FWIW...

Macro Man's model suggests NFP of 250 today.




Good luck!
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Anonymous
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July 3, 2014 at 2:25 PM ×

Another solid NFP print, but I'm not sure the data really matters lately in terms of prices. The hand waving "too far too fast" people short equities will find some nit to pick, or point to how far we are past yellens initial U6 target we are but it does not matter.

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abee crombie
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July 3, 2014 at 3:15 PM ×

So will Yellen keep the mantra up when unemployment has a 5 handle. Maybe well get 2% rates with a 4% unemployment, but nothing higher, as that surely would be way too constrictive (though Greenspan was widely cited for inflaming the housing bubble by holding rates down at 2%, my how times have changed)

In a sense are a turning Japanese, except with a roaring stock market.

revisions were higher as well.

5 Years after 2009 and we still cant talk about normalizing rates, this is kinda nuts when you put it in perspective

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Macro Man
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July 3, 2014 at 3:41 PM ×

As I said on twitter (oh god, have I really just written that?):

average u rate over:

10y: 6.9
20y: 6.0
30y: 6.2
40y: 6.5
50y: 6.1
60y: 6.0

Current reading 6.1. Hey Fed, unemployment still 'elevated'?

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Anonymous
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July 3, 2014 at 4:07 PM ×

At some point you have to stop positioning on what you think the fed should do versus what they say (and are) doing. Ideally, that was 1000 points ago on the 'spooz, but now is probably as good a time as any. Wasn't the gist of Yellens speech yesterday that the fed shouldn't pop bubbles, that it was a mistake to pop the housing bubble, and that anyways, higher rates wouldn't have done anything? I read that as "I'm targeting main street, I don't really care what happens on wall street".

There are valid arguments on either side, but if thats what she is saying, and the ECB/BOJ are right there with her, and there is no dissent on the fed, it seems crazy to piss into the wind against this.

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abee crombie
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July 3, 2014 at 4:46 PM ×

re Anon 4:07

I'm not short stocks, much to the contrary I am playing the game much like everyone else.

But I have a feeling that interest rate markets, especially the short end, is going to awake from a long slumber very soon. Beware of bond vigilantes trading Eurodollars

CS Fear index, the cost of selling puts vs buying calls on SPX just went nutty. Seems like the options market doesnt believe in the rally through the autumn.

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Anonymous
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July 4, 2014 at 9:32 PM ×

What happened?

http://imgur.com/wK6gHWU

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