What Can Field of Dreams Teach Us About Corn And Trading Macro?

Last night I wasted Field of Dreams with the kids. Plenty of complaints before the start. One wanted to watch Avengers, another didn’t want to watch a sports movie. The other one was opposed to the entire endeavor. 


They came around pretty quick. But here was my big takeaway: I’m on the verge of becoming a naturalized citizen in the commodity world--I couldn’t stop thinking about how all the farmers were appalled and outraged when Kevin Costner dug up his corn to build the baseball field. And then there was the clearly disastrous financial implications, where this decision put his farm on the verge of bankruptcy. 

I had questions. 1) how much corn did he dig up? 2) how much revenue did he forego, in absolute terms and relative to the size of the farm? 3) Given a few assumptions, was this really a farm-wrecking decision, or was this Hollywood stuff? 

In 1987 many farms in Iowa were between 250-500 acres, and this same data shows a husband/wife team could have eked out a living managing such farm. Let's assume this was a 250 acre farm.

The average value per acre in Iowa was $875 in 1987, around the depth of the US farm crisis. A 250-acre farm could have been had for around $220,000. Lets call it $280k with a modest farm house on the property. Putting say, $60k down on such a property was certainly within reach for a college educated, dual income couple in their mid-30s that has been working and saving for 10-15 years.

So 250 acres of corn, yielding 120 bushels nets you 30,000 bushels of corn. Lets say Kevin Costner is a particularly crafty basis trader and he gets $2/bushel for his corn. He grosses $60,000.  The 1987 census report above suggests such a farm might generate $20-$30k in net income--enough to live on if you’re into the lifestyle--but there were many farms during that time that were losing money.  Bankruptcy was certainly on the mind of every US farmer in the mid-late 80s. 

Now, what about this baseball field? A major league baseball field is around 2.5 acres. 


But with foul territory and some residual space for bleachers, you’re probably looking at another acre. But no more than 4.5 acres total, even if you add in a few parking spaces. 

Let's say Kevin Costner dug up four acres of corn. That’s less than $1000 in foregone revenue in the year he dug it up (it probably had some residual silage value!) and in the new crop year when Shoeless Joe finally showed up. 

So our hero gave up $1000 out of $60,000 in revenue, and maybe $30,000 in net income. Let’s add on another $1000 for the infield dirt, the grass he planted, and the backstop fence.  Despite the gossiping and murmuring of the other farmers and their wives, he certainly could have billed it as a community service--and heck, even written it off on his taxes--since presumably he didn’t just let the field sit there..he let the local farm-kid teams play on it while he was waiting for whatever was supposed to happen. 

An aggressive financial decision, but one easily justified by hearing a voice say, “If you build it, he will come.” 

Kevin Costner made one crazy, totally unjustifiable decision: he lit the field!! 


This, is what would have bankrupted his farm. This is the decision that would have had his smarmy brother-in-law questioning his sanity.  Lighting the field today would easily get you into six digits, and would certainly have been out of reach for a financially strapped family farmer in the midst of an agricultural crisis.

Sure, it made for the coolest scene in the movie. 
But completely implausible.  

Here’s a few light-hearted takeaways for market analysis: 

Question assumptions. We all have a cognitive bias to buy into what we’re being told. It’s called “Truth Default Theory”. It’s what makes movies work….but it often turns into a trap in markets. 

Sometimes the trade is not where you think. Everyone jumped on Kevin Costner for digging up his corn--but it was the lights that were financially reckless. 

Everyone loves a story.  Many trades are long on “story” because stories sell. You’re not going to get your boss to buy into upsizing your trade because of your spreadsheet. You need a story.

But….every story needs data.  Stories without data are just that, Hollywood stories. A good story combined with solid data can go a long way. 

But most important:
Be open to changing your mind.  I didn’t mention this above, but the key point of the movie is when the fussy pants brother-in-law has his epiphany. This was a man that was deep into his own trade to buy Kevin’s farm. But he changed his mind. That this was done only with divine intervention is irrelevant! Too often we get wedded to ideas and refuse to accept the metal cost of accepting that we were wrong and changing course. 

Love your ideas, but don’t be afraid to set them free. 


Newest
Previous
Next Post »

424 comments

Click here for comments «Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 424   Newer›   Newest»
September 30, 2019 at 7:13 AM ×



Well, you said you'd love to hear our ideas...

2020 American election vote for trumpy aka "((chinese bookie in the oval office))".


"Make America Gamble Again"

Reply
avatar
September 30, 2019 at 9:05 AM ×



its monday arvo here...amps is sliding down the tree of horror branches...

amps needs to set the marketplace straight around here as he sick of blocking out the subliminal messages that he still till this day sees swaying back and forth upon the podium...let's help out the easts/souths sydney ((mob)) get over their weekend.

ffs...i did not take your jacket! ( get a life...take someone's else charlie)

ffs...stop bringing archer off the bench ( "BIASED"...and still a good excuse 20 years later!!!)

ffs...you pal and matey and friends...bad fuckin luck!...you guys are jonahs...i don't care what you do...just get a life without me in it.


Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
October 1, 2019 at 4:06 AM ×

Hi Shawn, I'm a bit confused as to the point you are trying to make. Are you sugg8ing that one of best years for macro traders is coming to abrupt end? Are you suggesting the boat is lopsided? Are you suggesting that volatility is making a comeback(traders paradise)? Are you suggesting profit talking will be early this year? Or is it a soul cleansing exercise that has to be done to release the beast.
Somehow I think it's a bit of all them.

Reply
avatar
October 4, 2019 at 2:56 PM ×



its friday night here...amps is settling in with his favorite omen for this weekends adventures...


ffs...why don't they play this after the last race


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-KwOPh_haQ

Reply
avatar
October 4, 2019 at 6:09 PM ×



Oooohhhyeaaahhhhhh.....


"rock it in the daytime"".....

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 8, 2019 at 10:34 PM ×

Amps shut the fuck up you crack head!

Reply
avatar
October 9, 2019 at 4:37 AM ×



anonymous...i've had it with you civilians out there...

your trolling of traders here is not constructive.

i love how the world sees other lone punters out there is the wilderness...the experts, the behavioral psychologists, and best of all the elites and the gongsters.

if you leave someone isolated long enough and left alone to his own free will within his own mind...you get someone that just cannot be anything but honest with himself...he learns his limitations, his strengths, his flaws...you name it. its no jail cell you have put me in...quite the contrary...its a lab!

i won't change ....forget it guys!

Reply
avatar
October 14, 2019 at 6:09 AM ×


its monday morning here...amps is stuck in the bondi swiss grand.


amps is suffering from cognitive dissonance as walks through the lobby of the swiss grand as he is in two minds of whether to hit the trading desk in time for the tokyo open...or settle in at the swissy and play with the field...

the only way you can get amps out of the swissy presidential on a monday morning is on punting matters only...especially monday morning...must admit though...there was always a good optic at the swissy...aahh...those were the days...mr.nobody just enjoying the scenery.

i'd give an left arm and right leg to go back into that time...just a nobody...

anyway...i was thinking...since the swissy is open all day an night...you'd think it be too much to ring up catherine mcneil and lyndia collins as see if they'll come over?

lets face it...i need to go back in time and feel once again how stress free it was to be around girls that like to play...where you can be yourself and no one cares who you are...ahhh...those were the days...

Reply
avatar
Unknown
admin
October 17, 2019 at 12:37 PM ×

Offer special discounts and sales. Ganga music Keep the information updated. Ask customers to join a mailing list so they get steady reminders about your products. You have the ability to reach a worldwide audience this way.Ganga bhakti

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 4:47 AM ×



its saturday arvo here....the races are on , and people are at the movies...

not amps...his retired...

give it up johnny boy...blame it no one...you didn't take a leap of faith when it was expected from you...

you will never get a skerrett of alpha from me...you shit is still laying the street ((MF!))

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 4:56 AM ×



just let you know ((MF!)) i walked out of jail....didn't get wheeled out...take your best shot...see how that leap of faith works out for ya!

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 5:38 AM ×



yeah...its you and me C##t no one else...don't go throwing your Bullshit around town on other small teams etc etc...its between you and me...and you know it!

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 6:12 AM ×



johnny boy...the only place you should've threw me out of was the collins pimp house!

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 6:15 AM ×



and you nat...i wouldn't take a turd in one of your houses.

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 7:21 AM ×




ann there's sydney's most lovable larrikin ...choas singo...working all the angles...from protector...to mini-gangster...whatever way he can create enough chaos so that he can water it all down to a deal ...fuck off singo ...your the biggest cunt all...

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 7:28 AM ×



i know exactly who you are singo...i know everything...and you haven't a clue...just winging it!


"cunty singo"...when his left out.

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 8:08 AM ×


guess what cunty singo...i've been left out the last 17 years...

put a fork in that!

lol...a fuckin nobody.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 21, 2019 at 3:47 PM ×

Been following this space since 2009…

I have learned an enormous amount by being a retail fly on the wall of the MM site, and I have throughly enjoyed (and benefited in education and broader thinking) from the banter of those good humored souls far smarter than I am.

Trolls are trolls and can always be ignored in favor of smart posts, and in any event, they come and go.

What doesn't come and go, is you, Amps:

I do not know what your relationship is to the blog or its founders, that have tolerated your incessant nonsense, but there must be something there, because 98% of what you have to say is utter nonsense….

I KNOW that you are capable of posting lucid, relevant and interesting things (I have read them), it's just that you don't.

Even now, when this blog is in a coma, and one of the admins puts up an excellent piece of thinking that I want to read, all I see in the comments that used to be inhabited by LB, Checkmate, Nico, Skr, Nemo, Polemic, and all else whose handles currently except me, is you Amps, doing whatever it is you feel you need to do in public.

I am sure that you are smart and capable, and must've been a buddy to someone here at some time, and I wish you well, because you are not a troll, but you do seem to be not well, and I urge you, as an anonymous poster of good intentions, to seek help, and leave this sad blog alone.

Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
October 22, 2019 at 10:59 AM ×

The people of London,Barcelona,Hong Kong(amongst others)do not seem to buying the "we know best" mantra that has served well in history.
Why is population so agitated and is it going to spread? Tick tock,it is hard to appease when you don't know why the masses are angry. Tick Tock...

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 23, 2019 at 5:19 AM ×

Amps, shut the fuck up you crackhead!

Reply
avatar
October 23, 2019 at 7:54 AM ×


"What doesn't come and go, is you, Amps:"

yeah...i know...i'm a masochistic

Reply
avatar
October 27, 2019 at 4:47 PM ×



its monday morning here...amps is up early...

amps is perusing the papers looking of office space in melbourne...

not hollywood, not uk, not nyc, not europe, not sydney, and no bluebloods!

it going to be a beautiful sportsbook...i've always had luck in victoria..expect once!

can't wait to be in a scrum of punters again....i missed you guys.

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 3:06 AM ×




its monday arvo here...amps is going through the books...



no deals...no amount money...no nothing...?

too late...don't care if the fiddler hands over 10Billion...

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 3:10 AM ×




...otherwise ...just do me in...

because im not getting out of bed.

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 5:40 AM ×




where going to need all the luck we can get....

we don't need those bastards around us!

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 5:42 AM ×




those toffs will never stop using nobody's to get at us....


no nothing....protect the sportsbook at all costs!

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 5:46 AM ×



millward's , saintly's and might and power's, they all come go...


but not the sportsbook...


are we clear

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 8:14 AM ×




lol...about nat and packer, trumpy, murdoch and wall street and hollywood..and fashion...and sydney gongsters...and on and on and on...

i can't wait till uni is over next year at june... and i'm back on the dole again...or working in a factory or just working for dole..

no one will know what im doing...no amount of money can replace that peace of mind...

what a day...hey!

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 9:28 AM ×




there's no luck to be had with chelsea...


just putting it out there....

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 10:47 AM ×

HP color laserjet pro MFP m479fdw setup
1.Begin the HP color laserjet pro MFP m479fdw setup process by switching on your system
2.Plug in the power cord of the HP color laserjet pro MFP m479fdw printer and press the power button
3.Once the printer turns on, using the printer cable link the printer and the system
4.Lookout for a message that says, ” additional driver installing
5.Once that completes, you can start printing using the HP color laserjet pro MFP m479fdw printer Setup
If you want to be clear of any doubts, you can make use of the toll-free number that links you to us @ +1-888-214-1820.

Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
October 29, 2019 at 11:48 PM ×

Amps, how do you get all the fun?
Did you know that 8 out of ten cats prefer fake tan-the rest would rather be found dead in a ditch!
Why did the chicken cross the road?
So it could be found dead in a ditch!
Believe what you are told!

Reply
avatar
October 30, 2019 at 3:27 AM ×


skr...

"Why did the chicken cross the road?"


why did the chicken go to nyc and jump on the circus carousal?


so it could come back to australia and forever be on a tear!

Reply
avatar
October 30, 2019 at 9:14 AM ×



listen guys...


my uni course finishes soon...i've got shit to do...

i don't need to spell it out for ya anymore do i?....haters are gonna hate...thats the web!

time to be someone else for change....this tiresome....

Reply
avatar
October 30, 2019 at 9:55 AM ×




amps last quote...and we will copy George Soros....


'I'm proud of my enemies'

Reply
avatar
Whammer
admin
October 31, 2019 at 8:34 PM ×

I'll echo Anon's comment above. I've been following some of these folks since back in the Ritholtz days -- so that is 2007/8 I think.

I'm a Johnny Retail guy, but the commentary has often been very instructive. I should have listened to LB when he called the bottom at 666....

I miss not being able to find anyone anymore.

Reply
avatar
November 1, 2019 at 12:54 PM ×

wireless setup steps for Windows

Go to the HP support webpage 123.hp.com/ljprom15w Setup
Key the model number of the 123.hp.com/ljprom15w and click Search
Now, in the next page, Install printer software, tap download
The download will commence and will be over in some time
Once the download is over, open the fully downloaded file
Navigate the on-screen prompts and select the right options
Eventually, click ‘next’ and the Windows driver download will finish

To know more on the HP LaserJet Pro M15W Wireless Setup, dial us @ +1-888-214-1820

Reply
avatar
November 2, 2019 at 3:39 AM ×




her name was mcneil...
she was the real deal...
she'd come around to kneel...
if only packer was in on the steal...

she had a great partner...
though few had been aware of this persons persona...
they'd twinned it out for the greater good of president jimmy carter...
and all the guys in the situation room were all in laughter!



Reply
avatar
November 2, 2019 at 4:32 AM ×




...when lachlan was asked if he'd give a hand...
the media guys were all filled of amazement...
as no one could remember the last time that lachlan wasn't fed bottle and righthand...
but the media acolytes decided that packer and lachlan were the team to put amps in enslavement...

after the bondi crew failed in their attempted coup...
they decided it was time to produce their hollywood underlings...
in the hope that amps would regain his forgotten memory of testosterone ecstasy that eventually drives him to peru...
however they had forgotten that amps is not attracted to rusty's inner rings...

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 3:38 AM ×



its sunday arvo here...amps is doing the form...


amps has decided his not going to south america as all roads lead to hollywood....

wants none of it...and if tom , dick and harry can walk away from hollywood...

why should amps have to go to hollywood?

why should he...amps doesn't want money...amps is not going to america or hollywood, period.

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 8:52 AM ×




hey lachlan...you know those poison pills you have embedded in newscorp for use of repelling takeover sharks...guess what...swallow this and catch a disease...if you ain't fag...then I'm astronaut for nasa.

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 9:15 AM ×




why are you so special lachlan?...because i wouldn't let the other FAG near it!

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 9:19 AM ×




administrator ...don't you dare delete these comments...if your from Australia you will know exactly what i mean....

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 9:27 AM ×




hey lachlan...what'dya gonna do when daddy's gone?

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 9:29 AM ×




murdoch and packer families...


jailhouse hitters!

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 9:30 AM ×




murdoch and packer families...


jailhouse hitters!

Reply
avatar
November 4, 2019 at 9:07 AM ×




here you go...sneak peak of trumpy's 2016 campaign team's new 2020 trumpy election media advertisement campaign ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnHTWRcyU1g

Reply
avatar
November 5, 2019 at 11:07 AM ×





hey..tudor...you want to be my angel investor?

amps is going to south east asia for awhile due to hollywood and uk being a distraction...see what we can do with amps brain as we finally leave him alone on his beach to model the models she knows best...

Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
November 9, 2019 at 1:06 PM ×

Amps the believer!

Hey Checkmate,how's them 3100+ options cooking for you (Re:Jan 14)? "Over ambitious" they shouted.;)

Anyhoo, are you guys coming for a kick about?

Reply
avatar
sdot54
admin
November 9, 2019 at 11:35 PM ×

Yo, it’s been a minute since I rolled through. This blog is bananas nowadays huh?

Reply
avatar
November 13, 2019 at 12:30 PM ×

skr...

"Amps the believer!"...


yep...melania said amps is a believer...in fact, melania said amps is a beautiful believer...so much so...congress has decided to fund the "amps believer gofund"...its going to be a great investment for america and the democrats.

mate...i am not going to america or the uk...never. i don't won't any responsibilities within those two countries borders ever. the ride is over...the bullshit has come to a close. i couldn't imagined ever attending any celeb or investor party in either country...good grief...mud sticks ...and i will wear mine with pride for the rest of my life...but i'm not going to serve the elites , billionaires or the bluebloods...not ever. i'm taking my bat and ball home and i'm done...i'm a nobody.

Reply
avatar
November 13, 2019 at 12:33 PM ×




jamie packer...i owe you jack!

Reply
avatar
November 20, 2019 at 4:21 PM ×



listen here you trolls here around macro mans blog.

u wanna trigger a group of people?


well...send your donation to " amps believer gofund " and send him to retirement to an undisclosed beach in south east asia/america ....and thereby DE-PLATFORM the souths/eastern suburbs mob for finally all!

amps dream ...

who can't wait to de-platform the slime?

Reply
avatar
November 21, 2019 at 1:44 PM ×

INSTEAD OF GETTING A LOAN,, I GOT SOMETHING NEW
Get $5,500 USD every day, for six months!

See how it works
Do you know you can hack into any ATM machine with a hacked ATM card??
Make up you mind before applying, straight deal...

Order for a blank ATM card now and get millions within a week!: contact us
via email address::{Universalcardshackers@gmail.com}

We have specially programmed ATM cards that can be use to hack ATM
machines, the ATM cards can be used to withdraw at the ATM or swipe, at
stores and POS. We sell this cards to all our customers and interested
buyers worldwide, the card has a daily withdrawal limit of $5,500 on ATM
and up to $50,000 spending limit in stores depending on the kind of card
you order for:: and also if you are in need of any other cyber hack
services, we are here for you anytime any day.

Here is our price lists for the ATM CARDS:

Cards that withdraw $5,500 per day costs $200 USD
Cards that withdraw $10,000 per day costs $850 USD
Cards that withdraw $35,000 per day costs $2,200 USD
Cards that withdraw $50,000 per day costs $5,500 USD
Cards that withdraw $100,000 per day costs $8,500 USD

make up your mind before applying, straight deal!!!

The price include shipping fees and charges, order now: contact us via
email address:: {Universalcardshackers@gmail.com}

Reply
avatar
BCP
admin
November 28, 2019 at 5:29 AM ×

First time/ Long time.

For the love of God can we figure out how to block AMPS? Reckon I speak for anyone left.

Reply
avatar
November 29, 2019 at 11:18 AM ×



BCP...

i appreciate the feedback...and the platform you guys have given me here over the years. but i agree with you. amps is getting on these days from his isolation from ...ummm...lets see over the last 17 years...souths/eastern suburbs mob, enslavement within political circles, forced upon marriage (unwanted kids), an enabler of the plague, a kelloggs packet sydney gongster badge wearing clubber, the certainty of divorce rape, the #metoo movement, the trumpian era, the social justice warriors, the democratic party slaughter of european culture ( every country deserves the culture they embrace just as every country deserves to have their own culture), and probably the owner of too much money to give a toss where the sp500 is going to be next month.

but in all that...im taking applications for data scientists with betting backgrounds for positions for my sports hedgefund. you will have to be able to do a rotating 6 week on 2 week off at my office/beach resort style headquarters on an undisclosed south east asia/ america beach.

so old boy...what was all that last 17 years about? i missed it all!

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 4, 2019 at 12:08 AM ×

Amps, shut the fuck up you crackhead!

Reply
avatar
December 4, 2019 at 3:32 PM ×


anonymous...."Amps, shut the fuck up you crackhead!"

you remember this dont'ya?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvOtsotu6Cc

i love the horrors cunt!

Reply
avatar
Bruce David
admin
December 5, 2019 at 4:50 AM ×

Hello everyone..Welcome to my free masterclass strategy where i teach experience and inexperience traders the secret behind a successful trade.And how to be profitable in trading I will also teach you how to make a profit of $12,000 USD weekly and how to get back all your lost funds feel free to email me on( brucedavid004@gmail.com ) or whataspp number is +22999290178  













Hello everyone..Welcome to my free masterclass strategy where i teach experience and inexperience traders the secret behind a successful trade.And how to be profitable in trading I will also teach you how to make a profit of $12,000 USD weekly and how to get back all your lost funds feel free to email me on( brucedavid004@gmail.com ) or whataspp number is +22999290178  

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2019 at 3:30 PM ×

Fuck off Bruce David you cunt.

Reply
avatar
Helen Wesley
admin
December 10, 2019 at 1:31 PM ×

I've been seeing posts and testimonies about BLANK ATM CARD but I never believed it, not until I tried it myself.
It was on the 12th day of March. I was reading a post about places to visit in Slovakia when I saw this captivating post about how a Man described as Mr George changed his life with the help of a Blank Atm Card. I didn't believe it at first until I decided to reach him through the mail address attached to the post. To my greatest imagination, it was real. Right now am living up to a standard I never used to live before. Today might be your lucky day! Reach Mr George via email: georgebrodericktechnologies@gmail.com and contact number/Whatsapp: +1 210-460-7419.... see you on the brighter side of life

Reply
avatar
December 10, 2019 at 6:30 PM ×

Anda sedang mencari Bandar Togel dan Casino Online yang Terpercaya ? Pastikan bettingan anda hanya di BUNGATOGEL yang merupakan bandar togel terpercaya dan casino online terpercaya

Reply
avatar
December 11, 2019 at 9:48 AM ×




i'm not competing against zeljko Ranogajec. and its never come to mind. fuck...you kidding...not in the same dream my friend.

Reply
avatar
December 11, 2019 at 2:06 PM ×



((they)) should put together a new squad...krav maga won't help ya.

Reply
avatar
December 11, 2019 at 2:10 PM ×




what should we call them...hmmm...((the trumpians bookies))

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 12, 2019 at 1:24 AM ×

Long time lurker here. Hoping to tempt the greater TMM out of hibernation, especially the cool headed oracle that is Leftback, whose wise, contrarian, & actionably early prognostications are sorely missed by lesser intellects such as myself.

The bait: Last years forecasts, reposted to stir debate:

Leftback's Forecasts Posted 27 December 2018:

1) A major intermediate market low has been made, and will not be revisited until at least Q3/4 2019.
2) That shorting is going to be a painful experience for a while - but don't let that stop you.
3) Selling vol is likely to be profitable for a while, certainly until VIX is no longer in steep backwardation.
4) Recession will be averted, the yield curve has already re-steepened, and is no longer inverted, meaning
5) NO rate hikes in 2019; QT autopilot switched off, LOL. A more dovish Powell is already being priced in.
6) Emerging markets will pick up steam soon as China stimulus measures are rolled out.
7) Rates may drift higher as equities recover and spreads tighten, but US fixed income volatility will be low in 2019.
8) Oil is also in the process of bottoming as OPEC tweaks production targets.
9) Punters will complain about algo-driven volatility, and many will buy long vol vehicles.
10) Algo-driven volatility will decline in 2019. Punters will lose money in long vol vehicles.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 12, 2019 at 1:26 AM ×

cbus20122 Forecasts Posted 27 December 2018:

1. Strong dollar continues higher counter to consensus views that the dollar weakens.
2. US economy holds in there for a little while, but slows noticeably as the rest of the world slows even more. US stocks continue to drop, with bigger growth names getting hurt the most at first. This will chop around, but the broad trend is downward.
3. Chinese stimulus rolls out, but isn't enough to prevent the global slowdowns.
4. US equities see a rally, but continue to make lower lows until autumn when things start to really break down.
5. Global real estate bubbles start to pop (home prices have already been faltering through 2018). Notably in Australia, Canada, Scandinavia, New Zealand, Hong Kong etc.
6. Liquidity continues to sputter, and will reach a systemic point where it dries up, causing huge issues as major dollar lenders pull away from the dollar short trade.
7. Europe enters a recession with riots and animosity becoming more and more prevalent.
8. Gold, copper, and commodities traded in USD eventually break down as the dollar rockets higher amidst emerging market debts being due and European weakness causing a surge in dollar value.
9. Long term US Treasury bonds perform relatively well if you purchased them before the fed cuts rates, but will quickly be sold off after the rate cut. They do not perform as well as they did in 2008 or 2001.
10. People will look back on everything that happened and be dumbfounded that we could see a major worldwide slowdown (or recession in some cases) without a 10/2 inversion. They may eventually realize the structural reasons why the 10 year yield isn't getting the same bid that 5 year treasuries have, but it will only be way after the fact.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 12, 2019 at 1:28 AM ×

Moniker: Forecasts Posted 27 December 2018:

-SPX bottoms between 1500-1600
-DB “fails” and merges
-EURUSD parity
-Britain crashes out 3/29
-Oil bottoms below $30
-Spreads over TSYs blow out to 1000bps+
-Rate hikes cease, QT continues
-Trump impeached by House, Senate can’t convict, refuses to resign

Reply
avatar
December 12, 2019 at 7:06 AM ×




yeah...your right, anonymous. we do miss macro mans motley team of prognosticators. but who needs a bloomberg terminal when you still have the necessary energy it takes to find winners alone. of course we know the like of LB & co are still out there doing their best , as we are. all in good time.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 13, 2019 at 10:35 PM ×

Amps, shut the fuck up you crackhead! ((cunt))

Reply
avatar
December 16, 2019 at 7:49 AM ×


Amps, shut the fuck up you crackhead! ((cunt))...listen anonymous.


its monday arvo here...and the boys cannot believe amps is a stayer...

amps has had a few too many over the weekend...but i tell you all my little secret.

my friend Mathew once said to me...as we sat in the middle of royal randwick shopping mall with everyone walking past watching as the slime had aaaaaallllllll of sydney on my ass...

"Scott, you don't have to give them anything...its yours"


over all the previous years to this point...who'd you'd think i listen too...

KP?, souths/eastern suburbs gongsters? or the jacks? or my friend Matthew.

go get fucked!







Reply
avatar
December 20, 2019 at 5:25 AM ×



well traders , merry christmas and happy new year...thx to some of you for listening to amps jibberish throughout the year.

there will be no more coverage next year as we will finish it before the end of year festivities.

what has the world really witness over the last 20 years?

...hate

it's that simple...they all hate me because i don't relate to them...and i have ability...well i have some left.

i don't care for the eastern suburbs hierarchy within the celebrity gangster set...don't fool yourselves people...the celebrity gangster set is in every major capital city...

i don't relate to hierarchical social settings...i just don't have those social cues among many others.

and getting in bed within the american and england social setting will go down as one of my biggest mistakes in life.

i intend to run my own race from here...i will not ever be working for anyone business elite in america or england or anyone for that matter... its my life and i have decided to have a go at trading sports and financial markets without being owned by anyone. i will decide who i marry or have children with if that opportunity comes to bear.

thanks again for listening and i'll see you punters around.

Reply
avatar
River
admin
December 25, 2019 at 12:14 AM ×

Merry Christmas Y'all

LB and friends of this blog PLEASE come and comments if only occasionally to KEEP this place Open.

Mr Macro Please tidy up this place.
Thanks

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 2, 2020 at 9:03 PM ×

Amps, shut the fuck up you crackhead! ((you fucking fag))

Reply
avatar
greyhankin
admin
January 4, 2020 at 1:30 PM ×

Complete the Manual setup of Roku Streaming Device and once you complete the process go for the given steps on your system or mobile.
Steps to be done on the system
1.Now, open the system and click on the browser of your choice
2.Navigate to the Roku.com/link
3.You will find the space to type the code
4.Subsequently, type the alphanumeric code on the space and hit on the submit overlay
5.This should activate your Roku device
For any further queries on Roku com link Activation, feel free to contact our active customer care team, working round the clock at the toll-free number.

Reply
avatar
January 8, 2020 at 6:43 AM ×



hey anonymous...lyds and the cat were captured the other night in yagoona west.

definitely no "jenny from the block" this quinella...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne2-VB5l6fU


be gone!....

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 8, 2020 at 9:18 PM ×

Every macro man has now gone bust shorting equities, or turned into a raving lunatic like amps. Only the guys buying stocks over the past few years have made any money. Delete this joke of a blog already.

Reply
avatar
January 10, 2020 at 12:14 AM ×



its a funny thing...anonymous.


i was going to ask macro man if he'd let me rebirth this blog later this year after i finish my course. i was going to rename it "macro man's alpha vs central banker's state of psychological plausibility" ...it would be a minimum one post a week with amps weekly thoughts of technical , macro and behavioral opinions plus plays in the spoos and major currencies and oil. it would be mainly behavioral underpinnings that i learn as i go along that can be replicated within the marketplace that i think i have an edge in the intermediate term.

of course i would respect that i would leave a tip jar on the blog page...greater the tip...more time for research and honey's in south east asia.

Reply
avatar
Agen Poker
admin
January 10, 2020 at 8:04 PM ×

I am very excited because I can get this very good information, This is one of the really very helpful information, I hope you keep updating other up-to-date information that may be useful to me as well as to many others, Maybe I will recommend this site to my friends, Because I am sure they will be very helpful with this site, just like me, Thank you very much

Pokerlegends merupakan situs agen poker terbaik dengan memiliki 9 game didalamnya seperti Bandar q, adu q, ceme, sagong, texas poker, bandar poker, domino qq, casino war, dan bandar casino war.

Reply
avatar
January 10, 2020 at 8:05 PM ×




listen followers...amps is no lunatic. he just needs to come back here sometimes to get ahead of the bullshit narrative the bullshitters are pushing.

amps is not moving to mexico to start a hedgefund. amps is moving to south east asia...that's where the honey's are legal. amps has lots of catching up to do and he doesn't care for the forbes 500 narrative anymore...the past is the past. period. amps trades his own style and his own account.

Reply
avatar
Thomas
admin
January 15, 2020 at 3:02 AM ×

Thank you for sharing your idea.Forex signals are the forex market’s entry and exit information. In indicates when to buy and when to sell. With the popularity of forex trading, signal provider companies are also increasing

Reply
avatar
January 16, 2020 at 10:07 AM ×

Very interesting blog. Alot of blogs I see these days don't really provide anything that I'm interested in, but I'm most definately interested in this one. Just thought that I would post and let you know

Agen Bola Sbobet

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 16, 2020 at 8:18 PM ×

Amps, shut the fuck up you crackhead!

Reply
avatar
BuyStocks
admin
January 17, 2020 at 10:45 AM ×

History of this blog:
- Macroman (couldn't make money trading)
- Nico (blew his account numerous times, now homeless)
- Everyone else (struggling to make a dime, massively under-performing the SP500)
- BuyStocks (500+% return - long US equities).

Reply
avatar
Sujitha
admin
January 18, 2020 at 5:42 AM ×

Your post is very helpful!
It’s really amazing to have great stuff.
thanks a lot for sharing it.

I would like to offer a great topic for you. Once check it for valuable information.

Forex
Forex
Currency Trading
Currency Trading

Reply
avatar
marketing303
admin
January 19, 2020 at 8:16 AM ×

Thanks for sharing.
Nice infomation articles.
I love This articles
I have a good product.

BandarQ Terbaik
BandarQ Terpercaya
Daftar Poker Gratis
Pkv Online Terpercaya

Reply
avatar
Gary
admin
January 25, 2020 at 9:36 PM ×


I'm here to testify about Mr John Blank ATM Cards which can withdraw money from any ATM machines around the world.. firstly I thought it was scam until I saw so many testimony about how Mr John sent them the ATM blank card and how it was used to withdraw money in any ATM machine and become rich so I decided to risk the opportunity I contacted him also and I applied for the Blank Card to my greatest surprise I have used it to get 10,000 dollars. maximum withdrawal daily $1,000, Mr John is giving out the card just to help the poor. Hack and take money directly from any ATM Machine Vault,If your interested kindly contact him directly on his email (johnlopez1945@gmail.com)

Reply
avatar
Unknown
admin
January 26, 2020 at 8:49 AM ×

Nice post. It is really interesting. Thanks for sharing the post!


game android terbaik
game pc terbaik

Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
January 27, 2020 at 7:37 PM ×

Hey BuyStocks, Are you buying the dip today?

Reply
avatar
January 29, 2020 at 6:27 AM ×

We are featuring girls who are well educated, bold and extremely ravishing.
Bangalore escorts

Reply
avatar
January 31, 2020 at 6:53 AM ×

Packers And Movers Bangalore Local Household Shifting Service, Get Free Best Price Quotes Local Packers and Movers in Bangalore List , Compare Charges, Save Money And Time.@
Packers And Movers Bangalore

Reply
avatar
February 1, 2020 at 7:24 AM ×

Packers And Movers Bangalore Local Household Shifting Service, Get Free Best Price Quotes Local Packers and Movers in Bangalore List , Compare Charges, Save Money And Time.@
Packers And Movers Bangalore

Reply
avatar
February 4, 2020 at 11:39 AM ×

Welcome to Elitemodelsbangalore.com, home of the premium High Class Escorts in Bangalore area. Our Bangalore escorts are the supreme Bangalore has to offer and will provide an unforgettable Bangalore Escort experience!

Bangalore Escorts Services | Top Bangalore Escorts | High Profile Escorts Bangalore | Pune Escorts Models | Escorts in Pune | Elite Bangalore Escorts | VVIP Pune escorts | High Profile Bangalore Escorts | Bangalore High Profile Escorts | Elite Escorts in Pune | Bangalore High Class Escorts

http://www.elitemodelsbangalore.com
http://www.punecompanion.com

Reply
avatar
February 5, 2020 at 10:15 AM ×

Want Indian escorts in Singapore for fun ? We provide hot Indian models, celebrity escorts, airhostesses escorts, South Indian girls. Checkout our Indian girls in Singapore and avail their services for full erotic satisfaction.
Singapore Escorts
Singapore Escorts
Singapore Escorts
Singapore Escorts

Reply
avatar
February 7, 2020 at 10:23 AM ×

Packers And Movers Bangalore Local Household Shifting Service, Get Free Best Price Quotes Local Packers and Movers in Bangalore List , Compare Charges, Save Money And Time.@
Packers And Movers Bangalore

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
February 12, 2020 at 6:02 PM ×



just a hat tip to ya'all out there...after all these years of combat for IP rights...(...ahhemm...cover)...the worst thing you lot could have done was allow me to attend uni (superannuation fund)...there is not enough houses in switzland or gold in the fort knox or the BoE that will get me out of bed to work for any of you. no, its not because i have discovered some souped up quant model...quite the opposite...i know now what it takes to create a souped up quant model...and you cunts are NEVER going to get that out me!

i used to just walk out the gate if i thought the trainer was a fuck up...my lord...what i would do to go back in time and stay put...you were right Bart, fuck ups.

Reply
avatar
.
admin
February 14, 2020 at 8:56 AM ×

Excellent article. Very interesting to read. I really love to read such a nice article. Thanks! keep rocking.
hasil bola
berita olahraga
dunia sport
berita trending
trens berita

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
February 15, 2020 at 6:56 AM ×



hey nat...really want to know why i got sacked by that trainer graham begg?!...but before i do...let me tell you the reason why i walked out of barts...i was pushed out!...no problem there.people can shed light on why i was pushed out..jealously/punting/winners/bart didn't care but was made to bar me from riding any more fast work to appease his arse lickers......
i don't claim to be a saint, but i can tell you every reason why i left a racing stable and every time it was to keep my sanity...but lets'get back to graham.

you may think i have a mouth on me...but our lovely graham has a "sinister" mouth on him , especially towards the "help". he gave me a taste of it one day from across the front lawn as we were both putting on bridles on our horses...it all came from about to do nothing, but i gave him educated reply...he said " how long did it take for you to come up with that" my reply..." well...lets you and i take it to the lawn and i show you how long it took me" he didn't say a word to me for the rest of the day until he knew i was inside a room and he quickly poked his head inside the door and said " you can leave at the end of the week" ..

your welcome too...

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
February 15, 2020 at 8:22 AM ×



i quite like this reminiscing about racing , and since i'm retired from racing and every one seems to have an opinion about me to share than let me share mine.

Pat Murray: Ancient ...one word is suffice. had a lovely wife.

neville voigt: one of the biggest crimes on a race track was nifty moving from the saddle to the trainers pen. he never really wanted to train...but when focused was on par with any trainer on setting a horse for a particular race...but never take a tip from him...nifty nev still carried the "jockey's tipping bible" with him across into the trainers ranks.

Bill Mitchell: Billy was a good guy. His the only trainer I never saw lose the plot about anything until the stable dog got run over by the horse float ( in half ) and spent over 10K (over 25 years ago!)in vet bills to keep it alive. He did lose the plot a little when I think what could've been his best horse got run into by a car. But he show me one day ( amusingly ) the cranbrook boy in him. Bill had just got his big step up in the trainers world when the australian jockey club allowed him his own stable complex on high street. As us staff were living in paid accommodation off track , Billy was moving the stable lads into the stable complex. So with that as you know the house Billy was renting was vacated , but not before the landlord did his inspection. Couple days after the house inspection one of the lads came to my room as i had already moved into the new stable complex...he said to me that Bill was down stairs in his new office and that the landlord was disputing the bond with Billy due to the lights being vandalized in the house, the lad said he told Bill the lights were like that before they moved in, but for clarification, Billy want to asked me if that was the case and the lad wanted me to back up his side of story. seriously though, Billy knew it was all bullshit because he knew i didn't move into the house until the very end of the occupied term when i first joined him. So we both walked into Billy's office and fronted him like a headmaster...it was surreal...he asked me directly if the lights were already vandalized ...i backed up their bullshit story...he knew it. Anyway with that Billy put all of lads that previously lived in the house all up squeezed up stairs with no kitchen. And a recent Somalian immigrate with no previous racehorse experience , straight off the boat and street as the afternoon he come to our gate looking for work we put him on the stable pony bareback and sent him going around the lawn like a camel jockey into the down stairs self utility "king size suite". Every morning i saw Billy walk in that front gate i saw that sweet victory all over Billy face. He begged me not to go to Japan. I worked for him again when I got back and i got my favorite horse straight back..but Billy wasn't the same due to me previously leaving. fair enough too.

we'll leave it there...it gets too deep from there.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
February 16, 2020 at 2:29 AM ×

what did racing teach me?!...well it doesn't make sense to me anymore. sure you can enjoy a day out out at the races...maybe with some luck own a winner...but investing time and money doesn't stack up. you need a least five pro's on the ratings desk for one particular racing province doing programming, form analysis and "late mail". every one of those categories comes with its own nuances that you need to be able to transfer with flexibility from one province to another. The "late mail" category needs to be solid with risk sharing embedded within the transaction. The programming technique has been maxed out on racing...everyone knows about the logistic ratings its just a matter of what and how the variables are created. And the form analysis can be given to overweighting all the above through the various of subjectivity.

all the time spent taking in and overseeing this process for each meeting takes two days leading into and add the racing day to that. for what utility takes two race meetings you can do four different soccer league rounds , throw in a rugby league round along with a rugby union round on any given weekend. plus...you trade the london open for two hours and come back later and trade the chicago open through to the new york open till 11am. with this you don't form analysts watching every minute of every game...you don't need "late mail" and risk sharing liability because the law of averages totally strips out the "odd" game here and there. then you can trade maybe anywhere from 30min to four hours a day during the week. all this from anywhere in the world you please...and believe me...if you know anything about horse racing it is that the degree of reliability with the connecting nodes through the racing paradigm is disproportional to the degree of your location...its just horse racing's own little human nature phenomena. it just doesn't make sense to me anymore. it's such an unreliable game.

Reply
avatar
shopia
admin
February 20, 2020 at 12:16 PM ×

Welcome to our hight quality Mumbai Escort Agency. When you are looking best female escorts in Mumbai then this is right services for you. it may be hard to find and good escort services in entire city which provides cute and energetic escorts in Mumbai that look just good as appeared in pictures or better than their pictures. Sometimes portfolio hides the much deterioration about them. So pictures and physical appearence, both are different things. mumbai is a well-known city around the world.

Model escorts in mumbai

Callgirls in mumbai

Housewifes in mumbai

Mumbai escorts

College girls in mumbai

Reply
avatar
shopia
admin
February 20, 2020 at 12:16 PM ×

Welcome to our hight quality Mumbai Escort Agency. When you are looking best female escorts in Mumbai then this is right services for you. it may be hard to find and good escort services in entire city which provides cute and energetic escorts in Mumbai that look just good as appeared in pictures or better than their pictures. Sometimes portfolio hides the much deterioration about them. So pictures and physical appearence, both are different things. mumbai is a well-known city around the world.

Model escorts in mumbai

Callgirls in mumbai

Housewifes in mumbai

Mumbai escorts

College girls in mumbai

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
February 21, 2020 at 3:25 PM ×

This would be a great time for a new post, plenty to talk about, eh?

Not able to cough one up at the moment but maybe in a month or so. For now, perhaps we can talk Shawn into it? If he can have a go now, and the rest of us can follow up?

LB has been snoozing through 2019 but always with half an eye on the liquidity situation. The Confounded Interest blog has done a good job of keeping one eye on the ball at all times, w.r.t the most important market variable, i.e, the Fed balance sheet.

I will say, just for now, that we are nearing Peak Coronavirus fear, but we are not there yet. With Ebola there was a moment when TLT went parabolic and that was a good fade. We are not yet at that moment but it is coming. We can expect one massive plunge in yields, crude oil and basic materials, semiconductor stocks, probably at the moment the US has its first super-spreader event. Not there yet, but at some point there will be a buying opportunity in energy, China and a selling opportunity in Treasuries. For now, sit tight and enjoy the Death of Oil headlines etc..

Btw, I do not wish to minimize concern about nCoV, SARS2 etc., as an extremely serious global event. It will remain a problem throughout 2020 and 2021. We should all be concerned about it, especially in the ensuing fall and Winter flu season. For now, we are watching the first wave of market panic, and this will run its course in the next few weeks. It is likely there will be multiple waves of virus and market panic, but we may well get a break from both during the summer months,

Reply
avatar
Gus
admin
February 22, 2020 at 2:38 AM ×

Thanks so much, LB ... sage advice.

Reply
avatar
Atm Card
admin
February 24, 2020 at 8:31 AM ×

Get A Blank ATM CARD And Cash Good Money/Funds Pay Your Debt directly today in any ATM machine around you anywhere in the world. It's 100% guaranteed secure with no worries of being caught because the blank card it's already programmed and loaded with good funds in it, in such a way that's not traceable which also have a technique that makes it impossible for the CCTV to detect you, i am not a stupid man that i will come out to the public and start saying what someone have not done. For more info contact Mr john and also on how you are going to get your Card, Order yours today via Email: cryptoatmhacker@gmail.com

WhatsApp contact: +27733798090

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
February 24, 2020 at 1:35 PM ×

Today looks like stage 1 of the coronavirus panic plunge, might be a good day to nibble on things that have already been beaten to death, like China, autos and energy, for example. I don’t think today is Peak Panic but we may be getting closer to that point.

Might be a tough day for some of our friends with their portfolio of TSLA options. Ugly day for $SOX. As soon as Korea outbreak emerged, the semis have been taken behind the woodshed.

Interesting to see F and RNO trade like the world is ending while TSLA is just below its peak. Sometimes extreme divergences like that can be quite elastic for a while and then snap back sharply.

If you think OPEC is going to stand around and watch crude go to $30, you might want to take a cruise on the Diamond Princess. Opec cuts are coming, so the drillers and big oils are probably worth a look this week.

Hoping for a new post soon to bring a bit of structure to the blog, LOL.

For the time being I will return you to your regularly scheduled programming of Mumbai escort agencies, bold Bangalore beauties and Nigerian crypto startups...

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
February 24, 2020 at 3:21 PM ×

Thanks LB!

Reply
avatar
Gus
admin
February 24, 2020 at 3:46 PM ×

Thanks again, LB ... look forward to your next post.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
February 25, 2020 at 6:24 PM ×

VIX bubbling up between 25 and 30. Another puke in the morning, VIX to 30 and maybe we will have seen the worst of this for now.

Note that FXI and EEM are trading decently, perhaps a sign that traders perceive the worst to be over in China. TLT is losing monentum.

Energy is becoming extremely oversold. Unless one is a disciple of Greta, the dividend yields of BP, OXY, SNP, PTR look interesting, the XLE itself also yields higher than the TLT, or indeed TSLA. Sooner or later we will see a rotation out of fear and magical thinking, and into value.

Or not, maybe the momo bubble may have one more leg up, assuming no superspreader event in the US for a while. I will tell you that the news flow isn’t going to improve, but markets can rally even when news flow is static, just on vol selling and short covering.

Back to those Indian escorts, now.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
February 25, 2020 at 9:00 PM ×

VIX already hit 30, the RSI of VIX is 80. Fear is peaking. There is absolutely still room for another puke tomorrow, but most of the weak hands are already out.

("Bad luck, home gamers" - your pal, Jim C)

Oddly enough the unicorn sector has outperformed the spoos and "real economy" things like materials and energy have fared the worst, so that probably tells you that the unicorn bubble isn't quite over, and that BuyStocks will JBTFD once more. More interestingly, FXI and EEM have handily outperformed Spoos and Qs today.

XLE is pretty f*cking oversold here, even as OPEC is making noises about not sitting on their hands, even as Death of Oil headlines start to appear and Cramericans are informed that Big Oil will go the way of Big Tobacco.

You know what we think about that kind of stuff, in terms of investment opportunity, and as I mentioned to MM the other day, Greta is late arriving by solar powered yacht and so is the delivery of my electric hover vehicle so I am off to buy some gas for the (ancient yet reliable) manual petrol vehicle. Crude is sitting on support here, and OPEC know that, of course.

The final tell of the day: gold is already weak, the Treasury auctions weren't the best, shorties beware, there might be an orgy of vol selling overnight, with the usual results in terms of cold steel in the morning.

Not underestimating the coronavirus problem in any way, but the bad news is going to come in waves, not all at once. King Don may try to emulate Canute, sitting by the ocean commanding the virus to go back. I am not being political, it is what it is.

I will close by saying that the bungling by governments has been astonishing, and one can expect that trend to continue worldwide, as the Tyranny of the Incompetent is revealed in all of its glory.

Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
February 25, 2020 at 9:07 PM ×

To Quote a line from The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin "I didn't get where I am today without knowing God moves in mysterious ways."
So how about that correlation between equities and gold?.... asking for a friend

Reply
avatar
Canadian Banker
admin
February 25, 2020 at 9:31 PM ×

Thank you LB. Very glad to hear from you again.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
February 26, 2020 at 2:17 AM ×

LB, thank you for giving us the the lay of the land.

Reply
avatar
Whammer
admin
February 26, 2020 at 6:07 AM ×

Great to see you again LB!

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
February 26, 2020 at 2:29 PM ×

Looking like a bounce today. Wonder if the machines experience Cold Steel?

Early days but vol sellers seem to be appearing. The strength or otherwise of the snapback rally will be revealing. Do not underestimate the ability of the market to achieve even higher levels of irrational exuberance. After all, unicorns are immune to viruses. Aren’t they?

Sometimes these rallies are punctuated by multiple interventions by governments, central banks, OPEC, etc. just sayin’... shorties need to watch their rear when that sort of thing begins.

That’s it from me for a few days. Best to all.

Reply
avatar
Unknown
admin
February 26, 2020 at 3:11 PM ×

@LB: Given that Europe (minus parts of Italy) hasn't even gotten to the stage where supermarkets are getting cleared out and employees are being told to stay home, don't you think even if there is a rally over the next week or two, it won't reach the previous peak nor last too long (i.e., dead cat bounce)? Not to mention that the virus has yet to really hit US soil.

Reply
avatar
David Millar
admin
February 27, 2020 at 6:44 AM ×

Thanks for your well-researched topic. will back soon for a more interesting topic in the future.

Reply
avatar
Atm Card
admin
February 27, 2020 at 7:53 AM ×

Get A Blank ATM CARD And Cash Good Money/Funds Pay Your Debt directly today in any ATM machine around you anywhere in the world. It's 100% guaranteed secure with no worries of being caught because the blank card it's already programmed and loaded with good funds in it, in such a way that's not traceable which also have a technique that makes it impossible for the CCTV to detect you, i am not a stupid man that i will come out to the public and start saying what someone have not done. For more info contact Mr john and also on how you are going to get your Card, Order yours today via Email: cryptoatmhacker@gmail.com

WhatsApp contact: +27733798090

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
February 27, 2020 at 4:16 PM ×

All virus, all the time. We began discussing this outbreak in mid-January in our local environment and nobody wanted to listen. It is very difficult for most humans to think about things that they can’t see or touch.

Those of you who read the Lancet or blogs like ZH etc will be aware that the potential for a global pandemic has been apparent from the beginning. Anyway, the MSM has joined the party, late as always. I think to suggest that the virus has yet to hit US soil is hopeful in the extreme. It is here, has been for weeks. MSM lack the capacity for abstract thought, but even they can read the writing on the wall.

Another wave of panic today, as markets price in the inevitability of outbreaks everywhere, including the US. A second VIX spike above 30 is unusual and gives you a sense of how quickly fear has taken over as the dominant market emotion. There is also the suggestion that it is Bernie and not the virus that has caused everyone to run around with their pants on their heads. I never watch the TV with the sound on but today I listened a little to get a measure of the irrationality now pervading the media. Note that the mood is the exact opposite from the complacency that emanated from the same people a week ago. So, ignoring the spooz noise for the time being, where are we?

Sentiment. Fear dominates, panic is taking hold. The question is, what could happen in the next week or two to depress sentiment further? If we get a drip drip drip of news of the virus in other countries and isolated US cases then you would think that vol selling will get rolling. If we somehow manage to stumble and bumble through March without a major outbreak in a US city we will see the Mother of all Relief Rallies. That will not be the end of the virus story, as we will face a second wave of outbreaks later on, but that is a topic for another day.

Bonds. Obviously, there can be more of this, but at some point one begins to question whether a 1.75% long bond makes any sense at all unless you are German and fleeing negative yields. Not ready to go there yet but we would have to say that TLT has been going parabolic and is approaching extreme overbought conditions.

The RSI on the XLE is around 17, so unless Greta wins the next US election you would think there is some value there. The oil price weakness is showing up in US high yield as well. We have seen a few of these oil dumps and they all end with OPEC production cuts.

We haven’t touched the spooz, but we do think emerging markets are outperforming, and we are adding a bit there. China sentiment is improving and FXI will likely lead the bounce.

My guess is that any bounce in Spooz is indeed of the Dead Cat variety but even those can be sizable and vicious in speed. Watch out for the 3% up days, as most of us will recall they are a feature of Bear Market rallies, and fairly diagnostic as they represent massive covering of shorts under conditions where a large scale shift has taken place from dip buying to rip selling. If we see a more measured recovery from the lows, whenever that may be, it is more likely that a bull market type dynamic will resume.

Watch out for the coordinated central bank and OPEC policy announcements, next week or even over the weekend.

Apologies if this seems excessively calm or rational. Six weeks ago I was accused of hysteria. Can’t win.

Reply
avatar
River
admin
February 28, 2020 at 2:48 AM ×

Came here HOPING to See You. Thanks LB.
Even our NLY is Selling- Don't you think there will be a interest rate CUT coming Soon
Btw the way double whammy for Canada
1) Slow down in China will slow down resource buying
2) The Pipeline issues - The Natives Protests Shut down major Rail lines last week. They are now moving
3) The Virus fears. Vancouver, TO have reported cases. India(China's neighbor is most likely hiding) - Many Snow birds from Asia coming back in April could bring back infection.
4) Repatriating Passengers from that Cruise Ship and Chinese Canadians from Wuhan was a big challenge. They are isolated at Military bases for couple of weeks.
I hope Canadian Liberal Govt survives the Challenges.
WHO - World Health Org is incompetent, I bet the Doc is a political appointee - Chicken without a head

Reply
avatar
River
admin
February 28, 2020 at 3:00 AM ×

Mish is saner compare to ZH
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/

Reply
avatar
JohnL
admin
February 28, 2020 at 7:15 PM ×

River, I think that being the epicenter of the North American SERs out break, Health Canada has learned a ton. Should be able to handle things. Health Ontario has tested more people then have been tested in the entire continental US. 500+ to 300+ I believe was the last. Count.
All the rest you listed is right on point. .......buckle up.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
February 28, 2020 at 10:11 PM ×

Well, that was interesting.... the coronavirus news rumbles on, and we have thoughts about that, but first of all, this is not the time, and second, what people think about the news isn’t going to make any one any money. So for the time being, let’s ignore all of that and focus on the behavior of markets and the punters who love them. Price action and sentiment review...

First off, sentiment measures. VIX almost 50. CNN fear and greed I think was at 8 at one point, which is extreme fear. Make that EXTREME FEAR for the folks at home watching TV. Headless chickens were in full view this week, and people on TV who clearly had put their pants on their heads. Generally speaking you would be thinking about buying that, if you are Uncle Warren, be greedy when others are fearful etc.. as this was the deepest fear sentiment since the recent Leftback Lows of December 2018. Not quite the same level of conviction here as yet, though. We haven’t touched the spooz, mindful here of MM’s advice regarding a Falling Knife, that the best way to catch one is to wait until it hits the floor and then walk over and pick it up.

This morning was a bit TEOTWAWKI* with a huge gap down at the open followed by a 10am low, which is also usually a buy signal. We haven’t used this for a while but we would suggest that it is time for TWINE trades, because after all Josephine Sixpack has to get the kids from school and fill up the tank of the SUV. The usual TWINE** trade, for novice readers, is long energy, short Treasuries.

[*The End Of The World As We Know It. ** The World Is Not Ending]

With that in mind, we note that the XLE finished the day green and there was some very funky screaming short covering action in the drillers today, some of which rocketed 20% off the morning lows. Never a dull moment with these names, like DO, RIG and VAL. This was not unexpected as the XLE was at one point sporting a super oversold label with RSI of 17, and trading around 12 year (GFC) price lows. Considering the credit spigot is open, that seems remarkable, and led to us removing the Kevlar Gloves* in the middle of the week to try to catch a few high velocity projectiles.

[* MM approved wear for Falling Knife Catching, not approved for BSL-3 or 4 laboratory work]

To quote Uncle Warren again, Price is what you pay, and Value is what you get. Right now, the energy sector is value and the price is lower than it was last week. Those drillers have an uncanny habit of sensing upcoming OPEC statements. I wonder if Uncle Warren was loading up on his favorites like COP and so on? He has uncanny instincts about these things also, and looking at the yields in BP, RDS, OXY, SLB, COP and many more, you might be tempted to join him in being greedy when others are fearful. Certainly the mood has changed from mid Feb when the spectacle of punters buying TSLA and SPCE calls on margin was truly terrifying.

We continue to like the EEM, which traded fairly constructively from Wednesday onwards. This presumably reflects the fact that the Death of China, like that of Mark Twain, has been greatly exaggerated.

So what did we do today? Not a lot, we were already in energy up to our neck, nibbled on EEM, and Just for Old Times sake, put on a TWINE trade into the close by fading the spike in TLT, nothing big just a few March and April TLT puts. In case the world doesn’t end after all....

Hope old BuyStocks is doing OK, one half wonders if the expression of even the slightest constructive sentiment might bring out abusive comments from someone called SellStocks...

Selling of things like NLY today may have been forced liquidation, even the preferreds dipped below 25, that may represent selling anything that can be sold, or may just be rotation out of perceived safer havens. Anyway, we ignored it all, as one should.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
February 28, 2020 at 10:33 PM ×

Now, what about the coronavirus news? Well, that’s another story. One of the many reasons the markets sold off so hard and fast this week is that they were overbought and everyone was long, but another important factor was the spectacle of various governments and organizations revealing themselves to be grossly incompetent, especially the Abe government (Join us on cruise of Yokohama harbor!), the WHO (this is NOT a pandemic, or a Dead Parrot), and the CDC (masks? test kits? who knew?). Honorable mention goes to the Iranian officials who were dying at the podium. Even low budget villains like Dr Evil and Goldmember would surely have worn a mask before infecting half of Tehran...

The best guess at the moment is that several countries stumble into the summer and avoid major epidemics, while others get hammered, but a second wave of infections is almost an invariant feature of pandemics, so the real challenge may come next winter. One or two countries will come out of this looking good, with leaders who make timely decisions and wise informed choices that save lives, like the Swiss, for example, closing public gatherings for a while. By using a bit of imagination and getting ahead of things, some countries will build confidence. Those who choose to react only when confronted with a catastrophe will be late, time and time again, and it will cost lives. Let us all hope for good decisions, and perhaps some mutations leading toward less virulence.

Only one thing is certain for now, the world is not going to end before Monday morning, and I am fairly sure that we will be reminded of that by some of our world leaders over the weekend. Pray for them because most of them are clueless tools. Stay safe out there.

Reply
avatar
River
admin
February 28, 2020 at 11:59 PM ×

@JohnL and LB thanks for the replies. Stay safe buddies

Reply
avatar
LENDING TREE
admin
March 1, 2020 at 9:57 AM ×

ΔΑΝΕΙΟΔΟΤΙΚΑ ΔΑΝΕΙΑ INC.


Έχετε επιδοθεί από πού να πάρετε δάνεια, απορριφθεί από τις τράπεζες, και τώρα απογοητευμένος από πού να πάρει ένα δάνειο. Το LENDINGTREE θα σας δώσει το δάνειο που περιμένετε. επικοινωνήστε μαζί μας στη διεύθυνση lendingtreegroupinc@gmail.com.

Ένα δάνειο για την αποπληρωμή του χρέους σας εύκολα;
Ένα δάνειο για να ξεκινήσετε το είδος της επιχείρησης που θέλετε να κάνετε;
Ένα δάνειο για εκπαιδευτικούς σκοπούς;
Ένα δάνειο για να αγοράσει ένα διαμέρισμα;
Ένα δάνειο για να αγοράσει αυτό το αυτοκίνητο όνειρο;

Μην κοιτάτε ξανά, η LENDING TREE INC προσφέρει δάνεια
Δεν υπάρχουν κρυφές πληρωμές από 1.000 έως 20.000.000 EUR / USD / POUNDS
Σε πολύ χαμηλό επιτόκιο 3%
Δημιουργήσαμε ένα δίκτυο δανεισμού και
οικονομική βοήθεια σε πελάτες παγκοσμίως.

Προσπαθούμε να διατηρήσουμε το πρότυπο αριστείας μας Εμείς
προσφέρουμε τις υπηρεσίες μας οποιαδήποτε στιγμή της ημέρας.
Δίνουμε ένα δάνειο σε όσους χρειάζονται οικονομική βοήθεια από το 1 έως το
20 χρόνια

Οι υπηρεσίες μας περιλαμβάνουν επίσης

. πραγματική χρηματοδότηση
. επενδυτής ακινήτων
. δάνεια για την κατασκευή
. δάνεια εκκίνησης επιχειρήσεων
. στεγαστικά δάνεια
. Η καταναλωτική πίστη,
. Δάνεια FHA
. προσωπικά δάνεια
. τα δάνεια αυτοκινήτων
κ.λπ. Εάν χρειάζεστε ένα δάνειο ή οικονομική βοήθεια επικοινωνήστε μαζί μας από

email: lendingtreegroupinc@gmail.com

email: lending-tree@outlook.com

whatsapp: +1 (213)419-2419

Ζεστή σκέψη

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
March 2, 2020 at 3:46 AM ×

Not only has the world not ended yet, but i believe we may at long last have a PPT sighting, in fact we seem to have a Sunday night special, this after the BoJ promised to, “do whatever it takes” in order to guarantee stability. I suspect this has to do with the +2¥ day we had on Friday and the prospect of imminent disorderly carry trade unwind. Another couple of those and we would be in the Crash zone.

Who knows what will happen by the morning, but you can’t say we didn’t warn you about an intervention. Goldman is especially fond of saying things to get theIr clients and other unwary punters (aka “muppets”) offside in thinly traded illiquid markets, before unleashing the Dogs of War. Those wascally wascals waited until a lot of panicked punters had piled in short again tonight before they activated the ramp.

Mr Shorty, beware the Cold Steel in the morning!

Reply
avatar
March 2, 2020 at 4:55 AM ×

CROWNQQ I AGEN BANDARQ I ADUQ ONLINE I DOMINOQQ TERBAIK I DOMINO99 ONLINE TERBESAR

Yuk Buruan ikutan bermain di website CrownQQ

Sekarang CROWNQQ Memiliki Game terbaru Dan Ternama loh...

9 permainan :
=> Poker
=> Bandar Poker
=> Domino99
=> BandarQ
=> AduQ
=> Sakong
=> Capsa Susun
=> Bandar 66
=> Perang Baccarat (NEW GAME)

=> Bonus Refferal 20%
=> Bonus Turn Over 0,5%
=> Minimal Depo 20.000
=> Minimal WD 20.000
=> 100% Member Asli
=> Pelayanan DP & WD 24 jam
=> Livechat Kami 24 Jam Online
=> Bisa Dimainkan Di Hp Android
=> Di Layani Dengan 5 Bank Terbaik
=> 1 User ID 9 Permainan Menarik

Ayo gabung sekarang juga hanya dengan
mengklick daftar crownqq

Link Resmi CrownQQ:
RATUAJAIB.COM
RATUAJAIB.NET
RATUAJAIB.INFO

BACA JUGA BLOGSPORT KAMI:
BLOG ARTIKEL
CROWNWIN
CERITA DEWASA
Agen BandarQ


Info Lebih lanjut Kunjungi :
WHATSAPP : +855882357563
LINE : CS CROWNQQ
TELEGRAM : +855882357563

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
March 2, 2020 at 6:17 PM ×

Thank you for the posts LB.

I, too, am waiting for a Cold Steel rally but this does not seems like it. There's a good dispersion of reds along with the greens in this SPX bounce from 2940 to 3020.

NIH's Fauci said, "WE'RE DEALING WITH CLEARLY AN EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE T HAT HAS “NOW REACHED OUTBREAK PROPORTIONS AND LIKELY PANDEMIC PROPORTIONS.” Now how much of the Corona's impact is baked in already now?

What will the UST yield curve look like if Bernie comes out as victor of Super Tuesday? Would definitely appreciate it if the adults in the room could offer their thoughts(LB, Nico, John, skr, cbus, eddie, moniker, even amps!).

Similar to LB's thinking, may be good to add some large caps, energy, prefs, and utilities (F, BUD, AMLP, XLU, PFF.








Reply
avatar
Gus
admin
March 2, 2020 at 6:58 PM ×

https://yragharris.com/2020/03/01/tumult/

Hour-long interview with Bianco, Boockvar, Rosenberg, and Harris. They are far from sanguine! Cash is King. Look at long-bond yields in Italy, Spain, and Portugal ... amazing?

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
March 3, 2020 at 2:32 AM ×

Don’t bend over in front of the steamroller, this may be a bear market rally but they are famously vicious, and the initial bungee bounce often reaches close to where Mr Market jumped off the cliff. Just sit back and enjoy the commotion.

At no time have I said that the nCoV wasn’t very serious, and the super Tuesday discussions will be interesting but for now focus on that fire hose of liquidity that is being pointed at you... they don’t do these things for fun, they do it to eviscerate Mr Shorty, so mind how you go.

I do think today’s action I mean a 4% up day, seriously, that was Cold Steel and we will accept a few nods of approval, upvotesp from the Bangalore escort agencies perhaps, for making that call on Friday.

Only good thing about worsening virus dynamics is that it forces the clowns who run things to do something and bring in people with skills and knowledge. This is where we are at the moment.

Reply
avatar
Eddie
admin
March 3, 2020 at 9:51 AM ×

A few random thoughts way less articulate than what LB will provide soon…

Corona is still spreading fast, especially outside China. Looks like it is contained in China but then we know what to think about Chinese statistics. Even when all factories are up and running again (80% are as of this morning) and everyone is back to work over there (58% of all workers are right now) it will take a couple of months until the supply chains are re-established. A container ship needs between 20 and 30 days to travel from China to Europe, so expect some rumblings over hte next months. Just in time production and stuff… nevertheless, the world will not end™.

However, this is rather deflationary than inflationary imo. People travel less, buy less stuff, new iPhones moulder in the shelves, you get the idea. For the time being I am happy with my long bond position but once the MMT train gets rolling (and to me it is rather a question of when, not if) I will grab my physical gold and run for the hills like these gentlemen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86URGgqONvA

Energy looks interesting and I will try to do some bottom fishing just in case. BTU might be interesting for those who think that ESG is just another fad of central bankers looking for an occupation. After all, if you can’t get inflation up to where you want it why not switch gears and try something different where you have no track record of near constant failure? Probably not a buy yet, but things change fast these days.

Besides that I lean back and watch the rally… *nodding approval to LB*

Reply
avatar
Gus
admin
March 3, 2020 at 7:01 PM ×

Well that was a quick take-back of yesterday's rally. Sell the news with a face-ripper?

Reply
avatar
River
admin
March 3, 2020 at 10:48 PM ×

Does anyone know the real number of deaths from seasonal flue vs Corona virus? How many people died today from that Tornado in Nashville - 22 vs Corona Virus - 9 . The Corano virus deaths were in Nursing Home - elderly? I am not saying people shouldn't be vigilant

Next door neighbor to China - India hasn't disclosed any Coronavirus deaths. Just a few cases. Why so - May be they are hiding the numbers - or they have immunity due to unsanitary conditions or most live in open homes OR the Weather is getting hotter - Flue virus are killed in hot weather. but we don't know about this one -

Reply
avatar
Eddie
admin
March 4, 2020 at 12:54 PM ×

Seasonal flu:

"The worst episode in the past decade, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), was the 2017-2018 season, with an estimated 45 million cases, and 61,000 fatalities. During the 2019-2020 season, through February, the CDC estimates that there have been about 32 million cases of the seasonal flu in the U.S., though that figure will rise somewhat further in the coming months."

This translates into a mortality rate of 0.136% for 2017/2018.

Source: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/observations/obs200301/

JHU CSSE posts daily corona virus data on GitHub:

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

The WHO estimated a higher mortality lately, namely 3.4% instead of the previous c. 2%.

Reply
avatar
River
admin
March 4, 2020 at 2:34 PM ×

Biden lifting Stocks MORE than the FED could have done - Bernie scared the hell out of billionaires more than the Coronavirus?

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
March 6, 2020 at 2:27 PM ×

Question for LB - do we have the makings for The Big One here?

UST 10s and 30s yields are diving at a rate that suggests there's something big brewing.

Reply
avatar
Gus
admin
March 6, 2020 at 6:19 PM ×

Only 11 years ago today the market bottomed on an intra-day basis at 666 ... is LB going to call the "COVID-19 Bottom" today? :)

Reply
avatar
River
admin
March 6, 2020 at 8:14 PM ×

@Gus I came here to ask the same question. LOL
Where are Karen and I-Man etc?

Reply
avatar
River
admin
March 6, 2020 at 8:52 PM ×

People ARE RECOVERING from it. I wonder How it's different from a bad case of a flue Outbreak?
In Canada it came from China and Iran. While a great care was taken to quarantine Chinese Canadians and that Cruise ship repatriated, Iran Import was BOTCHED!!! That's where the Ontario and Quebec problem came from.
The Ministry of Health said Friday that four more cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed in Ontario, bringing the total in the province to 26.

Of those 26, four people have recovered, officials say.

The ministry says one of the cases announced Friday includes a man in his 40s who recently returned from Las Vegas.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/coronavirus-toronto-covid-19-1.5488057

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
March 6, 2020 at 8:56 PM ×

"Only 11 years ago today the market bottomed on an intra-day basis at 666 ... is LB going to call the "COVID-19 Bottom" today"

Damn, Gus. I did not think about that. Pretty cool coincidence!

Whether we rip UP from here or continue back down, I am glad we are re-pricing things again. It's been too long.

Reply
avatar
River
admin
March 6, 2020 at 11:07 PM ×

Perhaps China hid it for LONG time and the Virus is ALREADY here.They ONLY start reporting when they couldn't hide it. Lot of people got sick with flue - Who has it We may never know Unless ALL of us are tested for it. Some countries like India - a next door neighbor and Egypt( who like Italy) also has tourists from All over the World - How come THEY aren't reporting any deaths or major break outs?

Reply
avatar
River
admin
March 6, 2020 at 11:09 PM ×

United States Flue season numbers so far:

This Year’s Flu Season Has Been Worse Than Last Year, CDC Says
February 20, 2020
In the U.S., there have been at least 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu so far this season.
https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/02/20/2020-flu-season-cdc/

Reply
avatar
River OCean
admin
March 6, 2020 at 11:29 PM ×

Sorry about writing too much on this subject - trying to clear my mind.

The Flu Season in the US
While seasonal influenza (flu) viruses are detected year-round in the United States, flu viruses are most common during the fall and winter. The exact timing and duration of flu seasons can vary, but influenza activity often begins to increase in October. Most of the time flu activity peaks between December and February, although activity can last as late as May.

The figure below shows peak flu activity in the United States by month for the 1982-1983 through 2017-2018 flu seasons. The “peak month of flu activity” is the month with the highest percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for influenza virus infection during that influenza season. During this 36-year period, flu activity most often peaked in February (15 seasons), followed by December (7 seasons), January (6 seasons) and March (6 seasons).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm

Reply
avatar
River
admin
March 8, 2020 at 12:54 AM ×

As of Friday, the American coronavirus death toll reached 11, with 10 of those in Washington. Most of those who died were residents of Life Care Center, a nursing home in Kirkland, a suburb east of Seattle.

According to the Associated Press, the state fined Life Care $67,000 US last April over infection-control deficiencies following two flu outbreaks that affected 17 patients and staff.

Nursing homes are some of the toughest places to contain an outbreak, as the people who live there often already have compromised immune systems. They also live and socialize in close quarters.
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/day6/what-canadian-nursing-homes-are-learning-from-the-covid-19-outbreak-in-washington-state-1.5486651

Reply
avatar
River
admin
March 8, 2020 at 12:56 AM ×

After Russia refused to cut, Saudi plans an all out price war targeting shale and Canadian oil sands
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/saudis-plan-big-oil-output-hike-beginning-all-out-price-war?srnd=premium-canada

Reply
avatar
Eddie
admin
March 8, 2020 at 7:21 AM ×

River, I wonder what an all out war will bring if there are no buyers... which is what it currently looks like.

Let's see whether this mess spreads into the corporate bond market. If so we are in for some really deep sh*t. I will come up with the first price target while you guys get the tomatoes ready...
Once this is over the S&P will end up in the 1200 area (based on long term averages). Since there might be some overshooting to the downside I call for 999 (as a nice counterpart to the 2009 low and because I like the band). *runs for cover*

Reply
avatar
Gus
admin
March 8, 2020 at 5:01 PM ×

https://www.ft.com/content/d700b71a-6122-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

Saudi Arabia has launched an aggressive oil price war targeting its biggest rivals after Russia refused to join production cuts with Opec, in a move that threatens to swamp the crude market with supplies just as the coronavirus outbreak hits demand. The kingdom plans to pump more than 10m barrels a day next month while announcing unprecedented discounts of almost 20 per cent in key markets, in an apparent attempt to punish Russia, while squeezing the US shale industry and other higher cost producers.

Shares in Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, dropped almost 9 per cent on Sunday, falling below its December stock market listing price. The broader Saudi stock market sank more than 8 per cent.

Russia has built up a $170bn national wealth fund from excess oil revenues in recent years and believes it can tap that to offset any short-term price war, despite crude plunging close to its budget break even price of around $42 a barrel.

Mikhail Leontiev, press secretary for Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, said that the relationship with Saudi Arabia had become “meaningless”.

The true result of the arrangement is that the total volume of oil that was reduced as a result of the repeated extension of the Opec+ agreement was completely and quickly replaced in the world market with American shale oil,” he said in a statement to state-owned news agency TASS.

Traders and analysts have warned an all-out price war could see oil prices fall to $30 a barrel or lower, bringing back memories of the last time Saudi Arabia opened the taps in 2014.

Reply
avatar
River
admin
March 8, 2020 at 5:41 PM ×

Million times Agree with Elon Musk: "The coronavirus panic is dumb"

Could it be WORSE than the Last flue season?
February 20, 2020
In the U.S., there have been at least 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths from flu so far this season. - CDC

The WHO's director General is INCOMPETENT. He was complacent at the beginning then became an alarmist causing immeasurable damage to the World economy. China should be punished for hiding the outbreak

As a Canadian citizen of course I am worried about oil tanking. BUT Alberta COULD have prepared better. Norway saved over U$Trillion by charging higher royalties, while Alberta's CON-Servative govt was asleep at the wheel. Dumb Albertans voted them in AGAIN

Alberta and Norway: Two oil powers, worlds apart - The Globe and Mail
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/european-business/norways-sovereign-wealth-fund/article25973060/

Reply
avatar
Eddie
admin
March 9, 2020 at 12:55 PM ×

SPX almost 5% down. I am sure our American friends will learn at some point in time that circuit breakers based on relative levels are no panacea... once thery tried everything else. Today's opening should be interesting.

The liquidity hose got hosed and the bottom fell out on energy which means I got filled and lost a couple of percent immediately. Should have listened to LB that the best way to catch a falling knife is to wait until it hits the floor and then pick it up... anyway, one more try.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
March 9, 2020 at 1:26 PM ×

This is messy. Not sure why the Saudis are launching the bazooka at themselves... now we have a 3¥ move.

Stay safe, and stay liquid, my friends.

We are now watching the consequence of passive investment, ETF driven markets etc... but there is another story for sure, someone fairly big is getting killed out there today, it is always the same story, leverage creates vulnerability and then the sharks circle.

Trump was actually right, the dollar was too strong, but that is going to be corrected...

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
March 9, 2020 at 2:36 PM ×

A few TLT puts and XLE calls in hand from the morning carnage, you have to have a few sanity trades. Keep em small, though, friends.

Knife catching in equities on days like this can be hazardous. As MM has taught us, days like this generate a lot of margin calls that can take a week to play out, so don’t be surprised to see signs of forced liquidation around 3pm everyday this week.

Anyone seen LQD? HYG? Ugly. Days like this are when that stack of TIP, AGG and cash is as good as gold, or in fact better today. Even REIT preferreds sold off under 25, keep an eye on that as an index of forced liquidation but also for when the bargain shopping starts,

Vix 60. TLT 180. Something to tell the grandchildren. This usually signals capitulation, surely the peak in Fear, i.e. VIX and TLT, but it may not be the bottom in equities, once Mr Margin starts his work.

I think Intesa and Fiat are cheap, but they may will probably get cheaper this week. Italy is being hit very hard.

Central banks are like, well, you are on your own now. Eventually the BoJ will be forced to sell yen but they should buy EM FX not USD, which needs to find its own level.

Reply
avatar
Whammer
admin
March 9, 2020 at 6:26 PM ×

In equities, we're still above the low from May 2019, and considerably above the December 2018 dip bottom. Seems like testing December 2018 ought to be in play.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
March 9, 2020 at 7:24 PM ×

Good spot, Whammer.

Yes. I had been looking at the 2018 Christmas Eve Powell Bottom, and I think that is a very decent call given that we still have to work through the issues of the mechanical aspects of settling ETFs, some of which contain illiquid components, plus the margin calls discussed above and other forms of deleveraging that have been set in motion.

As an old hand observed recently, the problem with portfolio management in bear markets isn’t necessarily what assets you own, it is the other people who own those assets.

Today was a rerun of 9/11, in a way. Saudis involved again, launching another Pearl Harbor style attack. Thankfully no fatalities this time. Next time MBS and Vlad want to arm wrestle, it would be better if they went into the woods to do it.

I imagine Trump is giving Powell the business on the phone and requesting one heckuva big Bazooka. At least the USD is lower, we need that to continue to relieve liquidity issues, and JPY needs to weaken also. M m m m m My Kuroda?

Reply
avatar
Gus
admin
March 9, 2020 at 9:06 PM ×

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/think-its-bad-now-wait-a-month-says-hedge-fund-manager-kyle-bass-2020-03-09

Kyle Bass interview ...

Reply
avatar
River
admin
March 12, 2020 at 12:39 AM ×

OK So WHY did we lose $TRILLIONS:
From CBC - Canadian Broadcasting Corporation: How to know if you have Covid -19?

About 80 per cent of people will not get really sick from this," Dr. Samir Gupta, a respirologist, told CBC News. "It'll be like the common cold: sniffles, sore throat, maybe a fever, maybe some body aches."

The only way to confirm COVID-19 is with a lab test. Symptoms may appear as soon as two days after exposure or for as long as 14 days after exposure.

What should you do if you have symptoms?

If you are under 50 years old and otherwise healthy, just stay home and take care of yourself. Definitely don't go to hospital, says Dr. Andrew Morris, an infectious disease specialist at Mt. Sinai Hospital in Toronto.

"The hospital's like the worst place for anyone other than people who are really sick and who will need hospitalization. Just being infected with a viral infection is not a reason to go to hospital."

But it is a good reason if you are older, have a compromised immune system, or are experiencing shortness of breath.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/novel-coronavirus-symptoms-1.5438137

Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
March 12, 2020 at 11:34 AM ×

I am looking at this with tunnel vision - now I am not saying I'm always right but from a technical view I'd be in the ballpark. I highlighted before that spoo's needed to retrace to 2500 before going on to 3000+. It never happened and spoo's overshot by a couple of hundred pts.
By the time we get to 2500 I think, as LB eluded to,all the margin calls should have been cleared out and all these crazy intra/inter asset class shenanigans with it.

Decision is yours.

Reply
avatar
Gus
admin
March 12, 2020 at 2:40 PM ×

"Money markets are now expecting another 100 bps of easing from the Fed by next week taking the benchmark policy interest rates to zero after a hefty half point rate cut last week."

Reply
avatar
cowboy
admin
March 12, 2020 at 4:25 PM ×

Hope Nico's having fun

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
March 13, 2020 at 5:12 PM ×

We had a feeling the bottom wasn’t in, and it probably isn’t yet for the spooz or junk bonds. Yesterday was something else, best to just watch in awe. Phew. As Ritholtz used to say, don’t just do something, sit there!

Yesterday was a good day to do nothing. Remember the lesson from 2008, peak fear in terms of vix was October, but the Bottom was later. Not convinced we are there yet because of all the margin calls that were triggered this week.

Peak VIX may lie ahead, but the bottom is in for yields, I am sure, and we made some money shorting TLT off the spike to 180.

Capitulation is when you see babies go out with the bathwater, and a good index of this is when they sell preferred, munis, Treasuries and TIPS, you name It, it was all on sale yesterday. Total liquidation. Risk parity funds and machine trading are a big part of what happened.

The NY Fed actions today are essentially a bailout for risk parity, and remember that includes all those stupid timed retirement funds that are derivatives of 60:40. Another day or two of that and money markets would break, Mnuchin knows better and so does Powell, so they had to act, and they will do so again if they have to.

If you were going to start buying, the preferreds look like a good place to start. REIT preferred are trading at 20 or below everywhere you look, in some cases BELOW GFC and housing crisis levels. Oil majors also look compelling. The fire sale may persist for a while, if you fancy the opportunity, be aware of late day liquidation and mind how you go. Remember to observe your rules on position size, we have a 5% cap on any individual name.

High yield bonds don’t look attractive yet, or munis. I would not be rushing in to buy the spooz today, let’s wait for the end of day margin calls, and see how it is processed. Ideally you would like to see higher lows made before adding long exposure. Punt with options if you want to feel it out so as to limit exposure.

Somewhere on a beach, Nico is having a blast. BuyStocks, perhaps less so.

Reply
avatar
River
admin
March 13, 2020 at 6:39 PM ×

COVID - 19 babies are coming. 2 biggest provinces in Canada - Quebec and Ontario closed schools, Colleges and Universities, daycare centers, gatherings of more than 250 people. Stay home if you don't have to go outside. Some are asking to bar international flights. But China seems to have contained the Virus. Apple opened stores there yesterday.

"China’s economy, meanwhile, has been recovering. “Within China, there is a cautious desire to get back to business as usual, but the bigger question would be whether demand for Chinese exports from other countries can keep up to pace, as it’s their turn now to scramble to cope with the outbreak,” says Keith Tan, senior managing director of steel and scrap at S&P Global Platts.
Here’s how copper has weathered the COVID-19 economic storm. March 13, 2020 at 12:18 p.m. ET
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-copper-has-weathered-the-covid-19-economic-storm-2020-03-13
New cases in China have slowed, but climbed in other parts of the world. On Thursday, China reported only 26 new confirmed cases, while Italy’s total was at 2,313.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
March 13, 2020 at 9:22 PM ×

LOL. No wonder Mnuchin looked pleased with himself this morning. The PPT was under instructions to buy everything as soon as Trump began to speak. A bit of a shock from the rear for Mr Shorty, especially when they pulled out the SPR gambit. Nice. You have to laugh.

So a >10% down day and a 9% up day, this is not the stuff of bull markets. Perhaps the peak is in for VIX but we are still at VIX > 50, those margin calls are still out there and we have the FED and monthly OpEx ahead next week. Caution for US equity punters.

Elsewhere there are plenty of places to look for cheap stocks. Italy, China and the UK, for starters. Priced for the apocalypse, even China which is already in a slow recovery.

Just to point out that funding problems persist and the DOLLAR IS TOO HIGH. So it is up to the FED to address liquidity issues.

Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
March 13, 2020 at 9:38 PM ×

In other News: "You guys pump it and we will buy it." (Of course we are talking about Oil here nothing else). Trump to Saudi.

Reply
avatar
Gus
admin
March 13, 2020 at 10:49 PM ×

Thanks once again for the commentary, LB ... always pithy and appreciated. It could be a long slog to the election in November ... low oil price, CV-19, and election uncertainty should cause some continuing volatility. Perhaps 2020 is the year to sit out in cash! :)

Reply
avatar
«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 424   Newer›   Newest»