A weekend interlude from a reader

As long-time readers will no doubt be aware, Macro Man is not averse to twisting a broad range of literary and musical sources to his own devices.  Generally speaking, his cultural knowledge is reasonably broad, but there are a few gaps.  One of these is contemporary manufactured pop music, where his ignorance of the artists and their works is deeply profound.

Fortunately(?), his readers are there to fill in the gaps.  One such, who presumably wishes to remain anonymous, tendered the following lines, which seem an apt market-related translation of some vapid tune from Taylor Swift:

Mario Draghi sings 'Shake it Off'

 

I cut rates too late
Got nothin’ in my tank
That’s what markets say – hmm hmm
That’s what markets say – hmm hmm
Oil prices fall
But I can’t make Brent stabilize
That’s what markets say – hmm hmm
But I keep cruising
Can’t stop, won’t stop finding a solution
Going to buy sovereign bonds
And its going to be all right
Cause the Euro’s gonna fall, fall, fall, fall
Traders gonna trade, trade, trade, trade
Budesbank gonna hate, hate, hate, hate
Markets, I’m just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake
Shake it off, shake it off

I never miss a beat
Its lighting how I think  
And that's what they don't see
That's what they don't see
Strategizing on my own
I adjust my views as I go
And that's what they don't know
They don't know what I know, uh-huh

But I keep cruising
Can’t stop, won’t stop finding a solution
I’ll do whatever it takes
And the Euro’s gonna be all right

Cause inflation’s gonna fall, fall, fall, fall
Traders gonna trade, trade, trade, trade
Shake it off, shake it off

Hey, hey, hey
Just think while you been getting down and out about the data
And the Greece election results
You could have been getting down to this sick beat:

I told lawmakers ECB measures may include sovereign bond buying
They’re like “Oh! My! God!”
But I’m just gonna shake
And to the policymakers over there, with the view of inflation bears
Won’t you come on over, we are gonna reassess, reassess

Cause inflation’s gonna all, fall, fall, fall
Traders gonna trade, trade, trade, trade
Markets, I’m just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake
Shake it off, shake it off

Your author must confess to never having heard this tune before this offering was tendered.  Indeed, the only bit of Ms. Swift's ouevre with which he was familiar was this little ditty:


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CV
admin
January 11, 2015 at 5:52 PM ×

He he he he ... Bravo!

Funny about your point on Taylor Swift. I had no clue about her either until some egghead on CNBC mentioned her feud with Spotify. Her position as the best selling artist since the Beatles, Rolling Stones etc, has pretty much gone un-noticed by me.

I suppose there is an expression for this: "getting older"

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Macro Man
admin
January 11, 2015 at 6:56 PM ×

Funny, when I was my kids' age, I promised myself I wouldn't be the old fogey who knew nothing of popular culture. A few years later, I came to the realization that popular culture is shite!

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Anonymous
admin
January 11, 2015 at 11:07 PM ×

I like it! He did cut rates too late...

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Anonymous
admin
January 11, 2015 at 11:19 PM ×

Could MM, LB, Pol, et al just be robots?
"The writing software, called Quill, was developed by Narrative Science, a Chicago company set up in 2010 to commercialize technology developed at Northwestern University that turns numerical data into a written story. It wasn’t long before Quill was being used to report on baseball games for TV and online sports outlets, and company earnings statements for clients such as Forbes."
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/533976/robot-journalist-finds-new-work-on-wall-street/

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Polemic
admin
January 11, 2015 at 11:28 PM ×

101001011011111000011010000101101110110000000111110101010101000011

Hal

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Anonymous
admin
January 12, 2015 at 1:42 AM ×

Very Clever! I agree - the euro's gonna fall, fall, fall ... You gotta be short, short, short ...

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Nico G
admin
January 12, 2015 at 6:06 AM ×

so we have to read shitty rewording on an already mediocre artist? blimey

i'll take King Crimson and Jeffrey lee Pierce anytime

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CV
admin
January 12, 2015 at 1:40 PM ×

Remember the money back guarantee around here Nico ;).

Anyway, any views on what to make of the PhD in economics here (aka copper)? Just another baby and the bathwater story, the China "loan-collateral" unwind or(?) ... I mean, we can hardly call this a SUPPLY story, now can we?

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abee crombie
admin
January 12, 2015 at 2:04 PM ×

CV, almost everything i read from the street is positive on copper in a few years out as they see production problems in the forecasted new supply.

Glencore has as nice commodity deck presentation from December where they go through a bunch of supply/demand characteristics. Since they are the biggest traders they have a good view, IMO. They see lower overall copper inventories/stocks worldwide, no large supply surpluses and Chinese demand continuing to grow (no slowdown yet)

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Anonymous
admin
January 12, 2015 at 2:25 PM ×

“We’ve got the biggest debt bubble that the world has ever seen and credit is continuing to grow twice as fast” (as the economy). “We’ve got deflation looming on the horizon.”
Charlene Chu (partner of Autonomous Research Asia Ltd.)

"China Stock Investor Confidence Rises to Record. An A-share investor confidence index rose 28.1% y/y to a record 71.2 in December, according to a survey by China Securities Investor Protection Fund. A reading above 50 indicates investors are optimistic, the report said. Over 60% of investors polled expect a strong market."
Shanghai Securities News

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washedup
admin
January 12, 2015 at 2:27 PM ×

'since they are the biggest traders they have a good view'.
Good luck!

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CV
admin
January 12, 2015 at 2:38 PM ×

Thanks Abee ... I will dig out that Glencore presso

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Anonymous
admin
January 12, 2015 at 3:26 PM ×

"Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude touch $42 in the second quarter, stay below $50 in the third, and recover partially in the fourth-quarter. In other words, we are not likely to see a quick oil rebound."

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/01/12/goldman-sees-oil-touch-42-lowers-emerging-asia-inflation-outlook/

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C
admin
January 12, 2015 at 3:30 PM ×

Wow, this took a lot of creativity! Markets and Taylor Swift? Oh my!

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Macro Man
admin
January 12, 2015 at 3:39 PM ×

Cor blimey, it seems as if the readership has as much appreciation for the works of Ms. Swift as I do!

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Anonymous
admin
January 12, 2015 at 3:55 PM ×

"Music is art, and art is important and rare. Important, rare things are valuable. Valuable things should be paid for. It’s my opinion that music should not be free ..." TAYLOR SWIFT

http://acculturated.com/listen-to-taylor-swift-about-economics/

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washedup
admin
January 12, 2015 at 4:01 PM ×

I would venture a guess that she is much more savvy businessperson than anyone on this board. I mean who do u think has better trading sense, the hobo quantum physicist or the person who can peddle utter garbage to the tune of a $200 MM net worth.
Plus, were you guys aware that there is an important international money x-fer protocol named after her?

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Macro Man
admin
January 12, 2015 at 4:09 PM ×

washedup: Indeed. It stands for "Swift's Work Is F---ing Terrible'

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Anonymous
admin
January 12, 2015 at 4:22 PM ×

WSJ:
Of More Than 3,000 U.S. Counties, Just 65 Have Recovered From Recession


(GM)Ally Financial during the first three quarters charged off as uncollectible $341 million, up 18% from the prior year.

Another bailout?

Auto loans to subprime borrowers make up over 31% of all auto loans, according to Equifax.

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Anonymous
admin
January 12, 2015 at 4:24 PM ×

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/taylor-swift-pays-17m-cash-rhode-island-home-report-article-1.1330242

Bet she beat out a hedge fund manager to buy this property -- good for her

A successful young woman with purchasing power.

And if you think her work is terrible than that means her fans' taste is as well. But then that's a lot of people with bad taste.

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Anonymous
admin
January 12, 2015 at 4:39 PM ×

"And if you think her work is terrible than that means her fans' taste is as well. But then that's a lot of people with bad taste. "

And mostly kids today, meaning probably kids of most people on this board...

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abee crombie
admin
January 12, 2015 at 5:45 PM ×

Is Deflation perhaps too consensus now. Yes we have a debt bubble but we also have money galore. Perhaps in 2015 we see the reverse of the past few years, asset deflation yet wage inflation. I know, I know, its crazy thinking, but maybe

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washedup
admin
January 12, 2015 at 6:50 PM ×

going long some GDX vs gold today for a punt - decent breakout plus if the market decides crude stays low (input costs) and gold stabilizes in the 1200 range these guys will mint - kind of holding my nose to do it but the price action is way 2 strong to ignore.
Anyone wants to talk me off this ledge I am all ears.

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Nico G
admin
January 12, 2015 at 7:18 PM ×

i will curse MM website until the end of days for discovering the existence of yet another air head cashing big catering to the masses. Loved the goat though

"Swift dated political heir Conor Kennedy from July to September 2012.[493][494] She dated One Direction singer Harry Styles from October 2012 to January 2013"t she seems to have as much inspiration in her love life as she as writing music and god forbid if she ever sings about such exs

Music has become like contemporary plastic arts where it is only about a good agent (gallery) and smart marketing. Shame for good music does not have to be difficult, it just needs to have 'soul' in it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZmK8RWDE1Q

the new generation is born to iPads and online bravado, their brains are probably much quicker than in the past and yet the taste for good art always rarer. The left brain has been vanquished and you MM should stick to your natural talent that reader interlude sucked big

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hipper
admin
January 12, 2015 at 7:18 PM ×

Thanks MM, kinda feel ashamed not to have heard of this artist because it reminds what kind of a-cultural ditch I've been living in. Or then again, maybe I'm exaggerating. Now if somebody would contract her to do it with those particular lyrics...

Here's a few deviations from another well known tune, translated into macro. They warned you already in 2007 to stay out of MBS, ha:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNv2xIrfh88

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weKN9-9TQcU

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Anonymous
admin
January 12, 2015 at 7:23 PM ×

C Says,
Nothing changes in 'culture'. There has during my adult life always been a niche for people to get a bit tribal. 'See my team we listen to blah and because blah is liked by only the few it proves we are not part of the 'masses' etc etc'. Each to their own. I've been there ,done that, and today looking back on it I see it has nothing more a mindset game like so many others out there.

Let's be frank Taylor Swift will be remembered long after most of us are long forgotten so sneer if you like, but the reality is she's got a product and she knows how to sell it.

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Anonymous
admin
January 12, 2015 at 7:26 PM ×

C Says'
Going to give offence here....
"and yet the taste for good art always rarer."
Nico, you've also got my year to date award for pretentious crap.

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Anonymous
admin
January 12, 2015 at 8:12 PM ×

This really appeals to my admittedly average intellect, so I applaud you!

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Mr. T
admin
January 12, 2015 at 8:14 PM ×

Relative valuations for US pharma / biotech getting richer. I'm short just enough to keep me watching. I'm not necessarily bearish on the sector but the juxtaposition between orphan drug candidates trading at pharma-needs-to-buy-me-to-grow multiples versus substantial portions of the market trading at going-concern multiples is too much.

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Nico G
admin
January 12, 2015 at 9:00 PM ×

Anon 7:26

if you find early Bob Marley pretentious you can go fuck yourself

how about you get a name before crashing the discussion with an insult

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Macro Man
admin
January 12, 2015 at 9:44 PM ×

Kids...play nicely please.

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rp
admin
January 12, 2015 at 10:03 PM ×

lol

No but really I don't think it has that much to do with age, popular music is terrible now, there is no real diversity within the mainstream the sounds are all the same. I think Chris Petit puts it best:
"
I thought that with the digital revolution there would be more choice. But all the main institutional thinking actually became more conservative.
"
The quality of the delivery and the quality of the content are diverging faster. The easier I can access culture, the shittier and more banal it gets. I hate young people.

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Anony
admin
January 12, 2015 at 10:14 PM ×

There it is..$45.xx

From Jan.06

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/elliott_wave/oil/2015/01/06/eliottWaves_oil.html

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Polemic
admin
January 12, 2015 at 10:37 PM ×

Popular Music represents the mood of the masses. Is it that youth is as repressed culturally as the music that represents them? Could be. Politics has been dumbed down to a mush of soporific self indulgence with rebellion having been all but quashed and a lobotomised rabbit could do better than most voters when it came to explaining the ideals of the parties we now vote for. Same with music.. dumbed down and fed out of streaming self referencing media streams.

wtf happened to protest music? All the greatest stuff was associated with beliefs and ideals from diverse extremes. But now its all relationship stuff or gun car gold bling.

I miss the angst that drives creativity.

Here endeth the rant.

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Macro Man
admin
January 12, 2015 at 11:31 PM ×

Pol,

I have long thought that modern society represents the worst of both Orwell and Huxley. The military/police/security apparat in particular is frighteningly Orwellian, with the ever-increasing imposition of the State's power on the lives of ordinary citizens- viz. airport security, NSA listening, or heavily armored shock troops in Ferguson. Sadly, the increasing presence of the security forces in everyday life is still unable to prevent atrocities from Sandy Hook to Charlie Hebdo- but the security-industrial complex can always offer the counterfactual of 'yeah, but without us it would be so much worse!'

The populace is subdued into accepting it via the Huxley-ite evolution of popular culture (which now more than ever seems an oxymoron), in which a dizzying array of moron-populated reality TV shows, saccharine machine-driven music, and films and games glorifying graphic casual violence serve as the soma of the populace. If not 'a gram is better than a damn', it's 'watching a show is better than having a go'.

(There have been a few exceptions recently, from the Occupy movement to the protests turned riots over the recent spate of police killings.)

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Leftback
admin
January 12, 2015 at 11:59 PM ×

LOL. Quite happy to see the average date of songs featured on MM has moved forward slightly of late, in an attempt to save us all from OldFartdom. LB is of the opinion that every decade offers catchy classics that can be plundered with literary license. LB is reaching back to 1963 for his next such offering, a paean to his love object Dame Janet.

T. Swift has good taste and business sense, Rhode Island beach property has been beaten down since the Great recession and Westerly, RI is a great spot. Had been down there myself looking for retirement shack by the beach, in fact.

Agree completely on Orwell/Huxley, MM. In fact, I could have written that paragraph.

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Anonymous
admin
January 13, 2015 at 12:00 AM ×

Uh, so does anyone think that the ECB will announce on Jan 22 that they will start sovereign bond purchases? And what will be the size of the program?

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Leftback
admin
January 13, 2015 at 12:03 AM ×

Now for some macro thoughts.

My general view from 36,000 feet is that we are in an extreme state of fear as regards global growth, aggravated by Euro avoidance based on silly Grexit concerns. This has been reflected in four ways:

1) Extremely low yields in Europe, especially Germany.
2) Accumulation of any US asset, stocks, Treasuries and USD, leading to
3) Complete abhorrence of all commodities and associated currencies, and
4) Flight to non-commodity producing Asian markets (India, China, Japan).

To me, all of these moves seem to now be massively overdone. Relief of just one of these conditions will drive large moves in the opposite direction.

Looking forward we have a Greek election, and a ECB QE decision. Once these are out of the way, we suggest that we will see the following:

1) Buying of European risk assets (banks etc.), selling of German bunds.
2) A relief rally in the €, accentuated by forced short covering.
3) A sharp fall in DX, of which € is the largest basket component.
4) A relief rally in commodities and commodity FX, incl. AUD, BRL, RUB, GBP, NOK.
5) Rotation out of India, China, into other emerging markets (Brazil, Russia).
6) Selling of all US assets, including equities, Treasuries and USD.
7) Selling of other current "safe haven" bonds, including UK and Japan.
8) A bottom in crude oil and E&P stocks (RIG, SDRL etc..).
9) A bottom in emerging market oil producers (PBR, Lukoil)
10) A bottom in European oil companies (BP, STO, TOT, Shell, ömv, ENI).

What we are not sure about is US oil producers (flow out of $), precious metals and miners (safe haven bid v $ hedging), although we like the gold miners a lot. So we'll pass on an opinion on that lot for now.

Anyway, we are going to sell some more US bonds this week, and we even have a small short of TLT via long-dated options for the time being. The US 30y hit a new low today, we are about at the 2012 low in yields here, so a reversal wouldn't be a surprise from here.

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Leftback
admin
January 13, 2015 at 12:06 AM ×

Note that I am avoiding expression of any views about the real economy above, although I think it's understood from the above that US growth is overstated (as is China slowdown) and that EZ recovery is understated. Not saying how much, but speculator positioning in the USD is extreme.

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Super Mario
admin
January 13, 2015 at 12:16 AM ×

"Uh, so does anyone think that the ECB will announce on Jan 22 that they will start sovereign bond purchases? And what will be the size of the program?"

If I were you, I wouldn't bet against it. I can assure that it will be large enough !!!

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Saul Bollox
admin
January 13, 2015 at 12:17 AM ×

Cor, guv, central bankers really do read this blog. Innit?

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Super Mario
admin
January 13, 2015 at 12:41 AM ×

ECB QE has been so extensively telegraphed that not to QE at this point would be... well, it would be a Sinn:

Sinn says ECB Using Deflation Risk as Excuse for QE

Regular readers will be aware that once only the most extreme of the Bavarian CSU nut-jobs and their economists are railing against the dangers of inflation with CPI <0.5%, you can more or less expect intervention. Sinn is from Westfalen, but he lives in Munich now, where he works for Ifo. He's losing his marbles....

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washedup
admin
January 13, 2015 at 12:42 AM ×

LB - thx for ur thts - seem the same as ur thts from Nov/Dec
I take that back - looks like u are in profit taking mode on US 30 Y - don't blame u for that.
Also, do u like gold miners as an outrt play, or vs gold?

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Anonymous
admin
January 13, 2015 at 1:05 AM ×

http://vigilantcitizen.com/latestnews/taylor-swift-at-the-brit-awards-yet-another-illuminati-ritual/

This site has some very difficult-to-explain deconstructions of music video usage of masonic & occult symbolism, especially given the average age of their target audience

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Leftback
admin
January 13, 2015 at 1:19 AM ×

Dunno about gold, mate, but LB digs the miners. Sorry about the tiresome element of repetition in my post, all part and parcel of my long-standing habit of seeing the next trend change rather early and then having to suffer through to the turn. I saw this next one coming since DX 86 and here we are at 92.50.....

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Anonymous
admin
January 13, 2015 at 11:25 AM ×

C says,
Nico,
"Anon 7:26
if you find early Bob Marley pretentious you can go fuck yourself how about you get a name before crashing the discussion with an insult"

Given I have been 'crashing' this board for what ,a couple of years' ,then perhaps you should stop smokin' Bob's stuff.

I have always found it ironic that Marley singin' even badly about political issues can be praised and valued above say a Swift whose singing about love and and angst stuff that resonates with youngsters.
Or for example above a King Crimson ,progressive rock, progressing from where to what exactly? Morphing into Bucks Fizz?

LOL... I've drunk £200 bottles of red and £5 bottles. What I think of them has nothing to do with price and yet serves has a valid commentary of the pseudo intellectual bullshit that precludes people commenting on what they think is 'good' art.
Basically , exclusivity on whatever basis is no particular measure of 'good' IMO.

Unfortunately, I tend to find that people of a certain age (that I passed quite some time ago) rejoice in looking back with rose tinted glasses bemoaning how change has invariably been for the worse. It's more a commentary on the state of mind than anything. Let's be nice and call it the 'has been' stage of life. ;)

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abee crombie
admin
January 13, 2015 at 2:30 PM ×

2.5% US 30Year, Its held twice before. Is the third time a charm, though the curve is flatter now than in 2012

For all those ppl hating pop music I agree, but technology has brought about quite a nice renaissance in "indy" music. You just have to know where to look. For example, Pitchfork, though they are a little pretentious for me, does a good job of finding really good NEW music.

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CV
admin
January 13, 2015 at 3:19 PM ×

I more or less agree with LB's bullet points (no surprise there). Markets are certainly having a good time today, and you have to say that it is difficult to be a hater right now on the U.S. economy with those data!

Of course, labour market data are laaagging, so maybe all those unemployed welders in Texas will eventually feed into the statistics and cool them down a bit.

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washedup
admin
January 13, 2015 at 3:22 PM ×

Structured commodity linked note defaults and some major bank blowups on currency/commodity joint probability options may be the story next few weeks - good for them it all escaped the Q4 earnings press.
Negative gamma from producers puts aside (in my mind its contributed $15-20 to the slide in oil), I think we are now far beyond the territory that bad news in financial portfolios will be 'contained'.
Funnily enough, the commodity bulls assume the selling in that complex is just lopsided sentiment reading too much into the global GDP picture, when the majority of the sellers are doing so coz they have to.

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Polemic
admin
January 13, 2015 at 7:26 PM ×

Late reply to MM 11.31 - You put it perfectly.

Interesting how a little guest ditty has fired up all sorts of emotions to the point of almost raising a mutiny amongst old friends.

Whowuddathought Taylor Swift could rouse so much diverse social commentary. She wins.

Now as for markets..
A nice big sell off for the next 5 days sos i can buy in a weeks time at better prices please .. Jan the 19th be with you ( doesn't have the same ring as May the 4th be with you)

Nice to see UK inflation causing as much debate as ever. Prices go up and folks moan, prices go down and they moan and if they stay the same they complain of a totalitarian command economy. No pleasing some.

I do wonder if there is an elite snobbery in moaning about deflation .. " Oh daaaaahling, you really must speak against this deflation thing, it implies that ones economic knowledge is so much greater than ones desire for cheaper things"

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Nico G
admin
January 13, 2015 at 8:39 PM ×

C

i did not read your 'C' name under anonymous i dunno why 'anonymous' comes before your name. Am still a bit touchy from last week

it is a bad idea to discuss art here, because comparing Taylor Swift to Bob Marley will not do anyone any favor

i do not do drugs sometimes i wish i had taken that easy short cut to numbness ages ago

peace

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Anonymous
admin
January 13, 2015 at 8:46 PM ×

I've got one word for you folks who think music was just ducky way back when: Disco.

Meanwhile, instead of being outraged by Taylor Swift, I suggest you direct your ire at someone truly awful: Nikki Minaj.

- Whammer

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Nico G
admin
January 13, 2015 at 8:58 PM ×

for the sake of exposé, one of the most gifted music artists of all times recently died and there are hardly any details about his passing. He does not even have a wikipage, quite a feat in our modern times. Gio Vitanza.

here is an extra of what a fan wrote in anger - it pertains to the metal rock scene in 80s /90s but his point can easily be stretched to contemporary music where many talented will die in poverty like electric Van Goghsand while yes, that Swift makes 50m a year

" Like so many of my fave bands–the Waldos, Hanoi Rocks, Gunfire Dance, the Ultras, the Fleshtones, etc., the Coma-Tones seemed to have some really shitty luck. More superstitious observers, have even called it a hex. I don’t know why they never broke out of the cult-ghetto. With the right producer, they should have been a huge mainstream band, like the Doors, or Guns N Roses-the two bands they were most often compared to. My gut tells me racism was part of it, because their singer had way more star power, and matinee idol, brooding good looks, than any of the blonde, toothy, ass-kissing cheese-steaks, that were signed non-stop, in the metal years, and saturation-marketed all over cable tv, until the decision was made, in this past decade, to entirely cease programming rock music on cable, to help condition people to accept the new conformity of the Disneyfied, plantation-state, permanent war-economy, ushered in by the last U.S. administration, and perpetuated under the current one. It’s a damned shame, too.A big corporate rawk dude has currently been soliciting “real rockstars” to appear on his jive-ass satellite radio show, and I was just thinkin’, “Where were you when the Coma-Tones were a full-time, West Coast-based, viable proposition?” I’ll tell ya where: all those major label cock-metal bands were cowering! Quaking in their brand new cowboy boots, because so few of them could hold a candle to the mythic badass grandeur of the Coma-Tones. Maybe they shoulda bleached their hair blonde, and sucked-up to the label weasels, but those dudes were just too pure, too cool, too defiant, too poetic, and too real, to be anything but themselves. "

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Nico G
admin
January 13, 2015 at 9:07 PM ×

allow me another living example for the sake of fairness: Texacala Jones was a total shooting star in 1980s California punk scene but never got a big break

She has the charisma, talent, of 4 Janis Joplin an 3 Courtney Love

She stil performs today, and struggles to release her music

what she pulled in 1998:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5papnSqa1E

was as mustard as her first band 20 years before with whom they used to open the Gun Club concerts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BCC0Xep0OI

voila i mentioned Marley, Vitanza and Jones in a discussion about Swift i may now burn in music hell where Justin Bieber is expected to perform soon and foreva'

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Swiftie
admin
January 14, 2015 at 2:23 AM ×

CV January 12, 2015 at 1:40 PM

Prescient time to be asking about copper...

Further thoughts?

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Anonymous
admin
January 14, 2015 at 12:06 PM ×

C Says,
There has been a long historical relationship between Copper and housing. When the latter ever showed signs of recovery Copper demand picked up in anticipation.
The simple fact is housing volume has not remotely played the recovery game from the 2008 bust.
We can acknowledge that there have been price boyant niches. Boyant for various reasons ,but the reality is underlying volumes broadly speaking are still dead on their feet.
I suppose the question might be can falling yields now in conjunction with broadly falling input costs do what policy has not yet managed to do which is to stir the ashes of housing to light? I don't have the answer to that ,but I know what data I would be looking at to monitor the issue.

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Polemic
admin
January 14, 2015 at 12:11 PM ×

C - and that every new house I have known built recently has plastic piping rather than copper, I from the wiring I can't see what else needs copper - apart from the brass door knocker.

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Anonymous
admin
January 14, 2015 at 12:32 PM ×

C says,
Pol,
You make a valid point certainly regarding changes to usage in the UK. I've noticed the same thing ,but I don't know whether building methods and usage have changed globally in the same way ,or not? Do you have anything on that? I could see how the linkage might be broken.

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Leftback
admin
January 14, 2015 at 12:58 PM ×

OMT gets the green light from the court. Even the Germans are not going to stand in the way here. The ECB is already late to the global easing party so any additional delay might be quite destabilizing.

Yen catching a bid today, never a good sign for the equity markets. Not 100% convinced of this yet, but media noise suggests this might turn out to be a very good week to quietly sell the rest of one's US fixed income and exit for the time being. It's been a great run.

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Anonymous
admin
January 14, 2015 at 1:39 PM ×

C says
Music, never quiet subscribed to the idea that there is no bad music ,but I'm onboard with the idea that what your thoughts are of music depends on where you're 'viewing' it from.
Can any music today evoke the same emotional response from me as a favourite played in my youth? No , because that music comes with a lot of additional baggage. The first grope, the first joint , lot's of firsts etc etc.
However ,that doesn't mean that music today is any less 'good' than that of yesteryear imo. What's changed is me and the fact there are not too many more firsts to be had.

For example ,what King Crimson played and excited with in the 60's early 70's might I say get yourself to spotify and try some Wolfmother ,or Audioslave.
Did you like Free then get some Alterbridge today.
Did you have a favourite Folk singer then today try some James McMorrow.
Like it with a little more soul then get some Amos Lee , or Ray LeMontagne.
Seriously for anyone who thinks music today fails against yesteryear then you need to look a little harder. It's still out there as good as it ever was.

Nico,
"Peace", indeed, life is too short :)
Thanks for Texacala.

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Anonymous
admin
January 14, 2015 at 1:45 PM ×

Retail Sales = LB's USD turn?

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CJ
admin
January 14, 2015 at 1:58 PM ×

While I agree that EUR and JPY can squeeze higher in the immediate on the back of this retail sales numbers, I would remind you that the primary driver of cross-asset px action in the post-crisis years has been liquidity. In that light, even if the Fed stays on hold through 2015, you still have ECB QE and a likely increase in ETF and REIT purchases by the BOJ in mid-2015. The relative balance sheet expansion in the Eurozone and Japan should still be a major factor.

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hipper
admin
January 14, 2015 at 2:15 PM ×

With such a one sided positioning in USD, only a small spark needed to reverse it. The news, whatever it is, will always be able to be bent to fit the story. So maybe this time it's retail.

Oil not responding to USD reversal is nicely highlighting the magnitude of the fundamental balance issue. Gold on the other hand, well GDX still looks very very nice.

This time the QE story has been so well seeded into market participants, that there is no way for Draghi to make more excuses why it isn't implemented with an imminent schedule and get away without serious punishment, resulting in very serious threats to the survival of EZ.

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washedup
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January 14, 2015 at 2:25 PM ×

@hipper - real issue now is convexity in bond land - that will be the driving force next few days - dollar will weaken primarily because JPY will strengthen (MM has alluded to that in the previous post), but don't see DXY dropping below 90 before resuming the bull trend.
As for the bottom pickers in commodities, the only think worse than stinky fingers, are stinky figures covered with oil!
Natty looks good though - good 3-5% upside from here.

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Anonymous
admin
January 14, 2015 at 3:15 PM ×

Why does Carney keep talking up ECB QE? I've never hear the head ofa Central Bank talking up another CB's actions like this.

Draghi whatsapp'n him?

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Polemic
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January 14, 2015 at 3:21 PM ×

If like me you think that leverage is always the cause of large dislovations, then how many trades out there at the moment are leveraged upon the premise for higher US rates and USD?

I have a fiver on this going like last year and as mkt gets an idea that rates will stay flat for another year then everything reverses and higher risk yield is bought again. ...

i posted in the other place

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Anonymous
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January 14, 2015 at 3:53 PM ×

7yr UST from 2.08% to 1.58% in just 13 trading sessions

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washedup
admin
January 14, 2015 at 4:08 PM ×

anyone have a good theory on why the massacre in REITS in the last few days? One would think that a low interest rate environment would suit them rather well - what am i missing?

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andrea chiu
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January 20, 2015 at 7:04 AM ×

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