A Damascene moment?

* The Godfather III

* Back to the Future II

* Ishtar

*  Second Coming 

*  Kid A

*  Super Bowl XLVIII (the Seattle - Denver one)

*  The England football team in any major tournament

After yesterday's carnage we can probably add  the December ECB policy announcement to this list of famous disappointments.  One of the benefits of having a long memory is that you know with a large enough sample size, "x always does y" generally demonstrates exceptions.   So it proved with Draghi, who was evidently unable to corral the Germanic contingent into over-delivering once again.

Let's briefly examine the five planks of what the ECB did do:

1) 10 bp cut in the deposit rate.  This was the absolute minimum expected by any major forecaster.   Should keep euribor below where it was a few months ago, but not as low as was priced a couple of days ago.

2) Extending the purchases to March '17.   So they're committing to a total of 15 more months (from today) of QE.   More popgun than bazooka.

3) Reinvesting the principal of maturing securities back into the program.  That Draghi held this up as a beacon of "see, we're easing!" suggests that he must have taken a beating behind closed doors.  Lest we forget, the Fed does this, and they're fixin' to hike rates.

4) Buying local government debt as part of QE.  If this were China, it would be a big, big deal.   But it's not, so it isn't.

5) Continuing MROs and 3m LTROs on a fixed rate, full allotment basis for as long as necessary.     Zzzzzz.  How very 2012. 

While Macro Man attempted to sound a note of caution on the euro this week, even he was surprised at how vehement the reaction was.  Of course, things weren't helped by the absurdity of the faux FT story that floated a few minutes before the official announcement.   Schadenfreude isn't a very noble emotion, but you'll pardon your author if he hopes that the algos got buggered senseless trading the fake headline, getting back in when it proved false, and then getting buggered again when the real decision hit the tapes.   Heading into the announcement EUR/USD overnight vol was at its highest level in seven years; yesterday was a perfect example of why high does not always equal expensive.

If you're reading this note, you probably don't need Macro Man to dissect yesterday's price action for you.   In fact, it probably doesn't need any dissection whatsoever, as the street is littered with the guts of disemboweled punters.   Suffice to say that the "cumulative move" chart posted yesterday looks a little bit different today.

 



On a one-day SD basis, the SX5E dropped 2.5 SDs, the euro rallied 4.1 SDs, and Bobl yields rallied nearly 7 SDs.   Zowie!  It was interesting to see US assets get sucked into the vortex as well.  It was almost as if the blind faith in CBs as asset backstops of first and last resort was abandoned in some sort of reverse Damascene moment.

Tempting as it is to point to yesterday as some sort of epochal turning point, the burden of proof is a little bit higher than a one day screw job.  Then again, there's nothing to say that the screw job will last just one day.  Readers may recall that the free fall in oil properly dates to the "laissez-faire" policy announced by OPEC last autumn.   Well, we have another OPEC meeting tomorrow, a press conference at 10 am NY time.   Unlike the ECB a big cut is not in the price, so if we get one take yesterday's chart of European bond yields and just write "oil" at the top of it.

Yesterday's sell-off in US rates was particularly bemusing given another atrocious figure, this one being the non-manufacturing ISM.   The 3.2 point monthly decline was the largest since November 2008.  While the level of the composite ISM is still generally healthy, the recent trend has not been particularly encouraging.



Global beta driven moves in rates are usually a fade when  the domestic data do not support them, though of course in the case of the US we have payrolls today and the looming quasi-certainty of a rate hike in a couple of weeks.  Speaking of payrolls, Macro Man's Magic 8 Ball proprietary model spits out a forecast of 192k this month.   Slightly below consensus, but not enough to trouble the Fed in the slightest, one would think.



As for markets, there are clearly more than a few bruised egos (and P/Ls) out there.   It's interesting that rates and the dollar both got a drubbing yesterday, though given the catalyst perhaps understandable.   It would seem less likely that such an outcome would materialize again today as the focus shifts from Europe to the US.   If the dollar were to sell off on a dataset that sent yields continuing higher, that would say quite a bit about how much positioning is driving things.

FWIW, Macro Man sold a bit of EUR/USD back out yesterday, though not enough to hurt badly if it keeps careening higher.  He'd be lying if he said that he wasn't concerned by the squeeze in the forward points, driven not only by higher cash rates but also a recovery in the basis swaps.  Yesterday's action makes the chart a bit sloppy, but he won't want to see it back above the 200d moving average at 1.1036.

That several major  equity indices have broken their uptrends from the September lows, though relative volumes were understandably much higher in Europe than the US.  There seems to be an almost religious faith in some quarters for the "Santa rally", though yesterday displayed the dangers of introducing hope and faith into a realm where reason and analysis usually reign.

If yesterday does prove to be the Damascene moment that permanently eroded the markets' faith in central bank omnipotence, then we can probably blame it on Mario Draghi, the latter-day avatar of that well-known religious figure The Grinch Who Stole Christmas.
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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 5:22 AM ×

"Mr. Draghi was wrong in thinking he could strike a grand bargain with Europe’s political class in which he would trade monetary exertions for policy reforms that would boost productivity while reining in the costs of bloated and broken entitlement states. The politicians have taken low borrowing costs as an excuse to avoid pushing politically difficult reforms, while markets have noticed that Mr. Draghi is the only policy maker prepared to act boldly for growth and now want him to do more and more.
A better focus for discontent would be the politicians, professional economists and pundits who play down the need for the reforms to entitlements and economic regulations for which Mr. Draghi begs in every press conference.

It’s no use castigating the one man who has promised to do whatever it takes when everyone else is busy doing as little as they can."

http://www.wsj.com/articles/draghi-agonistes-1449188458

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CV
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December 4, 2015 at 7:29 AM ×

A good round-up MM, and yesterday is exactly the reason I don't spend my hard earned money punting FX! ;)

A day like yesterday always have multiple stories.

1) The brave souls who got in front of Draghi and won! This was a monumental squeeze. My call was that Draghi would go for it, seasoned with the usual "if he disappoints, god help you all" qualifiers. He didn't, and the reaction was astonishing to say the least. But if this takes some of this shine off Draghi that is probably a good thing!

2) The fact that the ECB CUT its inflation forecast, but chose to deliver less than expected. This is a key story, and indicates that Draghi didn't get to control things exactly like he wanted. We can't be sure he and the uber doves wanted to increase QE purchases, but I agree with you that it looks like it, given the pathetic attempt to hail reinvestment as more easing. Incidentally, he DID say that these re-investments might begin BEFORE QE ends, which could lift QE slightly, but it is a non-event.

3) In the end, this is significantly more easing in an economy which is arguably already up and running, cyclically speaking at least! The market will, I think, eventually realise this, but not yet.

So what happens next?

Well, my base case was/is that this was the last chance for the doves to push ahead with more easing, but today could force me to revisit that argument. Draghi said that technical parameters will be revisited in the Spring. I still think, though, that inflation will make it more difficult to make the argument, but who knows where oil goes from here. Also, will markets try to lure them towards -0.4% on the depo rate again?

Now on assets.

1) The Euro - I am partial to a sideways or even slightly stronger euro as a fade on the monetary policy divergence story. But I am not 100% convinced that yesterday marked the beginning of that process. Bottom line is that front end rates in the EZ are now -0.3%, and closing on 1% in the U.S. Unless the world absolutely goes to sh't carry trade dynamics suggest this spread should be enough to keep the euro under some pressure. But yesterday also show without a shadow of doubt that parity and beyond requires something rather bonkers from Draghi. 1.05 to 1.15 looks like a good range here.

2) Equities - Buy the dip! At least for the next 3-to-6 months. It could get more difficult later next year, but if what we saw today is merely the pre-cursor for a much longer low rate/QE period, maybe the silver lining is better than that! In the end, I cannot get bearish on EZ equities until excess liquidity turns, and it doesn't look like turning yet. I know the people who disagree with me here, and really, we have been debating this since QE1 in October 2014, so well ...

3) Rates - This is a squeeze, but I think long-term rates in Germany were always vulnerable, so at least the market gave me that yesterday, albeit for all the wrong reasons. 0.5% is just too low. We need to go to 1.4ish before you can buy the carry here I think. As for front-end rates. Well Euribor contracts cratered like they were hit by a hawkish central bank. My advice is to fade any sustained moved higher in short-rates. Fwd guidance as strengthened significantly yesterday. Rates in the EZ will stay very low, for very long.

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 9:23 AM ×

re cv 7:29
i agree regarding EZ equities..we are still in significant easing mode and lead indicators look to be turning which should help earnings and dare i say a slight re rating of multiples.
Given big picture views and overshoot potential i couldn't get myself long euros(just got flat) , though played draghi disappointment via bund puts ( which looked "cheapest " from a vol perspective. Have taken some profit but think bund yields might tag 90bps.back selling euros this am...
interesting to see us equities price action- i had mentioned the chance of a false break out to the upside here a few days ago and that what seems to have played out. we might range trade 2020-2100 into new year but break below favours an intermediate trend change down
so ez over us equites seems the equity pair trade for me though this could be getting crowded?
And finally FANG might be ready to give back some hype

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 10:49 AM ×

nice post MM. many thanks

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CV
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December 4, 2015 at 11:05 AM ×

"so ez over us equites seems the equity pair trade for me though this could be getting crowded?"

Oh definitely! Everyone is lazily piling into this one, at least based on annual ETF and mutual fund flows. Same with Nikkei v US as it were, which might just have more juice as Kuroda could be the next one up to do something really, really crazy.

My hunch is that we will have a period of steeper yield curves, higher inflation, and easing in the pressure on EM/energy before the world really heads south in 2017ish.

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 11:20 AM ×

"Oh definitely! Everyone is lazily piling into this one, at least based on annual ETF and mutual fund flows."

for every buyer there is a seller, so this doesn't add up

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 11:20 AM ×

Go Constancio!

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Leftback
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December 4, 2015 at 11:30 AM ×

During the bear market period of 2007-2009, most jobs weeks would have a big sell-off on Thursday (sell the rumor) followed by a rally on Friday after the BLS number (buy the news). The current situation bears watching to see if this week indicates the start of a pattern that is characteristic of bear markets. We remain agnostic.

Our entry for the BLS Bingo is +185k. Goldilocks. Buy the News, etc... We would accumulate US fixed income today on any additional move up in rates. Yesterday's weakness in bonds was driven by Europe, not by US economic strength.

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CV
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December 4, 2015 at 11:54 AM ×

I like the look of the long bond in the U.S. too here. As for equities, well ... U.S. beta just looks completely unattractive to me. No catalyst, no nothing. Sector themes should continue to do ok I guess.

EM equities on the other hand ;).

Widening credit spreads is the key warning signal, and it shows that we're late cycle. But I still think the big credit roll-over schedules un 2017 and slightly more confident BOJ and ECB will be the trigger to go tin-foil hat on this market.

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Macro Man
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December 4, 2015 at 1:07 PM ×

CV: Yes, the ECB cut its inflation forecast....by 0.1 in 2 years. Pretty much the minimum increment. At the same time, they raised the growth forecast for the same year by the same amount, implying no real change to their estimate of nominal GDP growth...just a more favourable mix.

I find it very very difficult to see this as a 'dovish' forecast outcome....quite the contrary, in fact.

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Booger
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December 4, 2015 at 1:22 PM ×

Anon 5:22am, Saint Draghi eh? perhaps he miscalculated but seriously, another perspective is that he is hardly a saint instead choosing the easy option of tarting up economic numbers for a few quarters from QE currency devaluation. In terms of being the champions of economic reform and fiscal reform, perhaps the CB's do protesteth too much. Political systems make the hard decisions when faced with crisis. Monetary opium is the antithesis of what is needed for the changes cited.

Here are the CB's acting in a manner that appears to be data non-dependent. Draghi promises to bring out bazooka when data indicates things are improving. Instead brings out pop gun. Yellen promises to bring out rate increase when data is sliding. What will the result be? Could it be worse than sell the rumour in terms of dollar weakness.

In 2016 we will find out if the prize for poor monetary policy is mild stagflation.

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Bruce in Tennessee
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December 4, 2015 at 1:33 PM ×

I think the last 7 years cannot help but make investors inured to the way markets should work. It cannot help but be so. We are deeply in a day to day mentality. I do believe that excess credit creation cannot persist, and perhaps yesterday was the first day back to normalcy. That said, I will watch events closely, but am accumulating cash with plans to bet heavily on the correction when I am convinced it comes. Loss of liquidity after these seven years will weigh heavily on equities.

Like B'rer Rabbit, today though I just lay low....

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CV
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December 4, 2015 at 1:36 PM ×

Respectfully disagree MM, especially given the singular focus on the "inflation/price stability" mandate in everything Draghi has uttered since QE began in October. Easing policy, as they did, AND cutting the inflation forecast seem an odd mix in this case, regardless of whether it was always impossible for them to market pricing/expectations.

This will be a mute point in a few months, though, because inflation will go up, quickly!

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CV
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December 4, 2015 at 1:37 PM ×

moot point I think, but it could be mute as well I guess :).

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washedup
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December 4, 2015 at 2:19 PM ×

A 'damascene' moment? really MM? Syria has clearly been on your mind.
My two cents - Draghi didn't come across as hawkish or dovish, just - ineffectual in that he misread the reaction function for the first time, which he, via chasing his tail, has turned into a exponential function - enjoy the high stakes poker game with Mr Market you so enthusiastically signed up for, Mario.
Anyone else think Ms Yellen knows fully well whats coming next year for the US labor market, hence the 'oh 100k/month will be just fine' comment?
Booger, yes mild stagflation is exactly what I anticipate - made all the more interesting by the fact that punters are about as acquainted with asset price dynamics in that environment as paleontologists are with Unicorn fossils.
Left - I am a bit too disturbed by the bond selloff to don the kevlar - will buy some TLT call spreads and do it the chickens@t way. Outcomes here seem quite binary.

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 2:32 PM ×

ahem. Suppose you had a friend who went a bit charlie-big-bananas on the stoxx, and is hopelessly over-leveraged. What levels would you give said punter as potential support?

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Macro Man
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December 4, 2015 at 2:43 PM ×

@washedup....It's not like I haven't used the analogy before.

@ Asking for a friend punter: I wouldn't want to see VG1 below 3280, that's for damn sure.

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 2:57 PM ×

Cheers MM, I'll tell Jens he might as well double down!

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abee crombie
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December 4, 2015 at 3:12 PM ×

From mr Spoos and Blues

Yesterday Mario tried his best to put a reassuring face on what could only be described as a botched ECB meeting. I have watched everyone of his press conferences over the years, and I have never seen him more uncomfortable. He knew he was under-delivering, and he was trying his best to sell us a faulty bill of goods. Of course, the market was having none of it and there was complete carnage - a 5% down day for European equities and a 4 big figure up day in EURUSD. All in, it was a massive tightening in Euro area financial conditions. Exactly the opposite of what the Euro area desperately needs.

As of now though, I am not ready to throw in the towel on the European QE led reflation trade (Dax and Dollar). However, my prior excitement for an escalation in the process has diminished substantially. Mario will certainly have a chance at redemption in future, but can we really believe him again if he starts to mount an aggressive communication offensive against the hawks in the lead up to the March 2016 meeting? Hardly likely! Looking ahead Europe likely goes back to muddling along with only moderate reflationary tendencies. And of course, the weakest parts of the euro zone see continued deterioration and stress. It was a sad day for the "QE lovers" in Eurozone. And a sad day for the those European citizens who are being forced to endure another round of monetary policy mistakes.

I'm still thinking what the implications are but not sure its anything game changing for other asset classes. I find it hard to believe EZ equites were only bought on speculation of bigger QE expectations over the past 3 - 6 weeks

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abee crombie
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December 4, 2015 at 3:35 PM ×

I think what is lost on most of the market, trying to figure out where the EURO will go, or US rates or oil, which all have their own idiosyncratic supply and demand issues, is that the macro economy picture has been pretty crap for the most part of this year. As discussed earlier, world trade is down, Korean exports, World PMI's etc. This has been the underlying business cycles for the past 6-9 months, even though US internet giants keep reporting good earnings, Eurostoxx got bid up on QE and the Saudi's started to pump like mad. Slow growth is not NEW news, in fact it should already be in the price of everything. The question is where do we go from here? If equities start selling off hard, then we could get another reflexive led move down in global confidence. That for sure is a possibility. But if that doesnt happen, and the numbers start to get better, from the low growth rate we are at, it could in fact be a very auspicious time to get long equities and other pro growth trades. 6 month call options on EZ equities look very interesting to me. Bc if we dont spiral down, world growth might actually come back and expectations reversed.

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washedup
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December 4, 2015 at 3:57 PM ×

MM - clearly all damascene moments are not the same - you seem to believe the current damascene moment warrants a question mark, whereas the previous one on Oct 20 2008 was emphatic (and I hasten to add, quite prescient!).
The question is, does that carry signaling value (even if inadvertent) or should we chalk that up to 7 more years of sand in the hourglass, the travails of life, and getting your ass kicked by Mboy?

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washedup
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December 4, 2015 at 5:20 PM ×

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2015/february/economic-growth-information-technology-factor-productivity/

Decent article - reminded me of the conference in the late 90's when Barton Biggs got laughed at in a tech conference panel for suggesting that in the long run, air conditioning is a much bigger productivity enhancer than anything IT related.

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Corey
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December 4, 2015 at 5:27 PM ×

Go back and watch the prior presser, seriously; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0814riKW25k&list=PL5C2C2383444CDA3D (you don't have to watch the whole thing just the first few min then the Q&A).

Perhaps hindsight is 20/20 but I really think he was pretty in line with what he said he would do and what he did. "The degree of monetary policy accommodation will need to be re-examined in Dec..." He further clarifies in the Q&A, "the governing council has tasked the relevant committees to work on different monetary instruments that could potentially be used to examine the pros and cons of different instruments." "...in other words if one has to summarize what was the attitude of the stance of the governing council discussion today, one would say that it is not wait and see, but work and assess."

Okay so they are working and assessing and re-examining the different tools available to them if inflation doesn't pick up. How exactly does this translate to, 'we're going to buy every fing thing in sight.' You cannot implement another QE program or double down in 3 months time if your committees are still measuring, examining, re-evaluating the different tools available!

The market just got it wrong. Furthermore those that are viewing the decision through the prism of the Germans putting their foot down are only opening themselves up to future misinterpretations. Perhaps this was the case, but I would disagree.

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Corey
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December 4, 2015 at 6:07 PM ×

Well now that's redundant. Mario got his groove back.

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 6:24 PM ×

is this a joke?

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 6:31 PM ×

Anyone JBTFD in spooz? I didn't, but it worked again today.

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 6:36 PM ×

Every time spooz have corrected in the last few years, Fed panics and promises QE etc to keep the stock market supported.
After yesterdays cock-up Draghi is now panicking and promising QE etc to keep the stock market supported.
The BOJ and PBoC consistently panic and promise QE, death to short-sellers etc to keep the stock market supported.

Do you guys see a pattern?

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 6:51 PM ×

"Do you guys see a pattern?"

They all failed to please their mothers?

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 6:52 PM ×

Would be interested in everyone's views on this attached picture (featuring today's equity markets) - like wtf?
http://imgur.com/GtkpCtA

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washedup
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December 4, 2015 at 7:45 PM ×

well - draghi spoke after the european markets closed - else I suspect they'd all look the same.

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 7:52 PM ×

washed - check futures mkts. Eu, Asian, and US small caps all lagging (as per picture). Large cap US out-performing. F*ck knows why...

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 8:05 PM ×

Anon 6:52 those aren't even in the same time zone. Compare European after hours futures vs US i think you'll see a difference.

And what kind of moomin drew those thick red lines.

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washedup
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December 4, 2015 at 8:07 PM ×

good point anon - so is high yield - weird indeed.

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Anonymous
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December 4, 2015 at 8:34 PM ×

If you're bored of getting your face ripped off by VIX algos running wild in Spoos, you could always invest with these deranged retards...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-04/china-terrifies-investors-crackdown-if-you-dont-do-what-they-ask-there-will-be-blood

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Mr. T
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December 4, 2015 at 9:28 PM ×

OPEC looks pretty much done to me. I was surprised at the relative strength of WTI in what was an unambiguously bearish meeting.

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CV
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December 5, 2015 at 9:28 AM ×

Fair points Corey! In any case, this is old news now. Future comments by the ECB will tell us whether they have been spooked by the "disappointment" or not. I reckon they will be smart enough to sit back and let the "package" simmer a bit before deciding. In any case, they are also, arguably, banking on Yellen to send a signal on rates, and by extension the USD, before making any additional moves.

At least, Mr. Draghi shied away from commenting on the market chaos today, which is a good thing I think. He did, however, pull out a very weird number €680B in additional stimulus up until 2019, and I suspect this is what the market, in part, moved on.

Now, walk with me MMers. If you're central bank and you just committed to six more months of €60B a month, then you'r obviously boosting your balance sheet by €360B compared to before that policy was announced. The remaining €320B is then supposed to come from reinvestment of principals, but it is still unclear whether this will simply begin in once the program is meant to end (a la the Fed) or whether it will begin before, as bonds will already be rolling off, providing a de-facto lift to QE today. Without clarification, we can't be sure.

Meanwhile, on the jump in U.S. stocks. Maybe there is a little bit of flight to "clarity" here away from the Draghi show. A non-event NFP, the assurances of a fed hike etc etc. No need to justify every move with a grand macro catalyst. Single names in U.S. stocks have lifted yours truly's PnL handsomely this week, for example, ... talk about beating expectations ;)!

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Booger
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December 5, 2015 at 12:34 PM ×

The euro is hard to predict from here. But the rest of the dollar index could be headed for a drubbing around the time of the December Fed rate hike. With a 70-80% chance of rate hike factored in, one wonders how much further juice there could be in a dollar rally with the announcement ?

Monetary divergence doesn't justify a higher dollar here. So I think, small rally from here to Fed day, then probably a major dollar correction and sell on the news. We probably will have to wait for some real risk aversion for the dollar to rally to the next level.

The com-bloc currencies are in a good range to short but the outstanding long dollar positions are still very crowded and make any dollar long position unattractive here. My plan currently is to lay low and go into the Fed decision with a small long gold position.

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Booger
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December 6, 2015 at 10:35 AM ×

Actually, looking at the daily chart, the eur.usd could well rally further after a brief pullback.

Dollar: It boils down to whether you think the story about policy divergences between the Fed and the other CBs is now exaggerated and flawed. If the U.S. economy is rolling over, the rate hike will be a one and only and it will be quickly reversed. In which case the dollar will make a double top in the next month. But will reach new heights after the correction if there is risk aversion, which there will be if the U.S economy is rolling over.

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Anonymous
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December 6, 2015 at 11:59 AM ×

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12035305/Uneasy-market-calm-masks-debt-timebomb-BIS-warns.html

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CV
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December 6, 2015 at 8:25 PM ×

@ Booger ... I definitely think the Euro has further upside here in the short run. The Fed will hike, yes ... but I doubt they will provide hawkish guidance to gun the euro below 1.05, which leaves us with the status quo, and a stronger euro. The ECB eventually will get apprehensive about this, but not until we get above 1.15 I think.

I am very open to this being the tail end of a the USD bull ... but if risk sentiment recovers, you have to assume the carry monkeys will weigh on the euro to some extent.

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