Whither payrolls?

Macro Man loves the smell of payrolls in the morning.   Actually, not really- the smells of a trading floor on a Friday morning are pretty darned far down his list of desirable olfactory sensations.  And when you're carrying big positions (which he isn't at the moment), taking a journey through the randomizer of the BLS labor figures is generally not a particularly zen experience.

While punters are somewhat conditioned to feel like "this month's payroll number is the most important in some time", Macro Man cannot help but feel the opposite with respect to today's figure.   The trend is comfortable ensconced well north of 200k, and the unemployment rate continues to trickle lower.   Stocks have pared much of their early-year losses thanks to the squeeze-o-rama of the last couple of days, and bonds- well, bonds seem predisposed to rally on any day ending in Y and not beginning with S.

Can today's figure shake the trend of bond strength and EUR/USD weakness?   Anything is possible of course, but it would seem dubious that both of those trends can end on the same figure.   Indeed, it almost feels like any number on a 200 handle will seem like business as usual and be casually ignored.   A lowball like sub 150 could, of course, put a dent in the dollar; however, insofar as much of the euro's weakness is ECB related, it's hard to see a stop-fest carrying further than a figure or two.

A 300k plus would ostensibly provide a headwind for bonds, but geez- that's what we got last month and it coincided with an uber-rally.

For what it's worth, Macro Man's indicator looks for 222k today, though it's been running on the low side for the past year or so.

Given how cold it's been in the northeastern US over the last few days, it's tempting to hibernate and sleep through it.  It's difficult to recommend such a course of action for the first meaningful piece of economic data of the year however.   Perhaps punters will be satisfied with a mid-morning doze at the desk if all goes as it seems.....