It's elementary!

Consider the following:

1) Global bonds are once again strongly bid. Is it central bank liquidity, growth fears, or a short-killing cocktail fo the two?

2) US Q3 growth all of a sudden doesn't look so bad. Sure, the number will likely be revised up, but the French and (likely) the Japanese would trade their Q3 growth for America's 'awful' number.

3) Equities appear to be trying to roll over.

4) The Aussie dollar is underperforming on a cross basis.

5) Although precious metals are doing well, copper is taking a bath.

6) The resource stocks have had a nice run, and Macro Man remains heavily exposed as a percentage of the portfolio. Price action in stocks like Phelps Dodge is ugly today, and the OIH ain't looking too hot, either.

What should we conclude from this? It's elementary! Time to sell Aussie stocks. Macro Man sells 200 XPZ6 futures at 5420, stopping out at 5500. Futures were at 5000 less than six weeks ago, so the risk/reward of the trade is exceedingly compelling- hence the relatively hefty risk allocation.
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November 11, 2006 at 2:17 AM ×

it was strange seeing the Euro rally in spite of 0% GDP in France .... because the Chinese will diversify out of $$$$'s ?!?!?!? insane

Macro Man
November 11, 2006 at 3:41 PM ×

Hence the irritation with Lord Voledmort & co. They have knocked the stuffing out of private sector traders this year, and now the market is a) trading with a much shorter time horizon, and b)mostly trying to game what the CBs are doing. EUR/USD has not been impossible to trade if you can figure out where the CBs are happy to bid or offer 'your amount.' It has, however, been very difficult to trade from a macro thematic perspective in 2006.