Wednesday, November 07, 2012
So that's that then. The US X-Factor is over, we hope the winner, as chosen by YOU the voting public, goes on to have many hits and the $6bio spent on producing the show are recovered through record sales. We know that Mitt really, really wanted it and his dream has been shattered but hey, you gotta give it 110% and he is really grateful to the voters for getting him this far, its been onehelluva experience he wouldn't have missed for the world, we are all really best buddies and he would just like to thank ... yaaawwwwn.
So what next ?
If you are a Republican market participant do you now -
a) Sell out all your fossil fuel investments
b) Buy gold as its obvious the US economy is now going to be a disaster and QE will run out of control (plan A).
c) Sell everything as doing so may push markets lower and the resultant price action can be held up as a vote of no confidence for Mr. O. whilst screaming "Money printing and Toldja so"
d) Nothing - you knew that Romney wouldn't get it anyway
e) Wonder what all the fuss is about, plan Thanksgiving and get back to trying to haul your yacht out of the trees in your neighbour's garden.
If you are a Democrat market participant do you now -
a) Stay in bed with a hangover after partying hard celebrating a win that you think makes you special.
TMM always tend to see election victory parties as a bit strange. Errrr ..you are sort of by definition representative of the largest chunk of the voting population so what's so special? In extremis if we had an arbitrary election to vote for either mass public puppy executions followed by global nuclear holocaust OR no change to current status quo, would a resultant massive global party as 99.9999% of the population celebrated their stunning victory over certain death REALLY be justified? If so, then in true "Olympic Economics" style, we ought to be running one every month.
b) Buy Gold as you need presents for christmas, and well, you can never wear enough gold.
c) Buy everything as doing so may push markets higher and the resultant price action can be held up as a vote of confidence for Mr. O. whilst screaming "Money printing and Toldja so"
d) Nothing - you knew Obama would get it anyway.
e) Wonder what all the fuss was about, plan Thanksgiving and get back to finding a job.
If you are Team Macro Man do you now -
a) Just buy the dip (JBFTD) as it straight-lines up til Xmas.
b) Sell Gold because we really dont think that Obamafication of the Bendral Reserve is going to directly lead to an inflation gift in our Christmas Stockings.
c) Scream "Nahnahnahnah" with your fingers in your ears when anyone mentions cliffs.
d) Get ready for JPY to dump and instead of buying risk in FX via Usd crosses do it all verses yen.
e) Run a sweepstake on which subject will now replace "US Election" as top of the "you gotta trade on this, aren't we clever" league of analysis filling their inboxes. We guess Greece's X Factor.
f) Wonder what all the fuss is about and get back to a 2001 L'Esprit de Pennautier