Just When It Starts To Get Interesting.....

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Just when things start to get interesting- the SPX puts in its worst day since March 2nd and FX carry gets up close and personal with Ms. Kubler-Ross- Macro Man has to up and leave the market for a bit.

At last, more than two months after his moment of hubris, he's getting his ACL reconstructed today....very possibly as you are reading this.

So you'll have to excuse him from posting for a couple of days, though he intends to return when he gets off the drugs and back onto the screens.

In the meantime, he's devised a small contest to amuse readers in his absence. After introducing you to Harry and Tom last week, here's their friend Dick, who provides as good a summary as anything for the nature of the recent rally.
Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to name the underlying that is behind Dick. The winner, who will be the first to correctly unmask Dick in the comments section, will win a prize that is literally priceless: a year's subscription to this very site!

Bonne chance, both in the contest and the market generally, and Macro Man will be back before you can say "yours, five hundred spoos."

Posted by Macro Man at 9:45 AM  


Baltic Dry?


Anonymous said...
10:50 AM  

S & P 500 Financials Index?


New Jersey, USA

Anonymous said...
11:40 AM  

Definitely not. The Baltic Dry bottomed at 663 on 20081205, and then rallied to 2055 on 20090211 (which doesn't match the shape of the chart). It has since fallen to 1737 (as of Monday).

Anonymous said...
11:41 AM  

the chart is logarithmic though right..?

Anonymous said...
11:50 AM  


"the chart is logarithmic though right..?"

Yep, my guess is that our good MM might be trying to throw us off with the Y-scale. Bancroft fits ok in pattern in the latter part of the period, not the former though.



CV said...
12:05 PM  

i thought baltic dry too, but it ain't

Anonymous said...
12:10 PM  

Best of luck today.

John said...
12:41 PM  

".DICK U Index"

trying to tell us something?

Anonymous said...
1:09 PM  


Anonymous said...
1:35 PM  

the transports?

Anonymous said...
1:42 PM  

best of luck. don't listen to dr. about rehab. consult with rehab specialist.

Anonymous said...
1:50 PM  

Definatey Not Copper and not Transports. Not Baltic either. Nor is it Bancroft fund.

and the chart is Logarithmic.

The important thing to note is that the rally in Mar 2009 covered all the fall in Jan, Feb and some more. That's the clue for us. what was the best performer in March-09??

From India...

Anonymous said...
1:51 PM  

Hope you get better soon, MM.



Anonymous said...
2:00 PM  

Hmmm, tricky one. Smells like a financial to me. Citigroup looks a lot like this (with same low and high) but just not sure what the coefficients would be.

NordicDude said...
2:16 PM  

Was also just looking at Citi. Is it Log Citi x shares in issue?

Anonymous said...
2:19 PM  


DVP said...
2:22 PM  

I think it's the no of stocks under the 50 day moving average for an index. The sp500 has a similar formation from the beginning of the year an onwards but not prior...strange...and it doesn't fit a specific sector either.

my two cents...


Anonymous said...
2:25 PM  

Index comprised of TARP recipients?

Miguel_Swanstein said...
2:30 PM  

"Is it Log Citi x shares in issue?"

Is he allowed to make this kind of nasty combination :( ?

@DVP ...

Nice one, but the chart in the post has a higher peak after the low than before which does not correspond with a 3m chart of AIG. (or am I wrong?)


CV said...
2:33 PM  

CDS on Iceland?

Anonymous said...
2:52 PM  

Hey MM, what's ACL?

Anonymous said...
3:08 PM  

thanks to DVP for coming up with the AIG mention. But in fact the chart is actually AIG Squared, multiplied by 1000.

please don't even question this result, because you'll prove yourself to be an idiot by doing so. the numbers are obvious. AIG squared, times 1000.

EC said...
3:19 PM  

ACL - is that your cruciate ligament macro man? did ya fall off a damn chart!? I did mine when a young man doing a run ib a french ski resort ouch and ultra ouch

Anonymous said...
4:34 PM  

Easy. It's a reverse flying candle using a tekka maki scale overlaid with a konfabulator simplex.

Note to Mr. Man: Whatever you do, don't let them cut the red wire.

Mike said...
6:10 PM  

good work EC, it is AIG squared times 1000 indeed!

Anonymous said...
6:32 PM  

Damn ... good one guys (if indeed the (AIG^2)*1000 is right). Judging by EC's confidence and "anon @ 6.32's" confirmation I am willing to concede without even checking.


CV said...
7:18 PM  

aig! great trick... interestingly enough, the pattern resembles the xle; but the numbers don't match up of course.

Anonymous said...
8:06 PM  

Looks like its based on SGDUSD?

-- Rich

Anonymous said...
4:48 AM  

I take it back, EC is right - don't bother to check it

-- Rich

Anonymous said...
4:57 AM  

I wouldn't even dare hazard a guess, but in any case....best wishes for a speedy recovery, MM.


Anonymous said...
7:58 AM  
This comment has been removed by the author.
Manav said...
2:41 PM  

Dear MM,

best wishes for a speedy recovery. hope everything went off well.



gsm_73 said...
10:38 AM  

It is a trade (long/shot). Up is baltic dry but what is down?

It is an index...

Anonymous said...
2:27 PM  

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