Friday, December 02, 2011

HO so no go.

The only thing that has changed from yesterday in our minds is the brain cell count. Caused by C2H5OH poisoning.

and  NFP + HO = Urrgh
hope HO + B + BB + T = Relief  

have a good week end


Anonymous said...

C says'
I prefer a much simpler formula for dealing with HO of all types ..and it works for me

Nic said...

Not staying for the jobs lottery? Estimates have increased so much this week Mr Mkt might be disappointed.
Thanks for great work

Amplitudeinthehouse said...

WELL! its brought out the 12yr old quant in you...thats gotta be a good thing..right?


Anonymous said...

C says'
I've set up short a number of time on equity since as early as April and bight equity just once after our plunge and I've fully hedged that. Hedge is off this morning as i see no short setup imminent and I'd be astounded if anyone took that position before the 9th meeting and after that thinking about the sideline cash and treasury/gilt build up YTD the pain trade on anything remotely market satisfying doesn't bear thinking about.I might be wrong ,but I'd say mean reversion will probably be alive and well in santas bag.

jill said...

Comes from Gary North:

...this was an action preliminary to (1) Angela Merkel's December 2 speech to the German parliament, which is preliminary to (2) the next Eurozone summit, scheduled for the weekend of December 9, which is preliminary to (3) a coordinated violation of the two treaties that created the European Union, which is hoped will (4) pressure the European Central Bank to buy newly created Eurobonds issued illegally by the EU, in order to (5) raise enough euros fast enough to buy Italian government bonds before (6) the Italian government misses interest payments, which may (7) bankrupt the largest French banks, which could (8) trigger a worldwide financial panic.

Anonymous said...

sry, but wots c2h50h?
bbg closest is guar gum?!

Polemic said...

Oh God, get that kitten off the highway!

CV said...

Ah yes, the TMM comments section is not a place for rookies.

Commiserations from one HF office to another TMM. Time to get that pink salt out I would think.


ntwsc said...

Cor my kinda chocolate.

This works well too

Anonymous said...

seriously guys, chemistry was soooo long ago
berocca and a couple pints H20 a better shout than the trendy NaCL i reckon
& this aint no (T)MM rookie, bin reading this since 07 tk u vm


there's the market melting down all the ''HO's'' for today...

lets watch next week

Anonymous said...

TMM, granted anything can happen in light of the events next week, but why do you continue to put any faith in the muppet show. Kermit & Miss Piggy, who wears the pants? Anyway I think we're going to get more wonderful promises which will be broken at some date TBD. My approach is fool me once, fool me four times, but the 5th time!!!! Shame on me.


Polemic said...

C , re the f it way, I ve got the book actually, was recommended to me a friend, but after reading first 10 pages i thought fk it and didn't bother with the rest.

anon 2.52 and/or aka 07 founder member..
yes well the Berocca and Bacon Buttie and flagon of Tea did help with the relief. the best analysis I ever read of hangover cures was in a New Scientist article back in 1998/9 time . I've had difficulty finding it again, but its recommended cocktail of sports drinks, ibuprofen and N acetylcysteine has never been forgotten.

As for the jobless figs ..yes Nic, did hang around but appeared to be something there for everyone , bull or bear. So net effect .. shut up shop for the week and go home.

Jay , yes can see that and if you are able to hold your positions til next summer without any care for short term pain then you are a lucky guy and stick with it. But inteh shorter term we expect policy change to occur and a suitable market response to follow.

Its all about confidence though. ( err ,. yes thats obvious Pol. )

Pol .

Leftback said...

US hired 120k Mall Santas, Reindeers and Elves, and so they didn't show up to claim bennies. Hours worked and incomes doing squat. Merkel and Sarko violating STFU policy.

LB edging back into the tank, heavily armed with US fixed income.

Pol: Rehydrate, replace K+ and suppress inflammation. In the US we favour the lemon-lime Gatorade + Advil. In fact we favor prophylactic ibuprofen when we know that a skinful is in the offing.

Saul Bollox said...

Tosser. Hair of the Dog, innit?

Polemic said...

well Mr bollox you are right there . And that first 10am brandy on ski hols has often been defended with what can be remembered of that article 3 yrs ago - it said that the liver preferentially breaks down ethanol over methanol (varying quantities in all booze) .. and as we all know oxidising ethanol just gives acetic acid (no probs) whereas oxidation of methanol gives Formic acid ( yucky ant bite stuff) so once you done all the ethanol and are on the tailings of methanol then ouuuuuch .. hence .. viola .. drink more ethanol and put the methanol to the back of the queue and feel better !

yeah LB couple of K+ rich bananas chucked in there too this morning

(MM iss going to have to rebrand as AA at this rate)

ntwsc said...

There's nowt like a proper Bloody Mary for that.

Still, a jug of water before you go to bed works a treat - that's if you remember to drink it of course.

Polemic said...

found it

Leftback said...

Reduced risk by another 4% today, to what you could call 50% risk on. But the longs are defensive and backed by 27% US fixed income and 23% cash. No net SPY position. No shorts. We call this our "Dunno, Guv'nor" Position.

Our macro view is we bumble between 1210 and 1270 this month. We would fade any big moves within that range, and the rest of the time we plan to just stay out of trouble. No need to be a hero - at this point we are well ahead of the benchmark.

Evenin' all...

Evenin' all

CV said...

Sorry Anon @ 4.08 PM ... but how would know with all these Anon's crawling this space.

Sooo, LB ducks into the bunker. Yikes! Surely, this week is going to see a fudge rally?