What Can Field of Dreams Teach Us About Corn And Trading Macro?

Last night I wasted Field of Dreams with the kids. Plenty of complaints before the start. One wanted to watch Avengers, another didn’t want to watch a sports movie. The other one was opposed to the entire endeavor. 


They came around pretty quick. But here was my big takeaway: I’m on the verge of becoming a naturalized citizen in the commodity world--I couldn’t stop thinking about how all the farmers were appalled and outraged when Kevin Costner dug up his corn to build the baseball field. And then there was the clearly disastrous financial implications, where this decision put his farm on the verge of bankruptcy. 

I had questions. 1) how much corn did he dig up? 2) how much revenue did he forego, in absolute terms and relative to the size of the farm? 3) Given a few assumptions, was this really a farm-wrecking decision, or was this Hollywood stuff? 

In 1987 many farms in Iowa were between 250-500 acres, and this same data shows a husband/wife team could have eked out a living managing such farm. Let's assume this was a 250 acre farm.

The average value per acre in Iowa was $875 in 1987, around the depth of the US farm crisis. A 250-acre farm could have been had for around $220,000. Lets call it $280k with a modest farm house on the property. Putting say, $60k down on such a property was certainly within reach for a college educated, dual income couple in their mid-30s that has been working and saving for 10-15 years.

So 250 acres of corn, yielding 120 bushels nets you 30,000 bushels of corn. Lets say Kevin Costner is a particularly crafty basis trader and he gets $2/bushel for his corn. He grosses $60,000.  The 1987 census report above suggests such a farm might generate $20-$30k in net income--enough to live on if you’re into the lifestyle--but there were many farms during that time that were losing money.  Bankruptcy was certainly on the mind of every US farmer in the mid-late 80s. 

Now, what about this baseball field? A major league baseball field is around 2.5 acres. 


But with foul territory and some residual space for bleachers, you’re probably looking at another acre. But no more than 4.5 acres total, even if you add in a few parking spaces. 

Let's say Kevin Costner dug up four acres of corn. That’s less than $1000 in foregone revenue in the year he dug it up (it probably had some residual silage value!) and in the new crop year when Shoeless Joe finally showed up. 

So our hero gave up $1000 out of $60,000 in revenue, and maybe $30,000 in net income. Let’s add on another $1000 for the infield dirt, the grass he planted, and the backstop fence.  Despite the gossiping and murmuring of the other farmers and their wives, he certainly could have billed it as a community service--and heck, even written it off on his taxes--since presumably he didn’t just let the field sit there..he let the local farm-kid teams play on it while he was waiting for whatever was supposed to happen. 

An aggressive financial decision, but one easily justified by hearing a voice say, “If you build it, he will come.” 

Kevin Costner made one crazy, totally unjustifiable decision: he lit the field!! 


This, is what would have bankrupted his farm. This is the decision that would have had his smarmy brother-in-law questioning his sanity.  Lighting the field today would easily get you into six digits, and would certainly have been out of reach for a financially strapped family farmer in the midst of an agricultural crisis.

Sure, it made for the coolest scene in the movie. 
But completely implausible.  

Here’s a few light-hearted takeaways for market analysis: 

Question assumptions. We all have a cognitive bias to buy into what we’re being told. It’s called “Truth Default Theory”. It’s what makes movies work….but it often turns into a trap in markets. 

Sometimes the trade is not where you think. Everyone jumped on Kevin Costner for digging up his corn--but it was the lights that were financially reckless. 

Everyone loves a story.  Many trades are long on “story” because stories sell. You’re not going to get your boss to buy into upsizing your trade because of your spreadsheet. You need a story.

But….every story needs data.  Stories without data are just that, Hollywood stories. A good story combined with solid data can go a long way. 

But most important:
Be open to changing your mind.  I didn’t mention this above, but the key point of the movie is when the fussy pants brother-in-law has his epiphany. This was a man that was deep into his own trade to buy Kevin’s farm. But he changed his mind. That this was done only with divine intervention is irrelevant! Too often we get wedded to ideas and refuse to accept the metal cost of accepting that we were wrong and changing course. 

Love your ideas, but don’t be afraid to set them free. 


Newest
Previous
Next Post »

84 comments

Click here for comments
September 30, 2019 at 7:13 AM ×



Well, you said you'd love to hear our ideas...

2020 American election vote for trumpy aka "((chinese bookie in the oval office))".


"Make America Gamble Again"

Reply
avatar
September 30, 2019 at 9:05 AM ×



its monday arvo here...amps is sliding down the tree of horror branches...

amps needs to set the marketplace straight around here as he sick of blocking out the subliminal messages that he still till this day sees swaying back and forth upon the podium...let's help out the easts/souths sydney ((mob)) get over their weekend.

ffs...i did not take your jacket! ( get a life...take someone's else charlie)

ffs...stop bringing archer off the bench ( "BIASED"...and still a good excuse 20 years later!!!)

ffs...you pal and matey and friends...bad fuckin luck!...you guys are jonahs...i don't care what you do...just get a life without me in it.


Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
October 1, 2019 at 4:06 AM ×

Hi Shawn, I'm a bit confused as to the point you are trying to make. Are you sugg8ing that one of best years for macro traders is coming to abrupt end? Are you suggesting the boat is lopsided? Are you suggesting that volatility is making a comeback(traders paradise)? Are you suggesting profit talking will be early this year? Or is it a soul cleansing exercise that has to be done to release the beast.
Somehow I think it's a bit of all them.

Reply
avatar
October 4, 2019 at 2:56 PM ×



its friday night here...amps is settling in with his favorite omen for this weekends adventures...


ffs...why don't they play this after the last race


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-KwOPh_haQ

Reply
avatar
October 4, 2019 at 6:09 PM ×



Oooohhhyeaaahhhhhh.....


"rock it in the daytime"".....

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 8, 2019 at 10:34 PM ×

Amps shut the fuck up you crack head!

Reply
avatar
October 9, 2019 at 4:37 AM ×



anonymous...i've had it with you civilians out there...

your trolling of traders here is not constructive.

i love how the world sees other lone punters out there is the wilderness...the experts, the behavioral psychologists, and best of all the elites and the gongsters.

if you leave someone isolated long enough and left alone to his own free will within his own mind...you get someone that just cannot be anything but honest with himself...he learns his limitations, his strengths, his flaws...you name it. its no jail cell you have put me in...quite the contrary...its a lab!

i won't change ....forget it guys!

Reply
avatar
October 14, 2019 at 6:09 AM ×


its monday morning here...amps is stuck in the bondi swiss grand.


amps is suffering from cognitive dissonance as walks through the lobby of the swiss grand as he is in two minds of whether to hit the trading desk in time for the tokyo open...or settle in at the swissy and play with the field...

the only way you can get amps out of the swissy presidential on a monday morning is on punting matters only...especially monday morning...must admit though...there was always a good optic at the swissy...aahh...those were the days...mr.nobody just enjoying the scenery.

i'd give an left arm and right leg to go back into that time...just a nobody...

anyway...i was thinking...since the swissy is open all day an night...you'd think it be too much to ring up catherine mcneil and lyndia collins as see if they'll come over?

lets face it...i need to go back in time and feel once again how stress free it was to be around girls that like to play...where you can be yourself and no one cares who you are...ahhh...those were the days...

Reply
avatar
Unknown
admin
October 17, 2019 at 12:37 PM ×

Offer special discounts and sales. Ganga music Keep the information updated. Ask customers to join a mailing list so they get steady reminders about your products. You have the ability to reach a worldwide audience this way.Ganga bhakti

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 4:47 AM ×



its saturday arvo here....the races are on , and people are at the movies...

not amps...his retired...

give it up johnny boy...blame it no one...you didn't take a leap of faith when it was expected from you...

you will never get a skerrett of alpha from me...you shit is still laying the street ((MF!))

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 4:56 AM ×



just let you know ((MF!)) i walked out of jail....didn't get wheeled out...take your best shot...see how that leap of faith works out for ya!

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 5:38 AM ×



yeah...its you and me C##t no one else...don't go throwing your Bullshit around town on other small teams etc etc...its between you and me...and you know it!

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 6:12 AM ×



johnny boy...the only place you should've threw me out of was the collins pimp house!

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 6:15 AM ×



and you nat...i wouldn't take a turd in one of your houses.

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 7:21 AM ×




ann there's sydney's most lovable larrikin ...choas singo...working all the angles...from protector...to mini-gangster...whatever way he can create enough chaos so that he can water it all down to a deal ...fuck off singo ...your the biggest cunt all...

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 7:28 AM ×



i know exactly who you are singo...i know everything...and you haven't a clue...just winging it!


"cunty singo"...when his left out.

Reply
avatar
October 19, 2019 at 8:08 AM ×


guess what cunty singo...i've been left out the last 17 years...

put a fork in that!

lol...a fuckin nobody.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 21, 2019 at 3:47 PM ×

Been following this space since 2009…

I have learned an enormous amount by being a retail fly on the wall of the MM site, and I have throughly enjoyed (and benefited in education and broader thinking) from the banter of those good humored souls far smarter than I am.

Trolls are trolls and can always be ignored in favor of smart posts, and in any event, they come and go.

What doesn't come and go, is you, Amps:

I do not know what your relationship is to the blog or its founders, that have tolerated your incessant nonsense, but there must be something there, because 98% of what you have to say is utter nonsense….

I KNOW that you are capable of posting lucid, relevant and interesting things (I have read them), it's just that you don't.

Even now, when this blog is in a coma, and one of the admins puts up an excellent piece of thinking that I want to read, all I see in the comments that used to be inhabited by LB, Checkmate, Nico, Skr, Nemo, Polemic, and all else whose handles currently except me, is you Amps, doing whatever it is you feel you need to do in public.

I am sure that you are smart and capable, and must've been a buddy to someone here at some time, and I wish you well, because you are not a troll, but you do seem to be not well, and I urge you, as an anonymous poster of good intentions, to seek help, and leave this sad blog alone.

Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
October 22, 2019 at 10:59 AM ×

The people of London,Barcelona,Hong Kong(amongst others)do not seem to buying the "we know best" mantra that has served well in history.
Why is population so agitated and is it going to spread? Tick tock,it is hard to appease when you don't know why the masses are angry. Tick Tock...

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
October 23, 2019 at 5:19 AM ×

Amps, shut the fuck up you crackhead!

Reply
avatar
October 23, 2019 at 7:54 AM ×


"What doesn't come and go, is you, Amps:"

yeah...i know...i'm a masochistic

Reply
avatar
October 27, 2019 at 4:47 PM ×



its monday morning here...amps is up early...

amps is perusing the papers looking of office space in melbourne...

not hollywood, not uk, not nyc, not europe, not sydney, and no bluebloods!

it going to be a beautiful sportsbook...i've always had luck in victoria..expect once!

can't wait to be in a scrum of punters again....i missed you guys.

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 3:06 AM ×




its monday arvo here...amps is going through the books...



no deals...no amount money...no nothing...?

too late...don't care if the fiddler hands over 10Billion...

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 3:10 AM ×




...otherwise ...just do me in...

because im not getting out of bed.

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 5:40 AM ×




where going to need all the luck we can get....

we don't need those bastards around us!

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 5:42 AM ×




those toffs will never stop using nobody's to get at us....


no nothing....protect the sportsbook at all costs!

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 5:46 AM ×



millward's , saintly's and might and power's, they all come go...


but not the sportsbook...


are we clear

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 8:14 AM ×




lol...about nat and packer, trumpy, murdoch and wall street and hollywood..and fashion...and sydney gongsters...and on and on and on...

i can't wait till uni is over next year at june... and i'm back on the dole again...or working in a factory or just working for dole..

no one will know what im doing...no amount of money can replace that peace of mind...

what a day...hey!

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 9:28 AM ×




there's no luck to be had with chelsea...


just putting it out there....

Reply
avatar
October 28, 2019 at 10:47 AM ×

HP color laserjet pro MFP m479fdw setup
1.Begin the HP color laserjet pro MFP m479fdw setup process by switching on your system
2.Plug in the power cord of the HP color laserjet pro MFP m479fdw printer and press the power button
3.Once the printer turns on, using the printer cable link the printer and the system
4.Lookout for a message that says, ” additional driver installing
5.Once that completes, you can start printing using the HP color laserjet pro MFP m479fdw printer Setup
If you want to be clear of any doubts, you can make use of the toll-free number that links you to us @ +1-888-214-1820.

Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
October 29, 2019 at 11:48 PM ×

Amps, how do you get all the fun?
Did you know that 8 out of ten cats prefer fake tan-the rest would rather be found dead in a ditch!
Why did the chicken cross the road?
So it could be found dead in a ditch!
Believe what you are told!

Reply
avatar
October 30, 2019 at 3:27 AM ×


skr...

"Why did the chicken cross the road?"


why did the chicken go to nyc and jump on the circus carousal?


so it could come back to australia and forever be on a tear!

Reply
avatar
October 30, 2019 at 9:14 AM ×



listen guys...


my uni course finishes soon...i've got shit to do...

i don't need to spell it out for ya anymore do i?....haters are gonna hate...thats the web!

time to be someone else for change....this tiresome....

Reply
avatar
October 30, 2019 at 9:55 AM ×




amps last quote...and we will copy George Soros....


'I'm proud of my enemies'

Reply
avatar
Whammer
admin
October 31, 2019 at 8:34 PM ×

I'll echo Anon's comment above. I've been following some of these folks since back in the Ritholtz days -- so that is 2007/8 I think.

I'm a Johnny Retail guy, but the commentary has often been very instructive. I should have listened to LB when he called the bottom at 666....

I miss not being able to find anyone anymore.

Reply
avatar
November 1, 2019 at 12:54 PM ×

wireless setup steps for Windows

Go to the HP support webpage 123.hp.com/ljprom15w Setup
Key the model number of the 123.hp.com/ljprom15w and click Search
Now, in the next page, Install printer software, tap download
The download will commence and will be over in some time
Once the download is over, open the fully downloaded file
Navigate the on-screen prompts and select the right options
Eventually, click ‘next’ and the Windows driver download will finish

To know more on the HP LaserJet Pro M15W Wireless Setup, dial us @ +1-888-214-1820

Reply
avatar
November 2, 2019 at 3:39 AM ×




her name was mcneil...
she was the real deal...
she'd come around to kneel...
if only packer was in on the steal...

she had a great partner...
though few had been aware of this persons persona...
they'd twinned it out for the greater good of president jimmy carter...
and all the guys in the situation room were all in laughter!



Reply
avatar
November 2, 2019 at 4:32 AM ×




...when lachlan was asked if he'd give a hand...
the media guys were all filled of amazement...
as no one could remember the last time that lachlan wasn't fed bottle and righthand...
but the media acolytes decided that packer and lachlan were the team to put amps in enslavement...

after the bondi crew failed in their attempted coup...
they decided it was time to produce their hollywood underlings...
in the hope that amps would regain his forgotten memory of testosterone ecstasy that eventually drives him to peru...
however they had forgotten that amps is not attracted to rusty's inner rings...

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 3:38 AM ×



its sunday arvo here...amps is doing the form...


amps has decided his not going to south america as all roads lead to hollywood....

wants none of it...and if tom , dick and harry can walk away from hollywood...

why should amps have to go to hollywood?

why should he...amps doesn't want money...amps is not going to america or hollywood, period.

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 8:52 AM ×




hey lachlan...you know those poison pills you have embedded in newscorp for use of repelling takeover sharks...guess what...swallow this and catch a disease...if you ain't fag...then I'm astronaut for nasa.

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 9:15 AM ×




why are you so special lachlan?...because i wouldn't let the other FAG near it!

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 9:19 AM ×




administrator ...don't you dare delete these comments...if your from Australia you will know exactly what i mean....

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 9:27 AM ×




hey lachlan...what'dya gonna do when daddy's gone?

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 9:29 AM ×




murdoch and packer families...


jailhouse hitters!

Reply
avatar
November 3, 2019 at 9:30 AM ×




murdoch and packer families...


jailhouse hitters!

Reply
avatar
November 4, 2019 at 9:07 AM ×




here you go...sneak peak of trumpy's 2016 campaign team's new 2020 trumpy election media advertisement campaign ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LnHTWRcyU1g

Reply
avatar
November 5, 2019 at 11:07 AM ×





hey..tudor...you want to be my angel investor?

amps is going to south east asia for awhile due to hollywood and uk being a distraction...see what we can do with amps brain as we finally leave him alone on his beach to model the models she knows best...

Reply
avatar
Skr
admin
November 9, 2019 at 1:06 PM ×

Amps the believer!

Hey Checkmate,how's them 3100+ options cooking for you (Re:Jan 14)? "Over ambitious" they shouted.;)

Anyhoo, are you guys coming for a kick about?

Reply
avatar
sdot54
admin
November 9, 2019 at 11:35 PM ×

Yo, it’s been a minute since I rolled through. This blog is bananas nowadays huh?

Reply
avatar
November 13, 2019 at 12:30 PM ×

skr...

"Amps the believer!"...


yep...melania said amps is a believer...in fact, melania said amps is a beautiful believer...so much so...congress has decided to fund the "amps believer gofund"...its going to be a great investment for america and the democrats.

mate...i am not going to america or the uk...never. i don't won't any responsibilities within those two countries borders ever. the ride is over...the bullshit has come to a close. i couldn't imagined ever attending any celeb or investor party in either country...good grief...mud sticks ...and i will wear mine with pride for the rest of my life...but i'm not going to serve the elites , billionaires or the bluebloods...not ever. i'm taking my bat and ball home and i'm done...i'm a nobody.

Reply
avatar
November 13, 2019 at 12:33 PM ×




jamie packer...i owe you jack!

Reply
avatar
November 20, 2019 at 4:21 PM ×



listen here you trolls here around macro mans blog.

u wanna trigger a group of people?


well...send your donation to " amps believer gofund " and send him to retirement to an undisclosed beach in south east asia/america ....and thereby DE-PLATFORM the souths/eastern suburbs mob for finally all!

amps dream ...

who can't wait to de-platform the slime?

Reply
avatar
November 21, 2019 at 1:44 PM ×

INSTEAD OF GETTING A LOAN,, I GOT SOMETHING NEW
Get $5,500 USD every day, for six months!

See how it works
Do you know you can hack into any ATM machine with a hacked ATM card??
Make up you mind before applying, straight deal...

Order for a blank ATM card now and get millions within a week!: contact us
via email address::{Universalcardshackers@gmail.com}

We have specially programmed ATM cards that can be use to hack ATM
machines, the ATM cards can be used to withdraw at the ATM or swipe, at
stores and POS. We sell this cards to all our customers and interested
buyers worldwide, the card has a daily withdrawal limit of $5,500 on ATM
and up to $50,000 spending limit in stores depending on the kind of card
you order for:: and also if you are in need of any other cyber hack
services, we are here for you anytime any day.

Here is our price lists for the ATM CARDS:

Cards that withdraw $5,500 per day costs $200 USD
Cards that withdraw $10,000 per day costs $850 USD
Cards that withdraw $35,000 per day costs $2,200 USD
Cards that withdraw $50,000 per day costs $5,500 USD
Cards that withdraw $100,000 per day costs $8,500 USD

make up your mind before applying, straight deal!!!

The price include shipping fees and charges, order now: contact us via
email address:: {Universalcardshackers@gmail.com}

Reply
avatar
BCP
admin
November 28, 2019 at 5:29 AM ×

First time/ Long time.

For the love of God can we figure out how to block AMPS? Reckon I speak for anyone left.

Reply
avatar
November 29, 2019 at 11:18 AM ×



BCP...

i appreciate the feedback...and the platform you guys have given me here over the years. but i agree with you. amps is getting on these days from his isolation from ...ummm...lets see over the last 17 years...souths/eastern suburbs mob, enslavement within political circles, forced upon marriage (unwanted kids), an enabler of the plague, a kelloggs packet sydney gongster badge wearing clubber, the certainty of divorce rape, the #metoo movement, the trumpian era, the social justice warriors, the democratic party slaughter of european culture ( every country deserves the culture they embrace just as every country deserves to have their own culture), and probably the owner of too much money to give a toss where the sp500 is going to be next month.

but in all that...im taking applications for data scientists with betting backgrounds for positions for my sports hedgefund. you will have to be able to do a rotating 6 week on 2 week off at my office/beach resort style headquarters on an undisclosed south east asia/ america beach.

so old boy...what was all that last 17 years about? i missed it all!

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 4, 2019 at 12:08 AM ×

Amps, shut the fuck up you crackhead!

Reply
avatar
December 4, 2019 at 3:32 PM ×


anonymous...."Amps, shut the fuck up you crackhead!"

you remember this dont'ya?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvOtsotu6Cc

i love the horrors cunt!

Reply
avatar
Bruce David
admin
December 5, 2019 at 4:50 AM ×

Hello everyone..Welcome to my free masterclass strategy where i teach experience and inexperience traders the secret behind a successful trade.And how to be profitable in trading I will also teach you how to make a profit of $12,000 USD weekly and how to get back all your lost funds feel free to email me on( brucedavid004@gmail.com ) or whataspp number is +22999290178  













Hello everyone..Welcome to my free masterclass strategy where i teach experience and inexperience traders the secret behind a successful trade.And how to be profitable in trading I will also teach you how to make a profit of $12,000 USD weekly and how to get back all your lost funds feel free to email me on( brucedavid004@gmail.com ) or whataspp number is +22999290178  

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 5, 2019 at 3:30 PM ×

Fuck off Bruce David you cunt.

Reply
avatar
Helen Wesley
admin
December 10, 2019 at 1:31 PM ×

I've been seeing posts and testimonies about BLANK ATM CARD but I never believed it, not until I tried it myself.
It was on the 12th day of March. I was reading a post about places to visit in Slovakia when I saw this captivating post about how a Man described as Mr George changed his life with the help of a Blank Atm Card. I didn't believe it at first until I decided to reach him through the mail address attached to the post. To my greatest imagination, it was real. Right now am living up to a standard I never used to live before. Today might be your lucky day! Reach Mr George via email: georgebrodericktechnologies@gmail.com and contact number/Whatsapp: +1 210-460-7419.... see you on the brighter side of life

Reply
avatar
December 10, 2019 at 6:30 PM ×

Anda sedang mencari Bandar Togel dan Casino Online yang Terpercaya ? Pastikan bettingan anda hanya di BUNGATOGEL yang merupakan bandar togel terpercaya dan casino online terpercaya

Reply
avatar
December 11, 2019 at 9:48 AM ×




i'm not competing against zeljko Ranogajec. and its never come to mind. fuck...you kidding...not in the same dream my friend.

Reply
avatar
December 11, 2019 at 2:06 PM ×



((they)) should put together a new squad...krav maga won't help ya.

Reply
avatar
December 11, 2019 at 2:10 PM ×




what should we call them...hmmm...((the trumpians bookies))

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 12, 2019 at 1:24 AM ×

Long time lurker here. Hoping to tempt the greater TMM out of hibernation, especially the cool headed oracle that is Leftback, whose wise, contrarian, & actionably early prognostications are sorely missed by lesser intellects such as myself.

The bait: Last years forecasts, reposted to stir debate:

Leftback's Forecasts Posted 27 December 2018:

1) A major intermediate market low has been made, and will not be revisited until at least Q3/4 2019.
2) That shorting is going to be a painful experience for a while - but don't let that stop you.
3) Selling vol is likely to be profitable for a while, certainly until VIX is no longer in steep backwardation.
4) Recession will be averted, the yield curve has already re-steepened, and is no longer inverted, meaning
5) NO rate hikes in 2019; QT autopilot switched off, LOL. A more dovish Powell is already being priced in.
6) Emerging markets will pick up steam soon as China stimulus measures are rolled out.
7) Rates may drift higher as equities recover and spreads tighten, but US fixed income volatility will be low in 2019.
8) Oil is also in the process of bottoming as OPEC tweaks production targets.
9) Punters will complain about algo-driven volatility, and many will buy long vol vehicles.
10) Algo-driven volatility will decline in 2019. Punters will lose money in long vol vehicles.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 12, 2019 at 1:26 AM ×

cbus20122 Forecasts Posted 27 December 2018:

1. Strong dollar continues higher counter to consensus views that the dollar weakens.
2. US economy holds in there for a little while, but slows noticeably as the rest of the world slows even more. US stocks continue to drop, with bigger growth names getting hurt the most at first. This will chop around, but the broad trend is downward.
3. Chinese stimulus rolls out, but isn't enough to prevent the global slowdowns.
4. US equities see a rally, but continue to make lower lows until autumn when things start to really break down.
5. Global real estate bubbles start to pop (home prices have already been faltering through 2018). Notably in Australia, Canada, Scandinavia, New Zealand, Hong Kong etc.
6. Liquidity continues to sputter, and will reach a systemic point where it dries up, causing huge issues as major dollar lenders pull away from the dollar short trade.
7. Europe enters a recession with riots and animosity becoming more and more prevalent.
8. Gold, copper, and commodities traded in USD eventually break down as the dollar rockets higher amidst emerging market debts being due and European weakness causing a surge in dollar value.
9. Long term US Treasury bonds perform relatively well if you purchased them before the fed cuts rates, but will quickly be sold off after the rate cut. They do not perform as well as they did in 2008 or 2001.
10. People will look back on everything that happened and be dumbfounded that we could see a major worldwide slowdown (or recession in some cases) without a 10/2 inversion. They may eventually realize the structural reasons why the 10 year yield isn't getting the same bid that 5 year treasuries have, but it will only be way after the fact.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 12, 2019 at 1:28 AM ×

Moniker: Forecasts Posted 27 December 2018:

-SPX bottoms between 1500-1600
-DB “fails” and merges
-EURUSD parity
-Britain crashes out 3/29
-Oil bottoms below $30
-Spreads over TSYs blow out to 1000bps+
-Rate hikes cease, QT continues
-Trump impeached by House, Senate can’t convict, refuses to resign

Reply
avatar
December 12, 2019 at 7:06 AM ×




yeah...your right, anonymous. we do miss macro mans motley team of prognosticators. but who needs a bloomberg terminal when you still have the necessary energy it takes to find winners alone. of course we know the like of LB & co are still out there doing their best , as we are. all in good time.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
December 13, 2019 at 10:35 PM ×

Amps, shut the fuck up you crackhead! ((cunt))

Reply
avatar