Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Decoding the Soundbites

Decoding the soundbites...

GREECE - EU-IMF FEUD ERUPTS OVER GREEK DEBT

Market response: If even the EU and IMF cant agree on a package what hope for EU/IMF-Greece resolution? Bad news Greece is going to blow up. Sell Europe, sell "risk".

TMM response: It is preety clear that the IMF and EU are not going to let Greece go and just like TMM and Mrs TMM may fight over how to bring up the children, we certainly don't want them dead. Greece has funded all its bills today and the level of progress Greece has made with its budget is impressive. This is a non-story.

GERMAN ZEW INDEX FALLS TO MINUS 15.7 VS EST. GAIN TO MINUS 10

Market response: Germany is going down the pan as local sentiment is collapsing, this must be forward looking as to market price, so sell Europe.

TMM response: TMM have never understood why people look at the ZEW. It's a survey of "investors" not "business". The IFO is worth looking at, but not ZEW. Presumably if we going to react to investor sentiment surveys in this manner, we should be selling equities when the AAII Bearish sentiment survey shows people are bearish. Or buying USTs when the CFTC shows investors are bullish on bonds. Why do we view these as being counter-indicators, but the Zew as directional? Do we somehow think german private banks and funds know something special? Given they were the ones that bought all that fantasticly well-performing ABS CDOs and Southern Periphery debt, we are somewhat sceptical that they do not know much at all, other than how to buy structured toxic waste.

REPUBLICANS SHIFT STANCE ON TAXING WEALTHY

Market Response: Stay quiet as it doesn't quite fit what we were saying about the fiscal cliff last week and anyway have you seen the ZEW and Greece (we may adapt our view on the cliff though).

TMM response: As we were saying "Policy Uncertainty Falls"  - and we would add that those rumours we mentioned with respect to Nancy Pelosi are friming up.

GERMANY PRESS: GREECE TO GET E44 BILLION IN AID IN ONE PAYMENT - MNI

Market response: Oh, so Greece IS going to be OK? Better buy all that Euro stuff back.

TMM response: It'll probably be denied, but it's a hint that Greece will be OK.

RTRS - GERMAN FINMIN SPOKESWOMAN, ASKED ABOUT NEWSPAPER REPORT, SAYS NO FINAL DECISION YET ON GREEK LOANS

Market response: I'm not selling again, I've just been taken out... I'll wait for more news.

TMM response: Back to sleep.

11 comments:

VandalsStoleMyHandle said...

This Greek saga reminds me of when I was a kid, and I managed to convince myself numerous times, despite such expectations being repeatedly dashed, that this time, this time, Spiderman couldn't possibly escape from the fiery inferno / killer sharks with lasers on their heads / what have you, and that next week's edition would mark the end of an era.

Looks like large swathes of investors are still hankering after a No-Prize.

venividivici said...

for a wanking punter you are exceedingly confident and very ripe for humiliation (which you will not acknowledge).

Anonymous said...

Oi, Venividiveni

Better a wanking punter than a punting wanker, eh?

tombofceciliamettela said...

all you brits are so fearful of humiliation its scandalous

Anonymous said...

While the Yanks wear it like a comfortable pear of socks.....

Anonymous said...

I have followed this blog for many years, and very much appreciate all of your posts, and your sharp tongue directed at frequent market nonsense.

I am commenting for the first time to just point out that it feels like the global business cycle has finally turned, and bulls and bears alike are mistakenly attributing the risk-off nature of the past 2 months to the usual macro suspects of the past few years. Companies are making less money, plain and simple, and I see little to change that trend in 2013.

Please dismiss the headlines, I enjoy that. But I would be much more wary of dismissing the price action.

Anonymous said...

C Says'
Anon 1.06,
If,as I suspect,you attribute your remarks to the genral weakness in the top line reported in this quarter,I have to say it makes me cautious as well.I have simply no way of knowing if this is a temporary phenomena courtesy of events of earlier in 2012 when Europe made such an arse of sorting out it's mess.Or,the 64k question,is it likely to be the earliest warning of a trend change.

I think this a fair point,and actually I think the media noise is just that .A deflection if you will from the more important stuff which you have alluded to.

Polemic said...

First.. i ll step into the ring to seperate and call time on any US/UK spat here in comments. More irrelavant than the eu.imf one.. peace love and harmony etc

Now to thank anon 1.06..
Thanks for raising a debate which of a complexity that probable deserves more than a comment, so we are about to put down our thoughts as a new micro post... we could carry on that debate there.
Price action? Yes, agree but marry that to zew and recent other positional surveys and there may be evidence it doesnt have to continue..

But then as wanking punter wankers we may be wrong..


Post to come..

Leftback said...

The Generals and twins story is a better read than this week's financial media tripe..... innit?

Leftback said...

Kebabs and feta cheese are on sale today, apparently. Might be time to whip up a small Greek salad at lunch, using the Falling Knives / Kevlar gloves technique...

The kabuki market continues.... the puppet media aren't even pretending very seriously that this is more than a head fake in Washington.

EURUSD has been retracing a good fraction of its July-September rally. Looks like we may have seen a reversal this morning off the low at 10am GMT. Basically we may be seeing approximately a 50% fib retrace of that late summer move from 1,20 ish to 1,32 ish, which would be 1,26 ish. See, we are quants here too.

Trolling/abusive commentary and Brit/Euro slagging is way up this week, and that has almost always coincided with a major market turn. You guys should take a breather and look up some twins jokes.

Sentiment might decay a little more before the dénouement, however. Who knew this business would become as intensely psychological as hostage negotiations? In this case, the Greeks are the hostages.

obat jantung koroner said...

Nice informatins bro!!!