Tuesday, March 20, 2012
After unanimous agreement TMM have decided that given a choice between doing what they are currently doing and skipping hand in hand with a loved one through woods dappled with spring sunshine then they would be out through the emergency exit and down the stairs (walking, not running, holding the hand rail and in single file as per health and safety instructions) and bounding liberated as washing-powder advert people, across over-verdant grass towards a wood that would be straight out of an AA Milne book. BUT unfortunately they haven't got that choice and instead are watching stuff happen that isn't happening.
First out of the "didn't happen happenings" blocks was China. Well China DID happen, but a coup and the complete collapse of their internal political machine didn't. If the People's Republic wanted to completely discredit "The Epoch" then this morning's shenanigans was a class act. Rumours of gunfire linked to a story written in Washington 12 hours earlier and a general Asian equity slide congealed into a brief "coup in China" flurry. Now TMM are certainly not in the position to know any more about the internal bitch-fights within the People's Party than anyone else, but they do know a market needing a story when they see one. Whatever may happen in the future, for now The Epoch appears to have moved swiftly from "interesting insight into internal Chinese politics for western observers" to "Falun Gong sponsored dodgy rag with a mission, to be taken with a pinch of salt".
Sovereign CDS that did not happen. TMM have been in the bunker for a while waiting for reinforcements to support their core belief that Sovereign CDS is a rubbish product and so are pleased to see today two stories (here and here) that got our full support. So we are very comfortable in re-announcing that the happening of sovereign CDS as a product fit for purpose did not happen.
Next on the didn't happen list, but OK, may be on the yet to happen list, is a large market sell off. This morning might have looked like it is, or was, but TMM will not happily admit that a real pull back (that they DO want) is underway until we have a day that sees the US SELL rather than buy back any previous sessions sell offs. A trend that have been so prevalent for the past few weeks. TMM are being buffeted by cross winds of technicals vs long term fundamentals. The Soothsayer is screaming sell in Spooz and its correlated FX crosses and it looks as though we have a combined asset move. So although we would love to see a good old fashioned turnaround Tuesday we can't believe it has happened... yet.
Now this we really wish had happened but didn't - Being held in our short USDJPY positions, short FTSE positions and some stuff that is so RV complex you really don't want to know. We thought it had happened, but in fact it hadn't happened. We were stopped at a catalogue of "are you sure it was really there" rates that have us licking our wounds, cursing illiquid products, re-entering at cost and magnanimously blaming ourselves because we are obviously Muppets.
And finally, footballer Fabrice Muamba who effectively happened to die on the soccer pitch last Saturday. A miracle of survival, circumstance and modern medicine have combined miraculously to result in it not happening. Extraordinary.