Ben Bernanke and Ken Lewis, with Jim Cramer commentating. Like recent price action, it wouldn't be pretty, but unlike this rubbish it would at least be a bit of fun to watch.


Cortex said...

Given the wide range in estimates for today's GDP figur I think there might be more excitement this afternoon than MM seems to think. First, it seems everyone is getting used to numbers coming in slightly than consensus, so an "in-line" figure might spur some disappointment. Secondly, a number towards the bottom of range (-8%) would underscore the Pythonesque silliness in the bank stress test's "adverse" scenario of a full-year number as high as 3,3%. A low number would then possibly convince even the die-hard fans of the stress test that it will not hold the cleansing virtues that it was hoped to a while back. Third, for those of us operating in the nostalgia-socialist countries that close markets on May 1, GDP is this week's big number.

Anonymous said...

Its all contrived. Everything that happens in themarket is contrived. When will people grasp that we are constantly being fuc$ed with.

Today, news.

World markets rally as swine flu fears diminish
World markets rally as swine flu fears diminish, better than expected US economic data

* Pan Pylas, AP Business Writer
* On Wednesday April 29, 2009, 5:43 am EDT

Buzz up!
* Print

LONDON (AP) -- World stock markets rallied Wednesday after better-than-expected U.S. data fueled hopes that the world's largest economy was showing tentative signs a recovery is imminent and fears faded -- for now -- over the economic impact of a possible swine flu pandemic.

After two days of declines, the main Asian and European markets posted broad-based gains, with airline stocks -- slammed in recent days amid worries about the disease's toll on travel -- up sharply.

The manipulation of the dollar\eur was ridiculous. Take a look at an hourly chart. All based on the faux swine flu.

Flyovers of NY to scare NYers. This is was just a message to the people. DO NOT GET OUT OF LINE because we are here, and can change things in an instance.

More market BS today. We will go straight up to 900, and maybe 940 on BS. Then after they have sucked everyone (except me!) in to this BS rally, they will squash the sheeple, and leave them for dead.

We are in deep sh$t here in the USA. Arlen Specter is now switching parties. That;s great!!!

Now, they a filibuster proof Senate. The Democrats are more criminal than the Republicans, and many will soon see atrocities they have never seen before.

Sorry for the rant. I'm tired of waking up to bullcrap every goddamn morning.

Anonymous said...

MM--profits easy to come by these days just have some courage to sell VOL--moving towards summer time and VIX still close to 40--takes some courage but figure if we break and go you'll figure out how to make some money and atleast u selling fx vol around 14 not 8 of 2 years ago at this time

Macro Man said...

Anon, every time I have sold vol over the past two years, I have regretted it. I understand that it is easy to make money selling options that expire worthless...but if you don't think THIS is over (and I don't), it is also easy to blow up doing that as well.

Steve said...

Lower GDP with higher consumer spending, how is that going to work? Seems the consumer has't gotten the memo.

pej said...

MacroMan was right