Thursday, March 15, 2012
TMM have experienced a six standard deviation day already and its only early morning. We didn't think that it would be possible for all the following to happen at once.
2) Drivers, who despite being able to see to the next bend in the road as if there was no fog, insisting on doing 25mph AND switching on 3 kilowatts of red fog lights to indicate to the queue of cars IMMEDIATELY behind them that the driver of said 25mph car is a complete and utter moron.
3) Every traffic light en-route to have been hit by what can only be assumed to be the STUXNET virus. If that was you Iran, well done, score 1 point for bringing approach roads to London to a halt. IF however it wasn't you, can someone please fire some more public sector workers from the Department of Transport. Preferably the same ones that insist that closing lanes on the A303 is for OUR safety. We'll decide the levels of risk we'll take thank you.
4) Getting on the tube and realising that phone is left visible in the car in the car park.
5) USD/JPY - short and stopped at the top. So now not short.
6) AUD/CAD did turn but we listened to those who told us not to buy just yet.
7) Had hours of angst when daughter's Facebook status had "is looking forward to being a mum" before uncovering that she had been "fraped".
8) Took off their Bond shorts way too early (like, early last week) and so missed out on the past few days' carnage.
9) Lost money this month despite being bullish. TMM suck.
10) Two of TMM separately received £100 fines from HMRC for a late tax return despite it being said
thieves department that failed to supply them with the code they needed to fill in online. TMM will return to pen and paper next year.
So TMM have decided that today they are the opposite of King Midas and will, for today only (they hope), be appearing as King Sadim - everything they touch that is golden turns to rubbish.
With that in mind here is a list of things they are about to touch which will most likely turn to rubbish later.
1) Long AUD/MXN. MXN is ringing Tabloid, TDI and DPI signals (see glossary) in TMM's minds, even if on a macro basis it is beautiful.
2) Short NOK/JPY. Same same, but different. Just as set for a correction and the Norges Bank yesterday was a trigger. Look at that chart!
3) Short FTSE - having cut longs and seen the nano-correction unwind, we are going to have a "JFDI" last swing but will be out at intraday highs. Not Macro but it may well become so if it works!
4) Short Gold through options. The hunt for the next funding currency is on as the USD loses its obviousness. JPY? Well, so obvious everyone is chasing tails and 85.00, but this is SO predicted it's probably NOT going to get there. CHF? Yes, Yes, Yes. And a nice floor too. But we have that already. So what about that funding currency of the late 1990s? The one that Ex-Investment banks, when they apparently DID have morals and work in the customer's interest, kindly persuaded the UK Treasury to participate in. GOLD! As gold goes down fast, up slower and as vols are still low, we are going to look at 2-month low delta puts. This trade is perfectly set up to be reverse Midas.
5) Long lunch. TMM have discovered that angst is best countered in a most un-American way. Instead of stepping up to plates, showing one's mettle or facing adversity they would much rather reminisce about the 90s with a nice steak and bottle of red.