Friday, March 23, 2012

13 Questions - Lucky dip.

Team Macro Man really are at a loss for anything interesting to write about so fall back on one of their favorites - 20 questions, but can't even manage that. So here are 13.

1) Are you looking for a dip to buy on?

a) Yes, a small correction would suit technically before I get in for the big one.
b) No, this is going straight up.
c) No, because this is not going to be a dip, it's really going to tank.  

2) Are all your friends looking for a dip to buy on?

a) Yes, but I m sure its still not consensus.
b) Yes, like everyone else.
c) No, I don't have any friends because I don't believe in a dip.

3) Have you any new macro reasons to sell that weren't there (and to be honest were stronger) 2 months ago when prices were 15% cheaper?

a) Chinaeuroperipherlalsunemploymentgreeceportugaliran barfff.
b) Errrrr.
c) This chart says .. NO WE SAID MACRO.

4) Which would you rather be?  

a) How you are positioned right now.
b) Long from lower down and not having fought the rally.
c) Only just taking profit on longs and now joining the "it will dippers".

5) Is the current move in peripheral European bonds

a) A sign of something major brewing in Europe.  
b) Just a generalised move in global bonds combined with a relaxation of post LTRO purchases.  
c) A straw to cling to.

6) What do you do in a quiet market?

a) Stay small long as you know "Never short a quiet market".
b) Whip up a panic using some extraneous factoid about china/Europe and try your best to make it a non-quiet market.
c) Go to lunch.

7) Is this Volatility sell off a sign of

a) A real calm, reflecting that problems have been solved.  
b) A new real trade opportunity based on fundamental and technical analysis.
c) Desperation as we have missed this rally so are selling vol for premium.

8) If you are a hedge fund PM your views on MXN are

a) Just own it, its the buy to counter anything you want to sell.
b) Flashing warning signals now your Mum has called suggesting you own MXN as per the article in Good Housekeeping.  
c) It's the next fire in a night club.

9) Osborne's UK budget was

a) A way of robbing mediumly well-off pensioners of their above average final salary pensions that have been unthreatened by anything over the past 5 years.  
b) A class political manoeuvre.
c) Another excuse for the BBC to interview who ever is worse off (someone always is) and then their mother and blame government cuts.

10) The US takes markets higher everyday after Europe tries to sell it because.

a) They are in the driving seat of growth.
b) The switching from bonds to equities is a long slow glacial move that isn't worth fighting.
c) They ain't frightened of nuthin' unlike those European surrender monkeys.  

11) Apple shares are

a) Cheap on many measures.
b) Like many stock markets showing a technical top and with that in mind lets put them in the dip bucket.
c) To be used as the new European Currency as they are backed by a religious belief  rather than that of an unelected committee who keep breaking their own rules.
d) Will only go down if it is discovered that Apple products are made using whale fat mixed with bankers bonuses, wrapped in a nuclear weapon, Zionist, seal clubbing, child torturing slime of refined oil products (produced by melting down rainforests) and made in a secret factory run by the illuminati whose funds go to make GM crops.

12) The trend is your friend until.

a) It ends.
b) It dips through your stop-loss and then reverses back in the original direction sticking 2 fingers up as it leaves you behind.
c) Your wife calls and says that she's met this nice new trend and would like you to move out but as the trend hasn't a job you will have to keep paying.  

13) The best burgers in London are from

a) Hawksmoor.
b) Goodman.
c) Don't be daft with all your fancy food, its the BK Whopper or a McTasty.

TMM apologise for the lack of posts but there really has been little to say. We wish you a lovely weekend and may the sun dapple the woods you cycle in.


Polemic said...

And before there is any debate, the answer to 13 is b. No question.

WellRed said...

Do they have Fat Burger in London?

Polemic said...

If they have we havn't found it..

Anonymous said...

Sorry but the best burger in London has got to be:


Nic said...

1 - a
2 - a Yeah most people I know are getting ready to buy...
3 - c
4 - b - isnt everyone?
5 - b
6 - a
7 - what volatility - have you seen the TVIX?
8 - c
9 - b rearranging the deck chairs
10 - c muppets
11 - b
12 - b
13 - a

It took me 8 goes to prove I am not a robot. I would ignore my replies

Anonymous said...

14. The most apt comment about Q1 2012 USD/YEN would be:

a. Pfwoooor!!!
b. I told so.
c. b-b-b-b-u-t my Guru (and my friends on ZH) told me [the dollar] was bog-roll
d. You're safe-haven of choice was WHAT at which price?!?!??!

15. Which of the following phrases best describes your feelings about Gold and Silver?

a. Pfwoooor!!!
b. I told so.
c. b-b-b-b-u-t my Guru (and my friends on ZH) told me [Gold and Silver] was the business.
d. You're safe-haven of choice was WHAT?!?!??! at which price??!?!

16. How worried should we be about China?

a. Pfwoooor!!!
b. I told so.
c. b-b-b-b-u-t I've sold all my DM and Bought [China]....
d. You're safe-haven of choice was WHAT?!?!??! at which price??!?!


Leftback said...

17. You email your mates in the business after the close every day, in order to say:

a. F*cked if I know. Lost 10 bps again, like a c*nt.
b. It's fakking pants, innit, this old market?
c. Down the pub in 15 minutes.

tas said...

1) d) No, not selling either.

2) d) No. After my recent tips, I have no friends.

3) No. Macro looks good to me.

4) d) taking some profits on valuation.

5) d) Who the hell knows? Greece is so small that Germany could buy them with lunch money, no?

6) going up is quiet? Yeah, I know the VIX is no longer TREMENDOUSLY elevated. So there's less money to be made in option selling. So?

7) d) A feeling by the market that the chances of large moves has come down. That does lower the price of options, no?

8) Do I look rich?

9) Who's Osborne?

10) d) All of the money in the US is in the hands of the super rich and they can't stand getting only 2% on it.

11) Cheap by any measure. I own 'em, do You? Ditto BRK

12) My favorite question. YOU DID SAY MACRO DIDN'T YOU?

13) Too bad, mates. The best burgers in the world are from In-n-Out. THAT'S what a hamburger's all about.

Nic said...

Try the burgers at Bistro du Vin, 40 St John Street, Clerkenwell Chargrilled juicy heaven.

Anonymous said...

Why would you go to a decent steak place and have the burger?? Especially if you are not paying.

Anonymous said...

Market will go through the 09 lows (inflation adjusted) as the prospect of synchronised global austerity post election year starts to suck, aided by the decline in vol and generically low corp bond yields which are symptoms of risk trading at the offer and not the true bid for capital, together leaving global markets vulnerable to a sudden correction in global imbalances.

As for apple, you are only as good as your next product so the market is pretty rational in pricing the stock cheap. Their last "next product" was damn good so stock went up. If u own it u just taking a punt on some tech thing that the vast majority of people are not able to reach a conclusion on with reasonable basis

Anonymous said...

Ifo: Boom
ISAE: Boom

Happy Monday all!

Leftback said...

Yawn... nothing like unimaginative bear-baiting on a Monday morning. Boom.

This week will be a snoozefest. Durables is a noisy series and we are due for a big bump. GDP is a known known, as Rumsfeld used to say. So the inevitable pile of steaming dogshit US econ data is probably a week or even a month or more away, although the signs of weakness are there, as Rosenberg has been pointing out.

Best thing we can think for now of is shorting the long end for a trade while the B/Ds and European banks are filling their wellies at the short end.... we did this over and over in Spring of 2010 and 2011.

abee crombie said...

everyboday BUY aapl and load up on the gravy train!

will it be the first Trillion dollar stock... I'm waiting for Times or People cover of how it is taking over the world before I short it. I kinda like Nasdaq 3000, 98 right now for appl. I just really dont see how they can continue to keep growing at the current rate far into the future, which is the stock market is supposed to be predicting. Just like China GDP in a sense.. but hey its a good ride up!