Exclusive footage of the SNB board meeting that led to today's decision


Previous
Next Post »

35 comments

Click here for comments
January 15, 2015 at 12:46 PM ×

Ahahaah wonderful! Hayek isn't so happy. ..

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
January 15, 2015 at 1:21 PM ×

LOL.

J.C.Tricky himself just came out and said Super Mario has to pull the trigger. Can any doubt remain that a massive ECB QE is coming?

Imagine being a currency hedger at a large Swiss exporter today... ? "Boss, I think my Bloomberg is broken, it's showing CHF up 20%, hahaha..........
F^%&*#$% !!!!

Reply
avatar
Macro Man
admin
January 15, 2015 at 1:25 PM ×

Chairman of Swatch been all over the wires and he doesn't seem too impressed.

Reply
avatar
washedup
admin
January 15, 2015 at 2:23 PM ×

the chairman of swatch called this a 'tsunami' - i couldn't hear the rest i think the room filed up with water.

Reply
avatar
washedup
admin
January 15, 2015 at 2:27 PM ×

I think we are close to the point (next 2 yrs) where automated/HF trading is completely banned - there will be some algo sponsored event in equities (a mkt that regulators care abt) where they go down 40%, and unlike the flash crash, stay there.

Reply
avatar
abee crombie
admin
January 15, 2015 at 4:36 PM ×

just adding to the volatility theme which I think is probably the only consensus trade that really works this year. Yes Eurostoxx are rallying, but i dont feel comfortable here.

anyone know of a good FX hedged ETF for Europe beside HEDJ

Reply
avatar
Mr. T
admin
January 15, 2015 at 4:40 PM ×

I took off all my long US bonds this morning. The trade might work still but the trade was really big and this does not seem like the right time to be employing a lot of leverage. F'ing crazy here.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 15, 2015 at 5:52 PM ×

"SNB’s decision to scrap the franc’s euro peg sent the Swiss currency surging, so much so that the CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (FXF) is easily Thursday’s top performing non-leveraged ETF with a gain of over 12% on volume that has already reached nearly 20 times the trailing three-month daily average. Putting FXF’s move into context, the ETF entered Thursday down 2.5% since the start of the year and Thursday’s surge by the franc has more than wiped out FXF’s 10.3% two-year loss. Additionally, it is extremely rare that a currency ETF, particularly of the non-leveraged variety, to be a day’s leading on a percentage basis. FXF’s 12%-plus gain today is more than double that of the day’s second-best ETF, the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM)."

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 15, 2015 at 6:00 PM ×

"IMF's Christine Lagarde said the Swiss central bank's Thursday announcement that it would remove a 3-year-old cap of 1.20 francs per euro was "a bit of a surprise." Lagarde said she had not been warned about the move ahead of time. Still, she said it was possible that Thomas Jordan, chairman of the Swiss National Bank's governing board, may have reached out to someone else at the IMF. She said she would "reserve judgement on the pertinence of the move" until she discusses it further with Jordan."

Pertinence, I say! lol

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 15, 2015 at 6:15 PM ×

The IMF thought they are the boss? They are merely the front man/woman!

Is this the moment that you should be fearless when everyone else is afraid? I mean folks receiving margin calls surely are selling everything now. Maybe as abee crombie said a few posts ago, buy something valuable now and sleep on it till mid year.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 15, 2015 at 6:39 PM ×

Jordan seemed a little to complacent about the volatility the SNB has unleashed. Thinks fx will gradually drift back into position. I understand the logic but you can't rip someone's face off and expect them to keeping on coming back.

That volatility crescendo.

Reply
avatar
washedup
admin
January 15, 2015 at 6:48 PM ×

anon 6:15
What evidence do u see that everyone is afraid? I was actually surprised MM characterized yesterday's price action as 'panic'. We are nowhere close to what we saw even in Oct, let alone the 2008-11 regime. VIX is a balmy 22, pretty far from the 30+ level which has signaled durable capitulation in the past.
Sure there is a lethal short squeeze in bonds, but I would humbly suggest the equity markets are happily whistling past the graveyard piling into US names, so 'cash is king' this certainly is not - no one is stockpiling guns and beans a la late 2008 or aug 2010, and I would argue the general sense is Janet has this under control, if only she'd stop pretending she can get away with a rate rise.

Reply
avatar
Leftback
admin
January 15, 2015 at 7:27 PM ×

According to certain web sites, there are a large number of global macro funds that were short the Swissy before this event. Now, it's beyond my understanding WHY anyone would have decided to be short the Swissy. It was clear that hot money was chasing CHF and that the SNB was having a devil of a time maintaining the peg. This seems like the ultimate example of picking up pennies in front of steamrollers.

I think we have to assume that more than one fund is going to be blown up by this. Hard to say how big or how significant this is. Still trying to get my head around this, really. It didn't take a genius to see that the peg wouldn't last for ever.

In terms of lottery tickets, out of the money FXF calls would have been fun. To be honest, messing with CHF had never entered my head.

We are totally out of TLT and AGG, slightly early as is usual. It's the old problem of looking ahead too soon, before jumping the fence immediately in front of me, and not fully appreciating the extent of the idiocy of those who were short bonds into the New Year.

Looking at the present landscape, I think there is in fact fear, confusion, extreme lows in yields and a lot of uncertainty, and that VIX at this level is actually extremely high for what is still a global CB manipulated regime.

So for my money, all the indicators are flashing, it's time to buy, greedy when others are fearful, crude oil running in the streets, and all the rest of the clichés. Emerging market bonds and European stocks are the place to be, they will outperform as weakness in US data becomes more apparent.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 15, 2015 at 7:28 PM ×

PPI down 20% (annualized) in December

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 15, 2015 at 8:00 PM ×

@washedup,

IMO, it is still too early to pull the 2008-2011 examples as the template.

My logic is simple as this: If SNB had inside knowledge or super-sophisticated, its decision likely indicates that ECB is going to nuclear bomb the market, as many folks here agreed. Based on impacts of previous CBs' actions, shouldn't we see spooz jumping, just like the EU equities? The most likely reason that spooz is still down is that some funds are liquidating positions to raise cash. After they complete (probably by the end of the day?), we have 1) option expiration tomorrow, 2) holiday next Monday, and 3) ECB next Thursday. I am willing to bet that we should see a decent rebound.

Reply
avatar
January 15, 2015 at 8:26 PM ×

What's the price of gas in Switzerland this morning?

Reply
avatar
abee crombie
admin
January 15, 2015 at 8:33 PM ×

If the January barometer is worth anything the Spoos are not going to repeat the "bounce after 3 down days" rule they did last year. Indeed we already have 5 down days in a row, though total decline is not that much at 3.5%. I hate it when a H&S pops up in the S&P chart bc its such an obvious fade, but this time I think it might work. LB, I'll see your longs but I'll wait till 1800 to start buying or conversely for R2k or NQ to make new highs

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
January 15, 2015 at 9:24 PM ×

danger danger high voltage

it's been a stop run festival on Eurostoxx, they cleaned all the pre-Draghi longs' stops hard down, then cleaned the 'humble' guys who shorted the wedge break on momentum, like you should...

fun day. but very uncomfortable feeling i share with you abee - i still fail to see how such volatility could be resolved on the upside i smell a big fish here the central wankers are indeed losing it and trying too many tricks a day before expiry, it is happening every month now

one big Swiss snowball

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 15, 2015 at 9:28 PM ×

SNB to recycle their European bond purchases into ECB's QE.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 15, 2015 at 9:54 PM ×

"We are totally out of TLT and AGG, slightly early as is usual. It's the old problem of looking ahead too soon, before jumping the fence immediately in front of me, and not fully appreciating the extent of the idiocy of those who were short bonds into the New Year."

...What's the old joke about going broke being right but early?

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
January 15, 2015 at 10:01 PM ×

"SNB to recycle their European bond purchases into ECB's QE"

so the wily Suisses edged all their euro holdings/exposure before sending it down 20% vs their franc is that politically correct?

[cheesy fondue smiley]

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 15, 2015 at 10:16 PM ×

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL6N0UU3TM20150115?irpc=932

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 15, 2015 at 10:58 PM ×

@washed up - do you have anything to support your contention on algo trading or is it just a hunch ?

I have long felt that a breakdown in liquidity in corporate credit and pockets of equities will lead to a relaxation of the Volcker rule .....at some point

-rossco

Reply
avatar
washedup
admin
January 15, 2015 at 11:23 PM ×

anon 8:00 - you are making my point - no panic yet.

@rosco - I think HFT is most likely to get the blame for everything that ails various markets, and they are too cerebral and secretive to appear like they need to be 'saved'. Banks are at-least a necessary evil in the eyes of lawmakers, these guys are a mere nuisance (good luck explaining their alleged liquidity providing role to Sen. Boxer!).

Once volatility exceeds a certain level all stops will be pulled just like they were in 08 (remember the bans on short selling financials?) and the witch hunting will begin in earnest - no where close to that point yet (then again yrs truly tht crude was going to $50 when it was trading at $100, just that it would take a couple years!)

As for the volcker rule being overturned, dream on - the trend is very clear, banks will serve as useful idiots while they can, and eventually be regulated away into utilities - and hedge funds, well, winners and losers as usual i suppose.

Not calling for a demise to capitalism (will leave that to zero hedge), just that when a regime, namely the liberalization of finance, has existed for 30 years people refuse to believe it can go the other way - it can, and is.

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 16, 2015 at 1:28 AM ×

More nonsense from the Tower of Babel

Yellen Signals She Won't Babysit Markets in Turmoil

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-15/yellen-leaves-greenspan-put-behind-as-she-charts-rate-increase.html

Reply
avatar
Bruce in Tennessee
admin
January 16, 2015 at 2:06 AM ×

Japan down 350

US futs down >100..(8 pm US central)

..Tie me to the mast, boys, I want to hear the Sirens' song...

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
January 16, 2015 at 2:23 AM ×

Every time just like the last
On her ship tied to the mast
To distant lands
Takes both my hands
Never a frown with Golden Brown

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 16, 2015 at 2:30 AM ×

FX Trader shares his woes...

"Let me share you a short story...
I placed a few sell stop orders just around the 1.2000 level on EUR/CHF a few months ago.
Orders were filled exactly at given level today, but a few hours later, got an email from S4xo support, that execution prices may be revisited...
During the day, I contacted the support, tried to ask them for some help and information, about my position, is it “real”/well priced/ etc... they couldn’t say anything concrete.

Now I got the following message from them :

“For executed fills that occurred between the times of 09:30:00 GMT to 09:41:30, a EURCHF price of 0.9625 will be applied
For executed fills that occurred between the times of 09:41:30 GMT to 10:01:00, a EURCHF price of 0.88 will be applied “

Seems like a bad joke for me. 0.9625 was touched more than 5 minutes later than the peg broke.
My orders were several months old and placed almost at 1.2000.
During the whole day, I couldn’t get any information from them.
...and it’s S4xobank!?!

I think this behavior is not acceptable. What do you think about it?
Is it worth to make some complaints or to seek legal advice? "

FX Trader

"Banks are telling Brokers they are breaking trades from yesterday because those Rates were "out of market"

So Broker fills Customer (s) based on Bank Trade ... but today those trades made with the Banks are being repriced and the Brokers are suffering the losses ... obviously more is going to come from this."

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 16, 2015 at 2:33 AM ×

Excelmarkets NOTICE

http://www.excelmarkets.com/

Reply
avatar
Polemic
admin
January 16, 2015 at 2:50 AM ×

Anon 2.30. Some people need to understand how markets work before they play in them. Or at least read the small print.

Reply
avatar
mattyboy
admin
January 16, 2015 at 2:54 AM ×

messy overnight action...nky -2.68%, dow futs -138 pts...USTs settling out around unchd after the monumental rally last session but with CPI on deck tomorrow you've got to think anything less than a consensus print and theyre gonna go bid no lid again
honestly next week even a sniff of not enough QE from Draghi and its going to be curtains for risk... it was amazing watching stocks today generally not giving a sh_t about the squeezathon taking place in USTs and the $5 plunge in crude oil. CFTC positioning will make interesting reading tomorrow. if you get a clean up of those stubborn treasury spec shorts then perhaps getting short USTs into the bull whisperers next week is the right trade...

on a final note i do agree that theres a distinct feeling of somethings not quite right at the moment. i cant figure how we can have such carnage in commodities, such panicky moves in bonds, and yet SPX sitting what 80 points off its *all time all time highs*

one last thing and i might need a rope because i think i went too far down the rabbit hole... the move in gold - its basically broken the long term downward trend now coincident with the SNB removing the peg to unleash the value of yet another safe haven.. just made me wonder has all the smart money gotten their positions on ready for *something big*? ok get me out of the hole its scary. good luck tomorrow all

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
January 16, 2015 at 3:51 AM ×

spoos are considered a safe haven

try to even write it! until you write it you do not realize how absurd this is

Amen

Reply
avatar
Anonymous
admin
January 16, 2015 at 4:01 AM ×

LB - "Emerging market bonds and European stocks are the place to be, they will outperform as weakness In US data becomes more apparent. "

Can you please explain your logic behind expecting EM debt outperforming with US weakness?

Cheers
E

Reply
avatar
Nico G
admin
January 16, 2015 at 7:10 AM ×

SNB made CHF 38bn last year (nice) which enabled them to cover the losses of de-pegging

from pragcap

Reply
avatar
theta
admin
January 18, 2015 at 10:04 PM ×

@anon 4:01, perhaps he means that poor US data will keep yields low and thus provide a bid for EM debt via hunt for yield in a ZIRP world? But then how does that fit with calling the top on TLT?

Reply
avatar