Wednesday, April 06, 2011
So the first thing TMM have done is tattoo their own 2011 Non-Prediction "USDJPY will not be easy" to the back of their hands...! So much for trying to do the reverse of catching a falling knife. AUDJPY started well but has since Edward the Seconded us.
To be honest, TMM are suffering from Bloggers block and are finding it hard to coherently tie all the strands of what is going on together today. Made all the harder as these strands in other markets would be considered bloody great steel hawsers. Though surviving March due to their generally constructive view of US equities, TMM cant decide whether there is a new direction in flow developing or whether we are just seeing independent eddies on a slack tide. Today's data releases form the UK and Switzerland are added twisted swirls in the patterns.
Is the DGDF uprising going to succeed? The DGDF freedom fighters are now being supported by GGUF air cover today and have pushed forward into new territory. We just don’t know if next week will see the pull back but one thing has been noted in the market's rules book: the Dollar is no longer a knee-jerk buy on global stress.
TMM are also seeing that more and more of the metals complex is being assimilated by the China negative real rates Borg - anecdotal stories of gold demand and 10 ton orders in silver are making us think we don't want to step in front of this one. It appears everyone is selling apartments to buy metals. Platinum is also remarkably robust given the weakness in auto demand in China and the interruption to 20% of global demand in Japan. But it isn't just metals, how about this for bubble mania, Stanley Gibbons, the stamp collecting company, has almost run out of Penny Blacks after a Chinese company placed an order for 10,000 of the world's first sticky stamps."We normally sell no more than a hundred penny blacks in any given year so this trade order creates a demand 100 times the normal market size," said Mike Hall, philatelist and Gibbons' chief executive.
TMM are well aware China can stay insane longer than we can stay solvent and we aren't inclined to step in front of the bus...
...and rather than ramble on, will leave today's post at that.